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Wednesday, January 17, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Wipro wonder...can bulls cash on it?

There is no safety in numbers, or in anything else.

The Wipro numbers are here and there is a reason to cheer. But the bulls may find it difficult to take the overall market higher as they are on a consolidation phase after last week's rapid rise. Globally, things are not very encouraging today, though oil prices have cooled off further. Markets across the world are pretty mixed. Our market could open on a cautious note given the weakness in Asia. The trend will remain volatile for a while as the key indices are trading in unchartered territories. Though the sentiment remains upbeat over the medium to long term, one has to be careful in the near term.

Wipro's Q3 net profit was up over 9% QoQ at Rs7.65bn (Rs7bn). Total Revenues are up 12% QoQ at Rs39.79bn (Rs35.46bn). Global IT Revenues were Rs28.76bn ($645.5mn). The company sees Q4 Global IT Revenues at $685mn.

Other Results Today: 3i Infotech, Alembic, Lupin, NIIT Tech, Sutlej Textiles, Alps Industries, Infotech Enterprises, Kirloskar Oil Engines, NDTV,

FIIs were net buyers at Rs1.9bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment, they were net buyers of Rs2.18bn. On Monday, foreign funds pulled out stocks worth Rs2.39bn from the cash segment. On the other hand, Mutual Funds pumped in Rs1.04bn on the same day.

The IPO of Akruti Nirman was subscribed 1.6 times while that of Global Broadcast News was subscribed nearly 1 times. The House of Pearl issue got a very lukewarm response, with subscription amounting to just 0.08 times.

US shares closed mixed on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at a record high for the third straight session, following a steep drop in oil prices, but the Nasdaq Composite declined, as investors bailed out of select technology shares.

The Dow was up 26.51 points at 12,582.59 while the Nasdaq was down 5.04 points at 2,497.78 and the S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged at 1,431.90.

After the close, Intel reported quarterly earnings of 26 cents per share, down from 40 cents a year earlier but a penny more than consensus estimates. Shares of the chip giant fell sharply in extended-hours trading.

US light crude for February delivery declined $1.78 to $51.21 a barrel in New York. Prices fell after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said that OPEC production cuts were effective and there was no need for an emergency meeting of the oil cartel. The contract was up 14 cents at $51.35 in extended trading in Asia.

COMEX gold fell $1 to settle at $625.90 an ounce. Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.75% from 4.77% late on Friday. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the yen and euro.

Among the Indian ADRs, Patni was down 1%; VSNL surged by 8.3%, Infy dropped 1.2%, Wipro added 1.5%, Satyam rose 2.2%, Tata Motors advanced 3.2%, ICICI Bank shed 1.7% and MTNL slumped 3%.

European shares ended lower. The London-based FTSE 100 closed down 0.8% at 6,215.70. The German DAX Xetra 30 slipped 0.2% to 6,716.82 while the French CAC-40 eased 0.7% to 5,591.54. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index lost 0.6% to 371.97.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was down 0.7% at 42,624 while the IPC index in Mexico was flat at 26,480 and the RTS index in Russia was up 0.08% at 1851.

Asian stocks fell on Wednesday after LG.Philips LCD and Samsung SDI reported losses and Intel said that fourth-quarter profit slumped from a year ago. Samsung Electronics and Elpida Memory paced the declines.

In Japan, Mizuho Financial Group led a drop among banks after the Nikkei newspaper and Kyodo News said that the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising interest rates tomorrow. BHP Billiton and PetroChina fell after oil and copper prices declined.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost 0.6% to 139.19 at 11:25 a.m. in Tokyo, set for the biggest slide since Jan. 10. Stock benchmarks also slid in South Korea, Hong Kong, Australia and the Philippines. They rose elsewhere in the region.

Japan's Nikkei fell 124 points to 17,078.12 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 33 points to 19,994. The Kospi in Seoul slipped 17 points to 1372 and the Straits Times in Singapore added 4 points at 3042.

Investors continued to favor emerging markets in their early 2007 asset allocation decisions in the second week of January, pouring another $2.1bn into EPFR-tracked emerging markets equity and bond funds that had received $2.3bn during the first week of the New Year, says EmergingPortfolio Fund Research (EPFR).

But some of those returns evaporated as lower commodity prices and unwelcome news from several major markets triggered a broad correction that trimmed 5% off the value of the average emerging market equity fund’s portfolio, EPFR adds. Emerging market bond funds returned -0.6% for the week.

Insider Trades:
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Limited: HDFC Trustee Company Limited A/c - HDFC Prudence Fund has purchased from open market 508220 equity shares of GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Limited on 8th January, 2007.

Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was down by 1.6% to Rs83.43bn. BSE Metal index was the major loser and lost 1.17%. BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.68%), BSE PSU index (down 0.34%) and BSE FMCG index (up 0.32%) were among the other major losers. However, BSE Capital Good index gained 1.02%.

Volume Toppers:
IFCI, IDBI, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Aftek Ltd, SAIL, Ispat Industries, TTML, DCB, IDFC, Cairn India, Polaris, India Cements, Prism Cement, R Com, Indiabulls, HLL, ITC and Vijaya Bank.

Upper Circuit Filters:
Flex Industries, Prism Cement, Texmaco, Heritage Food, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Tanla, HOV Services, Rajesh Exports, BPL Ltd, Crest Animation, Ganesh Housing, KS Oils and Nirlon.

Delivery Delight:
3i Infotech, Arvind Mills, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel, BRFL, Century Textiles, CESC, Era Constructions, Gateway Distriparks, Grasim, ICICI Bank, India Cements, Infotech Enterprises, Jaiprakash Associates, Kesoram, M&M, Mercator Lines, Patni Computer, Polaris, Strides Arcolab and Wipro.

Brokers Recommendations:
TCS - Buy from Man Financial with target of Rs1499
IPCL - Buy from Enam Securities with target of Rs375.

Long Term Investment:
Bata India

Major News Headlines:
i-flex bags FLEXCUBE order from US bank
Pantaloon unit buys Internet company Officedge
Patel Engineering Q3 profit at Rs294.6mn (up 16%), revenue at Rs2.84bn (up 21.7%)
Mahindra to build new factory for CVs
Bajaj Auto Q3 profit at Rs3.45bn (up 23%), sales at Rs25.68bn (up 27%)
BPCL to sell shares in Bina refinery, to raise Rs10bn through IPO
Govt issues export permits for 37,000 tons of sugar
Aztecsoft Q3 profit at Rs111.5mn (up 12%) sales at Rs713.4mn (up 35%)
Indoco Remedies to consider buying SPA Pharma's drug business