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Friday, January 19, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Fear is better than greed for now

One of the weaknesses of our age is our apparent inability to distinguish our needs from our greed.

The greed in recent times may have given a backseat to fear. After the turn of IT heavyweights, Reliance Industries has got into action by posting an impressive 58% growth in its Q3 net profit. Apart from RIL, other Index Majors like Ranbaxy, REL, have also announced strong quarter growth, which would power the bulls forward. Notwithstanding Thursday's sudden and sharp fall and recovery from day's low, stay cautious as we expect a cool off. Among the prominent results to watch out for are Satyam, i-flex and Jet Airways.

Pyramid Saimira Theatre could see action as we hear the company may announce some alliance with a Korean firm next week. Market buzz is that Lakshmi Niwas Mittal may take some stake in a refinery project of HPCL.

The Nasdaq fell yesterday for a second straight session following Apple's poor earnings forecast. The Nasdaq was down 36.21 points at 2,443.21, down nearly 1.5%. The Dow Jones was down 9.22 points at 12,567.93.

Crude oil slipped 3.4% to $50.48 a barrel in New York yesterday. Futures earlier fell as low as $49.90, the lowest intraday price since May 25, 2005. February crude was trading at $50.34, down 14 cents from the New York close.

After the close, IBM reported quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates. However, shares slumped in after-hours trading. Additionally, GE confirmed it will buy two diagnostic units from Abbott Labs for $8.13bn.

Treasury prices climbed, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.74% from 4.78% late on Wednesday. In currency trading, the dollar hit a nearly four-year high versus the yen after the Bank of Japan opted to hold interest rates steady, but the greenback slipped against the euro. COMEX gold for February delivery fell $5.20 to settle at $628.10 an ounce.

Among the Indian ADRs, VSNL was up 1.9%, Infy was down 2.3%, Wipro shed 3%, Satyam dipped 2.25%, HDFC Bank slid 2.6%, ICICI Bank gave up 1.6% and MTNL slumped 1.8%.

Select Asian markets like Japan and Korea are down this morning. The Nikkei was down 92 points at 17,278 92 while the Kospi in Seoul dropped 23 points at 1359. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the Straits Times in Singapore were trading near the breakeven point.

European shares finished mixed. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index closed a fraction of a percentage point lower at 371.58. The CAC-40 lost 0.1% to 5,555.04 and the German DAX Xetra 30 declined 0.1% to 6,689.62. The UK-based FTSE 100 rose 0.1% at 6,210.30.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was down 0.6% at 42,477 while the IPC index in Mexico dived 1.7% to 26,112 and the RTS index in Russia declined 0.2% to 1807.

Results Today:
BILT, Dabur, Dena Bank, Granules India, Marico, IDFC, PTC India, Sonata Software, Texmaco, Wyeth, Deccan Chronicle, GNFC, Hindustan Construction, ING Vysya Bank, Jain Irrigation, NIIT, Orchid Chem, Raymond, Shringar Cinema, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra), Zensar Tech.

Insider Trades:
Eveready Industries India Limited: HDFC Mutual Fund has purchased from open market 1538237 equity shares of Eveready Industries India Limited on 8th January, 2007.

Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was up by 16% to Rs101.7bn. The Oil & Gas index was the major gainer and gained 1.62%. BSE PSU index (up 1.28%), BSE FMCG index (up 1.13%) and BSE Capital Good index (up 0.61%) were among the other major gainers. However, BSE Consumer Durable index lost 1.86%.

Volume Toppers:
IFCI, DCB, IDBI, SAIL, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Ashok Leyland, Cairn India, ITC, IDFC, Aftek, Wire & Wireless, Welspun Gujarat, Dabur, Exide Industries, Satyam Computer and Reliance Industries.

Upper Circuit Filters:
Amara Raja, Texmaco, Zandu Pharma, Goldiam International, NIIT Technologies, DS Kulkarni, Ganesh Housing and Suven Life.

Delivery Delight:
Adlabs Films, Ahmednagar Forgings, ACC, Bank of India, BHEL, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Entertainment Network India Ltd, Glenmark, HCL Technologies, HPCL, ING Vysya Bank, Jet Airways, Kesoram Industries, L&T, Patel Engineering, Prithvi, Reliance Industries Ltd, Satyam, SBI, Sun TV, Taneja Aerospace, TCS and VSNL.

Brokers Recommendations:
Jubilant Organosys - Buy from Citigroup with target of Rs368
NIIT Tech - Buy from Man Financial with target of Rs492

Long Term Investment:
Punj Lloyd

Major News Headlines:
Reliance Q3 profit at Rs27.99bn (up 57.6%), total income (net of excise) is up 44.5% at Rs265.14bn
REL Q1 net at Rs2.01bn (up 22%), revenue at Rs18.2bn (up 60%)
Bharti Airtel gets offer to provide phone services in Sri Lanka
Siemens India Q1 profit at Rs980.7mn (up 100%), sales at Rs16.27bn (up 91%)
ONGC makes major discovery in Mahanadi
Tech Mahindra Q3 profit at Rs1.67bn (up 122%), revenues at Rs7.7bn (up 131%)
Tech Mahindra agrees to buy iPolicy Networks
Kirloskar Bros Board declares interim dividend of Rs2
Subex Azure to buy Syndesis
Nicholas Piramal Q3 profit at Rs433mn (up 81%), sales at Rs4.08bn (up 14%)
Chambal Fertilizers Q3 profit at Rs701.3mn (down 9.9%), sales at Rs7.92bn (down 25%)
Pantaloon Retail forms JV with Staples
Dollex Industries to set up Rs200mn Ethanol plant
TCS says no plans to merge CMC with itself
Biocon licenses its cancer drug to Ferozsons for Pakistan sale
Sobha Developers wins Rs150mn contract from Gold Plus Glass Industry
OCL India approves demerger of Sponge Iron and Real Estate businesses
Elecon Engineering signs MoU with Gujarat Govt for investing Rs4bn