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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Swinging Tuesday in store

When the doors of opportunity swing open, we must make sure that we are not too drunk or too indifferent to walk through.

The success or failure in the market may have intoxicated minds and caused a sense of dizziness, similar to how the indices are feeling. Today, we expect a circumspect opening, given the mixed trend in global markets. Thereafter, the market is likely to turn volatile again. Any dip could open an opportunity to invest for the medium to long term. So ensure that you don't miss the opportunity to book profits at higher levels are take position at relatively lower levels.

Despite the slowdown in FII inflows of late, the market has managed to stay firm, though there has been a lot of intra-day volatility. The choppiness is likely to continue ahead of the F&O expiry on Thursday. The undertone remains mostly positive though, spurred by the strong show by India Inc. in the latest quarter. Stability in global markets, coupled with lower oil prices has also lent good support. Valuations still remain a major cause for worry, especially for the large caps. Select small- and mid-cap shares have done well in the recent past, and may build on those gains as investors switch focus from frontline scrips.

Though the F&O rollover has not been that strong, it is likely to pick up pace soon. Already, players have started to cover their short positions in the derivative segment, and more could be in the offing.

Sun Pharma could gain. It's US subsidiary, Caraco Pharma has won a patent infringement suit against Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical. Champagne Indage may rise amid reports that it has bought a company in Australia. Maruti could attract some attention as the company is launching a diesel version of the Swift hatchback this week. Unitech is likely to advance after a financial daily reported that it will tie up with Goldman Sachs to set up a Special Purpose Vehicle to invest in the real estate sector. JSW Steel, which has announced good results, might gain as its subsidiary is likely to acquire a mining company in Indonesia. Suzlon will be in the limelight. The company is likely to bag orders worth Rs9bn, says a business newspaper.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs2.18bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment too, they pumped in Rs2.53bn. On Friday, foreign funds were net buyers at Rs768mn. Mutual Funds, however pulled out Rs4.02bn from the cash segment on the same day.

Major Bulk Deals: UBS has bought Pyramid Saimira; SBI MF has picked up RPG Transmission.

Results Today:
SBI, Tata Motors, UB, ABG Shipyard, Adlabs, BEML, Bharti Airtel, BEL, Ceat, Cipla, Dabur Pharma, DS Kulkarni, Educomp, Gitanjali Gems, Glenmark, Grasim, GTL, India Infoline, Indian Hotels, IPCA, Kesoram, Mangalam Cement, Mahindra Gesco, Neyveli Lignite, Nitco Tiles and Opto Circuits.

US stocks closed lower on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 88.37 points at 12,477.16 while the broader S&P 500 dropped 7.55 points to 1,422.95, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 20.24 points to 2,431.07.

Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.76% from 4.77% late on Friday. The dollar gained versus the yen and euro. COMEX gold fell $2.30 to settle at $634.10 an ounce.

Crude oil prices zigzagged, initially tracking a surge in natural gas amid forecasts for below-average temperatures across much of the US and then gave up gains ahead of the expiration of the front-month contract. January crude futures finished down 86 cents at $51.13 a barrel. The February contract was quoting 13 cents lower at $52.45 in extended trading in Asia.

European stocks couldn't hold on to early gains. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index closed 0.4% lower at 372.80 after touching multi-year highs earlier in the session. The UK's FTSE 100 closed 0.3% lower at 6,218.40, the French CAC-40 dropped 0.6% to 5,579.78 and the German DAX Xetra 30 dived 0.9% to 6,687.31.

Asian stocks were down this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo fell 36 points to 17,387 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shed 93 points to 20,679. The Kospi in Seoul was flat at 1363 and the Straits Times in Singapore declined 12 points to 3132. In Emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil gained 0.3% to 43,553 and the RTS index in Russia jumped 1.6% to 1841.

Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was down by 16.3% to Rs75.74bn.BSE FMCG index was the major gainers and gained 1.32%. BSE Consumer Durable index (up 0.94%), BSE Auto index (up 0.55%) and BSE Technology index (up 0.49%) were among the other major gainers. However, BSE Oil & Gas index lost 0.51%.

Volume Toppers:
IFCI, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, SAIL, Satyam Computer, DCB, ITC, Hindustan Motors, Ispat Industries, IDFC, Ashok Leyland, India Cements, Polaris, R Com, Ceat, HCC and Tech Mahindra.

Upper Circuit Filters:
Crisil, Flex Industries, Heritage Foods, HOV Services, Nesco Ltd, Ganesh Housing and Suven Life.

Delivery Delight:
Adlabs Films, ACC, Bank of India, BHEL, BRFL, CEAT, Gammon India, Glenmark, HCL Technologies, India Infoline, ING Vysya Bank, INOX Leisure, J B Chemicals, Jet Airways, Maruti, Nagarjuna Construction, NDTV, Pratibha Industries, Punjab National Bank, Suzlon Energy, Taneja Aerospace, Tata Motors, Tata Power, VSNL and Zee Telefilms.

Brokers Recommendations:
Suzlon Energy - Buy from Merrill Lynch with target of Rs1650
Bharti Shipyard – Buy from Emkay with target of Rs554

Long Term Investment:
IVRCL Infrastructures.

Major News Headlines:
Maruti Q3 profit at Rs3.76bn (up 11%), sales at Rs38.64bn (up 18%)
Nalco Q3 profit at Rs5.72bn (up 46%), sales 14.48bn (up 9.3%)
RIL says has no plans to spin off KG basin oil and gas fields
Pratibha Industries gets Rs1.22bn AAI order
Welspun Gujarat wins orders worth Rs10.5bn
Kale Consultants gets order from Yemenia Airlines
Adlabs completes purchase of Synergy Communications
Colgate Q3 profit at Rs503.4mn (up 21%); revenues at Rs3.39bn (up 14%)
Kotak Mahindra Bank Q3 profit at Rs454mn (up 39%), income at Rs4.53bn (up 96%)
JSW Steel Q3 profit at Rs3.62bn (up 160%), sales at Rs23bn (up 160%)
India Cements Q3 profit at Rs797.8mn vs Rs72.2mn; total income at Rs4.74bn (up 35%)