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Thursday, January 25, 2007

Volatility may remain high ahead of derivatives expiry


Volatility may remain high ahead of today’s expiry of January 2007 derivatives contracts. But volumes may be low due to a slew of holidays. The market remains closed on Friday (26 January) on account of Republic Day and again on next Tuesday (30 January) on account of Moharram.

The rollover in Nifty futures has been about 47% and in individual stock futures at about 55% to 60% according to a derivatives dealer with a local brokerage.

As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 159 crore on Wednesday 24 January, the day when Sensex had risen 69 points. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 194 crore in index-based futures on 24 January. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 255 crore individual stock futures on that day.

The major Q3 results today are Bhel and Hindalco. The Q3 results announced so far were good. The season is in its last lap and the focus will shift to the Union Budget 2007-08 and related expectations. The RBI meeting for monetary policy is on 31 January 2007. With inflation surging to a two-year high of over 6%, the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates.

Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.3 percent at the midsession, after hitting its highest level since July 2000.

US stocks rose sharply on Wednesday, driving the Dow Jones industrial average to a record high, after profit reports from Yahoo Inc. and Sun Microsystems Inc. renewed optimism about tech company profits. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 87.97 points, or 0.70 percent, at 12,621.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 12.14 points, or 0.85 percent, at 1,440.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 34.87 points, or 1.43 percent, at 2,466.28.

The Dow hit an all-time intraday high of 12,623.45 and recorded its first-ever close over 12,600. The S&P 500 rose to its highest close since September 2000 and recorded its best one-day percentage gain in a month.

Oil gave up some of the previous day's gains but held above $55 a barrel, as US plans to boost strategic reserves and colder weather in the northeastern United States, the world's top heating oil market, offset swelling crude stockpiles. NYMEX crude for March delivery eased 13 cents, or around a quarter of a percent, to $55.24 a barrel.