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Friday, March 30, 2007

MARKET MOOD


The struggle continues

Never forget the blood sweat and tears
The uphill struggle over years…

The struggle continued for the bulls even in a truncated trading week. After making a smart comeback last week, we are back in the red thanks to a big fall on Wednesday. However, the bulls did manage to rebound in the last two trading sessions on the back of short covering in the F&O segment. FII inflows too seem to be picking up of late, aiding the rally from the crash in February. After a ferocious February, which saw bulls massacred on Dalal Street, the benchmark BSE Sensex managed to gain 1% from last month. However, on a quarterly basis, the index is down 5.2%, registering its first decline in three quarters.

The rescue act of over last two days failed to help the bulls, from losses sustained at the start of the week caused by global worries. Steep rise in crude oil prices and fears of slowdown in the US had its ill-effects on Dalal Street. US light crude for May delivery jumped to $68.91 a barrel in electronic trading on the back of rising tension between Iran and the UK over the detention of British sailors by Tehran last week. Also, statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke contributed to the woes.

The Sensex lost 214 points or 1.61% on the week to close at 13,072 and the NSE Nifty fell by 40 points or 1.02% to shut shop at 3822. Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, TCS and Infosys were among the major losers. Banking, Auto and IT stocks fell sharply. While Pharma, FMCG and select Mid-Cap stocks bucked the negative trend and closed higher.

Sugar stocks were back in action after a long time following the announcement of a relief package by the Government. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the Government will build a sugar buffer and provide export incentives to mills to quell the domestic glut amid expectations of a bumper crop this year. Sugar stocks were the star performers of the week. Sakthi Sugar soared 61% in the week to Rs100, Renuka Sugar rose by a whopping 22% to Rs467, Bajaj Hindusthan rallied by over 14% to Rs195 and Balrampur Chini added 7.6% to Rs66.

FMCG stocks also gained momentum. HLL rose over 4% to Rs205, Britannia advanced 1.2% to Rs1254, Colgate gained 1.8% to Rs332 and Nestle added 1.2% to Rs934.

Pharma stocks were back in the reckoning after being under performing the key indices. Dr Reddy's was up over 6.5% to Rs727 and Ranbaxy advanced by nearly by 6% to Rs352. Others like Aurobindo Pharma jumped by over 11% to Rs679. Pfizer rallied by 10% to Rs796 and Wockhardt gained 4.6% to Rs397.

Rising crude oil prices hurt auto stocks. Tata Motors fell by over 9% to Rs727, the scrip also was the top loser, Bajaj Auto fell by over 5.5% to Rs2425, Maruti was down 1.3% to Rs819 and TVS Motors lost 5% to Rs59.

Volatility in the rupee added to the concerns of IT companies. Also, a weak consumer confidence report in the US heightened worries about a slowdown in the world's largest economy. Wipro lost over 6% to Rs558, TCS declined by over 5.5% to Rs1231 and Infosys fell 5% to Rs2012. Patni was down 2.8% to Rs386, HCL Tech fell 1.8% to Rs291 and FT declined 1.5% to Rs1827.