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Tuesday, April 17, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Heat is on, but cooling likely

Ability will never catch up with the demand for it.

The bears are sweating and getting dehydrated as the bulls have turned the heat on them. Another sunny day on the bourses is more than welcome but the fear of an unexpected meltdown still haunts investors. For the day, indicators from the global markets are mixed. We could see the indices slipping into the red for one sole reason...PROFIT BOOKING.

FII inflows have improved of late but having said that one should remain cautious as some cooling is not ruled out at higher levels. Results will continue to be the focus of attention at least for this month. After that it will be once again inflation, interest rates, monsoon and the economy.

With the rupee crossing the 42 levels and nearing a nine-year high, IT shares may remain in focus. TCS has come out with its Q4 and FY07 results that are more or less in line with expectations. The company is also bullish going ahead despite the currency fluctuations and simmering talk of a slowdown in the US. It is sufficiently hedged with a forward cover of $1bn at 43.50-44.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.08bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment they were net buyers of Rs18.41bn.

US stocks rallied overnight on the back of strong earnings from Citigroup, M&As and encouraging data on retail sales. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index surged to its highest in more than six years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased losses from the Feb. 27 global sell-off.

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan also added to positive sentiment by downplaying the risk problems in subprime mortgages pose to the US economy.

The S&P 500 added 15.62, or 1.1%, to 1468.47, its highest since September 2000. The Dow rose 108.33, or 0.9%, to 12,720.46. The 30-stock benchmark is 0.5% shy of matching its record close set Feb. 20. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 26.39, or 1.1%, to 2518.33, its highest since Feb. 22.

US light crude oil for May edged higher, gaining 27 cents to settle at $63.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was quoting at $63.60 per barrel in extended trading in Asia.

Treasury prices rose, taking the yield on the 10-year note to 4.73% from 4.76% late on Friday. COMEX gold for June delivery rose $4.60 to 694.50. In currency trading, the dollar fell against the euro and rose against the yen.

European shares rose to fresh multi-year highs. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 1.2% to 387.72 - a level not seen since November 2000. The German DAX Xetra 30 added 1.8% to 7,338.06 and the French CAC-40 advanced 1.3% to 5,861.97. The UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.8% to 6,516.20.

Asian markets have slipped into the red after being higher early in the morning. Key indices in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul and Singapore are all in the red, but only marginally.

Latin American markets closed mixed. Stock benchmark in Brazil was up over 2% at 48,921.21, its third record closing in a row. Mexican stocks slipped amid a downgrade of the market by Citigroup. Mexico's IPC slipped 0.2% to close at 29,718.66, taking a breather from its recent run of record closings.

HOW MARKET FARED

Profit booking likely

The markets had a spectacular rally today as bulls marched ahead with full force. The blue chip stocks led from front with ACC, Tisco, HLL, ITC, ONGC and Reliance Industries being the major gainers. Strong global cues boosted the key indices at open from there on upward trend prolonged as all round buying was witnessed on the bourses. Recently listed scrip’s were in the limelight as ICRA, Blue Bird and Abhishek Mills all surged over 10% each. Suzlon was also the star performer as the scrip rose over 7%.

Oil exploration major Reliance Industries was also on a run hitting its all time high. The Mid-Cap and small cap stocks also participated in the rally. The Cement, telecom, FMCG and Oil & Gas indexes were among the major gainers. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex rallied 311 points to close at 13695. NSE Nifty also surged 96 points to close at 4013.

Oil exploration major ONGC spurred by over 3% to Rs900 after the company would spend Rs180bn on exploration. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs903 and a low of Rs875 and has recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on NSE.

Punj Lloyd surged by over 8% to Rs180 after the company announced that they have secured contract valued at Rs5.30bn for construction of pipeline from OGC (Oman Gas Company) on EPC basis in Oman. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs182 and a low of Rs168 and recorded volumes of over 21,00,000 shares on NSE.

SUN TV surged by over 3.5% to Rs1716 after the company announced that they would consider bonus issue on 24Th April. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1734 and a low of Rs1621 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Welspun Gujarat gained 1.2% to Rs125 after the company secured orders worth Rs10.89bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs132 and a low of Rs125 and recorded volumes of over 23,00,000 shares on NSE.

Bharti Shipyard edged higher by 0.2% to Rs387 after the company announced that they have purchased Machinery and equipment of Swan Hunter. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs398 and a low of Rs363 and recorded volumes of over 51,000 shares on NSE.

Auto stocks were in top gear. Tata Motors advanced 3.3% to Rs750, M&M gained 2.4% to Rs763, Maruti was up by 0.8% to Rs778, Bajaj Auto added 2.2% to Rs2487 and LML was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs12.65 after the company announced that a year-long strike at its Kanpur factory is over after it signed an agreement with the workers. The lockout was lifted on April 15 and the operations will resume shortly

Banking stocks also recorded smart gains. Mid-Cap stocks led from front Canara Bank surged by over 4% to Rs204, PNB advanced by 2.5% to Rs468, Corp Bank gained by 2.9% to Rs290. ICICI Bank, SBI and HDFC Bank were the major gainers among the heavy weights.

FMCG stocks also ended with smart gains. Tata Tea surged by over 3.5% to Rs664, ITC advanced by 3.2% to Rs163, HLL gained 3.4% to Rs213, others like Britannia, McDowell and Nirma are also witnessing uptrend.

Telecom stocks also rang with gains. R Com spurred by over 4% to Rs438, Bharti Airtel advanced 2.7% to Rs802, VSNL gained 3.1% to Rs434 and MTNL added 2.1% to Rs161.

Insider Trades:

Bharati Shipyard Limited: Reliance Regular Savings Fund - Schemes of Reliance Mutual Fund has purchased from open market 40000 equity shares of Bharati Shipyard Limited on 11th April, 2007.

Market Volumes:

The turnover on NSE was down by 8% to Rs89.5bn. BSE Oil & Gas index was the major gainer and gained 3.11%. BSE Capital Good index (up 2.90%), BSE Metal index (up 2.76%), BSE FMCG index (up 2.62%) and BSE Technology index (up 2.16%) were among the other major gainers.

Volume Toppers:

TTML, Orbit, Idea, SAIL, Tata Steel, Satyam Computer, Yes Bank, IDBI, ICRA, R Com, Indiabulls, ITC, Balrampur Chini, Ashok Leyland, India Cement, MTNL and Bajaj Hindusthan.

Upper Circuit:

Ansal Infrastructure, Crisil, Avaya Global, Classic Diamond, Nilkamal, Marksans, Crest Animation, Nuclues Software, Goldstone Technology, Tanla, Goderej Industries, Accel Frontline, Country Club, Gayatri Project, Dhanlakshmi Bank, KS Oils, HOV Services, IOL Broadband and Atlanta.

Results Today:

HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, Supreme Inds and UTI Bank.

Delivery Delight:

Bajaj Auto, Bharat Forge, BHEL, Bharti Airtel, Bombay Dyeing, CEAT, Gateway Distriparks, Gujarat Alkalies, HCC, I-Flex Solutions, IDBI, Jaiprakash Associates, ONGC, Orchid Chemicals, Sterlite Industries, Tata Motors, Titan and VSNL.

Abnormal Delivery:

GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Bank of Baroda, State Bank of India, Dr Reddy's, HCL Tech, Ashok Leyland and Indian Hotels.

Stock Futures with Largest Increases in OI:

BEML, Bajaj Hind, Siemens, IDEA, Lupin, Patni, Balram[ur Chini, Indian Hotels and Indian Bank.

Stock Futures with Largest Decreases in OI:

Crompton Greaves, Zee Tele, Sobha, Canara bank, VSNL, IFCI, Voltas, Glaxo, Nicholas Piramal and ITC.

Brokers Recommendations:

Bharti Shipyard - Buy from Citigroup with target of Rs525.

Gayatri Projects - Outperformer from Prabhudas Liladher with target of Rs343.

Long Term investment:

Bharti Airtel

Major News Headlines:

TCS Q4 net at Rs11.95bn (up 8.2%) QoQ, sales at Rs51.62bn

Punj Lloyd to construct pipeline for Oman Gas Company of Rs5.3bn

ONGC to spend Rs180bn this fiscal year on exploration

Jet to raise $400mn selling shares and to begin Cargo Airline this year

FT to pay dividend of Rs3.6 per share

Sun TV Board to consider bonus issue on April 24

Bharti Shipyard buys Machinery, equipment of Swan Hunter

Goldstone Tech signs agreement with Asia Today Ltd, Mauritius

Micro Tech to expand its operations in Middle East

Teledata Info to spend Rs2.5bn for setting up PC manufacturing unit at Baddi.