Weekly Technical Analysis

The amazing bull-run continued for yet another week, with the benchmark BSE index, Sensex, gaining over 727 points last week. During the week, the index logged its fastest-ever 1,000-point gain, that is, in five trading days, the index moved up from 16,000 to 17,000.

The index touched a new all-time intra-day high of 17,361 on Friday. The Sensex was up 727 points at 17,291 for the week, and nearly 13% (1,973 points) up for the month.

The Sensex has gained a whopping 22.3% (3,150 points) in the last six weeks. While Reliance and select banking counters continued to lead the rally, beaten-down technology stocks, too, surged in the latter half of the week.

Currently, the Sensex is in unchartered territory and the upmove will continue as long as the index stays above the 15,800-16,000 band.

However, the index is now in overbought zone and hence the chances of a short-term pause or decline are on the higher side. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 73, a RSI of above 70 is overbought, while a RSI of less than 30 is oversold.

This week, the index may face resistance around 17,580-17,670-17,760, while on the downside the index is likely to find support around 17,000-16,820-16,820. The NSE Nifty, too, was not to be left far behind. The index crossed a major landmark of 5000 during the week.

The Nifty touched a life-time high of 5056, and finally ended the week with a gain of 184 points at 5021. The index gained 12.5% (557 points) in September.

The Nifty is likely to face resistance around 5105-5130-5155, while on the downside the index may find support around 4935-4910-4885.