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Friday, September 28, 2007

Where have the bears gone?


The rollover in the F&O segment indicates fresh optimism is in. Shorts have been squared off and fresh longs created. The sentiment is definitely upbeat.
One issue that was on everyone's mind was the whether the credit crisis in the developed economies would affect liquidity inflows into the emerging markets. Once the US-Federal Reserve came to the rescue, that issue was settled. Money has kept pouring in. Overseas investors have already invested around $11 billion this year. The earlier annual record was $10.7 billion in 2005.

There is an increased perception among foreign investors that India is safer than other fast growing economies, as the growth here is more sustainable.

In fact, this was the fastest 1,000 point rally. And even though concerns remain that the market is expensive at current levels, the liquidity factor will sustain these levels, at least in the short term.

In retrospect, one remembers the slowest 1,000 point rally. It took place during 1992 and 1999 when the index crawled from 4,000 to 5,000.

Value goes up
Cashing in on the popularity of Team 20, Dhoni's brand value, which was pegged at Rs 1 crore is now probably Rs 3 crore.

But the euphoria was not restricted to the field. RIL Chairman, Mukesh Ambani, became the richest Indian with a net worth of Rs 2 trillion as the booming stock market pushed the value of his shareholding in various group firms. Ambani's net worth has soared past $50 billion, making him the first Indian and only the fourth person in the world to have a wealth higher than this amount.

RBI blues
Meanwhile, the influx of money has sent the rupee to a 9-year high of Rs 39.62 against the dollar. Exporters are feeling the pinch and certainly not joining the celebrations.

The RBI meanwhile is trying its best to keep the rupee from appreciating further and came out with various measures easing overseas investment and loan repayment.

On the other fronts….
India, the world's fastest growing cell phone market, ended August with 201.3 million wireless users after 8.31 million accounts were added in August. The earlier additions were 7.34 million (June) and 8.06 million (July).

India's fuel consumption grew 3.5% in August and crude imports soared 9.7% as refiners imported more crude to export processed products. Import of petroleum products dipped 5.6% while exports saw a 7.8% growth.

Still needs work on this front
A World Bank report on the ease of doing business in various countries has ranked India higher than earlier. In a ranking of 178 countries, India moved up to 120 (up 12 notches). Among the 10 areas tracked are regulations involved in starting businesses, obtaining licenses, registering property, getting credit, paying taxes and closing businesses. Despite getting a higher ranking than last year, India needs to do better on this front.

On the corruption front, India did not do too well. The Corruption Perception Index (CPI) released globally ranks countries on a scale of 0 (highest level of corruption) to 10 (no corruption). Last year, India scored 3.3 and this year, 3.5.

Guess some things don't change easily, despite India shining on certain fronts