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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Bounce at start, choppiness later


Life is not about how fast you run, or how high you climb, but how well you bounce.

The runaway bulls will return and drag in many others with them. SEBI's clarifications, global cues et al, will ensure a healthy start. Expect high volatility thereafter. With the market regulator SEBI going out of its way to convince investors that the proposed move to restrict foreign capital inflows through P-Notes is positive in the long run, the market may bounce back further. In a video conference with leading FIIs yesterday, SEBI said that proprietary sub-accounts of FIIs can issue P-Notes till they are officially registered with it. These sub-accounts should inform SEBI about their intention to register today and send applications within a week. The market regulator said it cleared 16 FII applications yesterday. Corporate sub-accounts will not be entertained though. SEBI chief M. Damodaran also said that he may allow more than one entity of a single FII to register with it. These are the key takeaways from yesterday's conference call and should cheer up the market this morning.

What's more, a newspaper report suggest that SEBI will take a full review of rules and regulations with regard to FII investments at its Board meeting on Thursday. SEBI is likely to consider permitting more category of overseas investors to register, including unregulated but key entities like pension funds. It could also review the definition of sub-accounts as part of the exercise aimed at allowing all category of foreign investors to come into the Indian market. As a result, we expect the undertone to improve and the bulls to regain control of the market. In addition, global markets rebounded overnight, led by US shares. Most Asian markets are trading firm this morning. And, oil prices have cooled off little, though they still remain quite high around $87 per barrel. The market should open higher, but the anxiety over the SEBI meet and F&O expiry on Thursday will lead to increased volatility.

There is now also talk that the RBI may soften its stance on the monetary policy on Oct. 30 and could leave key short-term rates unchanged. Still, there is a chance that it may go for another CRR hike to absorb excess liquidity. Plus, the market will have to watch out for the Fed meet on Oct 31.

Adhunik Metaliks' Board will meet on October 30, to consider issue of equity shares and Fully Convertible Debentures on a preferential basis to FII / FI and other selected investors. It will also consider issue of warrants to promoters, besides increasing the FII investment limit.

SpiceJet has signed an agreement with Air India for the wet lease of two Boeing 737-800 aircraft, for operating daily flights between Lucknow, Varanasi, Jaipur and Nagpur and Jeddah. The company will operate around 120 flights and will carry around 20,000 Haj pilgrims.

Rajesh Exports has announced 2 for 1 bonus issue and stock split from Rs2 to Re1.

US technology shares rallied on Monday, lifting the broader market at the end of a choppy session, as worries about the state of the economy continued to overshadow some upbeat corporate earnings and lower oil prices.

US stocks rose for the first time in three days after Bear Stearns got a $1bn investment from China and investors speculated technology companies will report better-than-forecast earnings.

Apple climbed to a record before reporting earnings that exceeded analysts' estimates. Merck advanced the most in three months after the No.3 US drug maker reported profit that topped projections.

About nine stocks gained for every five that fell on the New York Stock Exchange as US markets overcame a 115-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and losses in Europe and Asia.

The S&P 500 Index added 6 points, or 0.4%, to 1,506.33. The benchmark was down 3.9% last week, the most since August. The Dow climbed 45 points, or 0.3%, to 13,566.97. The Nasdaq rose 29 points, or 1.1%, to 2,753.93.

After the close, Apple reported sales and earnings that rose from a year ago and beat estimates. American Express also reported sales and earnings that topped estimates. Netflix reported higher quarterly earnings after the close, as did Texas Instruments.

Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.40% from 4.39% late on Friday. In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $8.40 to settle at $760 an ounce.

Oil prices retreated $1.04 to settle at $87.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, oil briefly hit an all-time high of $90.07 a barrel in electronic trading.

European shares posted broad losses. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index dropped 1.3% to 375.82, its biggest one-day fall since Sept. 7, with miners down 4.2% and industrials down close to 2%. The UK's FTSE 100 closed down 1.1% at 6,459.30, the German DAX 30 fell 1.1% to 7,794.94 and the French CAC-40 shed 1.4% to 5,661.27.

Brazilian and Mexican stock markets closed higher. Brazil's Bovespa rose 0.5% to 61,215.13 and Mexico's IPC rose .05% to $31,969.48. Chile's IPSA rose 0.5% to 3,429.68 and Chile's IPSA rose 0.5% to 3,429.68. In other emerging markets, the RTS index in Russia slid 2% to 2098 and the ISE National-30 index in Turkey dived 2.8% to 68,172.

Asian stocks rose this morning, with the regional benchmark rebounding from its biggest drop in two months. Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and National Australia Bank led gains by banks on speculation that the deal between Bear Stearns and China's Citic Securities will bolster confidence in financial companies affected by the credit-market crisis.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index gained 0.8% to 163.38 as of 10:38 a.m. in Tokyo, after yesterday falling by the most since Aug. 17. An index of financial stocks rose 1%, the biggest gain among the 10 industry groups. It slid 5% in the two weeks to yesterday's close.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.4% to 16,510.10, while South Korea's Kospi index gained 0.8%. Singapore's Straits Times Index was the region's best performer, adding 1.1%. All Asian markets open for trading advanced, except in New Zealand.

A highly volatile session ended mixed as benchmark Sensex ended in green as NSE Nifty closed in negative territory Markets opened with a huge negative gap hitting a low of 17,171 in early trades however buying momentum in the index heavyweights like HDFC, ICICI Bank, L&T and SBI lifted the benchmark Sensex to close in positive terrain.

Among the BSE sectoral indices, BSE Bank Oil & Gas index was down 1.5%, BSE IT index down 1.4% and BSE Metal index dropped 0.3%. However, on the other hand, BSE Bank index was the top gainer up 2.1%.

Finally, 30-share Sensex gained 54 points to close at 17,613. NSE Nifty lost 31 points to close at 5,184.

Reliance Industries slipped 2% to Rs2420. Reports stated that the company decided to hive off Reliance Fresh into a separate company, Ranger Farm, for single point accountability. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2483 and a low of Rs2371 and recorded volumes of over 50,00,000 shares on NSE.

ONGC slipped 1.2% to Rs1093. The company’s Mittal Joint Venture has bought 30% stake in Turkmenistan Area. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1150 and a low of Rs1076 and recorded volumes of over 11,00,000 shares on NSE.

India Cement surged by over 3.5% to Rs277 after the company’s Q2 profit rose 90.5% to Rs2.23bn and net sales at Rs8.9bn (up 50.8%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs291 and a low of Rs260 and recorded volumes of over 21,00,000 shares on NSE.

ITD Cementation jumped by over 4% to Rs648 after the company announced that they would sell 5.76mn shares at Rs415 per share. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs709 and a low of Rs613 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on NSE.

Triveni Engineering slipped by 1% to Rs113. General Electric along with the company signed pact on compressors. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs121 and a low of Rs110 and recorded volumes of over 36,00,000 shares on NSE.

PTC advanced by 2% to Rs94 after the company announced that it plans to sell a 40% stake in its unit PTC India Financial Services Ltd. to select investors. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs96 and a low of Rs90 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.

Hindustan Zinc edged higher 0.3% to Rs841. India's largest producer of the metal lowered prices of lead for a second time last week. The price was cut Rs700, or 0.4%, to Rs165,000 per ton. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs848 and a low of Rs802 and recorded volumes of over 13,000 shares on NSE.

Bharti Airtel dropped by over 3% to Rs945. Reports stated that the company would venture into IPTV and DTH services. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs961 and a low of Rs908 and recorded volumes of over 68,00,000 shares on NSE.

TTML gained by 1% to Rs40 following reports that the company may apply for GSM spectrum. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs40 and a low of Rs38 and recorded volumes of over 51,00,000 shares on NSE.

Parsvnath Developers is planning to build two luxury hotels at its 110 acre township in Jodhpur.

Ranbaxy has received an approval from the Canadian regulatory authority to market its hypertension drug Lisinopril.

France Tele is close to signing a 74:26 JV with Moser Baer for NLD and ILD operations.

Tata Teleservices has applied for GSM license in 20 circles.

ONGC Mittal has picked up 30% stake in an offshore exploratory block in Turkmenistan.

Triveni Engineering has struck a strategic alliance with GE to make high speed compressors used in the oil and gas industry.

Union Bank is planning to revalue its property with a view to boost its capital adequacy ratio.

Union Bank is planning to enter MF business and will announce a partner by year end.

Rajesh Exports has decided to issue bonus shares in the ratio of 2:1 post stock split from a face value of Rs2 to Re1.

UTV has announced the launch of World Movies, an international movie channel.

Finolex Industries is close to signing a deal for sale of its Chinchwad land.

Holcim has increased its stake in Ambuja Cement by 3.15% to 39.35%.

Videocon plans to enter airport development business through a newly formed group company.

Reliance Industries is in talks with Peru for picking up stake in two oil blocks.

Tata Power may buy coal mines in Australia and Africa to boost its existing supply of fuel.

Kotak Bank plans to enter the credit card business by February-March.

Nalco plans to build a 500,000 tons aluminum smelter, complete with a power plant in South Africa to save power cost.

Ballarpur Industries has raised uncoated paper prices by Rs500 per ton in October and Star Paper, West Coast Paper and JK Paper mills are also expected to follow suit.

IDFC has purchased 48.4% stake in one of its special purpose vehicles, called SMS Shivnath Infrastructure.

Ennore Foundries plans to increase its castings capacity to 230,000 tpa from ~10,000 tpa at an outlay of Rs3bn.

LIC Housing Finance plans to raise Rs5bn by selling shares to fund more loans to homebuyers.

Tata Chemicals’ bio-fuel plant in Nanded is expected to commence operations in 12-18 months.

Government has decided to allow SEZ units to import used plant or machinery without any quantitative restrictions, provided the machinery was not used by the assessee or previously used in India.

Ahead of the credit policy announcement, banks have sought a status quo for categorization of investments in their portfolio.

Government is planning sector specific sops for exporters affected by appreciating rupee.

India has crossed the milestone of 250mn phone connections, both fixed line and mobile, two months ahead of target.

Heavy rainfall is likely to affect soda ash production in the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, which accounts for 90% of soda ash production.

The demand for cement in the country is expected to grow by 10% in FY08.

The Maharashtra Government may reduce the special duty imposed on imported liquor.

In Q2 FY08, advance tax payments by telecom companies have declined by 17.3% to Rs5.4bn, while auto companies have paid an advance tax of Rs7.7bn, a drop of 14%.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net sellers of Rs12.92bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday and the local institutions pulled out Rs153.3mn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net buyers of Rs3.65bn.

FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs32.16bn on Friday. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs2.32bn on the same day.

Major Bulk Deals:

The Master Trust Bank of Japan sold Ambuja Cements to Holcim; CLSA has sold Champagne Indage; Morgan Stanley has sold Himatsingka Seide; SBI MF and Principal MF have sold Man Aluminium; CLSA has sold McDowell Holding; CLSA has purchased Panyam Cement while Merrill Lynch has sold it; CLSA has sold Radico Khaitan; UBS has sold Sical Logistics; CLSA has sold United Breweries.

Upper Circuit:

RIIL, HFCL, Rei Agro, Prakash Industries, Megasoft, IID Forgings, TCI Industries and BF Utilities.

Lower Circuit:

Marathon Nextgen, Jai Corp, Assam Company, Ferro Alloys.