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Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Staying Alive- morning song for bears


A lifetime of happiness ! No man alive could bear it; it would be hell on earth – GB Shaw.

The bulls sure don’t want hell in the markets. They may just give the bears a few moments of fame. No amount of warnings seem to stop the bulls. The Finance Minister's cautionary words or the bomb hoax are dismissed too easily thanks to liquidity. Today, we see a slightly lower opening given the declines in the US and Asian markets. But, powered by the strong undercurrent, the bulls are most likely to fight back if not today, expect them tomorrow.

The bears have been thrashed like the Aussie cricket has done to our men in blue. There may be an odd day when the bulls might want to take their foot off the accelerator. But, on the whole the rally is here to stay and the pace of it will keep on surprising the most experienced of the market pundits.

Of course, the relentless advance over the past couple of months or so has been fueled by non-stop inflow of foreign capital money. This trend looks set to continue for a while before there is some cooling. Backed by the strong outlook on the Indian economy, good momentum in corporate earnings growth and reduced concern on the political front, the key indices will continue to break new grounds and conquer new frontiers.

Retail investors may just shy away and will be scared to enter at these levels. In fact, Mutual Funds have been net sellers even as FII inflows continue unabated. We advise investors to hold on to quality stocks and use the buoyancy to get rid of the weak ones.

Results Today: Aztecsoft, Blue Dart, Chettinad Cement, Goa Carbon, HCL Tech, IDBI, Jubilant Organosys, Kajaria Ceramics, Madras Aluminium, Shasun Chemicals, Surana Industries, Tata Sponge and ZF Steering.

US stocks declined on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its biggest one-day loss in more than a month, after Citigroup's weak profit report and record-high oil prices sparked a big sell-off.

Citigroup, the largest US bank, posted its steepest loss since Aug. 28 after CFO Gary Crittenden said late payments on home loans may worsen in the fourth quarter.

After falling to session lows in late afternoon, stocks managed to stabilize and shave off some losses going into the close.

The S&P 500 Index lost 13 points, or 0.8%, to 1,548.71. Energy companies posted the only advance among 10 industry groups in the index after the price of oil climbed to a record.

The Dow tumbled 108 points, or 0.8%, to 13,984.8. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 26 points, or 0.9%, to 2,780.05.

US light crude oil for November delivery rose as high as $86.20 a barrel, an intra-day record, before pulling back a bit to end at $86.13, a new record close. Heating oil and natural gas prices jumped as well.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners beat advancers three to one as 1.29bn shares changed hands. On the Nasdaq, losers topped winners 7 to 3 on volume of 2.02bn shares.

Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.67% from 4.68% late on Friday. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained versus the yen.. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $8.40 to settle at $762.20 an ounce.

European shares lost ground, with consumer-electronics giant Philips a notable decliner, while gains from the oil sector cushioned losses. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index lost 0.9% at 387.07. The UK FTSE 100 closed down 1.3% at 6,644.50, the German DAX 30 declined 0.9% to 7,969.47 and the French CAC-40 lost 0.6% at 5,807.44.

Brazilian stocks finished higher, buoyed by a surge in commodity prices, while Mexican equities were weighed by a tumble on Wall Street. Brazil's Bovespa gained 0.8% to end at 62,969.44. In Mexico, the IPC index lost 0.4% to close at 32,355.86. Argentina's Merval logged a gain of 0.7% at 2,262.11 and Chile's IPSA rose 0.6% to 3,414.67.

Asian stocks were a little soft this morning on renewed concern that a US housing slump will cause losses at global financial companies. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost 1.1% to 167.10 at 10:44 a.m. in Tokyo, the most since Sept. 18, as nine of its 10 industry groups fell. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 1.2%, while South Korea's Kospi index slipped 0.6%.

Life after 19k

The party continued on Dalal Street as bulls conquered new milestones. Benchmark Sensex recorded its fastest 1,000 points rally. After reaching the 18k mark in just six trading session’s bulls took over the 19k mark in just four trading sessions also marking its second highest single day points ever.

Among the 30-scrips of Sensex, RIL, ICICI Bank, ONGC and Bharti Airtel were among the major gainers. However, Hindustan Unilever and IT bellwether Infosys were the major losers.

Among the BSE sectoral indices BSE Metal index was the top gainer, the index was up over 9%. BSE PSU index (up 5.3%) and BSE Bankex index (up 4.09%)

Major Contributors during the 18 to 19k journey

RIL was the major contributor it contributed 135 points, ICICI Bank 120 points, ONGC 119 points, L&T 108 points and Bharti Airtel 96 points.

Finally, BSE 30-share benchmark Sensex ended 639 points higher to close at 19,058. NSE Nifty added 242 points to close at 5,670.

BHEL spurred by over 3% to Rs2415 after the company announced that they have secured order for 2 gas turbines units. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2445 and a low of Rs2335 and recorded volumes of over 13,0,000 shares on NSE.

Welspun Gujarat advanced by 1% to Rs339 after the company announced its Q2 net profit at Rs825mn up 146% and sales at Rs9.27bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs353 and a low of Rs333 and recorded volumes of over 18,00,000 shares on BSE.

Jai Corp was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs1076.85 after the founders of the company sold 21.9mn shares. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1076.85 and a low of Rs1030 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,00,000 shares on BSE.

Nitco Tiles surged by over 5% to Rs293. The Board of Directors of the company announced that they would consider Raising FII limit to 66%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs298 and a low of Rs268 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Jindal Drilling rallied by over 7.5% to Rs1179 after the company announced that it secured new drilling contract from ONGC. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1260 and a low of Rs1119 and recorded volumes of over 47,000 shares on NSE.

JP Associates advanced 1.5% to Rs1276 after the company declared that hey would split each stock in to 5. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1328 and a low of Rs1261 and recorded volumes of over 14,00,000 shares on NSE.

Metal index was the star performer of the day as the index surged over 9%. After cut in the interest rates by FED metal prices are on a constant rise and with the Chinese Government imposing taxes on steel exports the view for Indian Steel manufacturers have improved. Tata Steel led from front, the scrip rose over 7% to Rs912, Hindalco surged over 5% to Rs188 and JSW Steel jumped by over 11% to Rs986.

Banking stocks were among the major gainers. SBI surged over 4.5% to Rs1953, HDFC Bank advanced 4.6% to Rs1499 and ICICI Bank added 4% to Rs1097. Bank of India, Corp Bank and PNB were the major gainer among the Mid-Cap stocks.

Oil exploration stocks were in demand as crude oil was trading at a record. Oil & Gas index gained 4.5%. ONGC rose over 8.5% to Rs1190; Reliance Industries added 4% to Rs2666.

However, Oil refinery stocks were on the receiving end, HPCL dropped 3.2% to Rs246, BPCL was down 4.4% to Rs360 and IOC slipped 1% to Rs449.

Stocks in News:

Petronet LNG is diversifying into power sector by setting up a gas based power plant to generate 1,100 MW of power.

ONGC has tied up with Ocean Rig (a Norwegian company) for supply of two rigs on a nomination basis for a sum of Rs81.8bn.

RIL is in discussions with four global players for partnerships to explore new regions in the US, South America and West Asia.

TCS is targeting 20 large deals which are above $50mn.

Apollo Tyres is likely to be the after-sales partner for Tata’s 1 lakh car.

Wockhardt is set to acquire US drug maker Morton Grove Pharmaceuticals Inc for $70mn.

UCO Bank is planning to raise Rs4.5bn via FPO during Q4 FY08.

Future Group is planning a 50:50 JV with Mauritius based Aeoterm Logistics.

HDIL has won the bid for developing 276 acres of slum land near Mumbai International Airport.

IFCI has decided to offer 30-odd banks and financial institutions, which helped in restructuring its liabilities, the option to convert a part of their debt worth Rs14.8bn into equity.

JSW Steel has received a permit to mine iron ore for its planned 10mn ton plant in Jharkhand.

Kinetic Motors plans to issue 8.71 lakh preferential shares to San Yang Motors, post which the latter’s holding in the company will increase to 16%.

Ashok Leyland is planning a 49:51 JV with a Black Economic Empowerment Partner to introduce products like 4x4s and luxury buses in South Africa.

HDFC is likely to finalize Ergo, the insurance arm of Munich Re, as its 26% foreign partner for the general insurance business.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has formally conveyed to US President George Bush about difficulties to push through the nuclear deal.

The Government is planning to keep the equity raised from ADRs and GDRs out of the FDI cap for select sectors.

The Delhi Government has slashed electricity rates by one rupee for domestic consumption up to 150 units a month.

The DoT is planning to freeze the amount of spectrum per operator. Also, operators might be asked to pay for more than 10Mhz capacity.

Sugar production in India is estimated to increase by 3.9% yoy to 29.3mn tons in 2007-08.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net buyers of Rs28.69bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions pulled out Rs2.81bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net buyers at Rs5.79bn.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs7.81bn in the cash segment on Friday. With this, their net investment in the month has crossed US$4.5bn and year-to-date the same is US$16.74bn.

Major Bulk Deals:

Citigroup has bought Bata India; Swiss Finance Corp and Franklin Templeton MF have picked up Consolidated Construction while UTI has sold the stock; Lehman Brothers has sold Genus Power; Goldman Sachs has purchased Greenply Industries; Prudential ICICI MF has bought Hindustan Dorr Oliver; Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Birla MF have bought Jai Corp; Citigroup has also picked up Marg Construction; PNB has purchased XL Telecom.

Upper Circuit:

RIIL, Tourism Finance, ITD Cementation, Lloyd Steel, Deep Industries, Bartronics, Binani Cement, Kothari Products, Bombay Burmah, Carol Info, Prakash Industries, Jai Corp, McNally Bharat and Karuturi Networks.

Lower Circuit:

Dhanalakshmi Bank.