Monday, March 12, 2007
The Indian stock markets have not become significantly more (or less) volatile at least for the last 25 years or so. I know that when I say that it will instinctively sound incorrect to you. You're probably waiting for the 'but…' part of that sentence. But there is no but. It really is true. At Value Research, we're doing some research on whether, as is the general impression nowadays, the stock markets have become more volatile. The study isn't complete yet but it's clear that as far as the bellwether Sensex goes, volatility is essentially unchanged since 1979. True, there was a huge peak in the Sensex' jumpiness during 1992, but that just lasted a few months.
Then why do all of us feel that the markets have become a lot more fickle? There are a bunch of reasons but the major one is simply the media's obsession with the absolute figure of the Sensex. It is a simple fact of arithmetic and mass media that on large bases, percentage changes are much less exciting than absolute numbers. Consider this data: On 15 June 2006, the Sensex closed 616 points higher than the previous close. This was a 6.9 per cent rise. Two decades ago, on March 25, 1986 the Sensex closed a much larger 9.1 per cent higher than the previous close. But in those days the Sensex used to be around 500 points so this was a rise of a mere 48 points. Closer to present times, the Sensex fell by exactly the same percentage (6.9) on April 17, 1999, but this was just 246 points. When I see headlines in newspapers and on TV channels focusing exclusively on the actual numbers of points, it's clear to me that there's a fake idea of the markets' volatility that is being peddled just to add a sensation because sensation sells.
After all, if you were a TV or a print newsman, which of these two headlines would you have chosen for the day when Mr Chidambaram presented Budget 2007: 'Markets register fourth worst fall ever'; or, 'Markets register 96th worse fall ever'. The first one is by absolute points and the second by percentage. Both are technically true but I believe that the first one is misleading and shows a certain contempt for readers' intelligence. Absolute numbers must never be used to compare quantities that have different bases. When a headline says that 28th February was the fourth worst ever, it is comparing all 6,000-plus days on which the Sensex has existed. Every one of those days had a different base and should thus be compared only on the basis of percentages. By any standard of mathematical or statistical literacy, such headlines are nonsense.
By the way, aren't you surprised that leave alone the worst five, the recent much-celebrated declines of the Sensex barely make it to the list of worst 100 one-day declines? That this comes as a surprise to so many people shows how completely we've all been fooled by this volatility story that's being peddled.
So is there no other reason beyond these fun-with-maths headlines that contributes to investors' volatility psychosis? I for one am hard-pressed to think of one. True, our study isn't complete and we'll be looking at indices as well individual companies more closely but my hunch is that this is the way it is.
I'm not ruling out more volatility in the future, at least temporarily, but you know something, the sky isn't really falling. There's a deep bedrock of current and potential economic growth which won't vanish overnight just because of new taxes in China or whatever. And that's going to be true for quite some time to come, even if new-fangled technology like percentages catch on or not.
Real estate companies looking to launch IPOs will need to scale back their valuation hopes as investors lose appetite for the once red-hot sector.
Surging demand for homes and offices in an economy forecast to grow 9.2 percent in this fiscal year had triggered a spate of listing plans by developers, but rising interest rates, steep valuations, lack of earnings, a market sell-off and the poor performance of recent issues have made investors edgy.
"The correction will slow things on the IPO side, especially real estate," said Ravi Sardana, vice president at ICICI Securities, referring to the recent stock market skid. "Only quality issues would find it easy to raise funds."
India's biggest real estate firm, DLF Ltd., has applied with regulators for the second time in less than a year to launch a float that could raise about $2 billion for a 10.2 percent stake.
Other developers including Omaxe Ltd., Puravankara Projects Ltd., Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd., IVR Prime Urban Developers Ltd. and Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. have also filed red-herring prospectuses with the regulator.
"There's a big readjustment in terms of valuation expectations, which is very healthy, but it's painful in the short term to the issuers," said Vedika Bhandarkar, managing director and head of investment banking in India at JPMorgan.
Demand for new property issues has been soured by the poor market showing by recent market newcomers.
Shares in Dev Property Development have fallen about 11 percent from their late January issue price after the company raised $267 million on London's secondary AIM platform.
Mumbai-based Akruti Nirman Ltd., which listed last month, and Delhi-based Parsvnath Developers Ltd., which went public in November, both trade below their IPO prices.
Bangalore-based Sobha Developers Ltd. is more than 10 percent above its listing price, but around 40 percent below its high on its first day of trade in December.
India's benchmark index is down nearly 12 percent from its Feb. 9 peak, after falling as much as 16 percent in a global sell-off, while the drop in real estate stocks was sharper, thanks to steep valuations and doubts about sustained growth in asset prices amid monetary tightening to curb inflation.
"It was a little unnatural that Indian companies could raise capital at a 50 percent premium to NAV (net asset value) when everybody in the region raises capital at a discount to NAV," JP Morgan's Bhandarkar said.
Still, she said, with the Reserve Bank of India trying to restrict bank loans to developers, property firms will need to raise capital, whether from the public or private market.
The central bank has raised short-term lending rates 125 basis points since January 2006 and home loan rates have risen about 300 to 400 basis points in the last year.
"We need real estate development urgently, but it needs money to be deployed for construction, which can then be sold or rented. Just buying land is not enough," said Sanjay Nayar, chief executive officer of Citigroup India.
Indian property firms have faced a backlash over the practice of pricing themselves based on the value of their land banks -- which soared over the past three years -- and not by conventional price-to-earnings ratios.
To build up those land banks, many developers borrowed heavily, which increases the pressure on them to raise capital.
"The traditional benchmark of P/E ratio was not taken for pricing real estate IPOs, and instead they were priced based on the land bank, which caused the trouble," said M.A.A. Annamalai, director at brokerage Akshaya & Co.
"That formula won't be accepted any more," he said.
Shares in some property firms such as Hirco Plc. and Ishaan Real Estate Plc., which were listed on the London Stock Exchange's AIM platform, trade far below their IPO prices.
"Many of these issues (on AIM) shared the same flaws, being of fund rather than corporate structures, blind pool fundings rather than with identified use of proceeds, and lacking clear revenue-generating project pipelines," said Frank Hancock, head of M&A and equity capital markets for India at ABN AMRO in Delhi.
But some observers believe that demand for real estate development is so strong in India that rightly-priced IPOs will be absorbed once the volatility subsides.
"At the right price, obviously, our fund managers would be keen to invest," said Sandesh Kirkire, chief executive of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management.
- Recent de-rating unjustified — HLL’s current valuations seem to be building in the worst-case scenario, and we see the recent stock de-rating as unjustified. The stock has been unduly de-rated post a disappointing 4Q, which we believe was a one-off. Fundamentals are on an improving trajectory, and its operating parameters are looking up.
- Fundamentals are improving — Sales growth has picked up and margins have been improving despite cost pressures. HLL has also started to gain ground on market share in its key segments of late. HLL is investing behind new products in the high-margin cosmetics segment, benefits of which will accrue. It is also likely to aggressively expand its foods business in 2007.
- Positive surprises likely — HLL’s margins could surprise positively; HLL had increased its ad-spend in 20006, which could be curtailed in 2007. HLL still makes no money on its detergents portfolio (20% of sales). Easing of competitive pressures here could see an uptick in margins. We do not rule out an acquisition in the foods segment to kick-start HLL’s stated expansion in foods.
- Valuations at near historical lows — Current valuations are near historical lows and are disconnected to fundamentals. The stock is trading at 17.9x08E P/E, offers 2-year EPS CAGR of 20.5% and its capital efficiency ratios are among the best in the sector (78% ROE), and improving. In addition, the stock offers a dividend yield of 4%, which should support the stock price
FII Gross purchases Rs 2757 Cr, Gross Sellers 2361 Cr, Net Buyers Rs 395 Cr.
MF Gross Purchases Rs 482 Cr Gross Sellers Rs 867 Cr Net Sellers Rs 384 Cr.
FII figures have finally come in positive and thats a sentimental positive. Look for a strong start tomorrow. MFs were sellers and thats some worry. MFs may see more selling ahead of advance tax as corporates pull out money from the markets This week will be lacklustre on the back of this liquidity outflow to meet advance tax date of March 15th.
Markets opened strong on the back of positive markets then and traded ranged in the later session. Opening was positive on the back of positive Global cues. Industrial growth data released helped market hold positive grounds. However in mid sessions, market lost some gains as investors chose to book profits at the higher levels. Buying was seen in Telecom, Auto and Engineering stocks, while Banking, FMCG and Cement continued to witness selling pressure. Domestic forces were at play and liquidity outflow expected because of Advance tax kept interest limited. The Asian Indices ended in green and the European markets also supported.
Sensex closed up by 18 points at 12902.63. It was helped up by gains in Bharti Tele (769.75,+3 percent), TCS (1238.3,+2 percent), L & T (1509.65,+2 percent), Cipla (232.7,+2 percent) and ONGC (793.4,+2 percent). Restricting the gains with Guj Ambuja (105.2,-4 percent), ACC (747.6,-4 percent), ITC (149,-3 percent), HDFC Bk (951.25,-3 percent) and Grasim (2014.25,-3 percent).
Greenply was up over 5% for the day. This is one company we have been bullish on. Do read our research note which was rerun today. The company is expanding and benefits of the same will be felt in the bottomlines in the years ahead.
Century was one cement stalwart which was positive in a weak environment for cement. Its the property story which was at play here. Look for more gains here. !
Energy stocks traded in positive. GAIL the gas utility major has signed a pact with state-run exploration and production major ONGC to market gas produced by the latter from its oil and gas blocks in the Krishna Godavari and Mahanadi basins. The two entities are likely to float a new joint venture for the purpose. The pricing of and quantum of the gas, which is yet to be worked out, would depend on ONGC's development plans. Recent exploratory efforts by ONGC have led to the discovery of gas in the KG offshore basin; however, the estimated reserves are yet to be confirmed. Production would depend on commercial exploitation of the discoveries and their subsequent development plans. The tie-up will allow GAIL to have access to new source of gas and will also enable it to better utilize its existing network of pipelines as well as expand its infrastructure. Additional sourcing of gas would also help GAIL conceptualize new networks in the markets of Andhra Pradesh and neighboring states. Also the joint venture approach would help GAIL limit its capital risk for any large-scale infrastructure projects it undertakes. GAIL ended 1% lower while ONGC closed up 1.8%.
Telecom sector traded mixed as Bharti Airtel has planned a capital investment of US$ 8 bn by the year 2010. The company has been spending nearly US$ 2 bn per annum over the past few years and by this announcement has proposed to continue doing so in the medium term as well. The company plans to add about 20,000 base stations by the end of FY08 and another 30,000 by the end of FY09. The company targets to increase its subscriber base by nearly fourfold to 125 m subscribers by the end of FY10 from its current base of 35 m (as on February 2007). Stock ended up by 3%.
Technically Speaking: It was a range session for the whole day before closing. Sensex touched intraday high of 13056 and low of 12844. Sensex had an inside day today. Any move above or below Friday's close will give a new direction to the market. The levels to watch are 13105 on the higher side and 12850 on the lower side. Resistance at 13034, 113151 level. Support at 12822, 12727 levels. Market turnover stood at Rs 3395 cr. Overall breadth was in favor of Advancers where the Advancers were 1543 against Decliners of 1032.
After a listless start the market took a cue from the strength in the Asian markets and moved up on fresh buying in capital goods, cement and auto stocks. The Sensex surged in the afternoon and traded above the 13,000 mark as buying intensified in index heavyweights and touched the day's high of 13057. Despite Asian markets closing higher and reports of an 11% growth in the industrial production in the first nine months of the current fiscal, the Sensex slipped below 13000 on profit taking in front-line stocks towards the close. The index tumbled to touch an intra-day low of 12845 shaving off over 200 points from the day's high. The Sensex finally ended the session with moderate gains of 18 points at 12903, while the Nifty closed at 3735, up 17 points.
The breadth of the market was positive. Of the 2,613 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,540 stocks advanced, 1,017 stocks declined and 57 stocks ended unchanged. All the BSE indices were up except the BSE FMCG Index. The BSE CG Index advanced 1.67% at 8746 followed by the BSE Auto Index (up 1.12% at 4898) and the BSE HC Index (up 0.80% at 3490). However, the BSE FMCG Index closed in negative territory.
Select blue chip stocks notched up significant gains. Bharti Airtel rose 2.61% at Rs770, TCS advanced 2.15% at Rs1,238, L&T climbed 1.89% at Rs1,509, Cipla surged 1.64% at Rs233, ONGC gained 1.59% at Rs793, Wipro added 1.49% at Rs573, Maruti jumped 1.23% at Rs797, ICICI Bank advanced 1.18% at Rs870, Tata Motors gained 1.14% at Rs764 and HDFC was up 1.09% at Rs1,584. Among the laggards Gujarat Ambuja tumbled 4.32% at Rs105, ACC dropped 4.26% at Rs748, ITC slipped 3.47% at Rs149, HDFC Bank lost 2.99% at Rs951 and Grasim fell 2.65% at Rs2,014. Reliance Energy, Reliance Communications, SBI, Ranbaxy and Infosys ended with marginal losses.
Capital goods stocks were in the limelight. Triveni Engineering soared 8.25% at Rs53, Jyoti Structures jumped 8.11% at Rs173, Gammon India surged 4.54% at Rs315, Areva advanced 4.12% at Rs1,050 and Crompton Greaves gained 4.04% at Rs196. Punj Lloyds, Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, ABB, Praj Industries and Bharat Electricals were up 1-3% each. Among the auto and auto ancillary stocks, Tube Investment, Bharat Forge, TVS Motors, Amteck Auto, Ashok Leyland, MRF and Cummins India gained 1-4% each.
Over 1.24 crore Idea Celluar shares changed hands on the BSE followed by IDFC (41.94 lakh shares), ITC (35.79 lakh shares), India Cements (34.59 lakh shares) and Reliance Communications (23.40 lakh shares).
Value-wise Century Textiles registered a turnover of Rs120 crore on the BSE followed by Idea Celluar (Rs110 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs98 crore), Reliance Communications (Rs97 crore) and ACC (Rs68 crore).
The market edged higher today, tracking firm Asian markets. However, the Sensex pared a sizable part of the gains from an early afternoon surge. Cement shares flopped for the second successive day.
The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 17.64 points (0.14%), to settle at 12,902.63. The market had surged in the early-afternoon, and the benchmark Sensex jumped as many as 171.87 points, to 13,056.86 at 13:05 IST.
The S&P CNX Nifty gained 16.60 points (0.45%), to settle at 3,734.60. Nifty March 2007 futures were at 3,737 compared to the spot Nifty closing of 3,734.60.
The market-breadth was strong. Against 1,543 shares rising on BSE, 1,032 declined. Just 52 shares were unchanged. Gainers outpaced losers by a ratio of 1.49:1. Stock specific action was witnessed on Friday as well, even though the Sensex had lost 164 points.
BSE Small-Cap Index gained 66.60 points (1%), to settle at 6,317.65, while the BSE Mid-Cap Index rose 48.06 points (0.9%), to end at 5,276.50.
All sectoral indices of BSE except the BSE FMCG index ended in the green today. The BSE Capital Goods Index was the top gainer in percentage terms. It rose 143.60 points (1.6%), to settle at 8,745.90, and the BSE Auto index gained 54.43 points (1.1%), to settle at 4,898.08. BSE FMCG index lost 23.84 points or 1.4% to settle at 1,665.03.
The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3395 crore, compared to Friday (9 March 2007)’s Rs 4339 crore. Turnover on NSE’s derivatives segment declined sharply to Rs 26751.37 crore from Friday’s Rs 34939.39 crore.
The data on industrial production released today showed industrial production rose 10.9% in January 2007 from a year earlier, lower than a revised annual growth of 12.5% in December 2006. Output in November 2006 was an annual 15.4%, the highest in more than a decade. Manufacturing production, which represents more than 75% of industrial output, rose 11.6% in January 2007 from a year earlier, compared with a provisional 11.9% annual growth in December 2006.
The share markets in the Asia-Pacific rose on Monday, continuing a recovery after the recent slide as US jobs data reassured investors about the health of the world's biggest economy. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Japan were up between 0.5 - 1.6%.
There has been a lack of direction on the domestic bourses over the past few days. A recovery of 282 points on 6 March 2007, was followed by a decline of 117 points on 7 March 2007. A solid surge of 470 points on 8 March 2007, was witnessed the next day (on 8 March 2007) which was followed by a decline of 164 points on 9 March.
Earlier, a sell-off gripped bourses in late February-early March 2007 due to setback in global markets, and disappointing Union Budget 2007-08 on 28 February 2007. A sharp fall of nearly 9% in Chinese stocks on 27 February 2007, had spooked global bourses in late February-early March 2007.
The Budget left a lot to be desired. While there was no across-the-board cut in the 10% corporate surcharge as expected, the dividend distribution tax was raised to 15% from 12.5%. The Budget also raised direct/indirect taxes for cement, construction and IT sectors.
The next trigger for the domestic bourses may come from global bourses. US Federal Reserve holds a two-day meet on 20-21 March 2007 to decide US interest rates. The latest US job data helped eased expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
In today’s trade, cement shares retreated for the second day in a row after Commerce Minister Kamal Nath said on Friday cement makers had agreed not to raise prices for one year. Gujarat Ambuja Cements dropped 5% to Rs 104.35, ACC lost 4% to Rs 747 and Grasim shed 2.6% to Rs 2015. Brokerage CLSA downgraded cement makers ACC and Gujarat Ambuja Cements to "underperform", but rated Grasim and UltraTech as "outperform". According to CLSA, the latter two will be "relatively better off" due to higher volume growth potential, cost savings and lower exposure to the northern region.
Cigarette major ITC dropped nearly 4% to Rs 148.50. The stock declined on a heavy volume of 35.7 lakh shares on BSE.
Reliance Industries ended flat at Rs 1318. The stock came off the session’s high of Rs 1334.50. As per reports, the company had made two more gas discoveries off the country's east coast. The discoveries were made in gas-rich KG DG block in the Krishna-Godavari basin, and in NEC 25 block of the Mahanadi basin.
IPCL dropped 1.6% to Rs 264.10. Reliance Industries (RIL) set a ratio of one share of RIL for every five held in IPCL, to give shape to the merger of IPCL with RIL.
State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation rose 1.2% to Rs 791 on reports it was seeking 49% stake in Venezuela's San Cristobal oil block.
Engineering & construction major L&T gained nearly 3% to Rs 1525. The company is seen benefiting from the government’s thrust on the infrastructure sector in the Union Budget 2007-08.
Select telecom shares edged higher. Cellular Services major Bharti Airtel gained 2.6% to Rs 770. Idea Cellular rose nearly 2% to Rs 87.20. A massive 1.2 crore shares changed hands in the counter on BSE. The Idea Cellular stock debuted at Rs 92.40 on BSE on Friday (9 March 2007). It had settled at Rs 85.55 on the same day.
Software bellwether Infosys shed 0.4% to Rs 2114, whereas IT major TCS rose 2.3% to Rs 1240. Wipro had gained 1.8% to Rs 575.
ICICI Bank was up 2% to Rs 877. ICICI Bank has no plans for a stock-split, Chief Executive Officer KV Kamath said on Monday responding to market speculation.
Bhel rose 0.2% to Rs 2101.60. It came off the session’s high of Rs 2196.80. The company said on Monday its board had proposed altering its articles of association for a bonus issue.
Software firm Aftek jumped 5% to Rs 64.15, after the company said on Monday that Morgan Stanley & Co International had acquired 580,414 shares in the company, raising their holding to 5.43% from 4.77%.
Jet Airways jumped nearly 8% to Rs 583.90, after the company said on Monday it will add a direct flight to London from Ahmedabad, starting 3 April 2007.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rose 0.3% to Rs 735. M&M announced an open offer to acquire additional 20% stake in Punjab Tractors (PTL), at Rs 360 per share. The mandatory open offer was announced after M&M last week emerged the top bidder for acquiring 43.3% stake in PTL from private equity investor Actis and the Burman family.
Separately, M&M also made an offer to buy almost 4,80,000 shares, or 20% in Swaraj Automotives, in which Punjab Tractors owns 24.2% at Rs 244 per share. It also made an open offer to buy 20%, or 2.48 million shares in Swaraj Engines, where Punjab Tractors owns 33.2% stake, at Rs 151 per share.
Cadila Healthcare rose 0.6% to Rs 311, after the company said on Monday it had received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration to sell paroxetine tablets, an anti-depressant drug.
Battered real estate developers advanced for the second day in a row after cement firms decided on Friday not to raise prices for one year in government’s efforts to rein in inflation. Ansal Infrastructure jumped 5% to Rs 508.30, Unitech rose 5% to Rs 366.70, Mahindra Gesco Developers rose 5.6% to Rs 592, Parsvanath Developers rose 3.6% to Rs 245 and Sobha Developers gained 1.5% to Rs 723.50. Cement is a key input for real estate developers.
IFCI rose 1.5% to Rs 25.60, after ratings firm ICRA set a price band of Rs 275 - Rs 330 for an initial public offering (IPO). As per reports, the ICRA equity on offer also includes IFCI's holding of 1.86 million shares in the company.
Flawless Diamond gained 5% to Rs 79.65, after the company said on Monday it had received two export orders worth Rs 32 crore for its jewellery collection.
State-run Punjab National Bank gained 1.1% to Rs 435. The state-run bank said on Monday Goldman Sachs Investments (Mauritius) had acquired 20 lakh shares of the bank, raising its stake to 5.2% from 4.6%.
IVRCL Infrastructures rose 0.4% to Rs 277.50. The company said on Monday it had won orders worth Rs 313 crore.
Eicher Motors jumped 5% to Rs 327.65, after it declared an interim dividend of Rs 29 a share, including a one-time special dividend of Rs 25 per share.
Cement maker Rain Commodities rose 1.7% to Rs 120.40, after the company said on Monday it had raised its offer price for the acquisition of all assets of Canada's Great Lakes Carbon Income Fund from Canadian $11.60 to Canadian $13.25 per unit. The increase follows a competitive bid from US company, Oxbow Carbon & Minerals Holdings Inc., at Canadian (C)$13 per unit. In February 2007, Rain Commodities proposed to buy Great Lakes' assets at C$437 million in cash.
The US economy added 97,000 jobs in February, slightly below expectations, data showed on Friday, but jobs growth for previous months was revised up and the unemployment rate fell. US blue-chips inched up on Friday, helped by the jobs data, but the growing financial woes of firms operating at the riskier end of the mortgage market capped broader gains. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 15.62 points, or 0.13% to settle at 12,276.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended nearly unchanged, at 2,387.55.
FIIs have resumed buying since the past three days after selling heavily since late-February 2007. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 115.80 crore on Thursday (8 March 2007), the day when the Sensex had surged 470 points. As per provisional data, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 412 crore on Friday (9 March 2007), the day when the Sensex had lost 164 points.
Even as mutual funds are sitting on cash, thanks to collections from some of the recent new fund offers, they continue to press sales in equities. Mutual funds were net sellers to the tune of Rs 385 crore on Friday (9 March 2007), the day when Sensex had lost 164 points. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 40 crore on Thursday (8 March 2007), the day when the Sensex had surged 470 points. They had pressed sales worth a net Rs 379.56 crore on Wednesday (7 March 2007), the day when the Sensex had lost 177 points in volatile trade.
Trading on BSE and NSE was extended by 45 minutes till 16:15 IST due to sun outage. This schedule is applicable till 19 March 2007.
We met the management of Moser Baer recently. Key takeaways:
Moser Baer (Moser) is the 2nd largest player in the world for optical disks (CDR/RW and DVDR/RW) with a market share of 17-18 %( as on FY06).It has presence across 82 countries in the world. Moser is the first one to launch HD-DVD technology globally. It has 5 plants in the NCR region. It is the primarily an OEM supplier to all players like Sony, HP, Phillips etc. It currently has a capacity of 3.2 bn discs p.a which includes ~ 1.7 bn discs for CD and ~1.5 bn discs for DVD. The company has a wholly owned subsidiary “Moser Baer Photo Voltaic ltd” (MBPV) which concentrates on solar power generation business by manufacturing solar cells and modules. MBPV (as on FY06) however contributes a negligible amount to the topline as well as bottomline currently. IFC holds ~12.5%, Electra - ~ 5.95%, Warburg ~33% in Moser. (Dec 06).
- Moser has recently entered the INR 5 bn Indian home video market with 101 Tamil film titles. In Tamil Nadu, Moser sells its DVDs and VCDs through 7,000 point of sales. Moser sell its film VCDs for INR 28 and DVDs for INR 34. Current home video labels are priced between INR 150 and INR 400.Moser intends to spend USD 100 mn for investment in this business over the next three years. The strategy is to reach the masses. Moser expects this business to generate USD 250 mn per annum three years down the line. Moser currently owns more than 50% of Indian titles produced till date.
- Pyramid Saimira Theatre and Moser have entered into a strategic tie-up for retailing the home video format in all their theatres and also exclusively marketing all their new films under home video format. The profits arriving out of these titles will be shared equally by Moser Baer and Pyramid Saimira, including revenue generated from advertisement in VCD / DVD.
- MBPV intends to establish the world's largest thin film solar fab at Greater Noida, entailing an investment of USD 250 mn over the next three years. The thin-film will have an area of 5.7 sq mt which it claims to be the world’s largest, as the current industry benchmark is 1.5 sq mt. MBPV has inked a technology partnership with US-based Applied Materials Inc. for this project to manufacture large area thin film solar modules. Thin film solar modules are ideal for energy farms and rural applications. MBPV plans to start with solar modules capable of generating 40MW of power initially and ramp-up to 200 MW by FY10. Commercial production for 40 MW would begin from March 2008 and the revenues will start to accrue from April 2008 onwards. MBPV would initially focus on the export market, and expects USD 100 mn of revenues per annum from the project in FY08. In the first phase, the investment for capex, equipment and facility will be to the tune of USD 100 million. Of this, while 50% would come in form of debt (project finance from banks) and 30% from Moser, project accruals, and third party sources, about 20% is expected as support from Government's recently announced semiconductor policy. With the capacity going upto 80 MW this business could generate USD 250 mn of revenues.
At CMP of INR 307, the stock trades at 36.6x its likely FY07 annualized (standalone) EPS of INR 8.3 and 7.6x its annualized (standalone) FY07 cash EPS of INR 40.
Sell Jet Airways with stop loss of Rs 565 for target of Rs 490.
Buy Shree Renuka Sugars with stop loss of Rs 320 for target of Rs 420
Short sell IndusInd Bank above Rs 40.75 with stop loss of Rs 42; This is a day-trading recommendation
Buy Bharti Airtel below Rs 760 with stop loss of Rs 751; This is a day-trading recommendation
The markets were again gripped in volatility with wild swings in and out of positive zone. The Sensex surged to an intra-day high of 13,145, however with selling pressure at higher levels especially in the cement sector the index finally lost 164 points to settle at 12,885. The Nifty was down 42 points to 3,718.
The NSE & BSE cash volumes were significantly higher compared to the previous day at INR 96 bn and INR 43 bn. The F&O volumes were a touch higher at INR 347 bn.
The Implied Volatility (IV) across Nifty strikes has slightly decreased to 29-30% levels. The WPCR of Nifty Options decreased to 0.85 compared to the previous day while the 5 day average is 0.93.
We expect the market to open with a positive gap taking cues from encouraging US payroll data and Asian markets. The IIP numbers can set the tone of the market as we see some buildup in fresh positions by investors who where waiting on the fence for the volatility to settle down. The Nifty will be range bound in absence of any major news trigger.
After being net buyers for three consecutive days in Index futures, FII turned net sellers to the tune of INR 2.4 bn on Friday, as the bears overtook the bulls. The Nifty futures discount is expected to reduce from its current level of 18 points as the bearish tone is expected to fade away.
We continue to be bullish on Telecom, IT and Pharma sectors. Heavyweights Bharti, RCOM, Infosys are expected to drive the Nifty.
Currently the market is sandwiched between the 200 SMA (as a strong support) and 13 DMA as an intermediate resistance. We believe that the market would consolidate between 3750 and 3626 for sometime and eventually move northward. In the immediate term, the Nifty has a support at 3684 and 3644. The resistance for Nifty is at 3752 and 3778.
NIFTY (3718) SUP 3981 RES 3756
BUY ERACONS (335.75)
SL 330 T 344, 346
BUY CAIRN (122.85)
SL 119 T 129, 131
SELL BIRLAJUTE (206.5)
@ 211 SL 216 T 201, 199
SELL AMTEKINDIA (148)
@ 152 SL 156 T 143, 141
SELL BHARATFOGE (303)
@ 307 SL 311 T 297, 295
Learn from past week
Your best teacher is your last mistake.
A positive opening may make us forget the volatility last week. And the next time we remember it may be when the same thing happens again, which could take place this week. Though the bulls managed a bounce back last week, we are not out of the woods yet as there are plenty of worries encircling the market. Brace yourself for some more pain in the near term before the market regains its winning ways. Any rally should be used as an exit route for the short term. One can re-enter at much more attractive levels. Only those with deep pockets, lots of patience and steely nerves to ignore the daily swings should stay invested for long term benefits.
Things have changed pretty swiftly though the warning signs have been there for quite some time. Global liquidity, which was powering the equity markets across the world for the past 2-3 years, has suddenly taken an ugly turn down. The so-called "yen carry trade" is slowly unwinding, throwing emerging as well as developed markets, out of gear. There are also worries about the health of the US economy, especially the fragile housing sector.
Locally, interest rates have shot up in a fairly short span of time, as inflation has crossed the uncomfortable 6% mark. As a result, we have a panicky Government and central bank trying to get themselves, out of the hole they apparently dug, by letting the money loose for far too long. The market hasn't taken the revival of Government intervention too kindly. What's worse, we aren't not finished yet as there will be more such developments in future.
The dangerous combination of local and global elements won't let the market settle for a while. Interest rates are expected to go up further. Inflation may take time to cool off. The Government will continue with its "market unfriendly" steps to reign in prices. FIIs are pulling money out of the emerging markets. In the first week of March they offloaded close to $9bn from emerging market funds. The trend has to reverse for the resurgence of the global equity markets.
If you think we are cautioning some Monday morning blues, be rest assured the opening looks set for some positive mood. We expect a higher opening thanks to firm Asian markets. Japan is leading the regional markets higher after the world's second-largest economy grew at the fastest pace in three years. Friday's better than expected jobs report in the US has also soothed some concerns about the state of the world's largest economy. Still, one should not get carried away as in the short term, there are more chances of the market falling below these levels than rising with confidence.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs4.12bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Friday when the Sensex fell by over 160 points. In the F&O segment they offloaded stocks worth Rs2.98bn. On Thursday, foreign funds pumped in Rs1.16bn in the cash segment. On the other hand, Mutual Funds were net sellers at Rs397.6mn.
Reliance will surely attract a lot of attention following the approval of the IPCL merger. The swap ratio of 1 share of Reliance for 5 shares of IPCL is in line with expectations. Both the companies have also announced big dividends. Reliance is also in the news for a possible mega global acquisition.
IFCI may continue to hog the limelight as local debt rating agency ICRA is to formally launch its IPO today. Northgate Technology is likely to gain as the RBI has hiked the investment limit for FIIs up to 49%. Bharti Airtel could advance as the company plans to invest $8bn by 2010 on expansion.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% on Friday, rounding out a 1.3% advance for the week. It was up 15.62 points to 12,276.32. The broader S&P 500 was flat at 1,402.85, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq too finished nearly unchanged at 2,387.55.
A government report showed that the US jobless rate fell to 4.5% last month, approaching a five-year low, from January's 4.6%. US companies added 97,000 jobs, while average weekly earnings rose.
A separate government report showed the trade deficit narrowed in January. Data two weeks ago on new home sales and durable-goods orders had fueled concerns growth in the world's largest economy is slowing.
The string of economic readings sent Treasury prices tumbling, as bond investors lowered expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates anytime soon. The decline raised the yield on the 10-year note to 4.58 percent from 4.51 percent late on Thursday.
In currency trading, the dollar rallied versus the yen and the euro. COMEX gold for April delivery fell $3.50 to $652 an ounce.
US light crude oil for April delivery fell $1.59 to settle at $60.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was quoting 68 cents lower at $59.37 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.
Most Asian markets, barring China are trading higher this morning. The Nikkei is up 135 points at 17,299 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 140 points to 19,275 and the Kospi in Seoul added 15 points to 1439. The Straits Times in Singapore gained 26 points at 3170.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index gained 0.7% to 143.61 at 11:09 a.m. in Tokyo.
Japanese exporters rose after the yen weakened 1% to 118.32 against the dollar in New York on Friday, its biggest drop since July 12. Against the euro, the yen lost 0.8 percent to 155.18. Japan's currency recently changed hands at 118.24 a dollar and 155.01 per euro.
All the emerging markets ended sharply higher on Friday. The Bovespa in Brazil was up 1.5% to 44,133 while the IPC index in Mexico advanced 1.2% to 27,106 and the RTS index in Russia surged 2.35% to 1808.
ACC Limited: Life Insurance Corporation of India has purchased from open market 5614744 equity shares of ACC Limited on 5th March, 2007.
The turnover on NSE was 17% to Rs96.41bn. BSE FMCG index was the major loser and lost 1.64%. BSE Capital Good index (down 1.47%), BSE Auto index (down 1.31%) and BSE Technology index (down 1.18%) were among the major losers.
Idea Cellular, IFCI, SAIL, India Cement, ITC, TTML, Century Textile, R Com, Tata Steel, ACC, IVRCL Infrastructure, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, DCB, HCC and Aptech.
Shree Cement, Manglam Cement, Shah Alloys, Atlanta, Tanla, Shree Ashtavinyak, Autoline Industries, Anant Raj Industries and Ganesh Housing.
Alfa-Laval, Asian Electronics, BEML, Blue Star, City Union Bank, Colgate, Educomp Solutions, Gammon India, Gitanjali Gems, GVK Power, Max India, NTPC, NIIT LTD, Nicholas Piramal, Sadbhav Engineering, Sun Pharma, Thermax and Welspun Gujarat.
Long Term investment:
Major News Headlines:
Inflation at 6.1% for week ended Feb 24 vs 6.05%
Colgate to pay Rs3.25 per share interim dividend
Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA approval for Didanosine Oral Suspension
Astrazeneca Pharma Board to consider interim dividend
Patel Engineering declares Interim Dividend at 130%
Bihar Tubes hikes prices of all its products by 4% to 5%
Alfa Transformers to start unit in Nasik
Nagarjuna Construction Company Ltd (NCC)
Nagarjuna Construction Company Ltd (NCC) to benefit from the high investment in road and water verticals, expected to together account for 35.6% of revenues in FY07 and 19.5% in FY08. The current order book is healthy, given NCC’s average execution period of 27 months. With order intake during FY06 at 2x turnover, NCC is set for high growth in the next two years, with an expected topline increase of 54.5% and 43.5% during FY07 and FY08 respectively.
NCC was one of the early entrants into the BOT space and enjoys a good mix with two annuity road projects, two toll based ones and two projects in the power vertical. The company plans to bid for new BOTs on its own having raised
the finances. At the book value of NCC’s equity, these six projects translate into Rs15.8 per share of NCC, which is 9% of the CMP.
NCC will sell 88% of the 50 acres land, in lieu of 12% of the developed area to be given to the government, post the National Games 2007. NCC also has 89% equity stake in the AP Housing project for development of 85 acres. We value these two projects at Rs9.1 per share of NCC at 2x book value of equity infused, comprising 5.2% of the CMP.
We also assign a value of Rs10.9 per share to the 130 acres land bank, over and above the two projects above, with a current market value of Rs3bn, post a 25% haircut. We foresee enormous value unlocking on the development and sale of these properties in future.
Volatility likely to continue
Markets again fell under the grip of bears as volatility, selling pressure, higher than expected Inflation figures and freezing of Cement prices for one year dragged benchmark index to hit a low of 12788.16. Both the key indices yet again witnessed wild gyrations during the trading session with benchmark Sensex swinging over 350 points and NSE Nifty over 100 points. All the sectoral indices except for the BSE Small Cap and the Consumer Durable index ended in red, with BSE FMCG index being the top loser losing 1.64%. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex slipped 164 points to close at 12884. NSE Nifty dropped 43 points to close at 3718.
Idea Cellular opened at Rs92.40 on the BSE as against the issue price of Rs74. The scrip surged by 14% to Rs85 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs92 and a low of Rs85 and recorded volume of over 17,00,00,000 shares on NSE. The Aditya Birla Group Company fixed the issue price at Rs75 per share. The company entered capital market with an IPO of Rs21.25bn. The issue was subscribed 49.51 times.
Nalco edged higher by 0.4% to Rs227 after the company announced that they would pay Rs1.5 per share in interim Dividend. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs230 and a low of Rs222 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.
Patel Engineering edged lower 0.7% to Rs326. The company declared Interim Dividend at 130%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs338 and a low of R322 and recorded volumes of over 28,000 shares on NSE.
Cement stocks were again badly beaten up after cement companies agreed not to raise prices for a year despite higher input prices. ACC declined 6.7% to Rs777, Grasim lost 7.5% to Rs2063, Manglam Cement was locked at 5% lower circuit to Rs150.20, Ultra tech Cement dropped 5.6% to Rs771 and India Cement lost 8.6% to Rs153.
Pharma stocks were in bad health. Cipla lost 3.1% to Rs229, Ranbaxy declined 0.7% to Rs326, Wockhardt lost 1.7% to Rs370 and Cadila shed lower by 0.5% to Rs310.
FMCG stocks also were on the receiving end. Heavy weight ITC declined by over 3.5% to Rs154, Dabur was down 2.1% to Rs89, Britannia edged lower by 0.4% to Rs1234 and HLL was marginally down by 0.25 to Rs183.
Chugh is a chor to Many people. Please keep that in mind before reading his views
March 12, 2007
Though March- early April look to be a good month to BUY; a further short term correction from these levels is not totally ruled out.
The markets have been badly battered in the last one to two months - it has been a across the board fall - be it large, mid or small caps -infact small and mid caps have been the worst hit with many of them loosing 30-50% of their values.
We feel the markets will consolidate over the next few days with increased volatility. The short term bias of the markets looks negative. With fear and uncertainty engulfing minds of investors & March being a month for tax planning and a time when brokerages try to reduce leverage to clients, a further drop from the current levels is not totally ruled out. However, the drop will provide an opportunity to accumulate.
What could trigger a rise :-
¬ Corporate Result Announcements - Announcement of good numbers from corporates and guidance would be a key for lifting the sentiment.
¬ The second and the more important trigger would be indications from the government regarding reigning in inflation & indications on end to high interest rate regime by announcement of appropriate monetary policies. Even a small drop of 25 basis points in interest rates would have a huge positive impact on the market sentiment, since it would signal an end to the uncertainty regarding a continuing high interest rate scenario.
¬ Global Liquidity/ Global Markets- We had seen a selloff in the Indian markets as a part of selloff in markets globally. Improvement in global sentiment would be a trigger for the Indian markets.
What to Do ?
The month of March looks like a good month to make investment and I am sure you will not regret if you look back after a few months - however there could be some more short term pain. Investors can therefore choose to stagger their purchases buying on dips/ on bad days. A short term correction from these levels looks likely and we believe a worst case short term scenario could be a sensex level of around 12000.
For the benefit of our new subscribers, we are giving here the nuances of investing in small and mid cap stocks and a few handy tips for the investors investing in such stocks :-
(Our old subscribers would have read this on earlier occasions too)
Investing in Mid & Small Cap Stocks
A number of our subscribers who have enrolled for Hidden Gems are first time entrants to the world of Equity Investing.
With the volatility being witnessed in the markets currently, many of them get swayed by the sentiment, getting in at the top and then selling out in panic, since everyone on the street starts giving bear market call, making a loss on their investment in the process.
Investors should realize that investing in Small & Mid-sized companies carries greater risk compared to the Large Caps.
Investing in Small & Mid Caps is based on the premise that these companies will increase their earnings and grow into larger, more valuable companies. However, as with all equity investing, there is the risk that a company will not achieve its expected earnings results, or that an unexpected change in the market or within the company will occur, both of which may adversely affect investment results.
Historically, small & mid-cap stocks have experienced greater volatility than other equity asset classes, and they may be less liquid than larger cap stocks. Thus, relative to larger, more liquid stocks, investing in mid-cap stocks involves potentially greater volatility and risk. The biggest risk of equity investing is that returns can fluctuate and investors can lose money.
Midcap stocks in general, trade in lower volumes than large-cap stocks, and this would render them more illiquid. Especially in the event of the market turning bearish, investors find the Small & Mid caps difficult to sell due to the absence of buyers. This may result in the stock price coming down substantially even on slight selling.
Besides, the other factors that increase risk are -
(a) Lack of Information on what's happening in the companies - since in most cases , the information disemmination platform for most companies is the Annual Report. Further, the disadvantage of small & mid caps over large caps is that the media actively covers the large caps.
(b) Earnings Volatility - Owing to their relatively small size, volatile growth/de-growth patterns are almost immediately reflected in their stock prices and valuations of Small/ Mid Caps.
(c) Management Concerns - Incase of many small & Mid-cap companies, the management concern may be a major factor in the minds of shareholders since very less is known & written about them.
A few Handy Tips for the Investors :-
¬ Donot invest in Equities with borrowed funds.
¬ Donot invest with funds which you may require for monthly household expenses or for other important financial commitment over a shorter time period say - daughter's wedding after a few months, child's education, buying a house etc...
¬ Diversify your portfolio, - as they say Do not put all your eggs in one basket.
¬ Keep booking profits on a regular basis.
¬ Contrary to the popular belief, investing in IPO also carries risk - Many investors tend to think that investing in IPO's is totally risk free with the perception that the stock once it starts trading cannot go below the IPO price. Some IPO investors also go to the extent of leveraging their position by putting in a margin towards IPO application with the rest being funded by the bank. The strategy may make good money for them depending upon at what levels the Stock Price opens and the ratio of allotment to the shares applied, however investors have to realise that in the event of the stock price moving down and the ratio of allotment being low, the investor may end up paying a substantial amount to the bank towards interest cost, thereby loosing heavily in the process, in some cases a substantial portion of the capital invested by him. So, with so many IPOs being planned and the promoters becoming greedy wanting the maximum possible premium for their shares, INVESTORS BEWARE.
Profit Booking - The only way to take money back home
Profit booking on a regular basis is a strategy will will take away a lot of pain in the event of a market fall/ correction. We would advise profit booking if the gains come in pretty much pretty soon. There are many cases on stocks recommended to our investors which have appreciated significantly - one can choose to book atleast part profit/ full profit depending upon one's temperament/ risk profile etc. Take for example- Vijay Shanthi Builders, which was recommended at Rs.25-30 & went to a high of Rs.185 only to fall back to Rs.75-80 levels Or Country Club which was recommended at Rs.80 and went on to touch Rs.450 to fall to Rs.250. Or Confidence Petroleum which went up from Rs.2 to Rs.9 to fall back to Rs.5. One could have atleast booked part profits in such stocks. As a thumb rule, we would advise investors to sell atleast 50% of the holdings if the stock appreciates by 75-100% so that there is less pain in case of a market fall. And incase the stock appreciates significantly even from your sale levels, you still can enjoy profits on your balance holdings
The market is likely to edge higher with data showing stepping up of buying by FIIs and on firm Asian markets. Asia-Pacific share markets rose on Monday, continuing a recovery from a recent slide after US jobs data reassured investors about the health of the world's biggest economy. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Japan were up by between 0.55% to 1%.
The US economy added 97,000 jobs in February, slightly below expectations, data showed on Friday, but jobs growth for previous months was revised up and the unemployment rate fell. US blue chip stocks inched up on Friday, helped by the jobs data, but the growing financial woes of firms operating at the riskier end of the mortgage market capped broader gains. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 15.62 points or 0.13% to settle at 12,276.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended nearly unchanged at 2,387.55.
FIIs have resumed buying since the past three days, after their heavy sales since late-February 2007. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 115.80 crore on Thursday 8 March 2007, the day when Sensex had surged 470 points. As per provisional data, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 412 crore on Friday 9 March, the day when Sensex had lost 164 points.
FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 241 crore in index-based futures on Friday. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 114 crore in individual stock futures on that day.
Mutual funds are sitting on cash, thanks to collections from some of the recent new fund offers and they may step up purchases on declines. However, the latest data shows that mutual funds are in selling mode. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 40 crore on Thursday 8 March, the day when Sensex had surged 470 points. They had pressed sales worth a net Rs 379.56 crore on Wednesday (7 March 2007), the day when the Sensex had lost 177 points in volatile trade.
Market Grape Wine :
In House :
Nifty at a support of 3684 & 3655 & 3625 with resistance at 3781 & 3812 &
3840 levels .
Sell : Drreddy below 655 target 641 s/l 662
Sell : Wipro below 560 taregt 545 s/l 567
Markets to be range bound with no major triggers with short covering at
lower levels not ruled out .
Positive opening with pressure at higher levels .
Buying in Cement at lower levels not ruled out .
Out House :
Sensex at a support of 12786 & 12696 levels with resistance at 13113 &
13223 levels .
Buy : RIL & RelCap
Buy : Infy & Sataym
Buy : Polaris & Mphasis
Buy : EKC , Gitanjali , Praj & IDBI
Buy : ACC & Grasim at dips
Buy : SBIN , IciciBank & UTIBank at dips
Buy : Unitech , Ivrcl & NagarConst
Dark Horse : RIL , Sbin , UtiBank , Gitanjali , ACC , Gacl , BajajHind ,
EKC & PRAJ
The market may open on a positive note following the recovery in the US markets from the previous week's battering and strong Asian indices in the morning trades. However, caution should be maintained on account of the prevalence of a sharp intra-day volatility. Action could be seen in cement stocks after the government's decision to control on the prices hike for the next one year. Among the local indices, the Nifty could test higher levels around the 3775 level and has a support in the 2660-3572 range. The Sensex on the downside may slip to 12800 and may face resistance at 13000.
US indices witnessed a sharp turnaround towards the close after exhibiting sharp volatility during intra-day trades. While the Dow Jones advanced by 16 points at 12276, the Nasdaq moved marginally down at 2388.
All Indian ADRs were losers except Patni Computer on the US bourses. MTNL fell sharply and tumbled over 3% while VSNL, Tata Motors, Infosys, Satyam, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Dr Reddy's and Rediff declined around 1-2% each while Patni Computers gained around a percent and Wipro remained unchanged.
The Nymex light crude oil for April delivery slipped by $1.59 to close at $60.05. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for April series declined $3.50 to settle at $652 a troy ounce.