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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Market Close : Fed leads smart recovery


It was a good day for the markets which saw biggest single day gain of over 1200 points and finally ended with substantial gains. After few turmoil sessions in Indian markets today it saw a clear bounced back after US fed cuts rate by 0.75 Bps. Even Asian markets also responded smartly. Rate cut by US will lead to more money inflow into emerging markets as to leverage the arbitrage available between economies. Markets with this perception continued its upward journey in green. Major large caps especially in the FnO segment which were smashed in the break down rally bounced back with vigor with superb gains. Investors and traders which saw red blood in recent sessions remained cautious. Value buying was seen across the board as long term investors saw this fall as an ?opportunity?. Realty and Power counter were the frontliners followed by other sectors. All other sectoral indices were up over 4% Hang Seng ended up 2330 points (+10%) while Asian indices ended in green. Europe is trading weak under cautious mood.

Sensex closed up by 864 points at 17594.07.It was helped up by gains in Rel Energy (1989.95,+16 percent), NTPC (223.7,+14 percent), Satyam (393.1,+11 percent), TCS (867.1,+8 percent) and RIL (2554.8501,+8 percent). Restricting the gains were Bharti Tele (846.75, 0 percent)

Titan posted good set of numbers for Q3 FY2007-08. Revenue stood at Rs.802 crs with an annualised growth of 52% led by higher gold prices. EBITDA margins stood at 6.2% vs 11% on yoy basis which were a bit disappointing, due to high gold prices. PAT stood at 31crs up by 6% compared to same period last year. Margins tend to be reduced in a high gold price scenario as making charges are not related to gold prices. Making charges are of fixed nature for the gold jewelry in terms of Rs/per gm for the pure gold jewelry. Titan is the largest player with 50% market share among organised player followed by HMT in watches.Titan has strong brand and now its trying to leverage on this. The new segment that the company intends to cater is exciting. There is a risk though. We have been positive on Titan for a while and the stock has lived upto expectations. Post the recent fall the stock seem more attractive to get in. It seems good bet. Do read our note to know more?

Greenply continued its superb performance. Top line grew by 39% to Rs.139crs. EBITDA improved significantly on yoy basis as the plant streamlined. The company is basically a interior infrastructure company manufacturing plywood and laminates. Unorganised sector was the major road block to growth but Greenply has managed well to overcome this. Greenply is a bet on growth in housing and commercial office. Increasing earning and desire for better standard of living makes Greenply a perfect play on lifestyle. So far unorganised sector was a spoiled brat but with implementation of VAT there the unorganised sector clearly faces strong headwinds. Greenply is the undisputed leader here. The stock has performed will since our coverage and we remain positive on this one. Do read our note.

Technically Speaking: Sensex managed to record the highest ever gains in its history. Sensex made an intra day high of 17997 and low of 16951. The breadth was taken over by Declines as there were 1401 Declines against 1302 Advances. Market turnover was low at Rs 7099 crs. Sensex was on a pullback rally. We expect this rally to get over near 18900. Traders are advised to sell on rise.