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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Pre Session Commentary - Sep 16 2008


The Indian Market is expected to have negative opening as US markets closed in deep red and Asian markets are trading extremely lower. On Monday, domestic markets ended sharply lower after going through bloodbath for throughout of trading session on the back of negative global market led by credit crisis in the US financial space. Markets tanked in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ collapse and Merrill Lynch’s sale to Bank of America. Terror attacks in New Delhi also fueled to the investor’s negative attitude. Indian markets opened on weak note tracking negative global cues. Further markets extended its losses and continued to lose ground. European markets also tumbled on Lehman woes. Though some recovery was happened during final trading on the back of news that China''s central bank, has cut benchmark lending rates by 27 basis points to 7.20%, on 15 September 2008,. The People''s Bank of China (PBOC) also cut the reserve requirement for all except the country''s five biggest banks and the Postal Savings Bank by 1%. This recovery did not helped the markets much as still closed with heavy losses. From the sectoral front, rate sensitive sectors Reality and IT stocks witnessed ended with huge loss of more than 7% and 5% respectively. Followed by, Metal, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods and Bank stocks who also remained out of favour. Mid cap and Small cap stocks also witnesses most of the selling pressure as lost more than 4%. The BSE Sensex closed lower by 469.54 points at 13,531.27 and NSE Nifty ended down by 215.55 points at 4,072.90. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 248.55 points at 5,288.59 and by 331.07 points at 6,380.47. We expect that market will continue its losing trend during the trading session.

On the global front Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection in US. Along with that AIG was a bigger concern for the markets as facing liquidity crunch and seeking $40 billion loan from Federal Reserve to raise capital. American International Group Inc sank 61% and Washington Mutual Inc. decreased 27%. Further, Bank of America agreed to buy Merill Lynch at a premium $29 per share as compared to the last closing price of $17 per share.

On Monday, the US market closed in deep red on Lehman''s bankruptcy. Crude has slipped to 7 month low on demand concerns after Lehman Brothers has filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Crude oil for October delivery fell $5.47 to settle at $95.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which was oil''s first settlement under $100 since March 4. Earlier, prices dipped to $94.13, the lowest trading level in seven months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower by 504.48 points to close at 10,917.51 followed by the NASDAQ index ended down by 81.36 points at 2,179.91 and the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 59.00 points or 4.71%, which is largest one-day percent drop since the first session following the attacks on September 11, 2001, to close at 1,192.70.

Indian ADRs ended lower. In technology sector, Satyam ended lower by (14.37%) followed by Patni Computers dropped by (11.15%), Wipro plunged (6.93%) and Infosys lost (6.55%). In banking sector ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank lost (12.53%) and (10.48%). In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication and MTNL plunged (7.74%) and (6.80%). Sterlite industries decreased by (10.45%).

Today the major stock markets in Asia crashed. Hang Seng index plunged 1,261.57 points at 18,091.33 along with Japan’s Nikkei trading weak by 618.67 points at 11,596.09, Taiwan Weighted lost 304.89 points at 5,747.56 and Singapore''s Straits fell 59.46 points at 2,427.09.

The FIIs on Monday stood as net seller in equity and net buyer in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs2,687.80 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs399.80 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs3,544.30 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs146.60Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was (Rs856.40) Crore and net debt was Rs253.20 Crore.

The rupee tumbled for fifth consecutive session to a two-year low on Monday of Rs 46 against the US dollar, its weakest since 2 October 2006. It ended at 46.04/05 against September 12 close of 45.74.

Today, Nifty has support at 3,816 and resistance at 4,120 and BSE Sensex has support at 12,719 and resistance at 13,727.