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Sunday, November 30, 2008

Monthly Technicals - Dec 1 2008


Monthly Technicals - Dec 1 2008

My Portfolio - Nov 30 2008




To see previous week's portfolio and earlier portfolios - Please click on the My Portfolio label below

Banks to further cut lending rates


Auto and home loan seekers can expect further cut in the lending rates with the public sector banks gearing up for the second round of cut in the benchmark lending rates by up to 50 basis points during December.

Banks have already started reducing the deposit rates and with more liquidity infusion by the Reserve Bank there would be more scope for cutting lending rates to spur demand, said a senior banker.

Banks have started assessing asset liability situation in the light of the cuts in deposit rate coming into effect from next week, he said.

Another senior banker said, further cut in Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) in between 25-50 basis points by various banks is likely to be announced in December.

In the first round, several public sector banks have reduced their BPLR by 75 basis points following an appeal by the Finance Minister P Chidambaram earlier in the month.

Chidambaram had said lowering of lending rates by the state-owned banks would also put competitive pressure on their private sector counterparts to announce similar cuts.

"Competition from public sector banks will force private sector banks to reduce their lending rates sooner than later. It will happen sooner than later," Chidambaram had said.

Taking the lead, country's second largest lender Punjab National Bank has already decided to reduce BPLR by 100 basis points to 12.5 per cent, which would automatically reduce PLR-linked loans by the same margin.

The revised BPLR will be applicable to all existing and new accounts, PNB said, adding, the decision to reduce rate was taken "in response to monetary measures taken by RBI in November such as reduction of repo rate from 8 to 7.5 per cent, CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) from 6 to 5.5 per cent and SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) from 25 to 24 per cent."

The first round of lending rate cut by Punjab National Bank came into effect during the first week of November.

The BPLR was then revised downward by 50 basis points to 13.5 per cent.

Currently, most of the banks have BPLR around 13 per cent.

The reduction of interest rates by the PSU banks follows a number of steps taken by the RBI to inject into the banking system Rs 2,70,000 crore since October and cuts in the short-term (repo) rates, signaling soft interest rate regime.

SBI - Buy


Investors looking for a large-cap stock which will add value to their portfolio can consider accumulating the State Bank of India stock in declines. Beaten down valuations, strong financials in an extremely challenging macro environment, with sustainable growth in advances, make the bank stock attractive.

At the current market price of Rs 1086, the stock trades at a modest trailing 12-month PEM of 8.5, at 1.4 times its March book value, without assuming any value for subsidiaries.

Though the bank trades at a premium to all public sector banks, this appears justified given the size of its balance-sheet and the huge market share, despite which it has delivered better financial performance than its peers. Market share for the bank has improved in recent quarters.

A high proportion of low-cost deposits, a corporate loan focus, scope for merger gains from consolidation and strong ‘other income’ growth are key triggers to earnings growth over the next few quarters. The bank has a return on equity (ROE) of 16.75 per cent and ROA of 1.01 per cent for FY-08 and is expected to maintain these this year.

Financials

The net profit of SBI (standalone) has grown at 16.7 per cent, compounded annually in the last five years. In the first half of FY-09, it reported a 28 per cent net profit growth.

The growth in profits can be attributed to strong advances growth of 31 per cent in a year which, in turn, helped net interest income growth of 29 per cent.

Advance growth was driven mainly by growth in advances to corporates and SMEs.

Though the bank hiked its PLR by 75 bps at the start of the September quarter, it managed to improve its market share in advances from 15.61 per cent to 16.01 per cent sequentially.

The PLR hike helped improve the net interest margins (3.16 per cent) both quarter-on-quarter and over the last year. A high proportion of low-cost deposits (40 per cent) helped in containing the cost of funds.

In the first half of the fiscal, non-interest income growth of 49 per cent was helped by growth in core fee income. Fee-income growth can be partly due to the increase in processing fee for various products. The bank’s operating expenses have grown marginally by 13 per cent due to staff costs and employee provisions.

Operating profits of the bank increased by 60 per cent y-o-y but the growth couldn’t be translated into net profit growth due to higher provisioning requirements for bond depreciation and provisions for NPA (Rs 911 crore). However, there might be write-backs in the bond portfolio in the coming quarters, on the back of falling yields.

Gross NPA/advances of the bank have come down from 3.07 per cent to 2.51 per cent in a year but is still high compared to most of its peers. The provisioning coverage of the bank at 47 per cent is among the lowest and may make it more vulnerable to any deterioration in asset quality.
other businesses

The merger with State Bank of Saurashtra in the current fiscal has come with lot of opposition, which affected the day-to-day operations of the banks. SBI has to provide for Rs 370 crore as a past service liability with respect to provident fund and pension liabilities for the merging operations.

The bank is expected to merge six other associate banks (such as State Bank of Hyderabad, State Bank of Patiala and Indore), after a review of this merger. The associate banks posted a net profit of Rs 978 crore, about 30 per cent of SBI’s standalone profits, and have scope for improving margins on the back of better efficiencies.
Outlook

SBI lowered its PLR in November, following the rate cut and other liquidity-easing measures by the RBI. That the deposit rate cut is lower than the lending rate cut may put pressure on net interest margin in coming quarters. But the spreads between lending rates between PSU banks and private banks are now so high that PSU banks may continue to sustain stronger advances growth. Such a shift is already noticeable with retail advances.

While private banks have been going slow on these advances, PSBs have seized the opportunity to lend aggressively.

SBI has 10,764 branches; the bank plans to open another 1,000 branches in FY-09. That may aid the banks’ efforts to attract low-cost deposits. With more than 98 per cent of branches of SBI CBS-enabled, processing times may also fall drastically.

Fee income avenues such as cross-selling of products are largely untapped for SBI and the potential to grow is, therefore, high.

Right now, the bank’s ‘other income’ is only 30 per cent of the net revenues (as much as 50 per cent for private banks). Over the long term, listing of the insurance business may also unlock value for the bank. Of the advances, 80 per cent is are un-rated, which earlier attracted a 150 per cent risk-weight, but now attract only a 100 per cent weight.

This will temporarily help in improving the capital adequacy ratio of the bank. The bank intends to get these un-rated accounts rated in the near future.

The lowering of standard advances provisioning to 0.4 per cent of total assets, may also see reduced provisioning in future.
Risks to earnings

Employee costs are set to increase as the bank plans to recruit 25,000 people this fiscal.

Slippages in asset quality and a relatively low capital adequacy ratio (11.51 per cent) are concerns which the bank has to address in the coming quarters.

The loss incurred in the card business and retail portfolio can aggravate, if tough macro conditions persist.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Terrorist Incidents during current Govt


August 15, 2004 - Bomb explodes in Assam, killing 16 people, mostly school children. 16 killed

2005 - Jaunpur train bombing

July 5, 2005 - Shri Ram Janmabhoomi attack in Ayodhya 0 killed

October 29, 2005 - Three powerful serial blasts in New Delhi at different places just two days before Hindu festival Deepawali. 70 killed

March 7, 2006 - Three synchronized terrorist attacks in Varanasi in Shri Sankatmochan Mandir and Varanasi Cantonment Railway Station. 21 killed

July 11, 2006 - Series of 7 train bombing during the evening rush hour in Mumbai. 209 killed

September 8, 2006 - Series of bomb blasts in the vicinity of a mosque in Malegaon, Maharashtra 37 killed

18 February 2008 - - Samjhauta Express bombings

May 18, 2008 - - At least 13 people were killed, including 4 killed by the Indian police in the rioting that followed, in the bombing at Mecca Masjid, Hyderabad that took place during the Friday prayers. 13 killed

August 25, 2008 - - Two blasts in Hyderabad's Lumbini park and a restaurant. The police reportedly managed to find and defuse another bomb in the same area. 42 killed

May 13, 2008 9 bomb blasts along 6 areas in Jaipur. 63 killed

July 25, 2008 8 low intensity bomb blasts in Bangalore. 2 killed

July 26, 2008 17 serial bomb blasts in Ahmedabad. 29 killed

September 13, 2008 5 bomb blasts in Delhi markets. 21 killed

September 27, 2008 Bombings at Mehrauli area 2 bomb blasts in Delhi flower market. 1 killed

September 29, 2008 10 killed and 80 in bombings in Maharashtra and Gujarat bomb blasts.

October 1, 2008 Agartala bombing. 4 killed

October 21, 2008 Imphal bomb blast. 17 killed

October 30, 2008 Assam bomb blast. 77 killed

November 26, 2008 Coordinated attack in Mumbai. 195 killed

Mumbai under ATTACK - PHOTOS






See more Photos here

India Politics - Analysis - Jagannathan


This is a post by a member in one of the forums - Intriguing read


By Jagannathan

I have been very hesitant to post on political topics over here, simply because I have perceived this to be a place to discuss investment/equity market/economic topics and make ourself better informed and well off financially.. but this should be an exception.

At outset, let me say I wholly agree with you. Diversity of our country is our biggest strength and we must all try to maintain this at every cost. Fairplay is needed and crime and terrorism by any group should be treated alike. The little minorities dont really cause a threat to the majority religion, but add value to our overall understanding of our national heritage.

Having said that let me add this. This is purely my perception, apologies if i am wrong . AFAIK, the supporters of BJP/NDA are not all Anti -minorities . There are a number of reasons why people vote for them/support them. One of the foremost one IMHO is the lack of a serious "Non Socialist/Non Leftist/Non Family based" Right of center alternative . Our country was always one of the most well off in the past (notwitstanding our varous social problems , that is why British came here and ruled us). Now 61 years latter, we are very much at bottom of every index globally. We are a third world nation and we are there for too long. Why ? The hard reality is that our socialist and leftist orientation - NAM, Gubberment Micromanagement of economy, freebies, reservation without restraints and selective appeasement of groups (castes/religion/region) ,subsidies for everyone, has led to this. And a big of this mess is due to our current ruling party and family (which has ruled directly or indirectly 52 years and has ruled for almost entire history in some states like Maharashtra). The NDA rule was not a golden era, but they did get us on a different path on some things - NHAI, Telecom reforms and disinvestment and deregulation and Kalam.. for first time we moved forward (or atleast started). No wonder some people vote them, since they are seen as a breath of fresh air from 50 + years of socialist stink.

The culture of leftism that has been forcibly imposed has led to a huge lot of dissatisfaction. It is even now seen as a crime to speak against reservation (without restraints), against free enterprise and against subsidies. It is a crime to speak against women's reservation , against DV bill and like. Add to it the perception of selective favouritsm aka votebank politics - be it UCC or Afzal Guru or Jamia or Haj Subsidy or DV Act or Creamy Layer Politics , Bangla Illegals, 370 Article, Sachar Commission, Classical Language status and selective appeasement and selective importance to some languages, some countries,some festivals and states , you have a huge set of population that gets provoked. Add to it the irresponsible statements by someone most respected like MMS (Minorites get first right on national resources and like ) ...

Wish we had responsible conservative law abiding right of center party, which we dont have. The only thing they fall back on is the BJP/NDA. Poor choice indeed.

I dont say it is right and all... but the lack of alternatives in Indian democracy is sad. Even worse is our English Media, which seems to be obsessed with likes of Arundathi Roy and Pankaj Mishra and Chetan Bhagat and Javed and like people who are most divorced (culturally) from what Indians want for. So you know when all this happens, the elements like BD/MNS and like find a ready audience.

What is the solution? Some genuine alternative to the Identity and Socialist politics that has ruled us for most of our 60 years.Somebody who agrees that excessive government , susbidies, loan waivers, reservation, legal excesses (like Domestic Violence Act), are not the solution. We mus strive to correct our flaws of past (untouchability et al) , but that should go hand in hand with protecting our heritage (festivals, monuments like Sethu). Some party that takes conservative position, strives to protect heritage of our country, our country's identity , puts ahead of national interest (ahead of NAM and other Nehruvian disasters), and at same time accepts diversity of our country. Using tax revenues for well being of not well off is not a crime, but let it done by sensible ways (build more schools rather than IITs, link rivers rather than loan waivers, use more thrift instead of more tax) .And someone who believes that taking revenge on a segment of population because their ancestors were doing wrong, is not the way to build a civilised nation. Someone who believes in worshiping good policies than good personalities.Someone who agrees to limit free speech to curb hate speech and hateful literature (Taslima/MFH etc) because human lives are more important than artistic freedom .

I dont think any of our ruling politicians or our intellectuals or media can understand all this.... Anyway, At an individual level we can strive to follow these good principles . We are a relationship based society (and not a rule based society like west) and so individuals can also play their 2 cent role in understanding each other better and keep hoping things improve.

Mumbai Emergency Contact Numbers


Please save this for your future reference. Wish we could get similar numbers for all the other cities

Emergency contact numbers in Mumbai for the public:


1. Police hotline 100
2. BMC Disaster Management Cell 22694725
3. Blood Banks 1910
4. Ambulance Services 1298
5. General Complaints 1916
6. Railway Any Emergency 23004000
7. Travel Agents Mumbai 149
8. Airport Police Helpline 28225709
9. Indian Red Cross Society for Blood bank 22663560
10. Missing Persons Bureau 22621547
11. Police Control Room Helpline 22620111, 22151855
12. Traffic Control Room Helpline 24937747, 24937755
13. Mantralaya Nariman Point Helpline 22024243
14. Collector of Bombay 22661231
15. Traffic Helpline 25181717
16. J J Hospital Blood Bank: Dr. Ganesh, Dr.Nair -- 022 23739400
17. Bombay Hospital: Ms Purohit -- 22067676 Extn 216
18. St George Hospital Direct Blood Bank: Tarun - 22620344
19. Taj Hotel: 022-66574322, 022-66574372, 1800 111 825
20. Trident Hotel: 022-23890606

For Blood Donors: Call 922 222 1947 and tell them you want to donate blood. They' ll get back to you when someone needs it OR Send an sms - type BLOOD and send it to 96000 97000, donor will call for donation

India Auto Sector


India Auto Sector

India Strategy


India Strategy

Indraprastha Gas, Siemens India


Indraprastha Gas, Siemens India

Hindustan Unilever


Hindustan Unilever

Firstsource Solutions


Firstsource Solutions

Balrampur Chini


Balrampur Chini

India Financial Sector


India Financial Sector

MTNL


MTNL

SAIL


SAIL

Triveni Engineering


Triveni Engineering

Time Technoplast


Time Technoplast

Dabur India


Dabur India

Axis Bank


Axis Bank

Eveninger - Nov 28 2008


Eveninger - Nov 28 2008

Gwalior Chemical Industries


Gwalior Chemical Industries

Reliance Industries


Reliance Industries

Friday, November 28, 2008

Post Session Commentary - Nov 28 2008


The domestic market managed to end in green due to the buying support on key stocks led by better-than-expected economic growth data which stood at 7.60% for Q2. Earlier volatility was witnessed during the trading on the expiry day of derivative contracts for the November 2008 series along with terror attacks. Sentiments were already weak on global financial crises, which resulted heavy outflow of foreign capital. However, expectation of further rate cut by RBI gathered momentum. Recovery was also led by IT stocks on weaker rupee. Market opened on lower on the back of the terrorist attack in Mumbai and suddenly turned choppy due to the expiry of the November 2008 derivate contracts today. Further market continued to trade with instability and dropped in afternoon on reports of fresh firing outside the Chattrapati Shivaji Terminus (CST) rail terminus. Finally denial of this report along with recovery in Asian markets and slightly higher Dow futures boosted key benchmark indices to day''s high. NSE Nifty ended above 2,700 mark and BSE Sensex above 9,000 level. From the sectoral front, most of the buying was observed in IT, teck, Auto, FMCG and Bank stocks. However, Reality, Metal, PSU and Oil & Gas stocks contributed to the negative sentiments. Midcap stocks joined the upward journey while Small cap stocks remained out of favour.

Among the Sensex pack 16 stocks ended in green territory and 14 in red. The market breadth was negative as 1114 stocks closed in red while 915 stocks closed in green and 64 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 66 points at 9,092.72 and NSE Nifty ended marginally up by 2.85 points at 2,775.10. The BSE Mid Caps ended with gain of 8.38 points at 2,885.76 while and BSE Small Caps closed with loss 10.28 points at 3,304.61. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,157.62 and intraday low of 8,889.18.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are TCS Ltd (5.89%), BHEL (4.78%), Infosys (4.49%), M&M Ltd (4.47%), HDFC (3.34%), Satyam Computer (2.60%), Sterlite Industries (2.58%), Bharti Airtel (2.50%), Tata Power (2.18%), HDFC Bank (1.46%) and Hindalco (0.95%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Reliance infra (3.26%), L&T Ltd (3.14%), Grasim Indus (3.03%), NTPC Ltd (2.86%), Tata steel (2.55%), Tata Motors (2.43%), Ranbaxy Lab (2.05%), Relinace Communication Ltd (1.71%) and SBI (1.58%).

Indian economy grew at 7.60% for the second quarter of FY09 as against 9.3% (YoY) and 7.9% (QoQ). The services sector growth was at 9.6% from 10.5% in the year ago period. The construction growth for the second quarter stood at 9.7% from 11.8% of previous year.

The BSE IT index gained (3.67%) or 90.49 points to close at 2,558.94. Major gainers are Patni Computer (13.95%), TCS Ltd (5.89%), NIIT Ltd (5.56%), Infosys (4.49%), Moser Bayer (3.39%) and Oracle Fin (2.84%).

The BSE Teck index ended higher by (2.45%) or 47.80 points at 2,001.63 as Patni Computer (13.95%), TCS Ltd (5.89%), NIIT Ltd (5.56%), Infosys (4.49%), IBN18 (3.97%) and Moser Bayer (3.39%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Auto index advanced by (1.43%) or 32.81 points to close at 2,330.56 Gainers are Amtek Auto (14.77%), Cummins Indi (5.22%), M&M Ltd (4.47%), Hero Honda Motors (3.37%), Maruti Suzuki (0.67%) and Exide Indus (0.64%).

The BSE Reality index ended lower by (0.97%) or 15.26 points at 1,561.01. Major losers are Unitech Ltd (10.81%), Ansal Infra (5.10%), Pheonix Mill (4.28%), Orbit Co (3.78%) and Mahindra Life (2.00%).

The BSE Metal index dropped by (0.84%) or 37.34 points to close at 4,383.38. Losers are Nalco (7.95%), Welspan Gujarat Sr (7.73%), Hindustan Zinc (3.10%), JSW Steel (2.82%), SAIL (2.77%) and NMDC Ltd (2.74%).

The BSE PSU index lost (0.77%) or 35.53 points to close at 4,585.53. Losers are Chennai Petroleum (5.89%), Neyveli LIG (5.80%), Allahabad Bank (3.85%), IDBI Bank (3.50%), Corporation (3.40%) and NTPC Ltd (2.86%).

Sensex shrugs terror threat; regains 9,000 mark in highly volatile trade


Key benchmark indices eked out modest gains in a highly volatile trading session on reports that the operation to flush out terrorists at three spots in Mumbai was nearing end. Volatility was intense ahead of expiry of November 2008 derivative contracts. Expectations of a further rate cut by the central bank also supported the market. The BSE Sensex regained the psychological 9,000 level in highly volatile trade

A denial by the Railways of shooting taking place near the Chhattrapati Shivaji Terminus (CST) station in Mumbai lifted the market in mid-afternoon trade. Earlier, two television channels had reported firing at the station which had pulled the market lower in afternoon trade.

After battling terrorists for two days at the Oberoi-Trident hotel in Mumbai, the National Security Guards today cleared the hotel of terrorists, killing two of them while six bodies were recovered from the premises. Reports suggest that the operation to flush out terrorist at two other spots viz. the Nariman House and at Taj Hotel near the Gateway of India, is at a final stage. The battle between the police and terrorists was still going on in these two spots, more than 36 hours after the terror attacks in Mumbai on Wednesday, 26 November 2008

But the market breadth was negative as the terror attacks weighed on the sentiments which has already been hit by heavy outflow of foreign capital as a result of the global financial crisis which has hit markets worldwide.

Expectations of further cut in interest rates in India gathered momentum after Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram Monday, 24 November 2008, said monetary policy was biased towards stimulating growth and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was likely to lower rates further as inflation cooled. Lower interest rates boost stocks as lower borrowing costs help lift corporate profits.

With corporate India forced to compete with the government domestically for raising finance, interest rates cannot drop meaningfully till either growth slows and demand for credit cools or the RBI continues to provide liquidity to banks, aggressively cutting interest rates, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) - the percentage of deposits banks have to keep with the central bank and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) - the percentage of deposits bank have to hold in government and other approved securities.

India's economy grew at 7.6% in the September 2008 quarter from a year earlier, at its slowest pace in nearly four years as it battered by high borrowing costs, data released today morning showed.

The slowdown in the Indian economy and reduced availability and rising cost of funds are taking their toll on the performance of the corporate sector. Moreover, companies which have resorted to substantial overseas borrowing are seeing increase in cost of servicing the loan due to depreciation rupee which hit a record low of 50.60 against the dollar on 20 November 2008. Some companies have cut production to avoid higher inventories.

Volatility was high. After an initial fall caused by the terror attacks, the market bounced back with the global rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) stating that attacks were an isolated case and that it does not expect any negative implications on India's macro economic activities or the government's fiscal position from the attacks.

After moving in a narrow range, the market weakened again in early afternoon trade before bouncing back in the green in afternoon trade as as the latest data showed the economy grew at a slowest paces in nearly years. The market once again weakened TV reports of firing outside CST rail station. Railways' denial of the firing at CST lifted the market again in mid-afternoon trade. The BSE Sensex swung 268.44 points between the day's high and low.

Adding to the volatility was the November 2008 derivatives expiry today, 28 November 2008. As per reports, the Nifty rollover of positions from November 2008 series to December 2008 series stood at 54% while marketwide rollover was 60%, by end of trading on Wednesday, 26 November 2008. The stock exchanges had to postpone expiry of November 2008 contracts as the markets were shut on Thursday after the terror attacks. The November contracts were to expire on Thursday. All the financial and commodity markets remained shut on Thursday, 27 November 2008, after the major terror strikes in India's financial capital.

European markets slipped as investors paused for breath following the stellar gains over the week. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France slipped between 0.69% and 1.14%. Trading in US futures indicated the Dow could fall 40 points at the opening bell.

Asian markets rose on bargain hunting after recent heavy losses. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea were up by between 0.15% and 2.48%. However China's Shanghai Composite slipped 2.44%.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 66 points or 0.73% to 9,092.72. The Sensex opened 137.54 points lower at 8,889.18, which was also its day's low. At the day's high of 9,157.62, the Sensex gained 130.90 points in mid-afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty rose 2.85 points or 0.10% to 2755.10, underperforming the Sensex, weighed by non-Sensex stocks. All the top 3 Nifty losers Unitech (down 11.30%), National Aluminium (down 7.74%), and Zee Entertainment (down 4.60%), don't form part of the 30-share Sensex pack.

The barometer index BSE Sensex is down 11194.27 points or 55.17% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 12114.05 points or 57.12% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative on BSE with 1258 shares declining as compared with 1061 that rose. 84 shares remained unchanged.

Among the broader indices, the BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.29% to 2,885.76 while the BSE Small-Cap index fell 10.28 points or 0.31% to 3,304.61.Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The turnover was sharply down. The total turnover on the BSE amounted to Rs 2383 crore as compared to Rs 3233 crore on Wednesday, 26 November 2008.

Sectoral indices on BSE displayed mixed trend. However only the BSE FMCG index (up 0.82% to 1,936.60), the BSE IT index (up 3.67% to 2,558.94), the BSE Auto index (up 1.43% to 2,330.56), the BSE Teck index (up 2.45% to 2,001.63), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.53% to 5,618.16), the Bankex (up 0.44% to 4,645.40), BSE Realty index (down 0.97% to 1,561.03), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.28% to 6,387.32), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.38% to 1,793.56), the BSE HealthCare index (up 0.30% to 2,887.83), the BSE PSU index (down 0.77% to 4,585.83), the BSE Power index (down 0.04% to 1,631.69), the BSE Metal index (down 0.74% to 4,383.38) underperformed the Sensex.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 16 advanced while the rest declined. NTPC (down 3.74% to Rs 158.15), Grasim (down 4.03% to Rs 880), and Ranbaxy (down 2.63% to Rs 207.60), edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Bharti Airtel (up 2.46% to Rs 670.80), Hindalco (up 1.81% to Rs 53.50), and Tata Power (up 1.20% to Rs 662.70), edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Most IT pivotals advanced on a weaker rupee. India's largest software services exporter TCS jumped 6.63% to Rs 561.95. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack

Infosys Technologies (up 4.95% to Rs 1246), Satyam Computer Services (up 2.68% to Rs 243.20), rose. However India's third largest software services exporter Wipro was down 0.41% to Rs 240 after striking day's high of Rs 252.

The rupee weakened today, 28 November 2008 in the wake of terrorists attacks and heavy demand for the US currency from importers. The partially convertible rupee was at 49.72/74, compared with Wednesday's close of 49.89/90 per dollar. A weak rupee benefits IT firms as they derive a lion's share of revenue from exports.

India's top power equipment maker by sales, Bharat Heavy Electricals surged 5.65% to Rs 1374 on reports the company intends to acquire companies in the non-conventional energy and transmission businesses to more than double its turnover to Rs 50000 crore in the next five years.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) saw high volatility in late trade. It ended 0.10% lower at Rs 1136.15, after striking a high of Rs 1164.70. Earlier the stock rebounded sharply from the day's low of Rs 1037. Recent reports suggested the company wants to restart selling petrol and diesel after margins on the two fuels turned positive. The Mukesh Ambani-run company had reportedly shut all of its 1,432 petrol pumps around March 2008 after it could not compete with public sector companies, who sold fuel at rates much lower than their cost, as they got government subsidies.

Auto shares rose on hopes lower interest rates would spur demand which is mainly driven by finance. Mahindra & Mahindra (up 3.86% to Rs 280), and Maruti Suzuki India (up 1.07% to Rs 538), gained.

However India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors lost 2.54% to Rs 136.20 on reports the company is shedding up to 3,000 temporary jobs at its Pune factory, weeks after its decision to cut production and dismiss a similar number of temporary workers at its Jamshedpur plant. The latest cuts could take the overall layoffs to around 6,000 workers.

Private sector banking shares reversed early losses on hopes of a rate cut by the central bank following a further fall in inflation. ICICI Bank (up 0.71% to Rs 353, off day's low of Rs 331), HDFC Bank (up 0.73% to Rs 913.85, off day's low of Rs 882.30), rose. However India's largest state-run bank by assets State Bank of India was down 1.85% to Rs 1083.90. The stock came off the day's low of Rs 1061.25

Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) rose 8.84% in the 12 months to 15 November 2008, a tad below the previous week's annual rise of 8.9%, data released by the government on Thursday, 27 November 2008, showed. Inflation has been softening ever since it struck a 16-year peak of 12.91% on 2 August 2008.

India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries rose 0.97% to Rs 233.25, extending Wednesday's over 12% surge on recent reports the company is still eyeing Asarco, which operates three copper mines in Arizona, but an agreement could only be reached at a substantially reduced price. Sterlite originally offered $2.6 billion to buy Asarco but withdrew from the deal in October 2008 because of falling metals prices.

Steel shares declined after reports steel makers JSW Steel, Ispat Industries and Essar Steel are likely to slash prices of steel in the spot market by 5-6% or Rs 2,000 per tonne next month. India's largest private sector steel maker by sales Tata Steel slipped 2.87% to Rs 150.45. Sail (down 3.50% to Rs 66.25), JSW Steel (down 1.83% to Rs 190.05), Ispat Industries (down 1.08% to Rs 10.08), slipped.

Real estate stocks declined on reports property prices may remain soft as global economic crisis shatters home buyers' confidence. DLF (down 0.15% to Rs 198.10), Unitech (down 9.27% to Rs 23.50), and Ansal Infrastructure (down 1.89% to Rs 25.95), dropped.

Infrastructure stocks were pounded on reports technical evaluation will delay Rs 65,000 crore National Highway Authority of India projects. Reliance Infrastructure (down 2.41% to Rs 507), Larsen & Toubro (down 2.99% to Rs 728.10), and Lanco Infratech (down 1.60% to Rs 111.05), GMR Infrastructure (down 2.28% to Rs 53.55), slipped.

Hospitality shares dropped after the two main hotels -- Taj Mahal Hotel and Oberoi-Trident in Mumbai were hit by the terror attacks. Indian Hotels Company, which operates the Taj group of hotels, plunged 16.20% Rs 40.60. Advani Hotel (down 18.42% to Rs 26.35), Viceroy Hotels (down 4.84% to Rs 28.50), declined. However EIH, which operators the Oberoi group of hotels, gained 5.54% at Rs 98.05, after sliding to low of Rs 83.15.

Shares of Jet Airways, Kingfisher Airlines, and SpiceJet fell by between 4.63% to 6.82% on concerns terror attack on Mumbai could hit the tourism industry for at least next two to three months.

Multiplex chain operators slipped after the state government as a precautionary measure ordered all cinema managements to suspend screening of films till further notice, post the Mumbai the terror attacks late evening on Wednesday, 26 November 2008. PVR (down 11.36% to Rs 64), Fame (down 3.26% to Rs 14.85), and Adlabs Films (down 2.02% to Rs 152.45), declined.

Mumbai has 75 multiplexes and 20 single-screen theatres and the state government order would thus affect about 450 shows on a daily basis. Theatre owners stand to lose business worth around Rs 2 lakh per day from ticket sales alone. They will also lose substantial revenues from food and beverage sales, which account for a major chunk of their total collections.

Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on BSE with a turnover of Rs 239.40 crore followed by Educomp Solutions (Rs 147 crore), SBI (Rs 114.70 crore), bhel (Rs 106.60 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs 103.90 crore).

Unitech led the volumes chart on BSE clocking volumes of 2.99 crore shares followed by GVK Power Infrastructure (1.16 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (99.35 lakh shares), Cals Refineries (90.50 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (40 lakh shares).

GTL Infrastructure surged 11.58% to Rs 45.30 at 15:30 IST on BSE, on reports the US-based American Tower Corporation (ATC) have earmarked an investment of about $500 million to acquire a stake in an small- and medium-sized Indian telecom tower company

Vishal Retail hit upper circuit of 5% to Rs 67.50 on recent reports it is planning a major rejig of the business to beat the slowdown. It will launch 60 new stores over the next few months, all of them would be franchises.

Educomp Solutions rose 9.82% to Rs 2,261.45 on reports the company is planning to enter the higher education space by setting up a private university in New Delhi

All the financial and commodity markets remained shut on Thursday, 27 November 2008, in the wake of the major terror strikes in Mumbai, India's financial capital late on Wednesday, 26 November 2008.

Mumbai terror attacks may dampen early sentiment


Key benchmark indices are likely to open lower today, 28 November 2008 in a knee-jerk reaction to terror attacks in Mumbai late on Wednesday, 26 November 2008 which reportedly claimed over 100 lives and injured over 300. Meanwhile, the SGX Nifty November 2008 futures were down 10 points. High volatility cannot be ruled out.

Sentiments remained fragile with stock exchanges remaining shut on Thursday, 27 November 2008. The Securities and exchange board of India (Sebi) Chairman CB Bhave, earlier today reportedly said that the stock exchanges have been asked to be ready to start trading. However, the final call on resuming trade will be taken later, the report added.

The GDP data for the July-September 2008 quarter due today, 28 November 2008 will be keenly watched.

The November 2008 derivative contracts which were to expire on Thursday, 27 November 2008, were also deferred till today, 28 November 2008. As per reports, the Nifty rollover of positions from November 2008 series to December 2008 series stood at 54% while marketwide rollover was 60%, by end of trading on Wednesday, 26 November 2008. The Nifty November 2008 futures ended 2757.85 on Wednesday, 26 November 2008, a premium of 5.60 points to spot closing of 2752.25.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) rose 8.84% in the 12 months to 15 November 2008, a tad below the previous week's annual rise of 8.9%, data released by the government on Thursday, 27 November 2008, showed. Inflation has been softening ever since it struck a 16-year peak of 12.91% on 2 August 2008.

Asian markets were trading mixed today, 28 November 2008. China's Shanghai Composite was down 1.18% or 22.72 points at 1,895.14, Singapore's Straits Times declined 1.18% or 20.25 points at 1,690.27, Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted was down 0.03% or 1.14 points at 4,452.61. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.17% or 158.66 points at 13,710.72, Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.57% or 47.70 points at 8,421.09, South Korea's Seoul Composite added 0.80% or 8.54 points at 1,072.

Stock markets in US remained shut on Thursday, 27 November 2008 for Thanksgiving day.

The BSE Sensex gained 331.19 points or 3.81% to 9,026.72, and the NSE Nifty rose 98.25 points or 3.7% to 2752.25 on Wednesday, 26 November 2008, boosted by short covering of open positions and China's rate cut.

Pre Session Commentary - Nov 28 2008


Today markets are likely to open with a negative gap amidst concerns over the terrorist attack in the financial capital, Mumbai. The operation to flush out the terrorist is not yet over and hence the sentiments of trading would be very low. One could anticipate a thin trade today due to weak sentiments. Overall the roll over contracts today would decide the further sentiments of trading. After a negative opening in the morning we also anticipate a bounce back later. The inflation numbers look soft at 8.84% lower by 6bps from 8.90% in the week earlier.

On Wednesday, domestic markets managed to end with green numbers despite volatile trading session. The investors were optimistic on a rate cut from RBI as China''s central bank cut banks'' benchmark lending and deposit rates by 108bps, the fourth cut since mid-September. The one-year bank loans will fall to 5.58% from 6.66%, while the benchmark one-year deposit rate falls to 2.52% from 3.60%. Sensex ended with a gain of 3.81% whereas, Nifty closed with a gain of 3.70% respectively. Bankex, Oil & Gas and Metal gained by 5.96%, 4.41% and 3.66% respectively. During the trading session we expect the market to be trading volatile.

The BSE Sensex closed high by 331.19 points at 9,026.72 and NSE Nifty ended up by 98.25 points at 2752.25. The BSE Mid Caps ended with a marginal gain of 4.79 points however Small Caps closed with losses of 18.53 points at 2,877.38 and 3,314.89. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,061.72 and intraday low of 8,658.53.

On Thursday, the US markets closed with phenomenal gains. The October personal spending dropped 1.0% month-over-month, which met estimates. Despite the dour housing data, homebuilders rose 13.6%. The Fed’s $600 billion plan to support housing lending spurred a drop in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 5.81% from 5.98%, according to BankRate.com, which gave a lift to housing related stocks. The number of new unemployment claims dropped 14,000 to 529,000 for the week ended Nov. 22. Although this was slightly better than the expected reading of 535,000, it still represents a very weak labor market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed higher by 247.14 points at 8,726.61 NASDAQ index gained 67.37 points at 1,532.10 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed higher by 30.29 points to close at 887.68 points.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Infosys gained by 5.06% and Wipro ended high by 4.18% followed by Satyam that ended high by 2.35% and Patni Computers closing high by 6.13%. In banking sector ICICI Bank was low by (3.15%), while HDFC Bank gained 0.41%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication inclined by 6.88%, while MTNL inclined by 2.68%.

Today the major stock markets in Asia opened mixed. The Shanghai Composite is trading low by 23.79 at 1,894.06 Hang Seng is high by 296.40 points at 13,848.48. Further Japan''s Nikkei is high by 42.01 points at 8,415.40. Straits Times is also trading low by 15.53 points at 1,694.99 and South Korea’s Seoul Composite is high by 10.85 points at 1,074.33.

The FIIs on Wednesday stood as net buyers in equity and debt. The Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1384.20 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 179.70 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,382.90 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 37.80 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs 1.30 Crore and Rs 142.00 Crore respectively.

On Wednesday, the partially convertible rupee ended at 49.48/50 per dollar, stronger by 0.9% on Tuesday’s closing at 49.93/95. The rupee gained strength on the back of huge dollar selling by corporate and phenomenal rally in the stock markets.

On BSE, total number of shares traded was Rs 25.57 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 3,232.63 Crore. On NSE, total volume of shares traded was 51.77 Crore and total turnover was Rs 8,818.65 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Suzlon Energy with 49337802 shares, Unitech with total volume traded 45143845 shares, followed by SAIL with 11960100 shares, ICICI Bank with 11620249 shares and Reliance Comm with 11014088 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 1378947 with a total turnover of Rs 17,568.68 crores. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 1370221 with a total turnover of Rs 13,562.58 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1238249 with a total turnover of Rs 17237.53 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 44919 and notional turnover was Rs 520.17 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,590 and resistance at 2,700 and BSE Sensex has support at 8,560 and resistance at 8,935.

Daily Market Outlook - Nov 28 2008


Daily Market Outlook - Nov 28 2008

Morning Note - Nov 28 2008


Morning Note - Nov 28 2008

SGX Nifty Live Update - Nov 28 2008


SGX Nifty currently trading +30.0 at 2,715.0 points

Please note that SGX Nifty was down yesterday (Figures not available)

Panic opening…recovery later


Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.

Indian equities surged in late trades on Wednesday, enabling the key indices to close at day's high on hope that the RBI could soon announce a cut in interest rates. China on Wednesday cut it's lending and deposit rates, while also lowering the banks' reserve requirement. This was the fourth time that China slashed rates in the past 2-3 months to boost economic growth.

We expect the market's initial reaction to be down in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. But, with US markets rising smartly on Wednesday and a follow up advance in other global markets, the sentiment may improve later in the day. However, Asian markets are trading mixed today. US markets were shut on Thursday due to Thanksgiving and will open only for half a day today.

Also, the government is scheduled to announce Q2 GDP numbers. Though, the figure is expected to moderate from Q1 growth of 7.9%, a better than expected reading could lift the mood on the street. On the flipside, a disappointing number could only add to the already mounting concerns over the economic slowdown.

We'll also have F&O expiry for the November series, which will add to the volatility. So, we advise investors to stay on the sidelines and not take undue risks till the dust settles on the terrorist strikes. However, history has shown that the markets do rebound after an initial knee-jerk reaction down post any such negative events.

Also, inflation has come down for the third successive week to 8.84% and is likely to fall further over the next few weeks. There have been expectations of further easing in monetary policy for some time after inflation fell into single digits. This may come true following the Mumbai terrorist attacks, as the government tries to shore up the market sentiment.

Hotel Helpline Numbers


Helplines:

Taj- 022-66574322, 022-66574372, 1800 111 825;

Trident- 011-23890606;

MEA control room - 91-11-23015300, 91-11-23012113 and 91-11-23013537.

MEA fax number: 91-11-23018158

FCCB - Redemption


FCCB - Redemption

China - crisis deepening


The impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy is deepening and a large interest rate cut announced Wednesday is essential to boosting slowing growth, the country's top planner said.

This crisis is spreading all over the world and its impact on China's economy is deepening," Zhang Ping, chairman of the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission, said at a news conference Thursday. Zhang said economic indicators for November were showing an "even faster decline," though he gave no details.

A 1.08 percentage point reduction in the country's key one-year lending rate announced late Wednesday — China's biggest rate cut since 1997 and the fourth in three months — is "one of the essential measures to stimulate our economic growth," Zhang said.

Zhang said a 4 trillion yuan (USD 586 billion), two-year government stimulus package announced Nov. 9 should add about 1 percentage point to China's economic growth rate. That was below the 2 percentage point increase that independent analysts have forecast.

China's economic growth is expected to fall to about 9 percent this year, down from last year's rapid 11.9 percent rate. That would be the fastest of any major economy, but Chinese leaders worry about rising job losses, especially in export industries, and possible unrest.

Zhang said the government would take steps to boost growth and ensure the economy continues to create jobs. But he did not respond to a question about whether Beijing is planning to enact additional stimulus plans.

A state newspaper reported last weekend that Zhang's agency is working on an additional stimulus package that is meant to supplement the Nov. 9 package with more spending on health, education and other social programs.

The main stimulus package calls for insulating China's economy from the global downturn by injecting money into the economy through higher spending on construction of airports, highways and other projects. It is meant to spur domestic consumption.

The cut in the one-year lending rate to 5.58 percent, effective Thursday, is aimed at encouraging consumers and businesses to borrow and spend, which is seen as a more effective way to fuel growth than government spending.

The stimulus package includes 1.8 trillion yuan (USD 263 billion) in spending on airports, highways and other, 370 billion yuan (USD 54 billion) to improve infrastructure in the poor countryside and 350 billion (USD 51 billion) for environmental projects, according to Zhang.

It also includes 280 billion yuan (USD 41 billion) for construction of low-income housing and 40 billion yuan (USD 5.8 billion) for health and education programs, Zhang said.

Zhang said the government is still working on how local governments will pay for their share of the stimulus spending. The central government is to supply 1.2 trillion yuan (USD 175 billion) of the total stimulus spending, with the rest coming from lower-level governments and state companies.

Inflation at 8.84%


The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rose 8.84 per cent for the week ended November 15, marginally down from the previous week’s yearly rise of 8.90 per cent. The latest WPI inflation rate was the lowest reading since May 17 and well below early August’s peak of 12.91 per cent.

The official WPI for ‘All Commodities’ for the latest reported week rose by 0.04 per cent to 235.1 points, up from 235 points for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at 3.35 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.
Fish-Marine cheaper

The Primary Articles Group rose 0.1 per cent as the index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 0.1 per cent due to higher prices of moong, rice and bajra (3 per cent each), ragi (2 per cent) and masur, maize and fruits and vegetables (1 per cent each). However, the prices of fish-marine (12 per cent) and gram and tea (2 per cent each) declined.
Soyabean dearer

The index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group rose marginally due to higher prices of soyabean (11 per cent), gingelly seed and castor seed (2 per cent each) and linseed (1 per cent). However, the prices of raw rubber (4 per cent), cotton seed groundnut seed and raw cotton (2 per cent each) and raw silk (1 per cent) declined.

The fuel, power, light and lubricants group index remained unchanged at its previous week’s level of 353.3 points. The Manufactured Products group rose by 0.05 per cent as the index for the ‘Food Products’ group declined by 0.1 per cent due to lower prices of cotton seed oil (5 per cent), imported edible oil (4 per cent), rice bran oil (3 per cent) and gur (2 per cent).

However, the prices of bran (all kinds) (5 per cent), gingelly oil (4 per cent), sooji (rawa) (2 per cent) and salt and atta (1 per cent each) moved up. The index for the ‘Textiles’ group rose by 1.0 per cent due to higher prices of cotton yarn-cones and hessian and sacking bags (4 per cent each), texturised yarn (2 per cent) and hessian cloth and cotton yarn-hanks (1 per cent each). However, the prices of synthetic yarn (2 per cent) declined.

The index for ‘Rubber and Plastic Products’ group declined by 0.2 per cent due to lower prices of PVC fitting and accessories (12 per cent). The index for ‘Chemicals and Chemical Products’ group rose by 0.3 per cent due to higher prices of acetylene (70 per cent) and oxygen (8 per cent). However, the prices of vitamin liquids (4 per cent) declined.

The index for the ‘Base Metals Alloys and Metal Products’ group declined by 0.6 per cent due to lower prices of ferro silicon (24 per cent), steel ingots (plain carbon) (16 per cent), basic pig iron and foundry pig iron (7 per cent each), zinc (3 per cent), steel sheets, plates and strips (2 per cent) and ms bars and rounds (1 per cent). However, the prices of joist and rolls and other iron steel (3 per cent each) moved up.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

NSE, BSE closed today


NSE and BSE will be closed today on account of the Mumbai terror attacks

Donate Blood for Victims


Donate blood for those who have been victims of the Mumbai Blasts.

These are the hospital phone numbers.

JJ hospital (022) 23739031

St George hospital (022) 22620242

Terror attacks in Mumbai, 80 killed


In one of the most violent terror attacks on Indian soil, Mumbai came under an unprecedented night attack as terrorists used heavy machine guns, including AK-47s, and grenades to strike at the city's most high-profile targets -- the hyper-busy CST (formerly VT) rail terminus; the landmark Taj Hotel at the Gateway and the luxury Oberoi Trident at Nariman Point; the domestic airport at Santa Cruz; the Cama and GT hospitals near CST; the Metro Adlabs multiplex and Mazgaon Dockyard -- killing at least 80 and sending more than 900 to hospital, according to latest reports. ( Watch )

The attacks have taken a tragic toll on the city's top police brass: The high-profile chief of the anti-terror squad Hemant Karkare was killed; Mumbai's additional commissioner of police (east) Ashok Kamte was gunned down outside the Metro; and celebrated encounter specialist Vijay Salaskar was also killed

The attacks appeared to be aimed at getting international attention as the terrorists took upto 40 British nationals and other foreigners hostage. The chairman of Hindustan Unilever Harish Manwani and CEO of the company Nitin Paranjpe were among the guests trapped at the Oberoi. All the internal board members of the multinational giant were reported to be holed up in the Oberoi hotel.

Two terrorists were reported holed up inside the Oberoi Hotel. Fresh firing has been reported at Oberoi and Army has entered the hotel to flush out the terrorists.

An unknown outfit, Deccan Mujahideen, has sent an email to news organizations claiming that it carried out the Mumbai attacks.

The Army and Navy in Mumbai were put on alert. 65 Army commandos and 200 NSG commandos were being rushed to Mumbai, Home Minister Shivraj Patil said.

The Navy commandos too have been asked to assist the police. Special secretary M L Kumawat is in constant touch with the state police.

Some media reports attributed the attack to Lashkar-e-Taiba. There were also unconfirmed reports that some of the terrorists came in by sea. A boat laden with explosives was recovered later at night off the Gateway of India.

via Times of India

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Post Market Watch - Nov 26 2008


Equities gained momentum at the fag end of the trading hour led by banking, oil & gas and metal stocks. Frontliners-RIL, Sterlite Industries and ICICI Bank also supported the market sentiment.

BSE Midcap rose 0.17%, while Smallcap index declined 0.56%.

Subsequent to oil ministry`s decision on rate cuts in oil prices as of now, shares of oil & gas companies surged. BSE Oil & Gas Index was up over 4%.

Besides, news about China cutting CRR by 108 basis points and interest rate to 5.58% from 6.66%, fuelled the market sentiments.

All sectors traded in positive. BSE Bankex gained the most. The counter surged over 5%, followed by Oil & gas which rose 4.41% and Metal moved up 3.66%.

Indian stock market started the day on a positive zone after a fall of 2.33% on the previous working day. The 30-share index, BSE Sensex opened with a gain of 72.67 points, at 8,768.20 on Wednesday.

The Sensex ended the day with a gain of 331.19 points, or 3.81% at 9,026.72 after touching a high of 9,061.72 and a low of 8,658.53. The broad-based NSE Nifty gained 98.25 points, or 3.70% at 2,752.25 after hitting a high of 2,762.60 and a low of 2,643.35.

Biggest gainers in the 30-share index were Sterlite Industries (India) (12.88%), ICICI Bank (9.55%), HDFC Bank (8.63%), NTPC (6.93%), Reliance Industries (6.11%), and DLF (5.53%).

On the other hand, Mahindra & Mahindra (2.55%), and Maruti Suzuki India (0.50%) were the major losers in the Sensex.

Overall market breadth was negative. Out of the total 2,228 stocks traded at BSE, 938 advanced, 1,222 declined while 68 remained unchanged.

India bullish on FDI


Undeterred by global credit freeze, India maintains a bullish outlook on attracting Foreign Direct Investment which may be governed by easier rules, a top government official said on Wednesday.

"FDI inflows were robust till September and...my sense is that the October figures will be robust as companies like the General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota are going to execute their ongoing projects," Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Secretary Ajay Shankar said here.

He said the issue of "liberalisation and rationalisation" of FDI policy was under inter-ministerial consultation. "A decision is expected soon", he said at a FICCI function here.

An empowered Group of Ministers, headed by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, is likely to meet soon to discuss a proposal to exclude foreign institutional investors' stake from the overall FDI ceiling.

Despite slowdown in the global economy, India received 17.21 billion dollar between April-September this financial year, showing an impressive increase of 137 per cent from 7.25 billion dollar in the first half of the previous fiscal.

While the DIPP is understood to have mooted the proposal for excluding the foreign institutional investors' stake in companies from the overall FDI ceiling, the plan is believed to have been opposed by the Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Corporate Affairs. The issue will be resolved by eGoM.

Between April-August, data for which has been officially released, manufacturing has attracted an FDI of five billion dollar, showing an increase of 41 per cent over inflows in the year-ago period.

Asked whether the government is mulling import restrictions to protect the domestic industry, Shankar said both fiscal and monetary measures would be used to stimulate demand and maintain growth.

Nicholas Piramal


Nicholas Piramal

Futures Options - Nov 26 2008


Futures Options - Nov 26 2008

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 26 2008


Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
26/11/2008 533029 ALKALI OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 69754 196.75
26/11/2008 533029 ALKALI MANSUKH STOCK BROKERS LTD B 72717 194.13
26/11/2008 533029 ALKALI OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 69754 196.60
26/11/2008 533029 ALKALI MANSUKH STOCK BROKERS LTD S 72717 194.73
26/11/2008 520077 AMTEK AUTO L MERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA SA SV B 4330757 46.10
26/11/2008 520077 AMTEK AUTO L GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 1071588 46.10
26/11/2008 520077 AMTEK AUTO L CREDIT SUISSE SINGAPORE LIMITED S 1596656 46.10
26/11/2008 520077 AMTEK AUTO L MORGAN STANLEY MAURITIUS COMPANY LIMITED S 1662513 46.10
26/11/2008 512093 CRANES SOFT COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LIMITED B 2327430 85.00
26/11/2008 512093 CRANES SOFT MORGAN STANLEY MAURITIUS COMPANY LIMITED S 914448 85.00
26/11/2008 512093 CRANES SOFT MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED S 1412982 85.00
26/11/2008 530945 GANGOTRI I&S GBK RESOURCES PVT LTD S 48200 8.06
26/11/2008 531524 I.C.S.A. IND RAIFFEISEN EURASIEN AKTIEN FONDS B 1963500 178.01
26/11/2008 531524 I.C.S.A. IND CLSA MAURITIUS LIMITED S 1963500 178.01
26/11/2008 530955 KAILASH FICO PARACHIT SALES MKT SERVICES B 100000 22.63
26/11/2008 530955 KAILASH FICO S L TRADES AND FINANCE I PVT S 60000 22.60
26/11/2008 512047 NATRAJ FIN MAXILLA FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT B 30000 30.25
26/11/2008 512047 NATRAJ FIN NILESH RASIKLAL PANDYA S 34000 30.25
26/11/2008 590057 NORTHGATE TE CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTD B 1378837 54.76
26/11/2008 590057 NORTHGATE TE MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED S 1235499 54.50
26/11/2008 531746 PRAJAY ENG S CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTD B 1193060 18.25
26/11/2008 531746 PRAJAY ENG S ABN AMRO BANK N.V. LONDON S 1193060 18.25
26/11/2008 531500 RAJESH EXPOT DHIRAJLAL JERAMBHAI DHAKAN B 5525000 20.52
26/11/2008 531500 RAJESH EXPOT BENNETT COLEMAN AND CO LTD S 5844000 20.51
26/11/2008 500368 RUCHI SOYA DHANAJJAYA MONEY MANAGEMENT SER P LTD B 975497 22.49
26/11/2008 500368 RUCHI SOYA DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED S 1050000 22.48
26/11/2008 530943 SHRI ADHIKAR UPTURN SECURITIES PVT LTD B 50000 9.06
26/11/2008 532691 TULIP TELE MERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA S.A. S.V. B 158914 427.00
26/11/2008 532691 TULIP TELE ABN AMRO BANK N.V. LONDON S 158914 427.00

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - Nov 26 2008


Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
26-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,JOHNSON AFRAHIMBHAI TAILOR,BUY,40000,199.39,-
26-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD,BUY,51230,194.64,-
26-NOV-2008,LAXMIMACH,Lakshmi Mach Works,TRUPTI PETROLEUMS PVT. LTD.,BUY,69400,548.28,-
26-NOV-2008,NORTHGATE,Northgate Technologies Li,CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,201648,53.50,-
26-NOV-2008,RUCHISOYA,Ruchi Soya Inds Ltd.,DHANANJAYA MONEY MANAGEMENT SERVICES PVT LTD,BUY,1804185,22.55,-
26-NOV-2008,RUCHISOYA,Ruchi Soya Inds Ltd.,SHIVA FOUNDATION,BUY,2750000,22.95,-
26-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,JOHNSON AFRAHIMBHAI TAILOR,SELL,50975,196.08,-
26-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD,SELL,51230,194.12,-
26-NOV-2008,KTKBANK,Karnataka Bank Limited,CITIGROUP GLOBAL MKTS (MAURITIUS) PVT LTD,SELL,902687,75.00,-
26-NOV-2008,NORTHGATE,Northgate Technologies Li,CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPO,SELL,201648,53.50,-
26-NOV-2008,PIONEEREMB,Pioneer Embroideries Limi,ANAND YOGESH SHARES AND CONSULTANCY PVT LTD,SELL,109572,9.10,-
26-NOV-2008,RUCHISOYA,Ruchi Soya Inds Ltd.,DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED,SELL,1529757,22.55,-
26-NOV-2008,RUCHISOYA,Ruchi Soya Inds Ltd.,DHANANJAYA MONEY MANAGEMENT SERVICES PVT LTD,SELL,1604185,23.00,-

Eveninger - Nov 26 2008


Eveninger - Nov 26 2008

Post Session Commentary - Nov 26 2008


The domestic market ended with handsome gains on account of buying activity in index heavyweights, after reporting a fall on previous session. Market opened on firm note along with other Asian markets backed by latest US Federal Reserve measures to boost the flagging US financial system. Further benchmark indices were not able to hold the momentum and pared its gains to trade with instability. Volatility rose ahead of the derivatives expiry for November 2008 series on 27 November 2008. Finally market turned upward as renewed buying interest during final trading hours led rally in the bourses. Stocks surged on the hopes of rate cuts by other central banks after a surprise steep rate cut announced by China''s central bank. China''s central bank cut banks'' benchmark lending and deposit rates by 1.08% for the fourth time since mid-September 2008. NSE Nifty ended above 2,700 mark and BSE Sensex around 9,000 level. From the sectoral front, all indices ended in green and Bank stocks outperformed the benchmark indices as ended with gain of around 6%. Apart from that, most of the buying was seen in Oil & Gas, Metal, Teck, Pharma, Reality, Power and IT stocks. Midcap stocks also joined the rally while Small cap stocks remained out of favour.

Among the Sensex pack 28 stocks ended in green territory and 2 in red. The market breadth was negative as 1222 stocks closed in red while 938 stocks closed in green and 68 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 331.19 points at 9,026.72 and NSE Nifty ended up by 98.25 points at 2,752.25. The BSE Mid Caps ended with gain of 4.79 points at 2,877.38 while and BSE Small Caps closed with loss 18.53 points at 3,314.89. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,061.72 and intraday low of 8,658.53.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Sterlite Industries (12.88%), ICICI Bank (9.55%), HDFC Bank (8.63%), NTPC Ltd (6.93%), Reliance (6.11%), DLF Ltd (5.53%), Wipro Ltd (5.33%), HDFC (4.92%), Ranbaxy Lab (4.72%), TCS Ltd (4.72%), Bharti Airtel (4.51%) and Reliance Infra (4.41%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are M&M Ltd (2.55%) and Maruti Suzuki (0.50%).

China''s central bank cut its lending and deposit rate by 108 bps to 5.58% from 6.66%. The rate cut will come into effect on 27th November 2008. This move is highlighting the deteriorating conditions for the Chinese economy as it the largest move for the central bank since 1997 and the fourth time in ten weeks. Along with this, the deposit rate will drop to 2.52% from 3.60%.

The BSE Bank index gained (5.96%) or 260.23 points to close at 4,625.23. Major gainers are ICICI Bank (9.55%), HDFC Bank (8.63%), Axis Bank (6.05%), Oriental Bank (5.20%), Bank of Baroda (4.68%) and Kotak Bank (4.19%).

The BSE Oil & Gas index advanced by (4.41%) or 238.69 points to close at 5,648.06 Gainers are Reliance (6.11%), BPCL (5.01%), Essar Oil Ltd (4.53%), Reliance Petroleum (3.60%), Cairn Ind (3.26%) and Gail India (2.64%).

The BSE Metal index went up by (3.66%) or 156.28 points to close at 4,420.45. Gainers are Sterlite Industries (12.88%), SAIL (8.37%), Nalco (6.42%), Hindustan Zinc (3.50%), Tata Steel (2.72%) and Jindal Steel (2.52%).

The BSE Teck index ended higher by (2.17%) or 41.45 points at 1,953.83 as Tanla (11.01%), Deccan Chr (9.03%), HT Media (8.63%), Patni Computer (6.06%), Idea Cell (5.55%) and Wipro Ltd (5.33%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Pharma index gained (2.16%) or 60.83 points to close at 2,879.09. Gainers are Sterlite Biotec (8.34%), Divis Lab (5.01%), Ranbaxy Lab (4.72%), Lupin Ltd (4.17%) and Cipla Ltd (3.49%).

The BSE Reality index ended higher by (2.12%) or 32.78 points at 1,576.27. Major gainers are Pheonix Mill (7.22%), Indiabull Real (6.61%), DLF Ltd (5.53%), Akruti City (3.37%) and Sobha Dev (0.86%).

Sensex and nifty jump


Lack of clarity and weak Asian indices saw the Sensex gyrate over 72 points in early trades. After a positive opening, the Sensex eased on profit taking and touched the day's low of 8,659. The market thereafter moved within a range with a mixed bias before buying in select heavy weights and up-move in banking and oil stocks lifted the index to an intra-day high of 9,062. The Sensex ended the session with gains at 9,027, up 331 points and Nifty added 98 points to close at 2,752.

However, the market breadth was negative. Of the 2,227 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,222 stocks declined, while 937 stocks declined. Sixty-eight stocks ended unchanged. All the 13 sectoral indices ended in the green. The BSE Bankex led the pack of gaining sectoral indices rising by 5.96% and the BSE Oil gained 4.41% for the day. Other indices also ended with decent gains.

Buying was witnessed in select blue chip stocks. Sterlite Industries advanced 12.88% at Rs231, ICICI Bank jumped 9.55% at Rs350.50, HDFC Bank added 8.63% at Rs907.20, National Thermal Power Corporation gained 6.93% at Rs164.30, Reliance Industries climbed 6.11% at Rs1,137.20 and DLF moved up by 5.53% at Rs198.60. However, Mahindra & Mahindra dropped 2.55% at Rs269.60 and Maruti Suzuki India was down 0.50% at Rs532.30.

Banking stocks stole the show today. Oriental Bank vaulted 6.24% at Rs143, Axis Bank flared up 6.05% at Rs405.05, Bank of Baroda jumped 4.68% at Rs253.65 and Kotak Bank advanced 4.19% at Rs324.25. Bank of India, State Bank of India, Union Bank, Allahabad Bank and Punjab National Bank were up over 2-3% each.

Over 2.29 crore shares of Unitech changed hands on the BSE followed by Suzlon Energy (1.90 crore shares), GVK Power & Infrastructure (1.26 crore shares), Rajesh Export (0.65 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (0.61 crore shares).

Heavyweights stage a late comeback; breadth weak


Hopes that other central banks will follow suit after a surprise steep rate cut announced by China's central bank propelled the market sharply higher in late trade. The BSE Sensex raced past the psychological 9,000 mark. However, volatility was high.

Despite the rally in the key benchmark indices, the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market remained negative as small and mid-cap stocks dropped on concerns about the weakening domestic and US economy.

China's central bank today, 26 November 2008, cut banks' benchmark lending and deposit rates by 1.08% for the fourth time since mid-September 2008. The cut in the lending rate was the biggest since October 1997. The steep rate cut by China raised expectations of a coordinated action by other central banks by way of rate cuts to counter the downside risks to the global economy.

Expectations of further cut in interest rates in India gathered momentum after Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram Monday, 24 November 2008, said monetary policy was biased towards stimulating growth and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was likely to lower rates further as inflation cooled. Lower interest rates boost stocks as lower borrowing costs help lift corporate profits.

With corporate India forced to compete with the government domestically for raising finance, interest rates cannot drop meaningfully till either growth slows and demand for credit cools or the RBI continues to provide liquidity to banks, aggressively cutting interest rates, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) – the percentage of deposits banks have to keep with the central bank and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) – the percentage of deposits bank have to hold in government and other approved securities.

The slowdown in the Indian economy and reduced availability and rising cost of funds are taking their toll on the performance of the corporate sector. Moreover, companies which have resorted to substantial overseas borrowing are seeing increase in cost of servicing the loan due to depreciation rupee which hit a record low of 50.60 against the dollar on 20 November 2008. Some companies have cut production to avoid higher inventories.

The Indian stock market witnessed high volatility today caught between concerns about the weakening domestic, US economy and volatile European shares and firmer Asian stocks on the back of the latest US Federal Reserve measures to boost the flagging US financial system. In a volatile trade, the Sensex swung 403.19 points between the day's high and low during the day.

After a rebound from lower level triggered by news of rate cut by China, European shares weakened again. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 1.41% and 2.14%.

The US Federal Reserve on Tuesday, 25 November 2008, outlined an $800 billion lending facility to support the market for consumer debt securities. The US central bank will buy billions of dollars worth of debt and mortgage-backed securities to increase the flow of credit for mortgages, student loans, car loans and credit cards.

However, the data released Tuesday showed the US economy shrank more severely during the third quarter ended September 2008 than first estimated as consumers cut spending at the steepest rate in 28 years. The Commerce Department said third-quarter gross domestic product shrank 0.5% on a sharp drop in consumer spending. That was a downward revision from the US government's first estimate that GDP had contracted 0.3% in the third quarter.

Metal shares led rally in Asian stocks as the crumbled BHP and Rio deal is seen opening opportunities in other firms. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan were down up by between 0.12% and 4.72%. Miner BHP Billiton on Tuesday called off its bid to acquire rival Rio Tinto.

However, Japan bucked the strong trend in Asia after Fitch Ratings on downgraded Toyota's long-term foreign and local debt ratings to AA from AAA, with a negative outlook, saying the company needed to review its global investments, product mix and speed of expansion to address the challenges it faces. The Nikkei slipped 1.33%

The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 331.19 points or 3.81% to 9,026.72. The Sensex opened 110.49 points higher at 8,806.02. At the day's high of 9,061.72, the Sensex gained 366.19 points in late trade. The Sensex fell 37 points at the day's low of 8,658.53 in mid-morning trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty gained 98.25 points or 3.70% to 2752.25. Nifty November 2008 futures were at 2758.55, at a premium of 6.30 points as compared to the spot closing.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 416.82 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 362.05 crore on today, 26 November 2008, according to provisional data on NSE.

The barometer index BSE Sensex is down 11260.27 points or 55.50% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 12180.05 points or 57.43% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

Volatility may rise tomorrow 27 November 2008 ahead of the derivatives expiry for November 2008 series. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from November 2008 to December 2008 series stood at 39% while marketwide rollover of positions was 45%, as on Tuesday, 25 November 2008.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative on BSE with 1390 shares declining as compared with 1065 that rose. 84 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.17% to 2,877.38 while the BSE Small-Cap index fell 0.56% to 3,314.89. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on the BSE amounted to Rs 3223 crore as compared to Rs 3196 crore on Tuesday, 25 November 2008. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment surged to Rs 48,888.96 crore from Rs 44,612.44 crore on Tuesday, 25 November 2008.

All the sectoral indices on BSE logged gains. However only the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 5.96% to 4,625.23), and the Bankex (up 4.41% to 5,648.06), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE FMCG index (up 1.05% to 1,920.85), the BSE Auto index (up 0.69% to 2,297.75), the BSE Realty index (up 2.12% to 1,576.27), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 0.29% to 6,405.26 ), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.38% to 1,800.50), the BSE HealthCare index (up 2.16% to 2,879.09), the BSE IT index (up 1.48% to 2,468.45), the BSE PSU index (up 1.47% to 4,621.34), the BSE Power index (up 1.91% to 1,632.30), the BSE Teck index (up 2.17% to 1,953.83), the BSE Metal index (up 3.66% to 4,420.45) underperformed the Sensex.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 28 advanced while only 2 of them slipped. NTPC (up 7.58% to Rs 165.30), Reliance Infrastructure (up 4.91% to Rs 522), and Jaiprakash Associates (up 3.18% to Rs 56.75), edged higher from the Sensex pack.

India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries jumped 12.14% to Rs 229.50 on 16.71 lakh shares on recent reports the company is still eyeing Asarco, which operates three copper mines in Arizona, but an agreement could only be reached at a substantially reduced price. Sterlite originally offered $2.6 billion to buy Asarco but withdrew from the deal in October 2008 because of falling metals prices. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

Other metal shares Hindalco Industries (up 1.95% to Rs 52.35), Sesa Goa (up 2.62% to Rs 70.50), and Tata Steel (up 1.56% to Rs 153.15), rose.

Banking shares advanced on reports banks operating in India including foreign ones may soon be able to open new branches and set up automated teller machines (ATM) without a licence from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). ICICI Bank (up 9.06% to Rs 348.95), HDFC Bank (up 8.85% to Rs 909), and State Bank of India (up 1.80% to Rs 1091.40), gained.

Rate cut hopes also aided rally in bank shares. The RBI has cut rates over the past two months to shield the domestic economic from global economic recession. The repo rate has been cut by 150 basis points to 7.5% since October this year and the CRR has been reduced by 350 basis points to 5.5%. In response, government owned banks lowered prime lending rates by up 75 basis points, but large private lenders like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank are yet to do so.

India's top mortgage lender by net profit Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) gained 5.57% to Rs 1424 after Citigroup reportedly said it is not looking to liquidate its 11.74% stake in HDFC.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) advanced 5.89% to Rs 1134.80 on high volumes of 32.21 lakh shares. Reports the company wants to restart selling petrol and diesel after margins on the two fuels turned positive, boosted the stock to day's high of Rs 1098.90. The Mukesh Ambani-run company had reportedly shut all of its 1,432 petrol pumps around March 2008 after it could not compete with public sector companies, who sold fuel at rates much lower than their cost, as they got government subsidies.

India's largest oil exploration firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) was up 2.11% to Rs 700 after Russia on Tuesday, 25 November 2008, said it would not set any precondition such as a stake for its state-run firms in return for approval for ONGC's acquisition of Imperial Energy.

India's largest realty firm by market capitalisation DLF jumped 5.74% to Rs 199 on reports global gaming and theme park leader Sega Corporation, a subsidiary of the Tokyo Exchange-listed Sega Sammy, is in talks with the company for a possible India entry.

IT pivotals gained shrugged off a firmer rupee. Infosys Technologies (up 0.69% to Rs 1188.95), Satyam Computer Services (up 1.09% to Rs 236.40), Wipro (up 5.11% to Rs 240.50), and TCS (up 4.22% to Rs 524.50), gained despite the rupee rising to 49.51/54 a dollar from its previous close of 49.95/96 in sync with a rally in equity markets.

A stronger rupee impacts operating margins of IT firms as they earn most of their revenues from exports with US as the major market.

Telecom shares rose on reports India would press ahead with an auction of airwaves to offer so-called third generation or 3G mobile phone services despite the global financial crisis. India's largest cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel rose 4.59% to Rs 655.20. However India's second largest cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communications gained 1.30% to Rs 198.10 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack.

Without stating how many licences would be issued, reports said the auction process is expected to start in a few days and be completed in mid-January 2009.

Capital goods shares reversed early losses on hopes that lower interest rates would keep order flows strong and aid project funding. The country's largest power equipment maker by sales, Bharat Heavy Electricals, rose 1.63% to Rs 1303.90,off day's low of Rs 1246.55. India's top engineering and construction firm by sales, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), rose 1.35% to Rs 746.10, rebounding from low of Rs 721.

But Siemens tumbled 16.46% to Rs 224 on high volumes of 21.74 lakh shares as net profit fell 27.03% to Rs 225.19 crore in Q4 September 2008 over Q4 September 2007. The company announced the results after trading hours on Tuesday, 25 November 2008.

India's top pharma company by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories by sales rebounded sharply from early low of Rs 195.50 to settle 4.89% higher at Rs 213.55. Recent reports the company's subsidiary Ranbaxy Fine Chemical's (RFCL) plans to acquire the US-based speciality chemicals maker Mallinckrodt Baker is facing delays because of valuation problems, caused early slide.

Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries rose 3.12% to Rs 1109 on acquiring a US pharmaceuticals and performance chemicals firm. The company announced the acquisition before trading hours today, 26 November 2008.

India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra and Mahindra slumped 4.57% to Rs 264 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack. Reportedly Mahindra Renault, a venture of Mahindra and Mahindra and French auto company Renault SA, has scaled back production of Logan sedan by at least half, after sales sharply fell in the past months.

India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors rose 2.36% to Rs 139 after its American depository receipt jumped 11.37% on Tuesday, 25 November 2008.

Bajaj Auto rebounded from its 52-week low of Rs 307.15 to settle 2.65% higher at Rs 326.15. The early fall came on reports the company is likely to scale down production targets, shrink vendor base, align production across manufacturing sites and aggressively target export market, to tackle the economic slowdown.

Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 356.70 crore followed by State Bank of India (Rs 193.65 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 156.70 crore), Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 135.25 crore) and Educomp Solutions (Rs 130 crore).

Unitech led the volumes chart on BSE clocking volumes of 2.30 crore shares followed by Suzlon (1.90 crore shares), GVK Power Infrastructure (1.26 crore shares), Rajesh Exports (65 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (61.60 lakh shares)

From the small and mid-cap basket, Kingfisher Airlines (up 17.78%), GSS America (up 19.88%), KSB Pumps (up 11.33%), Ruchi Soya (up 9.05%), IVRCL Infrastructure (up 13%) surged.

However, Adhunik Metaliks (down 14.29%), Unity Infraprojects (down 15.16%), Puravankara Projects (down 9.44%), and Bhushan Steel (down 8.60%), slipped.

Adlabs Films jumped 5.16% to Rs 157 on reports of planning a Rs 200-crore push for the film services and movie exhibition businesses.

Market seen opening firm


Key benchmark indices are likely to open firm tracking positive Asian markets which were boosted by the US Federal Reserve's announcement of two new efforts to unfreeze credit for homebuyers, consumers and small businesses, committing up to $800 billion. The SGX November 2008 Nifty futures were up 39.50 points.

However volatility may rise ahead of the derivatives expiry for November 2008 series on Thursday, 27 November 2008. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from November 2008 to December 2008 series stood at 39% while marketwide rollover of positions was 45%, as on Tuesday, 25 November 2008.

The central bank will purchase as much as $600 billion in debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing finance companies. It will set up a $200-billion programme to support consumer and small-business loans, the Fed said in a statement on Tuesday,24 November 2008 in Washington.

Meanwhile, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission on Tuesday, 24 November 2008 scaled down India's FY09 GDP to 7%. However, Finance Minister P Chidambaram estimates growth to be between 7% and 8% in FY09. According to him the current account deficit will go up. But, he feels India is nowhere close to a recession despite the crisis having worsened.

Most Asian markets were trading firm today, 25 November 2008. China's Shanghai Composite was up 0.32% or 5.98 points at 1,894.70, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.39% or 307.39 points at 13,185.99, Singapore's Straits Times advanced 0.75% or 12.46 points at 1,665.71, South Korea's Seoul Composite surged 3.52% or 34.66 points at 1,017.98, Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted added 1.09% or 46.69 points at 4,313.18. However, Japan's Nikkei slipped 1.30% or 108.27 points at 8,215.66

US markets ended mixed on Monday, 24 November 2008 even as the treasury commits up to $800 billion in two new programs to unfreeze credit markets & buy mortgage-related debt. On the economic data front, the US economy contracted by 0.50% in the third quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 36.08 points, or 0.43%, to 8,479.47. The S&P 500 gained 5.58 points, or 0.66%, to 857.39. The Nasdaq Composite index slipped 7.29 points, or 0.50%, to 1,464.73.

Back home, in a complete reversal of trend, the market lost ground on Tuesday, 24 November 2008 on concerns about sharply deteriorating major global economies. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 207.59 points or 2.33%, to 8,695.53 and the S&P CNX Nifty fell 54.25 points or 2% to 2654, on that day.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 161.88 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 155.09 crore on Tuesday, 25 November 2008, according to provisional data on NSE.

Morning Note -Nov 26 2008


Morning Note -Nov 26 2008

Daily Market Watch - Nov 26 2008


Daily Market Watch - Nov 26 2008

SGX Nifty Live Update - Nov 26 2008


SGX Nifty currently trading at 2,690.0 and is up 49.0 points for November contracts

December contracts - 2,687.0 +43.5

Stocks end mixed at Wall Street


Nasdaq ends in the red despite H-P's good earning report

It was quite a choppy session at Wall Street today and stocks ultimately ended the day mixed on Tuesday, 25 November, 2008. Market started on a strong note but by mid day it failed to stick to its gains and the indices slipped into the red for a brief time. But after that, they managed to inch back in the green, though with just marginal gains. Though the government's new plan to revive the economy tried to give some boost, the energy and the technology sectors are playing the spoilsport today.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 36 points at 8,479. The tech heavy Nasdaq lost 7 points at 1,464 and the S&P 500 surged 6 points at 857.

Eight of the ten sectors ended in then green today led by the financial sector. The technology and consumer staples sectors were the main laggards.

Sixteen out of thirty Dow stocks ended in the green today. JP Morgan was the main Dow winner while being followed by other financial stocks.

In order to save the US economy from slipping further, the Federal Reserve created a program that will purchase direct obligations of housing-related government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed is taking this action to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit to purchase houses. The Fed will purchase up to $100 billion in direct GSE obligations and up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

In addition, the Fed created a Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility so market participants can meet the credit needs of households and small businesses by supporting asset-backed securities collateralized by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration. The New York Fed will extend $200 billion in loans for the consumer credit facility, while the Treasury will extend $20 billion in TARP funds.

Market reacted positively to these incentives but gloom economic data soon took over.

Among economic reports for the day, the Conference Board in US reported today that falling gas prices perked up consumers in November. Confidence among consumers rose in November from a record low in October. The November consumer confidence index increased to 44.9 from an upwardly revised October reading of 38.8.

While falling gas prices perked up consumers in November, concern has grown over the current jobs market. However, consumers' view of current conditions worsened in November, with those saying jobs are "hard to get" rising to 37.2% from 36.6% in the prior month.

However, consumers' view of current conditions worsened in November, with that index declining to 42.2 from 43.5. Overall consumers' expectations were less pessimistic, with that index rising to 46.7 from 35.7. Those expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months declined to 28.1% from 36.5%, and those expecting fewer jobs declined to 33.3% from 41.5%.

In a separate report, The Case-Shiller home price index reported that home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 1.8% in September from the prior month, and they fell a record 17.4% on a year-over-year basis. September's prices were down in all 20 cities, compared to both August 2008 and September 2007.

Also, the preliminary GDP report revised the contraction in the economy during the third quarter to 0.5% from 0.3%, which matched expectations. Third quarter consumption was revised to -3.7% from -3.1%, which was a larger decline than the expected reading of -3.2%.

Among major earning reports for the day, H-P reported earnings after yesterday's close. The company held its 2009 earning guidance steady. Also it reported its fourth quarter results matching expectations. The stock still skidded 7% today. This has pulled the technology sector down today though Google is trying to give some support.

Crude prices ended substantially lower today. Crude prices fell after traders speculated that tomorrow's weekly inventory report will show rise in weekly supplies. But losses in crude price were limited due to the weak dollar. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for January delivery closed at $50.77/barrel (lower by $3.73 or 6.8%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, prices touched a low of $50.52.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange neared 1.9 billion, and advancers ousting decliners more than 2 to 1. On the Nasdaq, more than 1 billion shares traded, and advancers topped decliners 5 to 4.

For tomorrow, most investors will turn their attention to the October durable goods orders data and October personal income and spending data. Initial jobless claims data and October new home sales for the week ended 22 November will also hit the wires tomorrow.

Private sector banks will be forced to cut


Finance Minister P Chidambaram today said private sector banks will be forced to cut lending rates sooner than later due to competition from public sector counterparts.

"Public sector banks have reduced their prime lending rates by 75 basis points and extended it to all kinds of loans, like home loans and personal loans. Private sector banks at a meeting with Finance Secretary had said they will also follow the suit. But they have not," Chidambaram told a press conference organised by Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee.

It may be recalled that in response to the measures taken by the Reserve Bank to ease liquidity situation, PSU banks slashed their prime lending rates by 75 basis points, but the private sector banks are yet to make a move in this regard.

The Finance Minister added, "They have their own reasons. I am not commenting on those reasons, but I have no doubt in my mind that competition from public sector banks will force private sector banks to reduce their lending rates sooner than later...it will happen sooner than later."

Taking a dig at BJP ahead of the Assembly elections in Delhi on November 29, he criticised their proposal during the NDA rule to bring down government equity in public sector banks from 51 per cent to 33 per cent. He wondered as to what would have happened had that proposal been implemented.

While maintaining that "our banks are 100 per cent safe", the Finance Minister said, "Even though flow of foreign capital into India has slowed down, it will eventually reverse and rupee will find its true level as India remains the most attractive investment destination."

Daily Market Outlook - Nov 26 2008


Daily Market Outlook - Nov 26 2008

Daily Technicals - Nov 26 2008


Daily Technicals - Nov 26 2008

Bank of India - Sell


We recommend a sell in Bank of India from a short-term trading perspective. It is apparent from the charts that the stock has been on a broad sideways consolidation in the range of Rs 200 and 300 from this July. The stock tested the upper boundary level of Rs 300 thrice between September and October and was unable to move beyond this level. The 200-day moving average was providing significant resistance for the stock. It conclusively breached its 21- and 50-day moving average by tumbling almost 10 per cent last week. The daily relative strength index has entered into the bearish zone from the neutral region. Moving average convergence and divergence is indicating a sell and is declining in the negative territory which is inline with the stock. We are bearish on the stock from a short-term horizon. We anticipate the stock’s current decline to prolong further until it hits our price target of Rs 208 in the forthcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 246.