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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Reliance Power - Why is TV18 against it ?

Reliance Power: Is The Management Being Vilified For Substantive Reasons?

By Mid January 2008, India's largest IPO till date, the Rs 11500 crore Reliance Power IPO would have opened, and though CNBC and its leadership have been at the forefront of a campaign to avoid the issue, a closer look might suggest beneficiaries lie elsewhere and so the Issue must be successful.

-7000 MW of Power Generating Capacity proposed by Reliance Power will cost Rs 28,000 to Rs 30,000 crore ande become available by 2011.

-Overall Capacity of Reliance Power Will rise to 26000 MW by 2016, and cost Rs 104,000 crore.

-Beyond the Equity element of Rs 11500 crore, Banks and FIs will fund the balance Rs 90,000 crore as Debt. If CNBC is to be believed, then all Banks should have substantial NPAs and possibly close by 2016. So why should we not pull out all our money and stuff under the mattress.

-In a Power Gen project, 95 per cent of the Investment goes into land rest into Equipment. Here we are talking of a collective order book for Siemens, Alstom, Bhel and ABB of the magnitude of Rs 95000 crore which 4-5 times the Revenues these concerns generate in a year.

-This will need Building up of New Power Plants by Bhel, Siemens, Alstom and ABB unless the Equipment gets imported.

-The Power Grid and Transmission Capacity will have to be raised to enable this additional power generated to move. This will imply higher demand for Crompton Greaves, Areva, Bharat Bijlee, Jyoti Structures, Sujana Tower and RPG Transmission.

-There will be additional requirement of Steel Wires, Steel Structurals and fresh production of Steel making capacities to sustain this growth in Demand from the Power-Downstream segements. So Iron Ore Mines and Mining Equipment manufacturers like Revathi, Atlas Copco, TIL and Ingersoll Rand will be favoured.

-Then there will be the producers of electricals Havells, Genus, LNT, Indo Asian Fuse Gear, which will need colossal amounts of circuit breakers, switchgears and modern tripping systems.

-Finally, we will need more Coal mines either in India or Overseas to sustain these Thermal Plants which are proposed to be set up by Reliance Power, and there might be some based upon Gas and Nuclear Fuel, for which separate fuel requirements will have to be met.

-At roughly $ 30 bn of direct investments Reliance Power would have cost about 3 per cent of India's GDP by 2016 and will add about roughly $ 40 bn or 4 per cent of India's additional GDP by 2016.

-Overall success of Reliance Power will imply prosperity for millions of people in the country who have waited for 6 decades to see Light and Employment.

-A success of Reliance Power will also mean a success of the GOI policy to promoter Ultra Mega Power Plants with a single location capacity of 4000 MW and costing anywhere between Rs 16000 to Rs 20000 crore and prime examples are Sasan, Mundhra and Krishnapatnam bagged by Tata Power and Reliance Power.

-Most of these UMPPs will be set up as Special Purpose Vehicles and listed in Overseas nations, minimising risk for local investor and broadbasing investor participation. If SPVs were not there none of the mammoth Real Estate projects being set up by DLF or Unitech go off the plinth, but they are going ahead.

-Reliance Power too is not headed by fools, and so most of their expansions will come under SPVs minimising risk.

-More importantly Promoters and QIP are taking placements at the same price as general investors, so where is the self aggrandisement of Mr. Anil Ambani?

-Even as I write there is a Power cut in Delhi and it has lasted 2 hours a day for most of this Winter and for the past 44 winters I have seen the scenario has been ranging from grim to pitiful.

-I remember standing in Queues to pay power bills in the past, to crooked GOI servants, and these people now work under Reliance Energy and Tata Power Distcoms in Delhi without creating problems for civillians.

-The GOI intends to put up 8 such UMPPs costing Rs 160,000 crore over the next decade. Will all these projects too would be unviable as per CNBC or do we see a massive transformation like China, which set up one Thermal plant every week for the last 5 years?

-Stock valuations are a trade-off between High Initial Equity sold at par or Low Equity sold at premium, to generate better earnings per share for the Investors. It can be argued whether the pricing of Reliance Power is aggressive, to caste motives on the management is incorrect.

-Each and Every Investor has the right to or not to participate in the Reliance Power issue, and thus far no one has put a gun to anyone's temple for putting a application in the IPO. This is a conscious choice each investor can make without recourse to the gigolos at CNBC and the sluts they display daily.

-To the best of my knowledge no journalist ensconced in cushy chairs and luxury clothes have ever had a hard days work setting up a power plant, pulling transmission wires over deserts and hills or dug up mines in sub human conditions. If they had done anything of this magnitude they would not have taken sides on the Reliance Power issue.

-If the guys in the media were to be believed the Mundhra Port would have never happened, neither would have Pipavav and Natural Gas would not have been found by Reliance but by Ongc. That the private sector is thriving and contributing needs to be appreciated and backed up by investors.

-Those who cannot take risks or will not hold out for 10 years have better options in the Power, atleast 20 of them and they would do well to take their money elsewhere rather than be a part of the Valuation, PE, market cap to Sales and Book Value story being popularised by Reliance Power.

-7 years ago TV18 had come on-stage with a bang listed at Rs 1600 a share, today the CNBC guys are rich even after excercising their stock options at ludicrous prices, I think "history got repeated" but those guys instead of repenting are condemning others.

Via Email Forward - Thanks

Post Session Market Commentary

The Sensex opened with a positive gap of 30 points at 20,903 but weakness in the overseas markets saw the index slip into negative zone. The index dropped to a low of 20,701 - down 202 points from the day's open.

Fresh buying at lower levels saw the index rebound into positive zone in late morning deals. The buying momentum was so strong that the index rallied past the 21,000-mark to hit a fresh all-time intra-day high of 21,113 - up 413 points from the day's low.

A fresh round of profit-taking in noon deals saw the Sensex finally close almost flat 20,870 - down three points.

The market breadth was fairly negative - out of 2,912 stocks traded, 2,128 declined, 766 advanced and 18 were unchanged today.


NTPC soared 4.5% to Rs 277. HDFC surged 3.5% to Rs 3,174.

Reliance Communications gained 2% at Rs 821. Hindalco and HDFC Bank rallied 1.7% each to Rs 212 and Rs 1,745, respectively.

DLF and Grasim moved up 1.5% each to Rs 1,169 and Rs 3,451, respectively.

Reliance Energy was up over 1% at Rs 2,565.


Mahindra & Mahindra plunged 2.7% to Rs 808.

BHEL dropped 2% to Rs 2,444. ONGC, ICICI Bank and Ranbaxy slipped 1.7% each to Rs 1,299, Rs 1,310 and Rs 412, respectively.

ACC and Maruti declined 1.5% each to Rs 970 and Rs 926, respectively.

ITC was down over 1% at Rs 228.


Reliance Natural Resources topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 701.70 crore followed by Reliance Capital (Rs 369.30 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 331.80 crore), Reliance Communications (Rs 308.50 crore) and Reliance Energy (Rs 222 crore).

Himachal Futuristic led the volume chart with trades of around 3.18 crore followed by Reliance Natural Resources (2.95 crore), Ispat Industries (1.82 crore), Centurion Bank of Punjab (1.55 crore) and Cybermate Inf (1.49 crore).

Nifty January 2008 futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment declines

Nifty January 2008 futures were at 6260, at discount of 12 points as compared to spot closing of 6272.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 74,171.29 crore, which was lower than Rs 84,355.67 crore on Tuesday, 8 January 2008.

Reliance Capital January 2008 futures were at discount, at 2852, compared to the spot closing of 2860.

NTPC January 2008 futures were at premium, at 278.10, compared to the spot closing of 277.15.

Housing Development and Infrastructure January 2008 futures were at premium, at 1365, compared to the spot closing of 1356.50.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 15.85 points or 0.25% at 6272.

Tulip IT Services

Tulip IT Services

Prakash Industries

Prakash Industries



Patel Engineering

Patel Engineering

India Strategy - Jan 4 2008

India Strategy - Jan 4 2008

Orient Paper and Industries

Orient Paper and Industries

Quarterly Earnings Preview FY08

Quarterly Earnings Preview FY08

Reliance Power - Udayan Mukherjee

The most awaited event of the Indian primary market calendar is here. Reliance Power may have priced its IPO in the Rs 415-450 band but the active grey market price is Rs 900. This gives Reliance Power a potential listing market capitalisation of Rs 2,00,000 crore. With zero installed capacity today, expected generation capacity of 6,000 megawatts by 2011 and 26,000 MW by 2016. NTPC, in itself a richly valued stock, has an installed capacity of 27,000 MW and commands a similar market cap. The market has simply taken an eight year leap and priced it in the Reliance Power stock today. I find that staggering.

A look at the ratios look even more mind numbing. This IPO money is being raised to execute about 7,000 MW of capacity. That should be done by 2012. That year, if all goes perfectly, Reliance Power will have revenues of Rs 7,700 crore, EPS of under Rs 8 and a book value of Rs 70. At the listing price of Rs 900, the stock would be trading at a 2012 price-earning ratio of 110, a price to book value ratio of 13 and a market cap to sales ratio of 26. These are four-year forward ratios, remember. The ratios moderate somewhat for 2016 but by then much further dilution would have happened to finance the additional capacity so the market cap would balloon substantially.

This is madness. While many explanations abound on how such valuations could be justified, this is so similar to the 100-plus PEs the market gave freely to information technology stocks back in 2000. While all of us know how that story finally ended, we should also remember how long that madness continued. The power madness, too, will end, sector tailwind notwithstanding, but it may continue longer than we think it can before fizzling out. While it lasts, the most expensive stock in the sector will become the valuation benchmark and will pull the others into the clouds. Just remember the old adage: those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

(The writer is Executive Editor, CNBC-TV18)

Via Hindustan Times

Reliance Power IPO - 6 days to go

Reliance Power IPO ?

Yes ! Anil bhai's dream! 602 (67.9%)

No! Scam !! 284 (32.1%)

Votes so far: 886

Vote NOW >> See right TOP for the POLL

See the Previous Trends

Goldman Sachs - Recession in 2008

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.

In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.

The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.

The weakening economy will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent. Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.

Via Reuters

Market Close: Correction or consolidation ?

A sea saw trading session of market ended marginal in red. Markets took cues from its global counterparts and opened in red. Post that the session was highly volatile. Software and selective power stocks aided the indices. Software is seen some interest on hopes of good results. While auto, pharma, metals, oil and gas and FMCG stocks ended in the red. Mid caps and small caps were the major losers. Markets may take cues from companies quarterly performances as results are awaited. Although the Asian indices ended in green, European indices are trading in red.

There has been big optimism among retailers on IPO specially Reliance. Probably this may be one of the reasons for profit booking as money flow from secondary market to primary market. The hope is stronger cashflows From Middle East and China will prevent the big downsides. However we believe that there is likely to be a flight to safety triggered by the US slippages. The US cut in interest rates possibility is another ray of hope.

Sensex was down by 4 points at 20869.77. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in BHEL (2443.8,-2 percent), ONGC (1298.65,-2 percent), ICICI Bk (1310.45,-2 percent), Ranbaxy (411.6,-2 percent) and ACC (970.05,-2 percent). Losses were restricted by gains in NTPC (277.15,+4 percent), HDFC (3174.25,+4 percent), RCVL (820.8,+2 percent), Hindalco (212.5,+2 percent) and HDFC Bk (1745.1,+2 percent).

Sayaji Hotels is into the hotel and restaurant business. The hotels of the company are located in Indore and Baroda. The restaurant business of the company is managed by a 100% subsidiary 'Sanchi Hotels Pvt Ltd' under the brand name of 'Barbeque-Nation'. The concept is good and we like the business model. Capex plans of the company include setting up a new 4 star hotel in Pune with expected room rental revenues of Rs 3,300 per day. Hotel would come up in Waked near Pune with room inventory of 240 rooms. The stock has rallied on the interest of some big investors. Keep watching this space to know more.

KEI Industries Limited (KEI) is one of the established player and the second largest power cable company in India. KEI is into manufacture of high and low tension cables (HT and LT), control and instrumentation cables, house wires and stainless steel wires. The Indian Power Cable market is estimated at more than Rs 8,500 cr. About 67,000 MW of power generation capacity and 60,000 circuit km of transmission network are proposed to be added by 2012 as per 11th Five Year plan. The expenditure estimated for power generation alone is at Rs 270,000 cr and Rs 69,500 cr for power transmission. The cost of power cables is around 3% of the investment in power generation and 2% for power transmission. This will generate a huge demand for power cables in near future. KEI is growing aggressively by expanding capacity to meet domestic and international demand. On the whole the macro scenario seems to be best for KEI in future. Do read our note on KEI to know more.

Technically Speaking: Sensex traded highly volatile and finally ended flat. It made intraday high of 21,113 and days low of 20,701. Volumes were good at Rs 9610crs. The breath was in favor of Declines, where Advances stood at 760 and Declines at 2136. Sensex resistance stands at 21,100 and support lies at 20,520.

Smart Picks 2008

Smart Picks 2008

Mahindra Lifespace Developers

Mahindra Lifespace Developers
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,096
Current market price: Rs799

Pioneering the SEZ revolution

Key points

  • Leveraging on SEZ expertise: Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLD) is the only private sector player to have an operational SEZ, the Chennai SEZ, in the country. Leveraging on this rich expertise, the company is planning to develop one more SEZ in Jaipur. For this it has already acquired 2,100 acre of land. It expects to acquire the balance land for the project by FY2008 end.
  • More upside possible from Karla and Chennai SEZ extensions: MLD also has plans to develop another 3,000-acre multi-product SEZ in Karla and to extend its Chennai SEZ by 1,980 acre. However, it has acquired only 100 acre of land for the Chennai project so far. Hence, we have not considered these two projects in our valuation. Any development on these projects would lead to an upward revision in our valuation.
  • Margins to improve: Given the higher revenue contribution from the Chennai SEZ's non-processing area and better realisation for the Jaipur SEZ's processing area, we expect MLD's EBITDA margin to improve to 55.2% by FY2010 from 14.3% in FY2007. Consequently, we expect MLD's earnings to grow at a CAGR of 179.2% over FY2007-10.
  • Other initiatives: MLD also plans to develop space aggregating 2.7 mn sq ft over the next few years. These projects contribute Rs83 per share to our valuation. MLD is also implementing the Tirupur Water Supply and Sewerage project through its subsidiary Mahindra Infrastructure Developers. It is a 30-year BOOT project and is expected to generate an annual income of Rs6-8 crore.
  • Attractive valuation: We value the stock using the SOTP method. Given MLD's operational expertise in SEZ and premium brand in the other verticals, we value the Chennai and Jaipur SEZs and the other planned developments at 1.0x NAV of Rs1,038 per share. We value the balance land for which its has no development plans in the short to medium term at Rs58 per share, ie at a discount to the current market price. We initiate Buy recommendation on MLD with a price target of Rs1,096.

Future Capital Holdings, Reliance Power Grey Market Premiums

Future Capital Holdings 700 to 765 620 to 630

Reliance Power 405 to 450 400 to 410


Aries Agro 130 20 to 25

Porwal Autocomponents 75 DISCOUNT (The company is desperately advertising on CNBC saying that they have got orders!!)

Precision Pipes & Profiles 150 25 to 30

Post Market Commentary

The Indian market closed on a negative note after coming off sharply from the higher levels in the final trading hours of the session. The Sensex after a flat opening dipped down by taking negative cues from the global markets but managed to recover towards the mid session to touch an intraday high of 21,113.13. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps stocks remained out of favor as most selling was seen from these baskets and they closed lower by 47.08 points and 146.18 points at 9,769.99 and 13,369.95 respectively. The Oil & Gas, Metal and CG was the most hit as they closed with heavy losses. The BSE Sensex closed with marginal loss of 3.55 points at 20,869.78 and NSE Nifty closed lower by 15.85 points at 6,272.

BSE Metal index declined by 114.62 points to close at 19,423.72. Scrips that dropped are Sesa Goa (4.02%), Jindal Saw (3.12%), Gujarat NRE (3.98%), JSW Steel (2.98%) and Jindal Stainless (2.25%).

BSE Realty index closed higher by 82.81 points at 13,566.71. Scrips that grew are HDIL (12.19%), Mahindralife (3.84%), Anant Raj Industries (2.21%), DLF (1.59%)

BSE Bankex index slipped by 45.52 points to close at 12,041.05 as Indian Overseas (2.81%), Canara Bank (2.37%), Kotak Bank (2.12%), PNB (2%), Union Bank (1.90%).

BSE Oil & Gas index declined by 234.13 points at 13,817.14. Scrips that fell are RNRL (6.47%), RPL (5.90%), BPCL (5.63%), Essar Oil (3.17%), HPCL (2.25%) and ONGC (1.76%).

BSE Capital Goods index slipped by 139.58 points to close at 20,075.34. Scrips that dropped are Jyothi Structures (4.21%), Kalpataru (3.42%), Areva (3.15%), SKF India (2.71%) and BHEL (2.02%).

BSE Health Care fell by 24.06 points to close at 4,273.05 as Dishman Pharma (6.53%), Fortis Health care (3.13%), Ranbaxy (1.65%), Aventis (1.36%) and Biocon (1.33%) closed lower.

BSE IT index grew by 10.77 points to close at 4,255.52. Scrips that advanced are I-Flex (8.18%), Mphasis (4.21%), Patni Computers (3.41%), Rolta India (1.67%), Mosear Baer (1.63%) and Satyam (0.80%).

Market trips on volatile moves

The market remained under the grip of strong volatile moves as key indices kept swinging between positive and negative zones through the session. After resuming slightly above its last close at 20,903, the market snapped gains in early trades before frenzied buying propelled the index to an intra-day high of 21,113. While the market failed to make any further impact thereafter, the index drifted into the red once again in noon trades to touch the day's low of 20,701. The Sensex, after witnessing an intra-day swing of 412 points, ended 4 points down at 20,870, while the Nifty declined 4 points to close at 6,272.

The market breadth ended weak. Of the 2,912 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,128 stocks declined, 766 stocks advanced and 18 stocks ended unchanged. In a volatile market, the BSE Realty index rose 0.61% while the BSE CD index, the BSE Teck index, the BSE Power index and the BSE IT index ended with steady gains. Other sectoral indices, however, ended at lower levels.

Dragging the Sensex, M&M shed 2.67% at Rs807.90, BHEL dipped 2.02% at Rs2,443.80, ONGC lost 1.76% at Rs1,298.65 and ICICI Bank was down 1.73% at Rs1,310.45. Ranbaxy, ACC, Maruti, ITC, RIL and Tata Motors were down 1% each. NTPC, however, advanced 4.49% at Rs277.15, HDFC moved up 3.59% at Rs3,174.25 and Reliance Communications moved up 2.05% at Rs820.80. Hindalco, HDFC Bank and DLF ended with steady gains.

Among the Realty stocks HDIL led the momentum with 12.19% at Rs1,357.75, Mahindra Life, Anant Raj, DLF, Sobha Developers, Indiabulls Realty, Peninsula Land and Puravankara Projects gained 0.13-3.84% each. Power stocks CESC, Siemens, Torrent Power and REL rose over 2-4% each.

Over 1.81 Crore Ispat Industries shares changed hands on the BSE followed by RPL (1.39 Crore shares), Ashok Leyland (75.30 lakh shares), NTPC (57.85 lakh shares) and Spice Tele (37.83 lakh shares).

Reliance Capital was the most actively traded counter on the BSE with a turnover of Rs369 crore followed by RPL (Rs331 crore), Reliance Communications (Rs308 crore), REL (Rs222 crore) and RIL (Rs160 crore).

Sensex ends flat amidst volatility

The market came sharply off higher level in late trade on a volatile day of trade. Earlier, the market had recovered from an initial slump to hit a record high in mid-afternoon trade. Capital goods, auto, metal, FMCG stocks declined. IT stocks rose. BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices underperformed Sensex. The market breadth was weak on BSE.

European markets which opened after Indian market were weak. Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, were higher.

The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 3.55 points or 0.02% to 20,869.78. It hit a record high of 21,113.13 in mid-afternoon trade. At day’s high, Sensex gained 239.80 points. Sensex hit a low of 20,701.49, in morning trade. At day’s low of 20,701.49, Sensex had lost 171.84 points.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty lost 15.85 points or 0.25% to 6,272.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 9610 crore, lower than Tuesday (8 January 2008)'s Rs 11870 crore.

Nifty January 2008 futures were at 6260, at discount of 12 points as compared to spot closing of 6272.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 74,171.29 crore, which was lower than Rs 84,355.67 crore on Tuesday, 8 January 2008.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.48% to 9,769.58. The BSE Small-Cap index was down 1.08% to 13,369.95. Both these indices underperformed Sensex.

BSE Power index (up 0.23% to 4,818.43), BSE IT index (up 0.25% to 4,255.52), BSE Consumer Durables index (up 0.4% to 6,596), BSE Realty index (up 0.61% to 13,566.71) outperformed Sensex.

BSE Bankex (down 0.38% to 12,041.05), BSE Healthcare index (down 0.56% to 4,273.05), BSE FMCG index (down 0.57% to 2,490.71), BSE Metal index (down 0.59% to 19,423.72), BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.69% to 20,075.34), BSE Auto index (down 0.9% to 5,544.15) and BSE Oil & Gas index (down 1.67% to 13,817.14) underperformed Sensex.

The market breadth was weak on BSE with 757 shares advancing as compared to 2,137 that declined. 25 remained unchanged. 18 stocks from Sensex pack were in red.

India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries declined 0.61% to Rs 3,031.95.

Capital goods stocks declined. Bharat Heavy Electricals (down 2.02% to Rs 2,443.80), Larsen & Toubro (down 0.07% to Rs 4,329.80) and Suzlon Energy (down 1.41% to Rs 2,241.60) edged lower.

Auto stocks declined. Tata Motors (down 0.48% to Rs 770.45), Bajaj Auto (down 0.23% to Rs 2,532.10), Maruti Suzuki India (down 1.48% to Rs 925.70), Hero Honda Motors (down 0.28% to Rs 688.15) edged lower.

Mahindra & Mahindra declined 2.67% to Rs 807.90 after the company said Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India (MHRIL), a leisure hospitality provider offering family holidays, has finalised a 2% private placement deal with the State Bank of India for a consideration of around Rs 80 crore.

FMCG majors declined. ITC (down 1.19% to Rs 227.95) and Hindustan Unilever (down 0.34% to 233.85) edged lower.

Metal stocks declined. Tata Steel (down 0.15% to Rs 890.50), Steel Authority of India (down 0.7% to Rs 261.25), National Alluminium Company (down 0.37% to Rs 498.65) edged lower. Hindalco Industries (up 1.7% to Rs 212.50) and Sterlite Industries (up 0.48% to Rs 1,039.75) edged higher.

India’s largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank declined 1.73% to Rs 1,310.45.

IT stocks rose. Wipro (up 0.6% to Rs 490.85) Satyam Computer Services (up 0.8% to Rs 427.90) and Tata Consultancy Services (up 0.36% to Rs 994.10) edged higher. India’s second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys Technologies declined 0.4% to Rs 1,655.55.

NTPC (up 4.49% to Rs 277.15), HDFC (up 3.59% to Rs 3,174.25), RelianceCommunications (up 2.05% to Rs 820.80) and HDFC Bank (up 1.68% to Rs 1,745.10) edged higher.

ONGC (down 1.76% to Rs 1,298.65), Ranbaxy Laboretories (down 1.65% to Rs 411.60) edged lower.

Himachal Futuristic Communications clocked the highest volume of 3.17 crore shares on BSE. The scrip declined 1.89% to Rs 57.20. Reliance Natural Resources clocked the second highest volume of 2.95 crore shares on BSE. The scrip declined 6.47% to Rs 228.35. Ispat Industries clocked the third highest volume of 1.81 crore shares on BSE. The scrip declined 0.58% to Rs 69. Centurion Bank of Punjab clocked the fourth highest volume of 1.54 crore shares on BSE. The scrip rose 0.51% to Rs 69.50. Cybermate Infotek clocked the fifth highest volume of 1.49 crore shares on BSE. The scrip rose 1.18% to Rs 18.

Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest turnover of Rs 701.70 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 369.31 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 331.85 crore), Reliance Communications (Rs 308.54 crore) and Reliance Energy (Rs 222.06 crore) were other turnover toppers in that order.

Fears of a US recession and poor results from major retailer Marks & Spencer hit European stocks hard. UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.85% to 6,302.20. Germany’s DAX was down 0.48% to 7,812.45.

Earlier, however, Asian stocks managed to shake off some of the fears, mainly on hopes that new US tax rebates may be in the works to boost consumers. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, China, Taiwan and South Korea were up by between 0.41% to 1.53%.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 238.42 points, or 1.86%, at 12,589.07 on Tuesday, 8 January 2008. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 25.99 points, or 1.84%, at 1,390.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 58.95 points, or 2.36%, at 2,440.51.

Tata Motors - 1L Car - Are you ready ?

Via NY Times

Reliance Power IPO Analysis

Reliance Power IPO Analysis

Short Term Trading Calls - Jan 9 2008

Satyam - SL - 410 - Target 460

TCS - SL - Rs 930 Target - Rs 1120

Market to drift lower

The market may edge lower tracking overnight fall in US stocks. US stocks tumbled on Tuesday, 8 January 2008, after a warning by phone company AT&T of soft consumer spending sparked a new round of recession fears. In addition, Countrywide Financial shares plummeted on growing alarm about the No. 1 mortgage lender's financial health, dragging down shares in the financial sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 238.42 points, or 1.86%, at 12,589.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 25.99 points, or 1.84%, at 1,390.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 58.95 points, or 2.36%, at 2,440.51.

Asian markets were mostly lower today, 9 January 2008. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea were down by between 0.5% to 0.9%. Key benchmark indices in China and Taiwan were up by between 0.16% to 0.54%.

Crude oil futures settled $1.31 higher at $96.40 a barrel on Tuesday, 8 January 2008.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 60.68 points or 0.29% to 20,873.33, a record closing high, on Tuesday, 8 January 2008. However, small-cap and mid-cap stocks which had surged sharply over the past few weeks tumbled. The BSE Small-Cap index lost 3.28% to 13,516.13. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 2.82% to 9,817.07.

Market men expect stepping up of buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). With the beginning of the new calendar year, FIIs are expected to make fresh fund allocations. FIIs pumped in Rs 71486.50 crore or $17.23 billion in Indian equities in calendar year 2007.

As per provisional data, FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 570.65 crore on Tuesday, 8 January 2008. Domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 92.08 crore on that day.

FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 147.92 crore in the futures & options segment on Tuesday. According to data released by the NSE, FIIs were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 629.39 crore and bought index options worth Rs 259.54 crore. They were net buyers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 232.42 crore and sold stock options worth Rs 10.49 crore.

Stock-specific activity may rule the roost in the near term based on expectations of results of individual firms. Earnings surprises hold the key for the market in the near term.

Telecom sector is expected to continue to post strong earnings growth in Q3 December 2007 on the back of rising new subscriber additions whereas healthy order book will ensure that capital goods firms such as Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Heavy Electricals will turn out good performance for yet another quarter.

Media sector, too, is expected to post decent to strong growth on the back of higher advertisement rates. On the other hand, the IT sector is likely to be hit by the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar.

Steel sector is expected to show strong growth on the back of volume growth and higher price realizations. The performance of the auto sector is expected to be sluggish due to sluggish sales and pressure on margins on account of higher input costs. The banking sector is expected see increase in margins due to cut in deposit rates, and higher fee based income. Increase in costs and dismal volume growth is expected to weight on the performance of the cement sector.

IT bellwether Infosys Technologies kickstarts the reporting season on Friday, 11 January 2008.

Meanwhile, Reliance Power, a 50% subsidiary of Reliance Energy (REL) will raise over Rs 11000 crore from India's biggest ever IPO scheduled to open for subscription next week.

Recent economic data has raised concerns that the US economy may be headed towards a recession. A US recession may not impact India’s economic growth in a big way given that domestic demand is a key driver of the Indian economy. India's economy is expected to post strong growth for a long period due to favourable demographics. Economists also reckon that a healthy investment cycle will continue to support growth through a self-perpetuating cycle of income creation, savings and investment.

Though the Indian economy may be relatively insulated from the US recession, any risk aversion globally causing setback in global markets, may cast its shadow on the Indian bourses.

Morning Call - Jan 9 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a supp of 6155 and 6230 with resis at 6323

Cash Mkt: Sell : ACC below 985 with a TGT of 960 and a SL of 993

Buy: HPCL above 360 with a TGT of 382 and a SL of 352

F&O: Buy Infy above 1680 with a TGT of 1725 and a SL of 1665

Buy KTK bank above 270 with a TGT of 282 and a SL of 265

Out House :

Markets at a support of 20341 & 20502 levels with resistance at 20898 & 20989 levels .

Buy : RIL & REL at dips

Buy : RPL & RNRL

Buy : NTPC & Jphydro

Buy : Kotak Bank & IciciBank

Buy : TataMotor

Buy : IBUllsreal & IBullsFin

Buy : ITC & HLL

Buy : SBIN

Buy : Adhunik & Religare

Dark Horse : REL , RPL , Jphydro , RNRL , IBullReal , Aban , RIL & SBIN

Pre Open Market Commentary - Jan 9 2008

The Indian market today is likely to have a negative opening on the back of weak cues from global markets. Yesterday, the Indian market closed with modest gains after facing the volatility throughout the trading session. The market opened with handsome gains but was unable to sustain the momentum at higher levels and fell. But the market came off sharply towards the end of the session to close with marginal gains. The Small Caps and Mid Caps was the worst hit as they faced heavy selling across the counters The BSE Sensex closed higher by 60.68 points at 20,873.33 and NSE Nifty closed up by 8.75 points at 6,287.85. We expect that the market may remain volatile during the trading session.

On Tuesday, the US market closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declined by 238.34 points to close at 12,589.15 along with S&P 500 index closing lower by 25.99 points at 1,390.19 and NASDAQ fell by 58.95 points to close at 2,440.51

Indian ADRS closed mixed. In technology sector, Patni computers grew by 3.26% along with Wipro by 2.11%, Satyam by 1.27% while Infosys fell by 2.37%. In banking sector, ICICI bank and HDFC bank dropped by (2.92%) and (1.61%) respectively. MTNL and VSNL slipped by (2.54%) and (1.16%) respectively.

The major stock markets in Asia are trading weak. Hang Seng is trading lower by 205.76 points at 26,907.16. Japan''s Nikkei is trading down by 108.81 points at 14,419.86. Singapore Strait Times is trading at 3,319.67 down by 18.60 points.

The FIIs on Tuesday stood as net seller both in equity as well as in debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs4,891.40 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs104.60 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs4,972.30 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs242.60 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was (Rs80.90 Crore) and net debt was (Rs138 Crore).

Today, Nifty has support at 6,162 and resistance at 6,348 and BSE Sensex has support at 20,523 and resistance at 21,091.

Market Outlook - Jan 9 2008

Market Outlook - Jan 9 2008

Daily Trading Calls - Jan 9 2008

Nifty (6288) Supp 6192 Res 6392

Sell Cipla (209) SL 213
Target 201, 198

Sell Zee Ent (306) SL 309
Target 299, 297

Buy RCOM (804) SL 798
Target 818, 820

Buy Mukand (136) SL 132
Target 142, 145

Buy Satyam (424) SL 419
Target 433, 436

Global cues could hurt opening

Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense.

Can the equity markets in India and other developing countries continue to be resilient in the face of mounting evidence that the US is heading for a recession sooner or later? We see a slight fall at the opening bell, following the overnight crack on Wall Street and some weakness in Asian markets. However, the bulls may just rebound as Asian markets have recovered from steep falls early in the morning. The trend later in the day will be dictated by movement in global markets. Expect the intra-day gyrations to continue unabated, as investors are looking for some key results before taking a call. Lots of stock centric action is also expected. The small- and mid-cap space may remain in the limelight one way or the other.

Meanwhile, the results season is well underway and a few earnings reports are already out. This morning, IT firm iGate Global Solutions has come out with what seems to be good set of numbers. But, the company has applied to regulators for delisting and is awaiting their approval. The company has set a delisting price of Rs410 per share. The stock closed yesterday at Rs397 and hasn't moved at all in the past one month. Another software company, Mastek will announce its results later in the day. This will set the stage for the biggest IT result - that of Infosys - on Friday. The market is eagerly awaiting whether Infosys numbers will be better than the last two quarters and whether it will give a positive outlook for the year. Some experts are negative on the sector over the long-term, barring a few who might outperform, while others are not so pessimistic after all. Lehman Brothers has apparently upgraded all the top IT firms ahead of their results.

Metal stocks could be under some pressure amid reports that the Government is considering sifting to an Ad Valorem rates of royalty on all sorts of ores. Unitech, HFCL, BPL, RCOM, Idea and Shyam Tele could gain as a financial daily says that these companies will get LoIs from the DoT soon. What they will do with it remains to be seen. 3i Infotech, Aztecsoft and MindTree will attract attention amid reports of some M&A action. TVS Motor might gain as the Supreme Court has refused to stay the sales of its 125 cc bike, the Flame.

Wall Street has never had such a bad start to a new year. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has lost about 5.3%, the Dow is down 5.1% and the Nasdaq has shed 8%. There is a school of thought that believes that India could be the least affected by a steep slowdown in the US, as its growth story is more rooted in local factors. Rising consumption coupled with the ever-increasing investments in infrastructure will continue to drive profits of India Inc. Add to this a possible rationalization in direct tax rates and a possible rate reduction later in the year and the story looks even more compelling. Having said that, a protracted recession in the US and a global economic slowdown will surely have some dampening effect on India.

Results Today: Axis Bank, iGate Global, Mastek, Sayaji Hotels, South India Bank, Dolat Investments and Compact Disc India.

Saurashtra Cement has said that the Gujarat High Court has approved the CDR Scheme for restructuring of the debt of the company's Secured Lenders. A certified copy of the order of the Gujarat High Court is awaited.

SREI Infrastructure Finance has launched the first Shariat compliant instrument, a US$50mn facility arranged and book run by HSBC. The syndication has received overwhelming response from investors in Asia and Middle East, says SREI Infrastructure Finance.

DBG Retail Holdings, a 100% subsidiary of Koutons Retail India, plans to acquire 51% or more stake in Touchwood International, the owner of 'Upper Class' brand and which has presence in the ladies and gents segment.

EMCO Board will consider a stock split on January 17.

Sarda Energy & Minerals says that due to worker unrest, the operations at its iron ore mines have been suspended temporarily. Meanwhile, the company has signed a MOU with the Government of Chhattisgarh for installing a 1100 MW Thermal Power Plant in the state.

US stocks tumbled on Tuesday, continuing the grim start to the new year, on growing concerns that the world's biggest economy could slip into a recession amid the current turmoil in housing and credit markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst first five trading days of the year ever.

A worse-than-forecast home sales and a warning by AT&T on weaker customer spending sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March. AT&T declined the most in almost five years after CEO Randall Stephenson said the biggest US telecom firm faces softness in its consumer business.

Countrywide Financial tumbled the most since October 1987 on concern that the largest US mortgage lender is short of cash.

The S&P 500 dropped 26 points, or 1.8%, to 1,390.19, the lowest since March 16. The Dow slumped 238 points, or 1.9%, to 12,589.07. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 59 points, or 2.4%, to 2,440.51.

US stock indices were volatile throughout the session, but turned lower in the last hour on a slew of bad news - including AT&T's warning on its consumer business, questions about the financial health of Countrywide Financial and a report showing a spike in consumer credit.

Market breadth was negative. Nine stocks dropped for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

All the three US indexes are now down 10% from the highs hit in November, on a closing level. This is construed as a correction in technical parlance. Technical analysts say following recent losses, the Dow and the S&P 500 have dropped treacherously close to critical support. The million-dollar question is will this lead to further crack or induce fresh buying?

The National Association of Realtors said that contracts to sell existing homes fell in November by a steeper-than-expected margin. The group also pushed back its forecast for a price rebound to 2009.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that housing market problems are not easing. Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren said that the US could see the longest housing sector correction in 50 years.

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the corresponding yields, as investors sought safety in government debt, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.77% from 3.83% late on Monday. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

US light crude oil for February delivery rose $1.24 to settle at $96.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for February delivery rallied $18.30 to $880.30 an ounce.

European shares closed higher. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% to 353.42. The French CAC-40 gained 0.8% at 5,495.67, while the UK's FTSE 100 added 0.3% to 6,356.50 and the German DAX 30 climbed 0.4% to 7,849.99.

In emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was up 2.15% at 62,080 while the IPC index in Mexico gained 0.4% at 28,267 and the ISE National-30 index in Turkey advanced 1.2% to 66,941.

Asian markets were trading slightly lower, but had recovered smartly from early lows.

Bulls await key results

A historic trading session ended with positive bias amid volatile trading session. For the third consecutive day markets managed to end in green. Benchmark Sensex hit the 21,000 mark for the first time and took almost 49 trading session to cover the 1,000 points.

However, after touching the milestone key indices turned choppy and Sensex swung over 350 points and Nifty index over 130 points between their days high and low. The mid-cap and the small-cap stocks looked to be losing steam as traders preferred to book some profit. Finally, 30-share Sensex closed at 20,873 gaining 60 points and Nifty ended at 6,287 up 8 points.

IT stocks were in the limelight ahead of Infosys result on January 11. Heavyweight Satyam Computer rose over 2.6% to Rs424, Infosys was up 1.5% to Rs1662, Wipro gained 1.5% to Rs489 and i-Flex added 0.8% to Rs1466.

Suzlon Energy was up 4% to Rs2223 after its unit bagged an order for supply of 42.5MW of wind power turbine capacity to Spanish companies. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2298 and a low of Rs2180 and recorded volumes of over 14,00,000 shares on NSE.

Cranes Software slipped 2% to Rs143. The company announced the acquisition of US based specialized auto consulting and product development firm, Engineering Technology Associates, through its subsidiary Cranes Software Inc reports stated. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs156 and a low of Rs142 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Marksans Pharma was down 2% to Rs340. Reports stated that the company acquired UK based pharma company Hale Group. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs348 and a low of Rs317 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.

Bilpower slipped over 7% to Rs327. Reports stated that the company dropped their plans of raising US$15mn via FCCBs. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs362 and a low of Rs326 and recorded volumes of over 99,000 shares on NSE.

Patel Engineering slipped 3.5% to Rs964. The company announced its Q3 results with net profit at Rs388.5mn (up 31.8%) and net sales at Rs3.78bn (up 33%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1050 and a low of Rs951 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on NSE.

M&M advanced 2% to Rs830 after reports stated that the company acquired Italian design house GRD. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs843 and a low of Rs790 and recorded volumes of over 9,00,000 shares on NSE.

GAIL was up 0.7% to Rs524 amid reports that the Government’s move would allow the company to market entire PMT gas impacted gas supplies to GSPC and Gujarat Gas. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs535 and a low of Rs515 and recorded volumes of over 23,00,000 shares on NSE.

Reliance Energy marginally slipped 1.6% to Rs2541. According to reports GMR Ltd along with REL were the only Indian companies to be short listed for buying US$2bn Tuas Power owned by Temasek Holdings. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2641 and a low of Rs2485 and recorded volumes of over 30,00,000 shares on NSE.

What the FIIs are doing

FIIs were net buyers of Rs5.71bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday while the local institutions were net buyers of just Rs920.8mn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers of Rs1.48bn.

On Monday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs809mn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs300mn on the same day.

News Snippets:

Bajaj Auto unveils the prototype of its small car; company to roll out its LCV by 2009. (BL)

Power Grid Corp plans to enter entertainment and telecom business. (BS)

Maruti Suzuki India has ruled out any possibilities of price cut for Maruti 800. (ET)

DoT is set to issue Letter of Intent to new players; Unitech, HFCL, Sterlite amongst those likely to get LoIs. (FE)

ABG Shipyard is raising Rs8bn through QIP to double capacity at its Surat facility. (DNA)

Reliance Industries is to invest Rs200bn to develop KG basin. (BS)

ONGC looking for an alliance with overseas players to bid for blocks offered under NELP VII round. (FE)

BHEL in tie up talks with overseas shipyards for building offshore rigs. (Mint)

Aditya Birla Nuvo will consider raising fund through preferential allotment to promoters and promoters group. (ET)

Vedanta Resources plans to invest Rs500bn over next few years in metals, mining and power generation. (BS)

NDTV may sell 25-30% in its UK based to NBC Universal; deal valued at Rs6.5-8bn. (BS)

ICICI Bank and SBI have together acquired 3% in Jaiprakash Power Venture, subsidiary of Jaiprakash Associates. (ET)

Adani Enterprises plans to raise Rs30bn through the QIP route in first quarter of current year. (BS)

Ford India is expanding its manufacturing capabilities to make a small car for India. (TOI)

Bartronics India raises US$50mn via FCCB issue. (BS)

Omaxe is in talks with Starwood Hotels & Resorts of US; to invest Rs20bn in hotel projects. (BS)

L&T may stop production of 3-4 products due to cheaper imports from China. (DNA)

SBI picks up 2% stake in Mahindra Holidays and Resorts for Rs800mn in an pre-IPO placement. (BL)

Planning Commission recommends state government should grant more licenses for distilleries, imported and country liquor and breweries. (BS)

The government is considering to raise price of petrol and diesel by Rs2 and Rs1 per liter respectively. (ET)

Passenger vehicle sales grew 8% in December as compared to last year. (BL)

Farm sector NPAs could get budget relief. (FE)

The Slum Rehabilitation Authority to call for financial bids for the Rs93.5bn Dharavi Redevelopment Project. (ET)

Government has issued notification that effectively allows only sugar mills to produce ethanol from sugarcane. (BS)

PM acknowledges rising interest rates and appreciating rupee have caused economic slowdown and job losses; constitutes group to suggest revival. (Mint)

Sluggish performance by crude oil sector leads to decline in core sector growth to 5.3% in November. (BL)

Sugar production for 2007-08 seen below projected levels due to delays in crushing and lower yields. (BL)

The Board of Approvals of the union commerce department ha cancelled the ‘in-principal SEZ’ status granted to the New Kolkata International Development, the SPV formed by Indonesia’s Salim group. (TOI)

NSE Bulk Deal Watch

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
08-JAN-2008,AMBICAAGAR,Ambica Agarbathies & Arom,M/S OMKAR MEDIA CHANNELS (I)LTD,BUY,100100,30.26,-
08-JAN-2008,ANSALINFRA,ANSAL PROPERTIES & IND LT,J P M S L A/c Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd,BUY,2000000,410.00,-
08-JAN-2008,ARL,Arvind Remedies Limited,HI GROWTH CORPORATE SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,1646488,6.64,-
08-JAN-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,DEV SUMAN SINDHU,BUY,270267,44.18,-
08-JAN-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,KSHITIJ-PORTFOLIO-PVT.-LTD.,BUY,320927,45.59,-
08-JAN-2008,GOLDTELE,Goldstone Teleservices Lt,RAMAMIRTHAM S,BUY,141476,68.28,-
08-JAN-2008,HIMACHLFUT,Himachal Fut Comm Ltd,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,2670170,59.29,-
08-JAN-2008,IPCALAB,Ipca Laboratories Ltd.,HDFC MUTUAL FUND,BUY,200000,700.00,-
08-JAN-2008,MADHUCON,Madhucon Projects Limited,DSP MERILL LYNCH MUTUAL FUND,BUY,203208,675.05,-
08-JAN-2008,MALUPAPER,Malu Paper Mills Limited,J V S SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,145000,69.66,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,BUY,396853,179.08,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,SONAL SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD.,BUY,2217,186.75,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,399903,184.54,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,YOKE SECURITIES LIMITED,BUY,351451,174.48,-
08-JAN-2008,OMNITECH,Omnitech Infosolutions Li,MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED,BUY,212890,210.00,-
08-JAN-2008,OMNITECH,Omnitech Infosolutions Li,V AND U CAPLEASE PVT LTD,BUY,12016,213.52,-
08-JAN-2008,PIONEEREMB,Pioneer Embroideries Limi,RAMESHWARAM SHARES AND STOCKS LTD,BUY,100000,276.00,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,CHANDER PARKASH GUPTA,BUY,335315,111.02,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,MUGI CONSTRUCTIONS PVT.LTD.,BUY,225000,111.26,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,SHRI BRIJ SECURITIES PVT.LTD.,BUY,180219,110.45,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,230795,110.39,-
08-JAN-2008,TECHNOELEC,Techno Ele. & Eng. Co Ltd,BSMA LIMITED,BUY,313592,300.01,-
08-JAN-2008,TECHNOELEC,Techno Ele. & Eng. Co Ltd,THE INDIAMAN FUND (MAUROTIUS) LIMITED.,BUY,450000,300.00,-
08-JAN-2008,ZODIACLOTH,Zodiac Clothing Co. Ltd,ARUNA FUND LTD SUB A/C. OF NOTZ STUCKI ET CIE S A,BUY,71000,749.89,-
08-JAN-2008,ALPSINDUS,Alps Industries Ltd.,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,240000,84.86,-
08-JAN-2008,ANTGRAPHIC,Antarctica Graphics Ltd,CLIVIA INVESTMENTS LTD,SELL,550000,2.54,-
08-JAN-2008,ARL,Arvind Remedies Limited,HI GROWTH CORPORATE SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,1646488,6.63,-
08-JAN-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,DEV SUMAN SINDHU,SELL,270267,44.30,-
08-JAN-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,KSHITIJ-PORTFOLIO-PVT.-LTD.,SELL,320927,45.21,-
08-JAN-2008,HIMACHLFUT,Himachal Fut Comm Ltd,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,2669623,59.43,-
08-JAN-2008,IPCALAB,Ipca Laboratories Ltd.,MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER MAURITIUS CO. LTD,SELL,200000,700.00,-
08-JAN-2008,MADHUCON,Madhucon Projects Limited,RELIANCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO.LTD.,SELL,200000,675.00,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,BSMA LTD.,SELL,485687,180.14,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,SELL,396853,179.62,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,SONAL SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD.,SELL,502217,182.87,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,399903,184.83,-
08-JAN-2008,MANAKSIA,Manaksia Limited,YOKE SECURITIES LIMITED,SELL,351452,174.73,-
08-JAN-2008,OMNITECH,Omnitech Infosolutions Li,V AND U CAPLEASE PVT LTD,SELL,84416,210.04,-
08-JAN-2008,PIONEEREMB,Pioneer Embroideries Limi,ADMIX VINIMAY PVT LTD,SELL,100000,276.00,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,CHANDER PARKASH GUPTA,SELL,335315,111.25,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,SHRI BRIJ SECURITIES PVT.LTD.,SELL,180219,110.54,-
08-JAN-2008,SAKHTISUG,Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,251805,110.60,-
08-JAN-2008,TECHNOELEC,Techno Ele. & Eng. Co Ltd,J P FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD,SELL,1940000,300.14,-

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch

8/1/2008 505216 ALFRED HERBE DHRMESH R DESAI B 6027 534.60
8/1/2008 505216 ALFRED HERBE DHRMESH R DESAI S 6432 537.10
8/1/2008 531247 ALPHA HI-TEC MAGUNTA RAGHAV B 100000 9.30
8/1/2008 532910 ANIL PRODUCT KABUL CHAWLA B 100225 530.24
8/1/2008 532910 ANIL PRODUCT NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 41073 539.37
8/1/2008 512642 ARTILL BIO-I SARITA G YADAV S 16430 8.47
8/1/2008 531823 ARVIN REMEDI JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 7737123 6.48
8/1/2008 531823 ARVIN REMEDI NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 1320539 6.62
8/1/2008 531823 ARVIN REMEDI JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 9151136 6.50
8/1/2008 511750 ASCENT EXIM VIMAWALA INVESTMENT S 15000 10.60
8/1/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC SHETH ENTERPRISES PVT LTD S 20300 76.02
8/1/2008 507944 BAJAJ STEEL NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 17418 233.74
8/1/2008 531591 BAMPSL SECUR JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 602094 3.78
8/1/2008 500051 BHAGWAT GASE JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 114478 37.19
8/1/2008 524663 BHARAT IMUNO CHETAN K MEHTA S 92660 72.47
8/1/2008 512332 BIRLA CAP AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT. LTD. B 80792 24.27
8/1/2008 512332 BIRLA CAP PRADEEP BHAT B 75000 24.60
8/1/2008 512332 BIRLA CAP BIRLA BOMBAY PVT LTD S 500000 24.60
8/1/2008 531936 BLUE CHI IND JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 776479 5.41
8/1/2008 531936 BLUE CHI IND JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 743184 5.42
8/1/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL BASMATI SECURITIES PVT LTD B 245000 16.16
8/1/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL OUDH FINANCE INVESTMENT LTD B 300000 16.16
8/1/2008 530789 CEEJAY FINAN EESSEMM FINCAP LTD B 27000 25.47
8/1/2008 505923 CEEKAY DIAKI SHILPA KETAN SHAH S 50000 152.00
8/1/2008 531327 CHARMS INDS MAGUNTA RAGHAV B 43366 6.52
8/1/2008 503673 CMM BROADCAS NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 135668 11.34
8/1/2008 522231 CONART ENGIN VISHAL AGARWAL B 25727 59.11
8/1/2008 522231 CONART ENGIN VISHAL AGARWAL S 25727 58.91
8/1/2008 531067 CONTINEN CRE MAGUNTA RAGHAV B 100000 11.26
8/1/2008 531067 CONTINEN CRE KETAN CHALISHAZAR S 208221 10.95
8/1/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 380435 17.77
8/1/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 477938 17.77
8/1/2008 500117 DCW LTD JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 1065512 46.14
8/1/2008 500117 DCW LTD JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 1337787 47.54
8/1/2008 532180 DHANLAK BANK TRADING A C B 400000 143.25
8/1/2008 517973 DMC INTER IFL PROMOTERS LIMITED S 40768 41.03
8/1/2008 505526 DOLAT INV LT JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 1714858 27.63
8/1/2008 505526 DOLAT INV LT JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 1892729 27.71
8/1/2008 531367 DOLLEX INDUT AMIT KUMAR AGRAWAL B 75607 99.47
8/1/2008 531367 DOLLEX INDUT AMIT KUMAR AGRAWAL S 75607 99.36
8/1/2008 530835 ELTROL LTD RAJESHKUMAR MANGILAL BAID S 226480 2.39
8/1/2008 507910 FIBERWB IN MAHALAXMI INVESTMENT B 95033 9.09
8/1/2008 523277 G V FILMS LT JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 3492323 15.55
8/1/2008 532715 GITANJALI GE MORGAN STANLEY MAU CO LTD B 367288 434.53
8/1/2008 532139 GTECH INFOTR MOSS TRADERS PVT LTD S 2400000 1.38
8/1/2008 524184 GULSHA SUG C PRISM IMPEX PVT LTD B 75000 69.79
8/1/2008 512604 HARIA EXPO L JINESH MATALIA S 39283 14.23
8/1/2008 500183 HIM FUTR COM JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 3587976 59.04
8/1/2008 500183 HIM FUTR COM JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 4377787 59.34
8/1/2008 530719 IKF FINANC L VINAY KUMAR B 95000 23.49
8/1/2008 530719 IKF FINANC L MERCY CYRIAC S 38200 23.50
8/1/2008 524164 IOL CHEM PH SWEETY INVESTMENT S 100000 194.90
8/1/2008 532479 ISMT LTD INDIN SEAMLESS ENTERPRISES LTD B 1450000 123.00
8/1/2008 532479 ISMT LTD KLAPA INVESTMENTS PVT LTD S 1450000 123.00
8/1/2008 500223 JCT LTD JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 2704871 20.40
8/1/2008 500223 JCT LTD JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 4686389 20.11
8/1/2008 530405 JINDAL CAP. APEX SECURITIES B 75000 82.26
8/1/2008 530405 JINDAL CAP. NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 16492 79.95
8/1/2008 530405 JINDAL CAP. JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 127857 82.13
8/1/2008 530405 JINDAL CAP. APEX SECURITIES S 75000 82.35
8/1/2008 530405 JINDAL CAP. NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 29706 82.05
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8/1/2008 531115 JYOTI COSM E S S H REHMAN B 200000 4.48
8/1/2008 532367 KANIKA INFOT PRIYA MAHAVIR SHAH B 391924 2.45
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8/1/2008 517569 KEI INDUSTRI JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 329486 133.33
8/1/2008 532758 KEW INDUSTR SPJSTOCK B 137345 59.25
8/1/2008 532758 KEW INDUSTR SPJSTOCK S 106845 60.16
8/1/2008 532092 KIRTI FINVES N C JAIN B 476406 2.03
8/1/2008 532092 KIRTI FINVES CHETAN POPATLAL SALLA B 500000 2.03
8/1/2008 532092 KIRTI FINVES MEGAPODE VYAPAAR PVT LTD S 496160 2.03
8/1/2008 532092 KIRTI FINVES N C JAIN S 476406 2.02
8/1/2008 505523 MAH IND LEAS PARI STOCK TRADING PVT. LTD. B 47731 51.27
8/1/2008 505523 MAH IND LEAS PARI STOCK TRADING PVT. LTD. S 52781 51.95
8/1/2008 505523 MAH IND LEAS RAJENDRABAHI N PATEL S 41000 51.24
8/1/2008 501209 MAST MEDI SY MAVI INVESTMENT FUND LTD B 62166 74.99
8/1/2008 511672 MITTAL SEC. QASIM ELYAS SAKRIWALA S 29000 14.44
8/1/2008 511672 MITTAL SEC. ARCHANA ARUNKUMAR UPADHYAY S 29300 14.44
8/1/2008 532407 MOSCHIP SEMI LATIN MANHARLAL SEC PVT LTD S 248628 52.30
8/1/2008 530377 NILA INFRAST JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 943437 5.81
8/1/2008 530377 NILA INFRAST JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 785000 6.00
8/1/2008 524764 NUTRAPLUS PR ARVIND KANJI CHHEDA B 25000 21.64
8/1/2008 524764 NUTRAPLUS PR LATIN MANHARLAL SEC PVT LTD B 33954 22.33
8/1/2008 532086 OCEAN INFRST DILIP V VANIGOTA B 95799 14.61
8/1/2008 526415 OK PLAY INDI MANOJ JAIN HUF B 750000 129.97
8/1/2008 526415 OK PLAY INDI JITENDRA MEHTA B 110000 129.98
8/1/2008 526747 P G FOILS LT VIJAY KUMAR AGARWAL S 41000 123.02
8/1/2008 521080 PASARI SPIN SPJSTOCK B 201143 22.93
8/1/2008 521080 PASARI SPIN SPJSTOCK S 201453 22.93
8/1/2008 521080 PASARI SPIN PASARI EXPORT LTD S 75000 22.50
8/1/2008 506022 PRAKASH IND. MORGAN STANLEY MAURITIOUS CO LTD B 1670000 329.99
8/1/2008 530951 RAM INFORMAI ARVIND SHYAMSHABD OJHA S 57000 23.11
8/1/2008 531646 RFL INTERNAT HEMANT KUMAR GUPTA B 125000 2.31
8/1/2008 531646 RFL INTERNAT KETAN J KARANI HUF S 33450 2.31
8/1/2008 531646 RFL INTERNAT KASTURBEN J KARANI S 30000 2.31
8/1/2008 512499 SHALIMAR PRO NAJBUN NISHA B 200000 3.26
8/1/2008 531800 SHEETAL BIO DHANLAXMI LEASE FINANCE LTD S 2500000 2.39
8/1/2008 511607 SHLOKA INFO KESHAV SHARES AND STOCK LTD B 40000 38.25
8/1/2008 502455 SIRPUR PAP MANSUKH STOCK BROKERS LTD B 62078 141.86
8/1/2008 502455 SIRPUR PAP MANSUKH STOCK BROKERS LTD S 62078 143.22
8/1/2008 502180 SRI DIGV CEM RAJEN C SHETH B 1687553 41.51
8/1/2008 502180 SRI DIGV CEM RAJEN C SHETH S 1087032 41.20
8/1/2008 590037 STEEL EXCH NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 87592 191.07
8/1/2008 506003 SUDAL INDUST NIMMAGADDA SABITHA B 31700 28.30
8/1/2008 530419 SUMEDH FISCA DHIRAJ LOHIA B 41423 24.05
8/1/2008 500407 SWARAJ ENGIN SHAILAJA FINANCE LTD S 75000 348.43
8/1/2008 530585 SWASTIK INV H.H JAVERI S 15400 70.83
8/1/2008 530585 SWASTIK INV H.R. JAVERI S 24900 71.25
8/1/2008 531418 SYSTEL INFOT NARESH KESHAVLAL RAVAL S 175000 1.22
8/1/2008 531418 SYSTEL INFOT MANOJ H.MEHTA S 170102 1.22
8/1/2008 531418 SYSTEL INFOT SHARMISHTABEN M SHAH S 200000 1.22
8/1/2008 524719 TANU HEAL V R P FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD B 296191 12.00
8/1/2008 524719 TANU HEAL RAJKUMAR AMARLAL HASIJA S 91043 12.43
8/1/2008 505397 TECH ELE ENG PRUDENTIAL ICICI MF B 2002000 300.03
8/1/2008 501756 THANA ELE SU ANSUYABEN N SHETH B 25000 52.60
8/1/2008 501756 THANA ELE SU H.R.JAVERI S 19700 52.60
8/1/2008 501756 THANA ELE SU H.H.JAVERI S 15150 52.60
8/1/2008 590048 TYCHE PERIPH NIHARIKA K S 38000 116.40
8/1/2008 590048 TYCHE PERIPH HANUMANTHA RAO G S 76000 116.02
8/1/2008 532378 UNIVERSAL A MANISH GARODIA B 100000 7.31
8/1/2008 521046 VANASTH TEXT BRADY INVESTMENTS B 100500 19.03
8/1/2008 532917 VARUN INDS STANDARD SEC AND INVST INTER LTD B 110963 155.57
8/1/2008 532917 VARUN INDS STANDARD SEC AND INVST INTER LTD S 110963 155.43
8/1/2008 530151 VIJAY TEXTIL KAVERI SEED COMPANY LIMITED B 1311000 10.20
8/1/2008 530627 VIPUL DYE CH VIJAY BHANDARI S 22865 31.65
8/1/2008 508933 WELSPUN SYNE JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 1432182 17.22
8/1/2008 508933 WELSPUN SYNE JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 1581052 17.97
7/1/2008 532910 ANIL PRODUCT NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 50408 541.20
7/1/2008 532910 ANIL PRODUCT CHETAN MEHTA S 67602 543.03
7/1/2008 532910 ANIL PRODUCT NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 38505 540.24
7/1/2008 531223 ANJANI SYNTH ASHA B AGRAWAL B 50000 148.25
7/1/2008 512642 ARTILL BIO-I MADHUKAR TUKARAM HUBALE S 19110 8.33
7/1/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC KUSHAL SOFTWARE LTD B 7825 83.00
7/1/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC KUSHAL SOFTWARE LTD S 7825 83.01
7/1/2008 532931 BURNPUR OPG SECURITIES PVT LTD B 371938 50.62
7/1/2008 532931 BURNPUR OPG SECURITIES PVT LTD S 371938 50.56
7/1/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 196911 17.11
7/1/2008 531367 DOLLEX INDUT BHAVESH P PABARI B 71356 94.82
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7/1/2008 526227 FILATE INDIA BOULDER ESTATES S 100000 60.00
7/1/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV PREM MOHANLAL PARIKH B 15809 31.22
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7/1/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV BHAVESH PRAKASH PABARI B 15000 30.96
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7/1/2008 500500 HIND MOT LTD MATRIX EQUITRADE PVT LTD B 1469128 89.99
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7/1/2008 511682 IFL PRMOTER VIMAL DASWANI S 19000 39.39
7/1/2008 530405 JINDAL CAP. NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 25001 78.45
7/1/2008 505523 MAH IND LEAS PARI STOCK TRADING PVT. LTD. B 45873 49.30
7/1/2008 505523 MAH IND LEAS PARI STOCK TRADING PVT. LTD. S 74980 49.50
7/1/2008 517467 MARSON LTD MANORAMA SURESH PANCHOLI S 150000 15.49
7/1/2008 526747 P G FOILS LT BABULAL BHURMAL JAIN B 46000 121.88
7/1/2008 517417 PATEL AIRTEM N C JAIN B 25378 140.03
7/1/2008 517417 PATEL AIRTEM SVS SECURITIES PVT LTD S 43585 138.87
7/1/2008 507315 SAKTH SUGAL TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD B 222591 103.40
7/1/2008 507315 SAKTH SUGAL TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD S 225591 103.56
7/1/2008 519566 SIMRAN FARMS PISTA DEVI S 25000 17.75
7/1/2008 519566 SIMRAN FARMS GYAN KUNWAR BHANDARI S 25000 17.75
7/1/2008 506854 TANFAC INDUS DAKSHA KUMARI JAIN S 63883 75.90
7/1/2008 505930 VISHAL MELL. LALIT SINGHAL B 59800 102.97
4/1/2008 531518 ADARS DERIVA SVS SECURITIES PVT LTD B 83512 33.40
4/1/2008 531518 ADARS DERIVA NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 32863 33.39
4/1/2008 531518 ADARS DERIVA SVS SECURITIES PVT LTD S 83510 33.35
4/1/2008 531518 ADARS DERIVA NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 54331 33.35
4/1/2008 523537 APM INDUSTRI NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 41015 57.34
4/1/2008 523537 APM INDUSTRI NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 27515 57.34
4/1/2008 532931 BURNPUR NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 339693 52.17
4/1/2008 532931 BURNPUR NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 333694 51.89
4/1/2008 500083 CENTURY EXT SHETH BROTHERS S 61137 17.37
4/1/2008 590037 STEEL EXCH NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 134272 173.24
4/1/2008 590037 STEEL EXCH NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD S 93307 173.24
4/1/2008 500427 UNIFLEX CABE NAMAN SEC AND FIN PVT LTD B 75898 64.92
1/1/2008 526227 FILATE INDIA ANIL GUPTA B 100000 60.00
8/1/2007 503673 CMM BROADCAS RACHNA KIRTI DOSHI B 100000 11.35
1/1/1900 531591 BAMPSL SECUR JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 722094 3.67

Garware Wallropes

Garware Wallropes

HDIL, Panacea Biotec, Karuturi Networks

Cmp: Rs 1,210
Target Price: Rs 2,076

ICICI Securities has initiated coverage on the Mumbai-based real estate player, HDIL, with a ‘strong’ buy. The recommendation is based on the company’s ‘immense potential’ based on its strong project pipeline and imminent upsides from the GVK Slum Rehabilitation Scheme (SRS) and upcoming special economic zones (SEZs). HDIL has presence across all key segments — residential, commercial, retail, SEZs and particularly SRS. Presence in the prime Mumbai property market adds to its advantage. HDIL has development pipeline of approximately 120 million sq ft (excluding GVK SRS and SEZs). “HDIL is trading at a significant 45% discount to our NAV estimate of Rs 444 billion (Rs 44,400) or Rs 2,076 per share. Based on our financial year (FY) 2008 expected (E), FY09E and FY10E EPS estimate of Rs 39.4, Rs 67.6 and Rs 92.2, it trades at a price-to-earning multiple of 28.9, 16.9 and 12.4 times, respectively. We expect revenue and earnings CAGR of 56% and 53% respectively over the next three years,” the brokerage said in a note to clients. Over the next three years, profit margins are expected to remain high in the range of 43-47%, as it is using completion method of accounting, which leads to higher margins getting booked in the coming years on the projects currently under execution.

Exide Industries
Cmp: Rs 75
Target price: NA

CLSA is positive on Exide Industries, as it feels the company has strong growth potential in the retail market. The French broking house says that the rights issue will ensure sufficient funds for its growth plan and investments in the insurance venture without any increase in debt. It feels that acquisition of a lead smelter in Maharashtra will help in key sourcing of raw material in the medium term. Describing it as its top picks in the mid-cap universe, it has valued Exide’s stake in ING Vysya Life at Rs 16 per share, based on FY09 estimates and net of this, the stock is trading at 16.5 times FY 2009 . “With pick up in retail sales, Exide’s volume growth will remain strong for the next two years. In FY07, while sales grew 35%, volume growth was 20%. Revenue growth is ahead of volume growth due to higher lead prices,” the brokerage said in a note. Exide has submarine battery orders till March 2009 and this would enable it to maintain its margins even in an environment of high lead prices. Exide is one of the five companies globally with capability to make batteries for both Russian and German submarines. It, however, maintains that a sharp increase in lead price remains the key risk for the company.

Karuturi Networks
CMP: Rs 431
Target price: NA

Macquarie Research has termed Karuturi Networks as an ‘emerging leader’ based on the potential for huge international demand for fresh cut flowers. It feels that the growth of an organised retail industry in India (which is currently in a nascent stage of development) may lead to strong growth potential for cut-rose producers.

The stock is currently trading at 18 times trailing 12 months EPS based on historical earnings. The global supply-demand mismatch is considered to be positive for rose producers. Rise in per capita income and strong demand during festivals and Valentine’s Day are fuelling huge flower consumption in India. “The Indian floriculture sector is estimated to expand 40% each year (significantly higher than the global average) and almost 85% of the demand is estimated to be from roses,” said the brokerage in its note to clients. On the downside, it says that any major epidemic or failure of monsoons may affect production of roses. Also an international ban on imports from India/Ethiopia due to the outbreak of an epidemic or political instability could affect growth in revenue.

Panacea Biotech
CMP: Rs 422
Target price: Rs 513

Merrill Lynch says investors should ‘buy’ the stock as Panacea’s increased revenue visibility due to recent doubling of vaccine capacity (to 2 million doses) will drive growth. According to the brokerage, the stock is at a significant 25-30% discount to the sector average and valuations are attractive at 12 times FY09E and 9.5 times FY10E EPS. It says that the company has got WHOnod for two vaccines and may get pentavalent approval shortly. The combined demand of all combination pediatric vaccines worldwide was $600 million in 2005 and is estimated to grow up to $1.6 billion by 2012.

Gold at all time high

Gold prices close at $880 per ounce as commodities rally

Precious metals ended considerably higher today, Tuesday, 08 January, 2008. Gold prices struck a new all time record as oil prices increased and dollar traded mixed against its rivals. Increasing tensions between US and Iran added to the rally. Silver prices too gained.

Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. currency. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, suffers from dollar strength. Gold gained 31% in FY 2007 while oil jumped 57% and the dollar fell 9.5% against the euro.

Comex Gold for February delivery today rose $18.30 (2.1%) to close at $880.3 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. During intraday trading prices rose as high as $883.8/ounce. Last week, gold prices gained $23/ounce (2.7%). This year, prices have gained 5.1% till date.

Prices had touched $872 during intraday trading on 3 January, 2008 and finally had closed at $869.3/ounce. That closing price was the highest price after a record $873 that gold hit on 21 January, 1980.

Comex Silver futures for March delivery today rose 52.5 cents (3.4%) to $15.815 an ounce. Prices touched 26 year high on 7 November, 2007, after reaching $16.275. Silver has gained 5.9% in 2008. The metal had climbed 15.5% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years.

Gold witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

In the currency market today, the dollar was mixed, as investors weighed weak home-sales data against remarks from a U.S. Federal Reserve official suggesting he wouldn't support a deeper cut to interest rates. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other currencies, edged down 0.1% to 76.095.

In the energy market today crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel in New York on speculation that a government report will show U.S. inventories fell for an eighth week and as investors purchased commodities as an inflation hedge.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. Rising crude increases inflationary pressures and vice versa. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

Gold had climbed 31% in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record.

The Fed reduced federal funds rate three times in FY 2007. The current interest rate stands at 4.5%. The Fed also lowered its discount rate twice, the interest it charges on direct loans it makes to banks, and currently it stands at 4.75%. With these interest rate cuts, dollar has been tumbling down. Market anticipates that there will be more rate cut in the coming year.

Gold is expected to rally to all-time highs in the first quarter in FY 2008 as higher oil prices and a weaker dollar will continue to boost demand. Market expects another phase o interest rate cut in the end of the month. But gold is slated to average around $800/ounce in FY 2008 as against $696/ounce in FY 2007.

Crude price firms up a bit

After four sessions of fall, crude manages to gain more than a dollar

Crude prices rose today after slipping for four sessions. Prices rose today as traders speculated that tomorrow’s inventory report will show another drop in crude inventories making it for the eighth consecutive drop in inventories. Crude prices rose more than $1 on Tuesday, 08 January, 2008.

Crude had ended FY 2007 substantially higher by $35 or 57%. It was crude’s biggest yearly gain in five years.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for February delivery closed at $96.33/barrel (higher by $1.24/barrel or 1.33%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract hit an intraday high of $97.54. Prices are 72% higher on a yearly basis. Last week, crude prices gained $2.

In the currency market today, the dollar ended mixed. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other currencies, edged down 0.1% to 76.095.

Today EIA said that it expects crude oil prices to average $94 per barrel in January. The Western Texas Intermediate crude oil, the underlying crude for Nymex crude-oil futures, is expected to average about $87 per barrel in 2008 and $82 in 2009. WTI prices averaged $72 per barrel in 2007.

Brent crude oil for February settlement today fell $1.15 (1.2%) to $95.54 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The London benchmark rose 54% in FY 2007, the most since 1999 when prices more than doubled.

Natural gas consumption to rise 0.6% in FY 2008

Natural gas futures in New York rose, following crude and heating oil, on speculation stockpiles declined last week. Gas for February delivery rose 8.8 cents (1%) to settle at $7.967 per million British thermal units. Gas has gained 25% in the past one year.

As per EIA, consumption of natural gas surged 6% in 2007 as against a decline of 1.6% in the previous year. In FY 2008 and FY 2009, consumption is forecast to rise 0.6% and 1% respectively.

Against this backdrop, February reformulated gasoline rose 4.41 cents to $2.4739 a gallon. February heating oil, which competes with gas in some major markets, gained 4.28 cents (1.7%) to $2.6363 a gallon.

As per National Weather Service, above average temperature will dominate most part of US for the next two weeks. This is the time of peak demand for gasoline and heating oil.

Members of the OPEC left production targets unchanged at the 5 December meeting in Abu Dhabi. The group, which produces 40% of the world's oil, will review output at a 1 February, 2008 meeting in Vienna.

Nifty January 2008 futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment increases

Nifty January 2008 futures were at 6267.10, at discount of 20.75 points as compared to spot closing of 6287.85.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 84,355.67 crore, which was higher than Rs 70,004.57 crore on Monday, 7 January 2008.

Reliance Natural Resources January 2008 futures were near spot price at 245, compared to the spot closing of 244.35.

Reliance Petroleum January 2008 futures were close to the spot price, at 246, compared to the spot closing of 246.80.

Reliance Communications January 2008 futures were at premium, at 810.60, compared to the spot closing of 804.40.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 8.75 points or 0.14% at 6287.85.

Gujarat Gas Company

We recommend a buy in Gujarat Gas Company at current market price. Form the weekly chart of Gujarat Gas; we note that it has been on steady long-term uptrend form July 2006 low of Rs 184 levels. From the daily chart it is clear that the stock has been on an intermediate term uptrend from August 2007 trough of Rs 267. However, the stock met with a resistance at Rs 370 in late November 2007. Following a minor correction, the stock is once again testing this resistance level. The stock is trading well above the 21-day and 50-day moving average lines. The weekly momentum indicator is featuring in the bullish region. The daily moving average convergence divergence lines are progressively rising in the positive territory. On the downside, the immediate support for the stock is at Rs 330 and the next support is at Rs 300 levels. Considering the fact that the intermediate term uptrend is currently intact, we expect the stock to resume its long-term uptrend and rally up to Rs 400 level in the short-term. The short-term investors can buy the stock while keeping the stop-loss at Rs 330 level.

Via BL

Q3FY08 IT Sector Earnings Preview

Q3FY08 IT Sector Earnings Preview