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Monday, March 24, 2008

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - March 24 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Scrip Name Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
24/3/2008 517356 ACI INFOCOM REENA P GOPANI B 69000 4.49
24/3/2008 517356 ACI INFOCOM ALOK GUPTA S 67020 4.50
24/3/2008 511706 ACTION FIN ALKA ASHOK KARIA B 45381 35.72
24/3/2008 520077 AMTEK AUTO L LB INDIA HOLDINGS CAYMAN II LTD S 1000000 240.00
24/3/2008 516064 AROW COAT PR SHYAM STAR GEMS LTD B 40594 21.02
24/3/2008 516064 AROW COAT PR SHAILESH BABULAL SHAH S 39621 21.05
24/3/2008 532845 BHAGWATI BAN GOPAL TRADERS S 206000 60.00
24/3/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND SONATA INVESTMENTS LIMITED B 244442 466.51
24/3/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND VONTOBEL FUND FAR EAST EQUITY 23 B 260000 546.71
24/3/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND SONATA INVESTMENTS LIMITED S 244442 550.00
24/3/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND GKK CAPITAL MARKETS PVT L S 116000 459.19
24/3/2008 507833 COMPUTER POI SURENDRA SINGH BEN B 61395 2.54
24/3/2008 507833 COMPUTER POI SHANTI KUMAR SURAN S 85478 2.54
24/3/2008 530067 CONSOL. SEC. KULBHUSHAN SINGH NARULA B 34160 130.00
24/3/2008 530067 CONSOL. SEC. SONIA GULATI S 30000 130.00
24/3/2008 524388 CRAZY INFOTE ALKA DAGA B 41000 23.30
24/3/2008 524388 CRAZY INFOTE MANOJ DAGA S 41000 23.30
24/3/2008 531989 DECCAN POLYP NAIMISH J MEHTA HUF B 11774 8.05
24/3/2008 531989 DECCAN POLYP RAJASHREE N. MEHTA S 11774 8.05
24/3/2008 520022 DEN SO INDIA DHIREN S. SHAH HUF B 100000 68.00
24/3/2008 526504 DOLPH MED SE SAROJINI FIN AND INV P LTD B 110000 4.35
24/3/2008 526783 DR AGARW EYE BRIGHTMOON SUPPLY PVT LTD B 48000 38.99
24/3/2008 526783 DR AGARW EYE HANS PLAZA TRACON PVT LTD S 48000 39.00
24/3/2008 530389 GEEFCEE FINA SKM TRAVELS PRIVATE LIMITED B 75619 146.05
24/3/2008 532951 GSS AMERICA B K SHAH AND CO B 74701 637.76
24/3/2008 532951 GSS AMERICA B K SHAH AND CO S 74701 639.14
24/3/2008 516078 JUMBO BAG LT PRAFUL BABULAL SHAH S 45702 40.15
24/3/2008 516078 JUMBO BAG LT JAYSHREE T. PANCHAMIYA S 100000 39.00
24/3/2008 526538 MAXIMAA SYSE CRESENT FINSTOCK PVT LTD B 100000 4.75
24/3/2008 512529 P I DRUGS FRAXIS LIFE SCIENCES PVT LTD B 53058 39.93
24/3/2008 523523 RAINBOW PAPE ISHWAR DAYAL MITTAL B 40455 126.71
24/3/2008 502587 RAMA PUL PAP KRISHNAGOPAL M CHANDAK B 108500 23.89
24/3/2008 502587 RAMA PUL PAP RUCHI AGROTECH P LTD B 40000 24.45
24/3/2008 531898 SANGUINE MD SANDEEP GHATE B 114999 15.25
24/3/2008 531898 SANGUINE MD SECUREX CAPITAL MARKET LTD S 114999 15.25
24/3/2008 530177 SPS INTERNAT SATYA PRAKASH MITTAL HUF B 27001 2.98
24/3/2008 530177 SPS INTERNAT BHANWAR LAL LAKHOTIA S 30370 3.06
24/3/2008 531866 SUBHKAM CAP ANSU COMMERCIAL PVT LTD B 90000 484.16
24/3/2008 531703 TRIBHVAN HSG JAYSHREE SHANKAR BHOSLE B 75000 22.10
24/3/2008 504605 UNIABEX AL P MONEYBEE COMMODITIES PVT LTD S 24000 70.50
24/3/2008 500427 UNIFLEX CABE PRISM IMPEX PVT LTD S 90000 39.75
24/3/2008 530477 VIKRAM THERM PRATYUSH MITTAL B 14013 19.10

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - March 24 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
24-MAR-2008,CAROLINFO,Carol Info Services Limit,HARSIDDH SPECIFIC FAMILY TRUST,BUY,190000,40.75,-
24-MAR-2008,GOLDTECH,Goldstone Tech Ltd.,CASPIAN PROJECTS PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,100000,196.01,-
24-MAR-2008,GSSAMERICA,GSS America Infotech Limi,B K SHAH AND CO,BUY,72918,637.76,-
24-MAR-2008,KOHINOOR,Kohinoor Foods Limited,STUPENDORS TRADERS PVT LTD,BUY,163110,84.60,-
24-MAR-2008,MORARJETEX,Morarjee Textiles Limited,Bharat Patel,BUY,200000,25.25,-
24-MAR-2008,PVR,PVR Limited,ANMOL FINPRO PVT LTD,BUY,125000,167.00,-
24-MAR-2008,SKUMARSYNF,S. Kumars Nationwide Ltd,MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED,BUY,1050000,87.68,-
24-MAR-2008,TULSI,Tulsi Extrusions Limited,GOPAL TRADERS,BUY,88922,78.03,-
24-MAR-2008,TVSSRICHAK,TVS Srichakra Limited,RUCHIT B. PATEL,BUY,48500,80.10,-
24-MAR-2008,AMTEKINDIA,Amtek India Limited,ANANT RAJ AGENCIES (P) LTD.,SELL,575130,80.00,-
24-MAR-2008,CAROLINFO,Carol Info Services Limit,Minal Patel,SELL,190000,40.75,-
24-MAR-2008,GODREJCP,Godrej Cons Products Ltd,FID FDS MAURITIUS LTD,SELL,3676955,130.00,-
24-MAR-2008,GSSAMERICA,GSS America Infotech Limi,B K SHAH AND CO,SELL,72912,640.07,-
24-MAR-2008,KARURVYSYA,Karur Vysya Bank Ltd,GVL INVESTMENTS PVT LTD,SELL,350000,338.65,-
24-MAR-2008,KOHINOOR,Kohinoor Foods Limited,EVERSIGHT TRADECOMM PVT LTD,SELL,163110,84.60,-
24-MAR-2008,MORARJETEX,Morarjee Textiles Limited,RUCHIT B. PATEL,SELL,200000,25.25,-
24-MAR-2008,PVR,PVR Limited,FE SECURITIES PVT LTD,SELL,125000,167.00,-
24-MAR-2008,TULSI,Tulsi Extrusions Limited,GOPAL TRADERS,SELL,12500,77.99,-
24-MAR-2008,TVSSRICHAK,TVS Srichakra Limited,Minal Patel,SELL,49000,80.12,-

Market Close: Brave show by index But broader markets bleeds..

After a long holiday mood Indian indices had a volatile day with heavyweights managing to close in positive but the midcap and smallcap index close in red. Buying was seen only in selective large-cap and banking stocks. Realty counter was the worst hit for the day after Bombay high court declared some of the developing land as the forest land. The metal stocks tumbled over 4% each. Banking space was in focus but in the mean while Markets slipped from the day's high and traded in red after heavy selling pressure intensified in the mid session. Inflation on friday came out high at 5.92%. Globally most of the Asians markets were closed which kept market in range session. Positive cues from the US front keep the market in an affirmative mood. Investors piped orders into final hour of trading after renewed buying activity seen at the lower levels. Finally markets managed to close higher.

Sensex ended up by 295 points at 15289.4. It was helped by gains in HDFC (2384.05,+8 percent), Wipro (398.75,+6 percent), HDFC Bk (1337.45,+5 percent), ICICI Bk (804.55,+5 percent) and Dr Reddys (564.9,+4 percent). Restricting the gains were Bajaj Auto (591.5,-8 percent), TISCO (592.45,-7 percent), Rel Energy (1150.9,-5 percent), Maruti (811.7,-1 percent) and Ranbaxy (446.25,-1 percent).
Aries Agro (AAL) is a producer and supplier of quality plant nutrition solutions, opened a new manufacturing unit for secondary and micro nutrients as well as water soluble major fertilizers. The company invested Rs. 2.45 Cr (excluding land cost) into the new plant, which inaugurated today and will serve over 3 million farmers across the different states in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Orissa. The new manufacturing facility is located at Andhra Pradesh which will be the largest with state-of-the-art unit of the company. It is also the largest manufacturing unit in India for micronutrients, mainly dedicated for manufacturing two flagship brands, namely, `Aries Agromin Max` and `Aries Chelamin`. Micronutrients play a very important role in key metabolic events such as chlorophyll synthesis and photosynthesis.

Amtek Auto has joined hands with a leading North American wagon supplier American Rail Car Industries to set up a capacity to produce 5,000 wagons. Plant would get operational in June 09 initially will start producing 2000 freight wagons following the next 2-3 years the plant would run at its optimum capacity of 5,000 wagons. Recently in the Union Budget the Railways had announced plans to procure 20,000 wagons this year. The two major players Titagarh Wagons and Texmaco individually have the capability to produce around 1,800-2,000 wagons. The demand and supply scenario looks to be positive for the wagon players. Amtek is well diversified player from its component business for automobiles to equipment for railways, surface transport and aero space.

Dabur Pharma was in spotlight to end the day up by 16% after the company reported that it has received a approval to sell the irinotecan hydrochloride injection in Italy and Denmark. Irinotecan hydrochloride injection is the generic version of Pfizer's Camptosar. There was a block deal of 38 lakh Dabur Pharma shares on the Indian bourses.

Technically Speaking: Overall market traded well at support levels. Sensex touched intraday high of 15351 and low of 15056. Overall market turnover stood at Rs 4663 Cr. Market breadth was in favor of Decliners, where the Advances stood at 559, Declines stood at 2130. Sensex faces resistance at 15500 which will be a crucial level considering that expiry is just 3days. If markets stabilise above 15500 we might see more up move upto 16100. A failure to cross 15500 will bring the Sensex back to 14800 levels.

Post Market Commentary - March 24 2008

The Indian market made a huge turnaround towards the final trading hours of the session to closed with handsome gains on the back of selective buying across the sectoral indices. Though the domestic market opened with a bang tracking the favoring cues from he global markets but lost the momentum towards the mid session as the heavy profit booking prevailed. But the market gathered the momentum towards the final hours to close with good gains. However, the Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks were out of favor as heavy selling was seen from these baskets. From the sectoral front, the metal and realty stocks were the most hit as they faced heavy selling pressures while the Banking stocks remained the centre of attraction as the investors showed more buying interest from these counters.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 294.57 points at 15,289.40 and NSE Nifty closed up by 35.9 points 4609.85. The Mid Caps and Small Caps closed lower by 158.57 points and 272.08 points at 5,805.53 and 6,950.12 respectively.

The market breadth remained weak as 2149 stocks closed in red as against 535 stocks that closed in green.

From the Sensex pack, Tata Steel 7.04%, Reliance Energy 4.61% and DLF 4% reported as the top loser while HDFC 7.73%, Wipro 5.88% and HDFC bank 5.31% reported as the top gainers.

The Bankex index surged 249.09 points at 7,744.35. Gainers are PNB 5.58%, HDFC bank 5.31%, ICICI bank 4.98%, Yes bank 4.08%, Cent BOP 4.46%, BOI 2.83%, SBI 2.67% and IOB 1.21%.

The IT index closed up by 52.33 points at 3,421.96 as HCL Tech 7.45%, Wipro 5.88%, TCS 1.66%, Infosys 1.45% and Aptech 0.90% closed in green.

The Capital Goods index closed higher by 130.19 points at 13,225.91. Major gainers are L&T 3.46%, BHEL 1.25%, Elecon Eng 0.40%, Jyoti Structures 0.29% and ABB 0.13%.

The Metal index declined by 710.94 points to close at 12,787.61. Scrips that fell are Gujrat NRE 16.95%, JSW Steel 11.98%, Welspun Guj 7.71%, Tata Steel 7.04%, Bhushan Steel 5.86%, Jindal Steel 5.45% and Sesa Goa 4.40%.

The BSE Realty index closed lower by 281.52 points at 6,806.18. Major losers are Purvankara 16.20%, Parsvnath 9.69%, Akruti City 7.49%, Unitech 5.24%, Indbul Real 4.57% and DLF 4%.

The Oil and Gas index closed marginally up by 13.35 points at 9,730.91 as BPCL 4.12%, Reliance Inds 1.93%, HPCL 1.32% and ONGC 0.99% closed higher.

Indices end on a firm note

Buoyed by a sharp recovery in Asian indices and an overnight gains in the US market, the domestic indices also showed strong optimism after sliding sharply in the last week’s trades. At the opening bell today, the Sensex resumed firm above the 15,000 mark with gains of 99 points at 15,094. After rallying past the 15,100 level in the early trades, the market moved in the range 15,100-15,150 on steady buying movement. The market, however, gained momentum in the late trades on renewed buying in select frontline stocks and propelled the index to an intra-day high of 15,351. The Sensex finally ended the session with gains of 295 points at 15,289, while the Nifty rose 36 points to close at 4,610.

The market breadth ended in negative. Of the 2,717 stocks traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 2,147 stocks declined, 536 stocks advanced and 34 stocks ended unchanged. Barring the BSE Metal, Reality, Consumer Durables and the BSE power index, other sectoral indices ended at higher levels. The BSE Bankex index rose 3.32%, the BSE FMCG index added 1.76%, the BSE IT index was up 1.55% and the BSE Teck index was up 1.19%.

Among the strong gainers in index heavyweights, HDFC soared 7.73% at Rs2,384, Wipro scaled up 5.88% at Rs398.75, HDFC Bank advanced 5.31% at Rs1,337.45, ICICI Bank added 4.98% at Rs804.55, Hidustan Uniliver jumped by 4.31% at Rs235, and ACC moved up 3.76% at Rs805.15. L&T at Rs2937, Bharti Airtel at Rs800.50, SBI at Rs1,645.65, RIL at Rs2,200.80, ITC at Rs190.90 and Tata motors at Rs662.35 gained over 1% each. Tisco, however, dropped 7.04% at Rs592.45. While Reliance Energy declined 4.61% at Rs1,150.90, DLF was down a 4% at Rs598.10. Jaiprakash Associates, Maruti, Ranbaxy, Hindalco and NTPC ended with marginal losses.

Bankex stocks appreciated on sharp buying support. PNB spurted 5.58% at Rs485.45, HDFC Bank flared up 5.31% at Rs1,337.45, Centurion Bank of Punjab climbed 4.46% at Rs42.15 and Yes bank gained 4.08% at Rs142.75. Among other gainers Bank of India Union Bank, SBI, Kotak Bank, IOB, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank were up over 1% each.

Artheon Finance at Rs9.26, Shree Global Tradefin at Rs43, Good Luck Steel Tubes at Rs258.80, KLG Capital Services at Rs70.90 and JPT Services at Rs30.10 touched new intra-highs on the BSE.

RNRL was the most actively traded counter on the BSE with trades of over 1.96 crore shares followed by Ispat Industries (1.06 crore shares), Essar Oil (0.86crore shares), RPL (0.86 crore shares) and IFCI (0.75 crore shares)

Sensex garners 295 points in volatile trade


Sensex garners 295 points in volatile trade

Blue chips edged higher in volatile trading session today. After an initial surge, the market had pared gains in afternoon trade. The S&P CNX Nifty, had in fact, slipped into the red. A strong rebound was witnessed in late trade. Positive cues from the global markets supported the domestic bourses which opened after a long weekend.

However, the market breadth was weak indicating that confidence is low among investors. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks slumped, which was clearly reflected in the poor market breadth. Banking and IT stocks were in demand. Metal and power stocks declined. 22 out of 30 stocks from the Sensex pack ended in green.

The market sentiment remained edgy on reports Monsoon Capital LLC, a $1.20 billion hedge fund firm run by Gautam Prakash, has been hit hard by a slump in Indian stocks this year. The news may trigger more redemptions from hedge funds with higher exposure to India, reports suggest.

Asian markets which opened before Indian market, were mostly in the green. European markets were closed on account of Easter holiday.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 294.57 points or 1.96% at 15,289.40. The index gained 356.48 points at the session’s high of 15,351.31, hit at the fag end of the trading session. Sensex rose 61.26 points at the day's low of 15,056.09 hit in the afternoon trade.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty rose 35.9 points or 0.78% at 4609.85.

The BSE Mid-cap index fell 2.66% at 5,805.53. The BSE small-cap index was down 3.77% at 6,950.12. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

As per provisional data, foreign funds bought shares worth a net Rs 376.13 crore today. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 253.27 crore.

The market breadth, which was negative in early trade, turned poor as the session progressed. On BSE, 535 stocks advanced, 2149 declined and 33 stocks were unchanged.

Concerns of marked-to-market losses for firms on their foreign exchange derivatives exposure, meltdown in global markets, lower-than-expected industrial production data for January 2008 and a surge in inflation created havoc on the bourses recently. Hike in short-term capital gains tax and alteration of tax treatment of the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) in Union Budget 2008-09 announced on 29 February 2008 had dented the sentiment earlier.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4663 crore today as against Rs 5,796.91 crore on Wednesday, 19 March 2008.

Nifty March 2008 futures were at 4642, at a premium of 32.15 points as compared to spot closing of 4609.85.

The NSE futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 42,610.26 crore, which was lower than Rs 46,365.04 crore on Wednesday, 19 March 2008.

India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.93% to Rs 2200.80.

India’s largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank rose 4.98% to Rs 804.55.

India’s largest engineering and construction firm by revenue Larsen & Toubro gained 3.46% to Rs 2937.20.

Among the other Sensex gainers were, Housing Development Finance Corporation (up 7.73% at Rs 2384.05), Wipro (up 5.88% at Rs 398.75), HDFC Bank (up 5.31% at Rs 1337.45), Hindustan Unilever (up 4.31% at Rs 235), and ACC (up 3.76% at 805.15).

Among the Sensex losers were, Tata Steel (down 7.04% at Rs 592.45), Reliance Energy (down 4.61% at Rs 1150.90), DLF (down 4% at Rs 598.10), Jaiprakash Associates (down 1.81% at Rs 200.30), Maruti Suzuki (down 1.34% at Rs 811.70), and Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 0.88% at Rs 446.25).

The BSE Bankex outperformed the Sensex, rising 3.32% to 7,744.35. Punjab National Bank (up 5.58% at Rs 485.45), Centurion Bank of Punjab (up 4.46% at Rs 42.15), Yes Bank (up 4.08% at Rs 142.75), Bank of India (up 2.83% at Rs 245.05) and State Bank of India (up 2.67% at Rs 1,645.65), gained.

The BSE IT index underperformed the Sensex, rising 1.55% to 3,421.96. HCL Technologies (up 7.45% at 274.05), TCS (up 1.66% at Rs 823.45), Infosys Technologies (up 1.45% at Rs 1,361.35), and Satyam Computer (up 0.29% at Rs 391.10), gained.

The BSE Metal index underperformed the Sensex, falling 5.27% to 12,787.61. Gujarat NRE Coke (down 16.95% at Rs 103.40), JSW Steel (down 11.98% at Rs 788.25), Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren (down 7.71% at Rs 294.30), Jindal Stainless (down 7.44% at Rs 133.15), Sesa Goa (down 4.40% at Rs 3,021.80), and Sterlite Industries (down 4.12% at Rs 680.25), slumped.

The BSE Realty index underperformed the Sensex, falling 3.97% to 6,806.18. Puravankara Projects (down 16.20% at Rs 171.45), Parsvnath Developers (down 9.69% at Rs 173.85), Omaxe (down 5.59% at Rs 182.35), Indiabulls Real Estate (down 4.57% at Rs 423), Mahindra Lifespace Developers (down 1.63% at Rs 377) and Sobha Developers (down 1.25% at Rs 597.05), fell.

Among the side counters, IOL Netcom (down 20% at Rs 155.65), Indusfila (down 20% at Rs 90.25), Orbit Corporation (down 20% at Rs 321.82), Brigade Enterprise (down 16.07% at Rs 154.30), Aban Offshore (down 16% at Rs 2,642.10), Bajaj Hindustan (down 10.85% at Rs 166.40), tumbled.

India's second biggest real estate developer by market capitalisation Unitech declined 5.24% to Rs 253.30, off session’s high of Rs 279.70. Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank are reportedly set to make a combined investment of $500 million in Unitech's special purpose vehicle formed to execute two commercial projects in Mumbai.

Refrigerant gases maker Gujarat Fluorochemicals jumped 3.35% to Rs 185 after its board approved the proposal to buyback equity at a ceiling price of Rs 300 per share.

Drug maker Sun Pharmaceutical Industries gained 1.48% to Rs 1279.10 after it received an approval from US Food and Drug Administration for the abbreviated new drug application to market a generic of Parke Davis's Cerebyx, fosphenytoin sodium injection.

Textiles firm S.Kumars Nationwide slumped 26.74% to 83.70 after 7.10 lakh shares changed hands on BSE at Rs 110 and 5.02 lakh shares changed hands on NSE at Rs 88.50 each.

Sujana Towers, manufacturer of galvanized steel towers, slumped 9.33% at Rs 86.05 after the firm said Morgan Stanley & Co International Mauritius acquired a further 3.85% stake in the company to raise its total holding to 7.04%.

FMCG products maker Dabur Pharma rose 15.76% to Rs 56.50 after 3.75 million shares or 2.4% of the company's equity capital changed hands on the NSE in a block deal at Rs 50.75 each.

Edible oils maker KS Oils fell 2.83% to Rs 61.90 even as some reports suggested that the firm sees revenue rising to Rs 3200 crore and expects net profit of Rs 200 crore in full year (FY) 2009 due to a rise in demand, following import duty cuts in mustard oil. Indian government on Thursday, 20 March 2008 announced a cut in import duty on some edible oils to improve supplies and rein in inflation that touched a 10-month high.

Most Asian markets were trading higher today, 24 March 2008. Key indices in Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea were up 0.58% to 3.99%. However, China’s Shanghai Composite index was down 4.49% and Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.02%. Stock market in Hong Kong was closed for public holiday.

US stocks soared on Thursday, 20 March 2008 as declining commodity prices helped offset worries about the economic slowdown. Financial stocks rallied on analyst expectations that more mortgage purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may help stabilize the home loan market.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 261.66 points, or 2.16%, to 12,361.32. The Standard & Poor's 500 index added 31.09 points, or 2.39%, to 1,329.51, and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 48.15 points, or 2.18%, to 2,258.11.

As per data released on Thursday, 20 March 2008, India's inflation surged to over 11-month high of 5.92% for the week ended 8 March 2008 as essential items like fruits and vegetables and pulses as well as some manufactured items turned expensive.

Daily Call - March 24 2008

Daily Call - March 24 2008

Short Term Trading Calls - March 24 2008

Buy Indian hotel with a stop loss of Rs 96 for a target of Rs 128

Buy ICSA on declines with a stop loss of Rs 288 for a short term target of Rs 360-370

Buy Sesa Goa with a stop loss of Rs 2800 for a target of Rs 3626

Grey Market Premium - Titagarh Wagons, Kiri Dyes

Gammon Infra 167 10 to 12

Sita Shree Food Pro. 30 6 to 8

Titagarh Wagons Ltd. 540 to 610 50 to 60

Kiri Dyes & Chemicals 125 to 150 12 to 15

Trading Calls - March 24 2008

Nifty (4574) Supp 4400 Res 4700

Buy Sesa Goa (3177) SL 3150 Target 3235, 3255

Buy ONGC (994) SL 987
Target 1015, 1025

Buy Gail (417) SL 412
Target 427, 432

Sell NDTV (371) SL 376
Target 361, 359

Sell Nalco (447) SL 452
Target 437, 434

Pre Market Watch - March 24 2008

The Indian Market is likely to have a positive opening today as he global markets are in favor. On Wednesday, pared most of its initial gains on the back of heavy profit booking across the sectoral indices towards the final trading hours of the session. The domestic market opened with a bang and created a rally across the sectoral indices on the back of favoring cues from the global markets like interest rate cut by US Federal Reserve and better than expected strong performance from- Goldman Sachs Group and Lehman Brothers Holdings, the two major investment banks. But the market was unable to sustained at higher levels and gave up most of its initial gains on the back of long holiday. The BSE Sensex closed higher by 161.37 points at 14,994.83 and NSE Nifty grew by 40.95 points to close 4573.95. We expect that the market may remain choppy during the trading session.

On Friday, the US market closed in green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed higher by 261.66 points at 12,361.32. The S&P 500 (SPX) index grew by 31.09 points to close at 1,329.51 and NASDAQ Composite (RIXF) increased by 48.15 points to close at 2,258.11.

The Indian ADRS closed in positive. In technology sector, Wipro grew by (4%) along with Patni Computers by (3.75%), Satyam by (1.66%) and Infosys by (1.50%). In banking sector, HDFC bank and ICICI bank increased by (2.58%) and (1.21%) respectively. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication and MTNL advanced by (3.47%) and (0.41%) respectively.

Today the major stock markets in Asia are trading firm. Taiwan Weighted is trading higher by 344.84 points at 8,869.83 along with Japan’s Nikkei trading up by 46.33 points at 12,528.90 and Singapore Strait Times trading at 2,891.02 up by 66.11 points. South Korea Seoul Composite is trading marginally higher by 7.26 points at 1,652.95.

The FIIs on Wednesday stood as net seller both in equity as well as debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs4,701.30 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs0.00 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs5,389.10 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs148.20 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was (Rs687.80 Crore) and net debt was (Rs148.20 Crore).

The Wholesale Price index rose to an 11-month high of 5.92%. The WPI-based inflation increased sharply on account of spurt in prices across the board, with cereals (6.28%), milk (9.71%), vegetables (9.79%), dairy products (9.31%), cement (5.13%), iron and steel (20.87%) and edible oils (17.52%). By seeing this growth in inflation, the Indian government has reduced customs duty on rice and edible oils drastically to rein in their prices in domestic market. The customs duty on rice has been cut to nil from 70% earlier as well as duties on all crude and refined edible oils were also slashed from the existing levels of 52% and 75% to 20% and 27.5% respectively.

Today, Nifty has support at 4,471 and resistance at 4,708 and BSE Sensex has support at 14,623 and resistance at 15,312.

Market may move sideways

The presense of a sharp intra-day volatile trend due to lack of clarity may see the market remain edgy and move on the either side of the zone. Rise at the US markets and mixtrend in Asian indices in the present trades could move up the local indices in early trades. Among the key local indices, the Nifty could test higher levels around 4650-4720 and has supports at 4500 and 4450. The Sensex has a likely support at 14760 and may face resistance at 15160.

In the US markets, the broader Dow Jones scaled up by 262 points at 12361, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq moved up by 48 points to close at 2258.

Indian ADRs displayed mixed trend on the US bourses. Rediff soared over 4.80%, Wipro advanced nearly 4%, Patni Computers jumped 3.75% and VSNL gained 3.47% while HDFC Bank, Satyam, Infosys, ICICI Bank and MTNL gained around 1-2% each. However, Dr Reddy's and Tata Motors were down 1% each.

Crude oil prices in the US market was down, with the Nymex Light Crude oil for April delivery losing 70 cents to close at $101.84 a barrel. However, in the Commodity space, the Comex gold for April 08 series lost $25.30 to settle at $920.

Morning Call - March 24 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a support of 4521 and 4445 with resis at 4623 and 4715

Cash: Sell LT below 2839 with a TGT of 2780 with SL

Buy Punjllyod above 314 with a TGT of 320 and a SL of 300

F&O: Buy Infosys above 1364 with a TGT of 1400 and a SL of 1348

Buy Gail above 424 with a TGT of 437 and a SL of 419

Out House :

Markets at a support of 14661 & 14786 and resistance at 15251 & 15451 levels .

Buy : Ongc & Gail at dips

Buy : RIL & Relcap at dips

Buy : HLL & ITC

Buy : Geship & Balrampur

Buy : HDFC

Buy : Nalco

Dark Horse : Skumar , ONGC , Kohinoor , RIL , LT , ITC & HLL

Welcome back…Nothing stable

Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity - Socrates.

It’s one of the longest breaks the Indian markets have taken in recent years. Hope you are recharged for a choppy week ahead. After a bad start last week, the bulls recovered smartly to post moderate gains in the next couple of days. The extended weekend came as a welcome break for the bulls who had been reeling under the bear onslaught since the second week of January. What should come as further relief is that the US market managed to rebound on Thursday after suffering heavily the previous day. This augers well for the bulls at least this morning. For the day, we expect a positive start but trading will turn choppy ahead of Thursday's F&O expiry.

But there is no dearth of bad news. Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse warned that it will report a loss and hedge fund Monsoon Capital has also taken a hit due to the meltdown across global equity markets. India's inflation shot up to 5.92% in the week ended March 8. The infrastructure sector growth nearly halved in January, which taken together with the poor industrial production numbers points to a steep slowdown.

The Government has responded by cutting import duties on edible oils and rice and by imposing export tax on steel. But, despite these measures the Government and its other arms, like the RBI can only do so much to stem the soaring inflation. Most of the recent spike in inflation is due to a global surge in prices of various commodities, particularly that of food and oil. Hence, it will be really tough for the concerned authorities to reign in prices.

So, one still needs to be wary. And, though select buying can be done in quality scrips volatility and uncertainty are here to stay. The next set of earnings will be crucial. Interest rates may not soften due to high inflation. The Indian economy will slow down in FY09. So, the fight between the bulls and bears will continue.

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo was up 55 points at 12,537 while the Kospi in Seoul gained 9 points at 1654 and the Straits Times in Singapore advanced 63 points to 2888.

The Shanghai Composite index in China dropped 69 points to 3726 and the Taiex in Taiwan jumped 291 points to 8816. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5% to 136.48 as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo, with eight of the index's 10 industry groups advancing.

Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand are shut for holidays.

US stocks rallied on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said it will make $75bn in securities available to banks next week as part of its ongoing effort to ease the credit crunch. All financial markets were closed on Friday on account of Good Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced over 260 points or 2.2% to 12,361.32. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 31 points or 2.4% to 1,329.51, and the Nasdaq Composite index jumped 48 points or 2.2% to 2,258.11.

All the three US stock indices rose throughout the session as falling commodity prices, a stronger dollar and signs of stabilisation in the manufacturing sector gave investors an incentive to snap up beaten down shares.

US stocks had tumbled on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones losing almost 300 points, as investors gave back nearly all of the previous session's gains, with losses in financials and commodity stocks leading the way. But, drop in commodity prices, recovering dollar and Fed news helped facilitate a bounce on Thursday.

Investors also welcomed a latest report on the state of manufacturing in the US. The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional manufacturing survey, improved to a reading of -17.4 in March from -24.0 in February. Economists had forecast an improvement to -18.0.

Market breadth was positive and trading volume was heavy due to the quarterly options expiration, in which stock index futures and options and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time.

Oil prices continued to slip while gold prices also plunged. Both oil and gold prices hit record highs early last week, but slipped since then along with other dollar-traded commodities in response to the stronger dollar.

US light crude oil for May delivery fell 70 cents to settle at $102.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trimming bigger morning losses. Oil prices hit a record $111.80 in electronic trading on March 17.

COMEX gold for April delivery slumped $25.30 to settle at $920 an ounce after tumbling $59 in the previous session. Gold hit an all-time trading high of $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17.

Treasury prices slipped, erasing early gains, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.36% from 3.35% late on Wednesday.

European stocks declined for a fourth week on speculation that a slowing global economy will curb demand for energy and metals. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 2.4% to 296.83 in the holiday-shortened week. The benchmark is down 26% from a June high.

National benchmarks decreased in all of the 18 western European markets. Germany's DAX Index slipped 2%, while France's CAC 40 lost 1.3%. The UK's FTSE 100 declined 2.4%. The Stoxx 50 retreated 2.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50, an index for the euro region, sank 1.7%.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was up 0.3% at 58,987 while the IPC index in Mexico slid 1.5% to 29,071. The RTS index in Russia 0.9% to 1964 and the ISE National 30 index in Turkey lost 0.5% to 49,227.

Global cues to dictate trend

Despite kicking off in style, markets gradually lost ground as the session progressed. After hitting an intra-day high of 15,465 the fed inspired rally fizzled out as selling pressure in the index heavyweights like Hindustan Unilever, Hindalco and REL dragged the benchmark Sensex to a low of 14,930. Traders preferred staying light on their positions before one of the longest weekends in the market. The benchmark Sensex fell over 400 points and Nifty index dropped over 150 points from their respective days high. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 14,994 adding 161 points and the Nifty index added 38 points.

Overall about 761 stocks advanced; 1,914 stocks declined while 68 stocks remained unchanged. Among the 30-stocks of Sensex 21 stocks ended in positive territory. On the other hand, 9 stocks ended in red.

Power Grid was up by half a percent to Rs93 after the World Bank approved US$600mn loan to the company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs99 and a low of Rs92 and recorded volumes of over 39,00,000 shares on BSE.

JRG Securities slipped 1.1% to Rs42. The company announced that it would invest Rs229mn in unit JRG Fincorp. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs45 and a low of Rs42 and recorded volumes of over 27,000 shares on BSE.

Aban Offshore was down by 3% to Rs3145. The company announced that it secured US$300mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs3390 and a low of Rs3070 and recorded volumes of over 38,000 shares on BSE.

MTNL edged lower by 0.7% to Rs97. Reports stated that the company had been selected as the preferred bidder to buy Sri Lankan telco Suntel, and is in talks with several other companies to offload 50% stake in Suntel. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs104 and a low of Rs96 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on BSE.

Ram Informatics declined by over 5% to Rs11.30. The company said that it has received an orders from Saptagiri Grameena Bank and Pallavan Grameena Bank (Sponsored by Indian Bank) for SmartBanker Software for 25 new branches. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs12.50 and a low of Rs11 and recorded volumes of over 16,000 shares on BSE.

Diamond Cables dropped by 9% to Rs354. The company announced the receipt of EPC - Turnkey order for Implementation of Rajiv Gandhi Gramin Vidyutikaran Yojna (RGGY) for Bhavnagar District of Gujarat. The entire District RGGY in three lots has been awarded to the Company. The project will entail providing power to appex 21295 consumers resulting in Setting up of 139 Transformer Centers and Erection and Commissioning of Distribution Lines aggregating 382 Kms. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs383 and a low of Rs305 and recorded volumes of over 44,000 shares on BSE.

Tata Communications marginally gained 0.3% to Rs511 after the company announced the launch of its global TelePresence network service which has achieved Cisco Certified TelePresence Connection status. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs574 and a low of Rs504 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

PSTL fell 2% to Rs284.The company said that it has signed Memorandum of Cultural Cooperation with CSMRB, Ministry of Culture, Government of People's Republic of China and also a Joint Venture Agreement with Longzhe Group - forms a new JV "Jiangsu Pyramid Longzhe Group". The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs330 and a low of Rs277 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

Subex was down by 5.8% to Rs142. The company announced that it secured contract for fraud management systems in Poland. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs164 and a low of Rs140 and recorded volumes of over 31,000 shares on BSE.

Corporate Front Page

BSNL and MTNL get DoT approval to launch nationwide CDMA services.(FE)
Coal India to invest Rs15bn to set up 28 washeries in its subsidiaries in the 11th plan.(ET)
BHEL likely to invest Rs50bn over the next three years on its JV with NTPC and Nuclear Power Corporation.(BS)
Time Warner promoted AOL may be selling its call centre business to the BPO arm of Essar group for US$100mn.(TOI)
NTPC to invest Rs44bn for setting up a 750MW coal-based thermal power project in Assam.(BS)
Aban Offshore receives an order for rig deployment in the Middle East forUS$300mn.(ET)
Maruti Suzuki to invest Rs90bn, mostly in non-vehicle manufacturing areas like R&D, logistics amongst others.(BS)
GMR Infrastructure led consortium takes charge of Turkey’s Sabiha Gocken International airport for development.(ET)
JSW Energy proposes to set up a 1,320MW power plant in Madhya Pradesh.(BS)
Sun Pharmaceuticals gets FDA approval to market generic drug Cerebyx used during neuro-surgery.(ET)
Ispat Industries promoted Global Steel Holdings signs up mining leases for iron ore and coal reserves in Brazil, Colombia and Mozambique.(BS)
State owned NMDC in talks with Canada’s New Millennium Capital Corp for an US$3.5bn iron ore project.(BS)
Telekom Malaysia to transfer its stake in Spice into a separate company, likely to be called Telekom International. (ET)
Cochin International Airport, which runs Kochi international airport, plans to raise Rs25bn through an IPO in 2009.(BS)
Reliance Infrastructure plans strategic alliance with Indiabulls Real Estate for development of latter’s SEZ in Maharashtra.(TOI)
ArcelorMittal plans to develop coal mines; seeks JV with Coal India.(TOI)
Petronet LNG on the look out for stakes in Australian gas fields.(TOI)
Unitech may look to ‘monetize’ its upcoming hotel business within 2.5 years of operations; options include listing, sale of assets or hotel REIT.(BL)
PNB expects to get Rs20bn from the government in the financial year beginning April for farm loan waiver.(BS)
Power Grid Corp to get a US$600mn loan from the World Bank to strengthen its network.(BS)
Elecon Engineering on look out for an acquisition in US or Europe in the range of Rs3-4bn.(DNA)
CALS Refineries, promoted by Spice group signs MoU with West Bengal Industrial Development Corp. and Haldia Development Authority for an Rs200bn refinery project in Haldia.(BS)
Champagne Indage acquires Australian Vintage’s Loxton winery for Rs2.3bn.(BL)
Blue Dart to increase warehousing capacity to 2mn sq.ft.(BS)
Rajasthan government stops work on a Cairn India pipeline; says it would result in loss of tax revenues to the state.(BS)
Amtek Auto to produce 5,000 railway wagons in a JV with a North American wagon supplier.(BL)
Essar Communications Holdings arm to invest US$450mn to rollout telecom services in Kenya.(BS)
Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank to invest US$500mn in Unitech SPV. (ET)
Ranbaxy suffers setback as a Canadian court upholds Pfizer patent for a molecule of cholesterol-lowering drug Lipitor.(FE)
George Soros buys 2.5% stake in Indiabulls Real Estate for Rs2.8bn.(ET)
Kribhco plans a Rs40bn power project in Bihar.(BS)

Economic Front Page

Inflation rises to eleven month high of 5.92%; government cuts import duty on edible oil and rice.(TOI)
DoT says all players can bid up to 10MHz of 3G spectrum rejecting TRAI’s recommendation on the same.(ET)
Core sector growth halved to 4.2% in January with decline in crude production.(FE)
Government may consider a proposal to levy 10% export duty on all grades of finished steel.(ET)
Government proposes cess of up to 6% on coal with high ash content.(ET)
India expected to attract FDI worth Rs1tn in mining exploration of gold and diamond.(Mint)
Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh is expected to drop by 15% to 7.2mn tons in current crushing season.(ET)
Sixth Pay Commission recommendations are expected to be submitted to the finance ministry early next week.(BS)
Non-food credit growth slows down to 21.8% during April-February 2007-08 compared with 29.6% a year ago.(BS)
Central government staff may get a 50% pay hike.(TOI)
Fiscal deficit for quarter ended December declined to Rs776bn from Rs949bn a year ago.(ET)
Domestic aviation growth in 2007 declines to 11.5% from more than 32% in the previous year.(ET)
I&B Ministry considering TRAI proposals to lower license fees for DTH players from 10% to 6%.(ET)
Five SEZs projects get approval with four in the IT sector.(DNA)
Insurance regulator IRDA may limit insurance companies’ investment in mortgage backed securities to 10%.(ET)

US Market gains well for the week

Financial sector guides market to a strong week that witnesses major sell-off in commodities

It was a holiday shortened week for US Market for the week that ended on Thursday, 20 March, 2008. But the good news about the week was that all the indices posted healthy gains for the week though trading remained immensely volatile. The financial sector dictated market momentum for most part of the week. Other than that, traders parted off with commodities as dollar continued to strengthen after Federal Reserve’s seventy five basis point rate cut last weekend

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 410 points for the week. Tech - heavy Nasdaq gained almost 46 points. S&P 500 gained 41 points.

On Monday, 17 March, death of Bear Sterns was the most important news for the market as Federal reserve stepped in helping JP Morgan Chase to buy Bear Sterns at a paltry sum of $2/share. Fed also announced a 25 basis point cut in its discount rate to 3.25% and created a new lending facility to provide financing to participants in securitization markets - its first weekend action in more than 25 years. After being down by almost 200 points at open, the Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a gain of 21.16 points.

Tuesday’s momentum was dictated by some good set of earning reports coming from Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. Stocks shot higher on the these reports but dismissing a higher than expected reading in the core Producer Price Index took some steam out of market.

However, at 2.15 E.T, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it is cutting the fed funds rate and discount rates by 75 basis points. That left the fed funds rate at 2.25% and the discount rate at 2.50%. Market’s immediate response was negative but The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a gain of 420 points. The S&P 500 advanced 4.2%, scoring its biggest one-day percentage move since October 2002.

Wednesday’s (19 March, 2008) momentum picked up on a good note following a better than expected earning report from Morgan Stanley. The day also got some good related to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight is allowing the two government sponsored enterprises to purchase more home loans.

But in the final couple of hours of trading, weakness in commodity market pushed the indices back to the wall. Gold, crude oil and other metals witnessed drastic slide in prices as dollar strengthened after rate cut by Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a loss of 261 points.

Among other economic reports for the week, Industrial production fell 0.5% in February. This was worse than the expected decline of 0.1%. Also, the New York Empire State Index, a regional manufacturing survey, fell to -22.2 from -11.7. This was worse than the expected reading of -7.4. It marks the lowest Empire reading on record since the survey started in 2001.

February Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding food & energy rose 0.5% month-over-month, which was more than the expected rise of 0.2%. Commerce Department reported that February housing starts came in at an annualized rate of 1.065 million, which beat the expected reading of 995,000. However, building permits were 978,000, which missed the expected reading of 1.020 million.

The strengthening dollar weighed on commodities, with oil sliding to $101.54 per barrel, and gold giving up 3.5% to $912.22 per ounce. For the week, both commodities lost around 8%.

Daily Technical Futures - March 24 2008

Daily Technical Futures - March 24 2008

Market Outlook - March 24 2008

Market Outlook - March 24 2008

Anant Raj

Anant Raj

Ceat, ABB, Neyveli Lignite, Unitech

Research: Merrill Lynch
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,103

Merrill lynch has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on ABB. The company has stated that its strategy of expanding products, capacities and markets should continue to deliver strong growth, despite volatile commodity markets. The management has said that India’s plan to add 78 gigawatts (gw) of new generation capacity, related investment in transmission and distribution (T&D) and industrial capital expenditure (capex), especially in the metals & mining and infrastructure space, are picking up. ABB’s order book, at Rs 5,000 crore — up 49% year-on-year (YoY) — support its growth strategy.

The company has won key orders such as robotics from Tata Motors, Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation’s (KPTCL) supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) order and transformer/traction motor order from Bombardier for the Delhi Metro. ABB is spending $100 million over ’08-09 on capex (factories) and launching new products — wind generators for exports. The structural drivers of ABB are India’s plans to expand its national power transmission grid, with inter-regional grid capacity of ~37.2 gw (14.1 gw in FY07) and industrial capex focused on higher automation.

The adoption of ultra high voltage direct current (HVDC) lines by FY09E is a significant opportunity for a world leader like ABB. Further, the downstream opportunity lies in medium voltage and engaging in cross-selling across businesses to focused verticals such as metal, water and special economic zone (SEZ), which comprise around 10% of its sales.

Neyveli Lignite
Research: Indiabulls Financials
Rating: Hold
CMP: Rs 110

Indiabulls has reiterated its ‘hold’ rating on Neyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC). However, any decline in the share price from the current level will be a good buying opportunity. As on March 14, ’08, NLC inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Northern Coalfields to set up a 1,000-mw pit-head power station worth Rs 5,200 crore at Gorbi mines in the Singrauli coal fields. Moving ahead with regard to its capacity expansion plans, NLC is also holding talks with Mahanadi Coalfields (MCL) to set up a 2,000-mw pit-head power unit at Vasundhara mines in the IB Valley coalfields.

With the increased energy deficit in NCL’s customer states, demand risks for the company are minimal. Moreover, NCL draws sustainable competitive advantage from its competitive capital cost, low variable cost of generation, and easily available lignite. However, lignite being a low-grade coal suffers from the disadvantage of lower plant load factor (PLF), thus resulting in reduced generation. To overcome these disadvantages and to improve PLF, the company is foraying into coal-based power plants, with the first one in Tuticorin of 1,000 mw, expected to be commissioned by FY10-12.

Research: CLSA
Rating: Outperform
CMP: Rs 267

Unitech’s plans to raise $1bn+ have been delayed due to adverse market conditions. Hence, CLSA has cut the company’s FY10 consolidated volume estimates by 15% as Unitech will have moderate growth plans. A potential private equity for Mumbai business expansion can be a positive trigger in the near term.

Taking into account the potential demand-supply issues and aggressive pricing strategy adopted by certain industry players, CLSA has reduced base residential price assumptions by 5-10% and has assumed a 10% correction in office/retail rentals over FY08-FY10. In the residential segment, 79% of projects are valued at Rs 3,000/square foot or less. CLSA has also raised the cap rate assumptions by 100-200 bps, driven by the rise in Singapore real estate investment trust (REIT) yields. With this, CLSA has set a 9% cap rate for office and 10% for retail.

Based on the above changes in assumptions and cap rate, Unitech’s forward net asset value (NAV) comes off by 15% to Rs 365/share. Sensitivity analysis shows that if rentals and price assumptions are lowered by another 10%, the NAV will come down to Rs 304/share — 10% higher than the current stock price.

Opto Circuits India
Research: Networth Stock Broking
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 326

Networth Stock Broking has recommended a ‘buy’ rating on the stock with one-year price target of Rs 429 — an appreciation of 30% from the current level. Opto Circuits operates in a niche area of manufacturing healthcare equipment in India.

It is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of medical electronic devices and monitoring products that employ sensing and detection techniques. Its product portfolio comprises sensors, probes, pulse oxymeters, patient monitoring systems and digital thermometers.

Following the acquisition of Eurocor in FY06, Opto has successfully launched its bare-metal and drug eluding stents with focus on the Asian and European markets. It recently launched Dior, a unique drug eluding catheter, which can be used in the treatment of coronary in-stent restenosis and small diameter coronary artery lesions.

Eurocor is the only company in the world to have obtained a CE certification for its drug eluting balloon catheters. Opto’s net sales and profits are expected to witness a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42% and 41% from FY08E to FY10E. At the current market price of Rs 330, the stock trades at 23.6x and 16.9x its FY08E and FY09E diluted earnings, respectively.

Research: Edelweiss
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 97

Edelweiss maintains a ‘buy’ recommendation on Ceat. The company sold 6.92 acres of the 31-acre land at its Bhandup plant for Rs 130 crore, valuing the property at Rs ~18.8 crore/acre. Of the total consideration, Rs 120 crore will be received by the company in Q4 FY08E and the balance in FY09E. The current sale will not impact the company’s production.

Over the next 24-30 months, the company intends to shift capacity from Bhandup to a new facility at Ambernath or Patalganga, after which, the balance 24 acres will be sold. Great plans to increase capacity by 40 tonnes per day (tpd) at the new facility from the existing 240 tpd at the Bhandup plant. It also plans to set up a radial tyre facility at a cost of Rs 500 crore over the next 36 months. The company plans to incur a capex of Rs 200 crore each for FY09E and FY10E, which will be funded through land sale and internal accruals.

With increased focus on outsourcing, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) volumes are set to increase. Given strong demand from the replacement market, Edelweiss has a positive outlook on Ceat. At current market price of Rs 115, the stock is trading at 5x FY08E (core) EPS of Rs 22.9 and 3.5x FY09E EPS of Rs 32.6

Gold, silver fall

Gold and silver prices once again end substantially down as dollar rallies

Precious metals closed considerably down once again on Thursday, 20 March, 2008. Prices fell after dollar continued to rally after Federal Reserve decided to cut overnight lending rate by 75 bps to 2.25% earlier this week. A stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Silver prices fell substantially on that day.

After dropping almost $60 on Wednesday, Comex Gold for April delivery fell $25.3 (2.7%) to close at $920 ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the week on Monday, 17 March, prices skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But since Wednesday, after Fed’s interest rate cut decision was out, prices started tumbling.

This year, gold prices have gained 9.3% till date. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. For February, it gained 6%. But ion March, prices have succumbed. For the week, gold prices dropped by more than 8%.

Comex Silver futures for May delivery fell $1.59 (8.6%) to $16.85 an ounce. Silver has gained 25% in 2008. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%. In February, it gained another 15%.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

The Fed action took the federal funds rate target down to 2.25%, the lowest since December 2004. Since last September, Fed has axed interest rates six times.

In the currency market, the dollar continued to rally, with the dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, up 1%.

At the MCX, gold prices for April delivery closed lower by Rs 323 (2.6%) at Rs 12,048 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 12,357 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,858 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for May delivery closed Rs 1,745 (7.2%) lower at Rs 22,276/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 23,901/kg and fell to a low of Rs 22,110/Kg during the day’s trading.

Crude falls back to $100

Prices continue to drop as traders part ways with commodities

Crude prices fell drastically once again on Thursday, 20 March, 2008 but at the end, prices closed modestly lower. Prices fell as traders continued to part ways with commodities due to rising economic concerns in the US. Prices had been continuing to slip ever since Federal Reserve decided to cut overnight lending rates by 75 bps to bring it down to 2.25% to strengthen the economy. Prices also softened after Energy Department reported a day earlier about rise in crude inventories and drop in crude demand for last week.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for May delivery closed at $101.84/barrel (lower by $0.70/barrel or 0.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier dropped by $3 to $98.65. Crude prices are 80% higher on a yearly basis. The crude ended the week lower by more than $8 (8.2%) .

A stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, crude prices, denominated in dollars, tend to rise when the greenback falls, as a weaker U.S. currency makes crude less expensive to buyers holding other currencies. It also lowers oil producers' dollar revenue and forces them to raise prices.

On Wednesday, 19 March, EIA reported today that U.S. crude inventories rose less than expected, up 200,000 barrels to 311.8 million barrels in the week ending 14 March. U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 9.5 million barrels per day last week, down nearly 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous week.

In the currency market, the dollar continued to rally, with the dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, up 1%.

Crude had ended FY 2007 substantially higher by $35 or 57%. It was crude’s biggest yearly gain in five years.

OPEC left production targets unchanged on its 5 March meeting at Vienna, giving 12 of its 13 members a combined quota of 29.67 million barrels a day.

At the MCX, crude oil for March delivery closed at Rs 4,073/barrel, lower by Rs 85 (2%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for March delivery closed at Rs 368.7/mmtbu, higher by Rs 1.9/mmtbu (0.5%).

Caught in the Bear’s grip

Read this interesting article on Businessline