Our lives improve only when we take chances - and the first and most difficult risk we can take is to be honest with ourselves.
But, taking chances now may not be too prudent a move, as the market can always make a fool out of you. So, take the world as it is and not as it ought to be. Take for instance the rising threat of terrorism, what with Taliban threatening to attack the US.
Coming to the market, the key indices have logged slim gains in the January-March quarter. This is the first such instance in over a year. However, the real test for the bulls will come this month, as we approach elections and earnings. There is also considerable anxiety over the health of the US banks and its fallout worldwide. One thing is sure that the re-balancing process will take time.
Today, we expect the market to maintain the current momentum. But, one should not be surprised if there is some cooling from higher levels.
Meanwhile, the circuit filter for the April-June quarter is at 950 points for Sensex. We can always expect it on the downside but can’t hope for it on the upside.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs5.84bn while the local institutions poured Rs10.39bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs11.1bn.
US stocks climbed on Tuesday, ending March on a very upbeat note with the key stock benchmarks posting their best monthly gains in more than six years and one of the top 20 months since 1950.
Tuesday's rally gave the Dow Jones Industrial Average its first monthly gains after six straight months of declines. But all three major indices declined in the January-March quarter.
The Dow rose 87 points, or 1.2%, to 7,608.92. The S&P 500 index gained 10 points, or 1.3%, at 797.87. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 27 points, or 1.8%, to 1,528.59.
All the three major indices had posted bigger gains through the late afternoon, but the advance lost some steam near the close.
US stocks had fallen in the previous two sessions on worries about the auto and bank sectors. Prior to that, stocks had gained more than 20%, with the Dow and S&P 500 bouncing off 12-year lows hit early in March. Thoee gains were sparked by optimism that the economy is closer to stabilizing.
Up until the last few minutes of trade, the Dow had been on track to see its best March since 1928. But some late selling left the blue-chip indicator with a monthly gain of just 7.7% - the best since March 2002. The S&P 500 gained 8.5% in March, its best since March 2000. The Nasdaq is up 10.9%, its best March ever, going back to its inception in 1971.
Year-to-date, the Dow is down 13.3%, making the first quarter its worst since 1939. For the quarter and year-to-date, the S&P 500 is down 11.7% and the Nasdaq is off 3%.
Stock gains were broad-based, with 23 of 30 Dow stocks rising. Dow gainers included IBM, Chevron, McDonald's, 3M, Microsoft and Alcoa.
The Dow's financial components spiked too, continuing the recovery off multi-year lows. Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase all gained.
General Motors (GM) slumped 28%. On Monday, the Obama administration rejected turnaround plans from GM and Chrysler, saying that a bigger overhaul is needed if they want more taxpayer money. As part of the revamp, GM chief executive Rick Wagoner was asked to step down. Late on Monday, Obama appointed an auto czar to focus on the industry's woes.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index fell a record 19% in January from a year earlier, after falling a record 18.6% in December. The index is a measure of 20 major metropolitan areas.
The March consumer confidence index from the Conference Board rose to 26 from 25.3, missing forecasts for a rise to 28.
The Chicago PMI slipped to 31.4 in March from 34.2 in February, missing forecasts for a slight improvement to 34.3.
Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.68% from 2.71% on Monday.
Lending rates were mostly higher. The 3-month Libor rate dipped to 1.19% from 1.21% on Monday. The overnight Libor rate rose to 0.51% from 0.29% Monday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.
In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.
US light crude oil for May delivery settled up $1.25 to $49.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for June delivery rose $7.30 to settle at $925 an ounce.
Wednesday morning brings reports on employment, manufacturing, housing, construction spending and oil inventories. March sales from the nation's automakers are due throughout the day.
The February pending home sales index is expected to show no change after having fallen 7.7% in the previous month.
Private-sector employers are expected to have cut 663,000 from their payrolls in March after cutting 697,000 jobs in February. The report from payroll services firm ADP is closely watched ahead of Friday's monthly employment report.
Bulls staged a strong come back on Tuesday on the back of firm cues from the Asian markets coupled with all round buying witnessed in scrips across the sectors. The rally was led by the interest rate sensitive stocks followed by the capital goods and the Pharma stocks.
Among the 30-share Sensex 25 stocks ended in the positive terrain and only 5 stocks ended in the red. JP Associates, Tata Steel, Ranbaxy, Tata Motors and Reliance Communication were among the top gainers.
On the other hand, HDFC, NTPC, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ONGC were among the major losers.
Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex surged by 140 points 9,708 and the NSE Nifty surged by over 40 points at 3,017.
Shares of Tata Power gained by a percent to Rs765 after reports stated that it announced the commencement of operations of its 250MW unit 8 of its Trombay Thermal Power Station. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs789 and an intra-day low of Rs755 recording volumes of over 0.12mn shares on BSE
Shares of Reliance Industries have edged higher by 0.5% to Rs1523 after reports stated that the company is close to signing KG gas sale agreements with over 6 power companies including Dhabol. Reports also stated that the company stopped production of crude at KG-D6 for 45 days to bring more wells into operation, thus raising output to peak of 40,000 barrels per day.
The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1552 and an intra-day low of Rs1514 recording volumes of over 1.6mn shares on BSE.
Shares of L&T have surged by over 3% to Rs672 after the company announced that it bagged a slew of large-value orders aggregating Rs 11bn in the electrical construction sector in the fourth quarter of 2008-09. The orders have come from PowerGrid Corporation of India Limited and the Rail Vikas Nigam Limited an involves setting up high end transmission lines and substations as well as a project for the Indian Railways.
Shares of DLF advanced by 1% to Rs167 after reports stated that the company may announced a relief package for its customers of its Gurgaon project, ‘Express Greens’, a few days after it announced a similar package for those who booked at its ‘New Town Heights’ residential project.
Reports also stated that the company has decided to divest its windmill power generation business. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs171 and an intra-day low of Rs160 recording volumes of over 4.6mn shares on BSE.
Shares of Reliance Infrastructure have advanced by 2.5% to Rs515 after the company announced that it is empanelled as the Information Technology Implementation Agency with Power Finance Corporation for implementing information technologies in State Electricity Boards.
After staging a strong come back on Tuesday, Indian markets would look to carry the momentum atleast in the opening trades , provided global cues give some way. However, volatility would be the order of the day.