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Friday, June 05, 2009

Climate conducive for growth!


It is your human environment that makes climate.

Climate change is among the several headwinds that we face today, even as the stock markets across the globe rejoice an environment of ‘green shoots.’ It’s a sobering thought to consider, as we mark the World Environment Day. In two decades the death toll from the adverse fallout of climate change could hit 50,000 and the annual economic cost is likely to be $340bn, warns a report.

Coming to the market, we may see modest gains at start on account of positive trend across global markets. From thereon, the direction will hinge on fresh global cues and the risk taking abilities of investors, both overseas and local ones. Given the soaring valuations, fresh buying may be a risky bet, particularly in small- and mid-caps.

The President has declared the intent of the new Government, but the challenge lies in execution. There could be some disappointment if the budget and other policy measures fail to live up to expectations. Some moderation in sentiment won’t do us any harm after the fast and furious run. Banks could see some positive action though.

In the global markets, UK is facing a potential political turmoil after a third cabinet minister resigned. The pound fell sharply to erase early gains on Thursday as rumours circulated that Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, had resigned. The British prime minister is facing a revolt, with MPs gathering signatures for a petition calling on him to stand down.

Meanwhile, fewer American workers filed claims for jobless benefits last week, signaling that the worst phase of the employment slump has passed. The report came a day ahead of the big monthly jobs report for May. US companies are expected to have cut 520,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 539,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.2% from 8.9% in the previous month.

Cosmo Films, Indiabulls Real Estate and Jyothy Labs will announce their results today.

US stocks climbed on Thursday, led by energy, financial and technology shares, as investors welcomed signs of improvement in the labor market ahead of the big monthly jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 75 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 index added 10 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 24 points, or 1.3%.

Oil prices surged, along with the underlying stocks, after Goldman Sachs boosted its 2009 crude forecast to $85 a barrel and issued a 2010 forecast of $95 per barrel. Bank shares advanced as well, lifting the 24-share KBW Bank index by 4.8%.

The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report offered a few encouraging signs in advance of Friday's big jobs report. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment dipped last week to 621,000 from a revised 625,000 in the previous week. Economists forecast 620,000 new claims.

But continuing claims - the number of Americans receiving claims for a second week or more - declined for the first time in 20 weeks.

In other economic news, first-quarter productivity increased 1.6%, revised up from its first reading of 0.8%. Economists forecast a revised gain of 1.2%.

Most May retail sales reports showed that the US consumer continues to struggle. May retail sales fell a sharper-than-expected 4.8%, according to Thomson Reuters, versus a gain of 1.1% a year ago.

Gap said same-store sales, or sales at stores open more than a year, fell 6% while Abercrombie & Fitch said same-store sales fell 28%. Both stocks tumbled.

No. 1 retailer Wal-Mart, which no longer issues monthly sales results and is therefore not included in the index, said that it will hire over 22,000 people this year to work at its new or expanded US stores.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said that it has filed fraud charges against former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo and two others. The charges likely relate to the timing of Mozilo's sale of shares of the mortgage lender - and whether he benefited from dumping stock ahead of the company's near implosion and subsequent sale to Bank of America.

Intel will buy software maker Wind River for $884 million in cash, or $11.50 per share, a premium of more than 40% over Wind River's Wednesday closing price. Intel gained 1.2%, while Wind River rose 47%.

Regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp said it sold $1 billion of common stock and is on track to raise more than the $1.1 billion federal regulators have said it must as a result of the "stress tests." Shares gained 7.3%.

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.71% from 3.54% Wednesday.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

US light crude oil for July delivery rose $2.69 to settle at $68.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $16.70 to settle at $982.30 an ounce.

Friday brings the May jobs report from the Labor Department. Employers are expected to have cut 520,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 539,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.2% from 8.9% in the previous month.

Although the report will be closely watched, the results are not likely to shake investors too much, unless they diverge considerably from forecasts. The labor market is generally recovers last compared to the rest of the economy.

European shares edged lower in a choppy session. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.2% to 209.47. Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.2% to 5,064.80, the French CAC-40 index advanced 0.1% to 3,312.03 and the UK's FTSE 100 index edged up 0.1% to 4,386.94.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left interest rates on hold as expected on Thursday, as they focus on their bond-purchase programs. The ECB said that it will begin direct purchases of 60 billion euros worth of covered bonds in July.

Indian markets resumed its up run after ending on a flat note in the past coupled of trading session. Falling inflation and UPA’s reassurance of maintaining high economic growth with low inflation lifted the sentiment on Dalal Street.

All round buying was witnessed with the Realty, Capital, Goods, Power, mid-cap and the small-cap among the major gainers.

The Sensex gained 137 points or 0.9% to end at 15,007 after touching a high of 15,026 and a low of 14,599. The index had opened at 14,755 against the previous close of 14,871.

The NSE Nifty added 40 points or 0.9% to shut shop at 4,570.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Capital Goods index was the top gainer surging 3.3%, followed by the BSE Realty index up 3%, BSE Pharma index up 2.5%, BSE Power index up 2.1% and BSE PSU index up 1.7%.

Shares of Tata Motors gained by 2% to Rs369 after reports stated that the company has secured an order to supply 4,689 buses for the JNNRUM project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs374 and a low of Rs352 and recorded volumes of over 0.9m shares on BSE.

Shares of GVK Power gained by 2% to Rs48 following the company’s announcement that it is planning to raise Rs25bn via the QIP route. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs50.4 and a low of Rs47 and recorded volumes of over 20.2mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Union Bank gained by 1% to Rs217 following reports that the company was eying business of Rs3trillion in FY10. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs220 and a low of Rs212 and recorded volumes of over 64,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Pantaloon Retail advanced by 1% to Rs322. According to reports the company has delayed its restructuring plan as it awaits a favorable FDI policy. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs330 and a low of Rs309 and recorded volumes of over 0.2mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Network 18 surged by over 3.5% to Rs160. The company announced that it would raise Rs1.2bn through preferential allotment of shares to Asian private equity firm SAIF Partners, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs166.8 and a low of Rs145 and recorded volumes of over 0.3mn shares on BSE.

With the BSE Sensex closing above the 15000 levels for the first time since September 2008, the bulls would look to capitalize and build on to further gain ground. However, one cannot rule out profit booking as Friday being the last trading session of the week, traders and investors would look to lock in some gains.