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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Stars finally shine for bulls!


Stretching his hand out to catch the stars, he forgets the flowers at his feet.
After several days of setbacks, especially post the Budget, the bulls may kick off the day’s proceedings on a strong footing. All thanks to a worldwide rally and of course pick up in monsoon activity. So, put a smile of your face as the key indices are likely to open with a decent gap. Don’t confuse the rally for a broader turnaround in sentiment. Overall, things remain precarious. Concerns still persist over the health of key global economies and western financial institutions.
Back home, an erratic monsoon is giving sleepless nights to farmers and authorities. How the earnings season will unfold is anybody’s guess. There are also worries that inflation and interest rates – the two bugbears of the equity bulls – could rear their ugly heads in the coming months. Volatility is going to be the norm rather than exception. It is tough to catch the highs and lows of the markets. What you can do is keep your eyes wide open and ears to the ground. Stick to a day–to-day regime for now. Pick up some flowers on the way, which are within your reach. As for the stars, for now just keep watching them.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Monday at Rs5.59bn while the local institutions poured in Rs7.42bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs2.25bn. On Friday, the foreign funds were net sellers of Rs6.23bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs3.11bn on the same day.
Results Today: Blue Dart, HDFC Bank, J&K Bank, Jubilant Organosys, PFC, Rallis India and Sintex Industries.
US stocks jumped on Monday, led by gains in financials and consumer oriented companies as investors welcomed an upgrade of Goldman Sachs a day ahead of its quarterly earnings report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 185 points, or 2.3%, to end at 8,331.68. The S&P 500 index added 22 points, or 2.5%, to 901.05. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 37 points, or 2.1%, to 1,793.21.
Stocks gained through the morning, after a shaky start. But the advance received an extra boost after influential banking analyst Meredith Whitney upgraded her view on Goldman Sachs and said that Bank of America could provide value for investors.
Both companies are due to report results this week, with Goldman due on Tuesday and BofA due on Friday. Other financial companies set to report include JPMorgan Chase on Thursday and Citigroup on Friday.
Goldman shares climbed 5.3% as Whitney gave the firm the only "buy" rating among the eight companies she covers. Bank of America jumped 9.3%, the most in almost two months, after the analyst told a television news channel that the shares were the "cheapest" among US banks.
Four other Dow companies are due to report results this week: Johnson & Johnson, IBM, GE and Intel.
This week brings the first big batch of quarterly financial results, with 31 of the S&P 500 companies due to report. S&P earnings are expected to have declined 36% in the second quarter versus a year ago, according to the latest Thomson Reuters estimates.
Meeting or beating earnings won't be enough to push Wall Street higher. Investors are keenly awaiting to see revenue growth and improved forecasts.
Barclays Plc lifted its year-end estimate for the S&P 500 by 23% to 930 and said US stocks are poised for a "recovery rally" as the world’s largest economy improves. Head of US equity strategy at Barclays raised his forecast from 757, citing the bank’s higher projections for economic growth in the second half of 2009 in a note to clients after financial markets closed on July 10.
After the close, Dell said it expects to report a slight increase in revenue when its second quarter ends at the end of July. The computer maker also said it expects to see a small decline in gross margins, a key measure of profitability.
US stock gains were broad-based with all 30 Dow stocks rising, led by oil components Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
The Dow and S&P 500 have slumped for four straight weeks and the Nasdaq for three of the past four weeks. A spring rally propelled the broad market by 40% in three months, but since then the sentiment has turned a bit weaker amid worries that the recession could last longer than anticipated.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the benchmark gauge of US stock options, slid the most since March. The so-called VIX, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, tumbled 9.3% to 26.31.
The federal budget deficit increased in June, pushing the total budget shortfall to over $1 trillion in the first nine months of the fiscal year.
Economic reports are due on Tuesday on June retail sales, June wholesale inflation and May business inventories.
Treasury prices were little changed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 3.30%, near where it stood late on Friday.
In currency trading, the dollar fell against the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.
US light crude oil for August delivery fell 20 cents to settle at $59.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for August delivery rose $10 to settle at $922.50 an ounce.
AIG rose the most in the S&P 500, rallying 24% after the Commercial Times reported that Primus Financial Holdings Ltd. will make a $2 billion bid for the U.S. insurer’s Taiwan life insurance unit, citing unidentified industry people.
CIT Group Inc. lost 12%. The century-old lender that has not been able to persuade the government to back its debt sales, says its demise would put 760 manufacturing clients at risk of failure and precipitate a crisis for as many as 300,000 retailers.
CIT may receive assistance from the US government to prevent a collapse that could hurt hundreds of thousands of corporate borrowers, the Wall Street Journal reported. However, CIT bonds plunged on concern that the lender won’t be able to meet its credit obligations.
European shares finished in the green as Philips Electronics advanced after posting an unexpected profit and banks gained ground. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 1.7% to 200.50.
The UK's FTSE 100 index gained 1.8% to 4,202.13, while Germany's DAX index added 3.2% to 4,722.34 and the French CAC-40 index inched up 2.3% to 3,052.08.
Indian markets extended its losing streak to third straight trading session on Monday with the NSE Nifty index ending below the 4,000 mark for the first time post election outcome. The index has corrected 15% or has lost ~700 points from its high of 4,693 touched in mid June.
It was a rollercoaster ride for the Indian markets on Monday. With the global picture turned pale and the monsoon jitters not yet vanished, bears had an upper hand throughout the trading session.
However, sentiment was slightly boosted after Axis Bank came in with its quarterly numbers beating markets estimates by a margin. But the steroid soon lost its effect as profit taking once again dragged markets lower.
The Sensex finally ended lower by 104 points or 0.8% to end at 13,400 after touching a high of 13,462 and a low of 13,220. The index had opened at 13,406 against the previous close of 13,504.
The NSE Nifty slipped 27 points or 0.7% to shut shop at 3,976.
Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Consumer Durables index was the top loser losing 5.3%, followed by the BSE Metal index down 4%, BSE Realty index down 3.7% and BSE Auto index down 2.6%.
Even the broader indices ended in the red, the BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 2.6% and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 3.2%.

On the other hand, the BSE IT index was the top gainer, up 1.7% and BSE Bankex index ended higher by 0.3%.
In the Sensex, the major gainers were Sun Pharma, Infosys, Grasim, Sterlite, ICICI Bank, TCS and Wipro.

On the other hand, Reliance Infra, JP Associates, Tata Steel, Maruti, DLF, Hindalco and Hero Honda were among the top losers.

Outside the frontline indices, the top losers included Hind Copper, Balrampur Chini, Century Tex, Jai Corp, Renuka Sugar and Biocon.
Among the big gainers in the broader market were Tulip Tele, HCL Tech, Ashok Leyland, Bank of India and REI Agro.
Axis Bank reported first quarter profit of Rs5.62bn as against Rs3.3bn in the same period previous year. This translates into a growth of 70% YoY.
The stock bounced back sharply and ended higher by 2.2% at Rs755. The total quantity traded on the counter was 2.3mn shares on the BSE.
Shares of Gammon India shot up over 12% from its day’s low in the late trades.
The stock had slipped sharply in the morning trades after a part of an under construction Delhi Metro line collapsed on Sunday morning which was being constructed by Gammon India. This was the second accident involving Gammon India.
The first incident was when Gammon was held responsible for the collapse incident in Panjagutta Hyderabad which claimed two lives in September 2007. Eight pre-fabricated segments of the flyover collapsed after scaffolding caved in on September 9, 2007.
The government may give subsidies on domestic fuel sales to private oil companies, stated reports.
This move would put private firms on par with oil marketing companies owned by government that are compensated for selling petroleum products to consumers at below cost.
Shares of Essar Oil erased early gains and ended lower by 1% to Rs119 after hitting an intra-day Rs124 and a low of Rs117 and recorded volumes of over 2.2mn shares on NSE.
On the other hand, shares of Reliance Industries slipped by 1.7% to Rs1747 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs1765 and a low of Rs1718 and recorded volumes of over 1mn shares on BSE.
Sterlite Technologies announced that it won a contract from BSNL, worth Rs3.72bn for enabling a Fiber-to-the-Home Network based on Gigabit Passive Optical Network technology.
The stock was down 4.5% to Rs163 after it hit an intra-day high of Rs168 and a low of Rs162 and recorded volumes of over 0.1mn shares on BSE.
Shares of Pantaloon Retail bounced by sharply from its day’s low and ended 1.2% higher at Rs269 after the company announced that June total sales rose by 18.5% at Rs6.65bn YoY.
Shares of Sun Pharma gained by 2.5% to Rs1149 after reports stated that the company along with its subsidiary, Caraco reached a settlement agreement with Forest Laboratories and licensing partner H Lundbeck AS, over a pending patent infringement dispute. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1158 and a low of Rs1103 and recorded volumes of over 22,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of BGR Energy gained by 5% to Rs278 after the company announced that it secured a turnkey EPC of Balance of Plant contract worth Rs16.31bn from Maharashtra Power Generation Corporation for execution of the 2X500 MW Chandrapur Super Thermal Power Station Expansion Project at Chandrapur, Maharashtra.
The contract will be completed over 33 months. The BOP contract scope includes Design, Engineering, Supply, Erection, Testing and Commissioning of all Balance of Plant Mechanical, Electrical and Civil and structural works for the Main plant and BOP.