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Monday, October 05, 2009

Grey skies, blue bulls!


In the sky, there is no distinction of east and west; people create distinctions out of their own minds and then believe them to be true.

Monday morning blues are back. Just when one thought the monsoon was over, comes the bolt from the blue. Unexpected stormy weather has been wrecking havoc in South and West India. Although the torrential rains have brought some relief from searing heat, the timing is unwarranted. This is not good news in a year when the overall farm output is likely to take a hit and food inflation is already pretty high. It will be interesting to see what stand the Government and the RBI take to tackle spiraling prices.

We expect a soft opening due to weak global cues. US stocks fell last week owing to disappointing economic reports, particularly on the jobs front. The big catalyst in the near term will be the quarterly earnings, both here and overseas. What most players are looking for is whether the results will justify the market euphoria. We are inclined to believe there would be more positive surprises. Brace for some more volatility after a six-and-a-month rally. Investors could well be wondering if a bigger selloff is on the cards, but any selling is unlikely to be a sharp one.

RCOM's leadership team is scheduled to announce strategic and progressive development to recent events.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs9.76bn in the cash segment on Thursday on a provisional basis. The local funds were net sellers of Rs3.31bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs358.6mn. On Wednesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs15.08bn in the cash segment. The net FII investments in Indian stocks this year have crossed $12bn.

US stocks closed lower on Friday, capping second successive week of losses, as investors worried that a worse-than-expected jobs report was further evidence that the rally has run ahead of improvement in fundamentals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.61 or 0.23% to 9,487.67 while the S&P 500 index was down 4.64 or 0.45% to 1,025.21 and the Nasdaq Composite index shed 9.37 or 0.46% to 2,048.11.

Since the rally highs were hit, US stocks have lost about 5%. Stocks may need to ease further over the next few weeks, but the pullback would be sufficient to bring buyers back in to push the market higher.

US stocks got hammered on Thursday after weaker-than-expected readings on manufacturing and jobless claims sparked worries about the pace of the economic recovery. The Dow closed down 204 points.

Stocks are also vulnerable to a bit of selling after a strong July through September period in which the Dow and S&P 500 both jumped 15%, their biggest quarterly gains in more than a decade. The Nasdaq gained 15.7%, its best quarterly performance since 2003.

The advance was part of a bigger run up that has propelled the leading US indexes for roughly seven months straight. The advance has been driven by slowly improving economic news and tremendous amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

But lately, a number of the reports have been missing expectations, including readings on jobs, manufacturing and consumer confidence earlier this week.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 51.2%, and the Dow has gained 45% as of Friday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained nearly 61%.

Employers cut 263,000 jobs from their payrolls in September after cutting a revised 201,000 in August, the Labor Department reported Friday morning. Economists were expecting 175,000 jobs cuts, on average.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 9.8%, a 26-year high. That was in line with economists' forecasts and up from the 9.7% rate in August. Most economists expect the national unemployment rate to hit 10% by year end, although in a number of states it is much higher.

A separate government report showed that factory orders plunged in August versus forecasts for a rise. The Commerce Department said factory orders fell 0.8% versus forecasts for a flat reading. Factory orders rose 1.4% in the previous month.

Troubled lender CIT launched a debt-exchange plan as part of its efforts to restructure and avoid bankruptcy. But the company said if the plan is not successful, it will likely file for Chapter 11 protection.

Apple shares gained after both Morgan Stanley and UBS issued bullish notes on the company's forecast.

The dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen, resuming its recent plunge against a basket of currencies.

US light crude oil for October delivery fell 87 cents to settle at $69.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $3.60 to settle at $1,004.30 an ounce. Gold closed at a record high of $1,020.20 two weeks ago.

Treasury prices tiptoed higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.21% from 3.18% late on Thursday.

Global markets tumbled. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 1.2%, France's CAC 40 lost 1.9% and Germany's DAX lost 1.5%. Asian markets declined as well, with the Japanese Nikkei losing 2.5%.

Indian markets ended in the green extending gains for second straight trading session. The strong upswing was seen despite overnight losses on Wall Street and weak cues from the Asian markets.

The opening moments of today’s session was indeed dominated more by Oil Indias listing. However, as the day progressed the buying spree spread all over Dalal-Street. Bulls were on a roll led by the banking, Auto, Capital Goods and Metal stocks. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks were in demand.

However, the FMCG and select Consumer Durables stocks were under selling pressure.

Heavyweights like SBI, ICICI Bank, Maruti and M&M lifted the Sensex and Nifty to end at new 52-week high.

The BSE Sensex surged 274 points or 1.6% at 17,126 after touching a high of 17,143 and a low of 16,868. The index opened at 16,868 against the previous close of 16,853. The NSE Nifty added 77 points to shut shop at 5,084.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan was up 0.3%, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended lower by 0.2% at 4,743. Shanghai SE Composite in China was up by 0.9% at 2,779. However, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong ended lower by 0.3% at 20,955.

In Europe, stocks were in the green. The FTSE in the UK was up 0.6%, The DAX in Germany was up 0.5% and the CAC 40 index in France added 0.6%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Bankex index was the top gainer, adding 3.7%, followed by the Auto index that was up 2% and the BSE Capital Goods index was up 1.8%.

Among the major losers were, BSE FMCG index down 0.5% and BSE Consumer Durable index marginally down 0.3%.

The BSE Mid-Cap index gained 1% and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 1%.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 26 stocks ended in the green and 4 ended in the negative terrain. Among the major gainers were SBI, ICICI Bank, Maruti, M&M, Sterlite and Wipro.

On the other hand, ONGC, ITC, Grasim and Bharti Airtel were among the major laggards.

Outside the frontline indices, the big gainers in the broader market were Central Bank, Bhushan Steel, BEL, OBC, IOB and UCO Bank. On the other hand, losers included REI Agro, Marico, GSPL, MRPL and Dabur.

Shares of Oil India which began trading on the Indian bourses at Rs1,105 per share finally ended recording healthy gains. The stock surged to end at Rs1140 translating into a premium of 8.5%

The initial public offer of Oil India had received robust response, it got subscribed nearly 31 times, generating demand for shares worth over Rs855.76bn.

The portion reserved for qualified institutional buyers got subscribed 54 times, while the non-institutional and retail investors bid for 9.77 times and 114 times respectively of the shares on offer.

Shares of Wockhordt Pharma shot up by over 7.5% to Rs194 after the company received tentative approval from the US FDA for marketing the 0.4mg capsules of Tamsulosin Hydrochloride, which is used for treating Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH or non-cancerous enlargement of prostate).

Tamsulosin is the generic name for the brand Flomax, marketed in the United States by Boehringer Ingeiheirn. The patent on this product will expire on April 27. 2010 and Wockhardt will launch the product immediately thereafter.

The stock opened at Rs184 and made an intra-day high of Rs197 and a low of Rs183. Total traded volumes stood at 0.3mn shares.

BHEL won an order worth Rs2.7bn for a 120 MW Cogeneration Power Plant, to be set up at Grodno in Belarus, has been received from Grodnoenergo, which is a state enterprise of Republic of Belarus.

Shares of BHEL gained by 2.3% to Rs2325. The stock opened at Rs2279 and made an intra-day high of Rs2334 and a low of Rs2279. Total traded volumes stood at 0.14mn shares.

Shares of L&T gained by 2.2% to Rs1683 after reports stated that the company was planning to raise US$600mn from institutions through equity issuance. Reports also stated that the company has developed expertise to manufacture nuclear power plants of 3,000-4,000MW says Chairman, AM Naik.

Reliance Communications & Microsoft have entered into a strategic partnership to offer Windows Mobile Solution on Reliance’s wireless networks.

According to this agreement, Microsoft will offer its productivity solutions to Reliance customers including push email support, chat, photo-sharing, content back-up and other applications.

Shares of RCom gained 3% to end at Rs308. The stock opened at Rs300 and made an intra-day high of Rs310 and a low of Rs299. Total traded volumes stood at 2.4mn shares.

Siemens bagged two orders from Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd amounting to Rs3.6bn for turnkey 756KV substations each at Gaya in Bihar and Ranchi in Jharkhand. The projects will be commissioned in 27 months.

Shares of Siemens edged higher by 0.5% to Rs557. The stock opened at Rs555 and made an intra-day high of Rs561 and a low of Rs550. Total traded volumes stood at 0.14mn shares.

HCC signed a MoU with the international engineering and project management company AMEC plc (AMEC) to jointly explore the application of consulting and EPC services for the establishment of nuclear power plants in India.

The stock gained 1% to end at Rs131.5, it opened at Rs131 and made an intra-day high of Rs133 and a low of Rs128. Total traded volumes stood at 1.7mn shares.