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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Fears roll over!


Nothing is wasted, nothing is in vain, the seas roll over but the rocks remain.

A year has passed by after the tragedy in Mumbai. The city and the market have moved on in what is often summed up as the indomitable spirit. It’s Thanksgiving on every street for the bulls. November series has seen some good long positions. The Nifty December series is showing a long build-up after it closed at 12 points premium to the spot.

We expect a flat open with no clear signals from the global markets. The usual choppiness associated with the F&O expiry will be there though the bias remains mostly positive. Asian markets are mixed. A bigger-than-expected drop in weekly jobless claims added some cheer to US markets, which will remain closed today for Thanksgiving and have a truncated session on Friday.

Stock exchanges may put their plans to extend trading hours on the back-burner following lack of consensus. The only consensus for now seems to be that indices will hit a new year-high in December series. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 32% this year while the S&P 500 is up 23%.


Index heavyweights like Reliance will hog the limelight for the day. The rising market is also bringing in illiquid stocks back into trade, some after a decade. Avoid these counters.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 0.5% yesterday. Sales of new homes rose last month to the highest level in 13 months, while the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest since September 2008. Spending by US consumers increased more in October than expected.

Other headlines in the media include:

ITC could see action as it is rethinking with respect to its approach on equity in EIH, which would mean making a counter offer or selling its stake.

Infotech Enterprises is planning to acquire two companies in the US by the end of this financial year worth US$10mn to US$20mn each.

IDBI Bank could gain on reports that the bank has identified a potential merger target.

Infosys, is set to hire 20,000 people in FY11.

TCS expects to clock Rs5bn revenue from the domestic banking business over the next one year.

Sugar Mills in Uttar Pradesh agree to pay Rs25 a quintal of sugarcane above the SAP as incentive.

The 13th Finance Commission is understood to have arrived at a revenue-neutral rate of around12% for the proposed GST.

The Centre's plan to create country’s first strategic reserve for crude oil has run into a regulatory hurdle as the finance ministry has refused SEZ status to the project.

With F&O expiry just a day away, traders stayed on the sidelines as the key indices moved in a narrow range for the entire day.

The Nifty hit a one-month high of 5,137 in the early afternoon trades but profit booking brought the index lower from day's high towards the close of the day.

The BSE Sensex ended a listless trading day at 17,199, up 68 points or 0.4% from the previous close. The NSE Nifty gained 18 points or 0.4% to close at 5111.55.

Among the index heavyweights, Reliance Industries rose 1% to close at Rs2,196 after the company re-opened retail fuel outlets. Maruti advanced further by 2% to Rs1,629 on expectations of pick up in sales this month. Hero Honda, ITC, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were among the top gainers.

Cairn, R Com, Reliance Infra and Suzlon were among the top losers within the index.

Outside the main indices, the big gainers in the broader market were Mastek, NESCO, KPIT Cummins and Orchid Chemicals. On the other hand, losers included Maytas Infra, Motherson Sumi, Indiabulls Real Estate and Tech Mahindra.

Among the sectoral indices, FMCG, Oil and Gas, PSU and Bankex gained by 1% each. Realty and pharma indices were among the major losers.

The BSE Mid-Cap index ended lower by 0.10% while the BSE Small-Cap index was down by 0.12 %.

Shares of oil marketing companies surged smartly after US light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.11 to settle at $76.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. BPCL rose 6% to Rs575, IOC gained 3% to Rs297 and HPCL was up by 3% to Rs359.

Shares of Uttar Pradesh-based sugar companies rose on Wednesday after the state's sugar mill association signed an agreement with the sugarcane farmers on the price for the ongoing season (October-September 2009-10).

Sugar producers with mills in Uttar Pradesh, India's biggest cane-growing state, will pay growers Rs190 rupees per quintal (100 kilograms), ending a dispute that caused a month-long delay to the start of the season. The price fixed is broadly in line with expectations.

Balrampur Chini was up 1% at Rs135, Bajaj Hindusthan gained 5% to Rs223, Triveni Engineering was up 2% at Rs106 and Dhampur Sugar advanced 4% to Rs134.

US stocks ended a volatile session with modest losses on Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve's improved outlook and some signs of improvement in housing tempered a weaker revision on economic growth released in the morning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 17 points, or 0.2%, to 10,433.71. The Dow ended the previous session at its highest level since Oct. 2, 2008. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 7 points, or 0.3%, to 2,169.18 while the S&P 500 index was barely changed, at 1,105.65.