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Monday, January 05, 2009

Idea Cellular


Idea Cellular

Futures Options - Jan 5 2009


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NALCO


NALCO

India Investment Strategy - Jan 2009


India Investment Strategy - Jan 2009

Monthly Recommendations - Jan 2009


Monthly Recommendations - Jan 2009

India Stimulus Package 2009


India Stimulus Package 2009

India Market Outlook 2009


India Market Outlook 2009

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 5 2009


Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
5/1/2009 532946 BANG MARUTI SECURITIES LTD. S 90000 156.00
5/1/2009 533026 CHEMCEL NEW PLANET TRADING CO PVT LTD S 155400 2.90
5/1/2009 531358 CHOIC INTERN FREA STATIONERY PRIVATE LTD B 100000 6.54
5/1/2009 531358 CHOIC INTERN TENET BIO PHARMA PVT LTD S 120000 6.54
5/1/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA ANGEL INFIN PRIVATE LIMITED B 81795 30.54
5/1/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA ANGEL INFIN PRIVATE LIMITED S 80795 30.94
5/1/2009 511092 JMD TELEFILM ADITI SHIVCHARAN AGRAWAL S 50000 18.25
5/1/2009 517569 KEI INDUSTRI ARVIND DANABHAI DESAI S 320000 14.95
5/1/2009 526045 LUMINAI TECH JITENDRA SHAH S 140301 3.67
5/1/2009 512047 NATRAJ FIN KAMLESHKUMAR AGRAWAL B 31750 31.86
5/1/2009 512047 NATRAJ FIN ANURAGSABOO S 30000 31.70
5/1/2009 526407 RIT PRO IND SUBHASH CHANDER KHANJEJA S 179172 28.10
5/1/2009 532543 SAHPETROLEUM JAIDEEP HALWASIYA B 160000 39.33
5/1/2009 532543 SAHPETROLEUM COLUMBIA BIOFUELS PVT. LTD. B 170000 39.75
5/1/2009 532543 SAHPETROLEUM RATNABALI CAPITAL MARKETS LTD. S 580000 39.65
5/1/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD MERULANDS HEATHCARE REMEDIES PVT LTD B 100000 6.99
5/1/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD KHAITAN WEAVING MILLS LTD S 75179 6.99
5/1/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD COMFORT INTECH LIMITED S 146373 6.87
5/1/2009 507446 SIMBHAOL SU C M JAIN IMPEX AND INVESTMENTS PVT LTD S 150000 21.70
5/1/2009 524576 VIVID CHEMIC NITA ASHOK GANDHI S 25691 1.53
5/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA GANDHI MANISHA NAVNEETLAL S 23635 29.25
5/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA SAMIR S SHAH S 54250 29.25
5/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA PANNA DILIPSINH BAROT S 23002 29.25

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - Jan 5 2009


Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
05-JAN-2009,ASIANELEC,Asian Electronics Ltd,YUVAK SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,BUY,142838,29.17,-
05-JAN-2009,HDIL,Housing Development and I,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,1376469,144.00,-
05-JAN-2009,INDUSFILA,Indus Fila Limited,ARISTRO FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD,BUY,100000,43.00,-
05-JAN-2009,KOHINOOR,Kohinoor Foods Limited,M/S TRANSWORLD FINVEST PVT LTD,BUY,137332,95.86,-
05-JAN-2009,MAHABANK,Bank of Maharashtra,GOVERDHAN EXPORTS Ltd.,BUY,647828,27.06,-
05-JAN-2009,ASIANELEC,Asian Electronics Ltd,YUVAK SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,SELL,153570,28.99,-
05-JAN-2009,HDIL,Housing Development and I,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,1387091,144.05,-
05-JAN-2009,INDUSFILA,Indus Fila Limited,SAAKSHI SHARES PVT LTD,SELL,100576,43.00,-
05-JAN-2009,KEI,KEI Industries Limited,ANAND KAMALNAYAN PANDIT,SELL,320000,14.94,-
05-JAN-2009,KOHINOOR,Kohinoor Foods Limited,M/S TRANSWORLD FINVEST PVT LTD,SELL,705,94.52,-
05-JAN-2009,MAHABANK,Bank of Maharashtra,GOVERDHAN EXPORTS Ltd.,SELL,2189828,26.48,-
05-JAN-2009,PSTL,Pyramid Saimira Theatre L,PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK,SELL,227250,39.14,-

Post Session Commentary - Jan 5 2009


The Indian market continued its last week''s rally and surged more than 2% today following deep rate cuts by the central bank and measures by the government to boost growth. RBI cut the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to and both the Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 100 basis points respectively. The announcement of the second fiscal stimulus package by the government to revitalize the economy amounting to Rs 20,000 crore also contributed to the positive sentiments. In addition to this, Firm global markets also added gains on the domestic bourses.

The domestic market opened sharply higher on the back of the RBI’s move to cut rates and the government’s second stimulus package. These steps led positive sentiments as inventers believe that it may help to ease the overseas borrowings, which will bring the liquidity into the system. Further, stocks continued to trade in positive territory with a bout of volatility. During the last trading hours, market extended its gains to climb sharply as buying momentum lifted up. BSE Sensex breached the psychological 10,000 mark and ended above 10,200 level along with NSE Nifty above 3,100 level. From the sectoral front, Investors on-loaded positions across the sectors and Metal and Oil & Gas stocks outperformed the benchmark indices as ended with gains of more than 5%. Apart from that, most of the buying was observed in Bank, Capital Goods, IT, PSU and Power stocks. Midcap and Smallcap stocks also joined the rally. However, Reality, and FMCG stocks remained out of favor as witnessed most of the selling from these baskets.

Among the Sensex pack 23 stocks ended in green territory and 7 in red. The market breadth was positive as 1680 stocks closed in green while 859 stocks closed in red and 74 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 317.38 points at 10,275.60 and NSE Nifty ended up by 74.70 points at 3,121.45. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with gains of 60.46 points and 46.92 points at 3,451.64 and 3,917.37 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,306.17 and intraday low of 10,069.11.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Sterlite In (9.82%), Tata Power (7.76%), JP Associates (7.49%), Tata Steel (6.73%), ONGC Ltd (6.43%), Reliance (6.38%), ICICI Bank (6.04%), Reliance Infra (5.55%), HDFC (5.40%), RCom (5.35%) and Hindalco (4.11%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Satyam Computer (6.00%), Bharti Airtel (2.76%), DLF Ltd (1.60%), NTPC Ltd (1.60%), HUL (1.58%), ITC (1.46%) and Ranbaxy Lab (0.18%).

The Reserve Bank of India slashed its key rates after the market hours on Friday. The Central bank cut the Repo rate by 100 basis points to 4% along with reverse Repo rate by 100 basis points to 5.5% and Cash Reserve Ration (CRR) by 50 basis points to 5%. The cut in CRR will infuse Rs 20,000 crore in the system.

The government has drawn Rs 20,000 crore recapitalization plan for the next two years in order to ensure that the banking system will not suffer from capital adequacy constraints. The package also provides for liberalization of norms for External Commercial Borrowing and raising FII investment limit in rupee-denominated instruments from the current $6 bn to $15 bn. In a view to revive the economy, the package will facilitate the funding of pending highways and port projects of about Rs 25,000 crore. However, the India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) is being enabled to access additional Rs 30,000 crore by tax-free bonds in order to finance additional projects worth Rs 75,000 crore over the next 18 months.

The BSE Metal index advanced by (5.54%) or 307.84 points to close at 5,869.08 as Sterlite In (9.82%), Hindustan Zinc (8.24%), Jindal Saw (7.15%), Steel Authority (6.97%), Tata Steel (6.73%) and Jindal Steel (5.50%) ended in green.

The BSE Oil & Gas index gained (5.10%) or 318.23 points to close at 6,559.66 as ONGC Ltd (6.43%), Reliance (6.38%), Cairn Ind (5.78%), Aban Offshore (3.92%), Gail India (3.03%) and Reliance Pet (2.38%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Bank index ended higher by (3.53%) or 200.56 points at 5,874.87. Gainers are Indus Ind Bank (9.80%), Yes Bank (8.29%), Canara Bank (6.86%), ICICI Bank (6.04%) and Oriental Bank (5.02%).

The BSE Capital Goods index ended up by (2.83%) or 206.42 points at 7,493.25. Major gainers are Kalpat Power T (13.76%), Lakshmi MA W (9.47%), BEML Ltd (7.25%), Thermax Ltd (7.21%), Havell’s India (5.56%) and Usha Martin (5.30%).

The BSE FMCG index ended down by (0.53%) or 10.58 points at 1,996.03. Major losers are Marico Ltd (2.33%), HUL (1.58%), Tata Tea Ltd (0.89%), Godraj Cons (0.74%) and Colgate Palm (0.43%).

The BSE Reality index ended lower by (0.33%) or 8.23 points at 2,464.28. Main losers are Penland Ltd (3.44%), Mahindra Life (1.83%), DLF Ltd (1.60%), Omaxe Ltd (1.19%), Parsvnath (0.47%) and Sobha Dev (0.39%).

New year binge continues


Maintaining its upward trend since the New year, Sensex opened on a firm note at 10,110 and rallied further on substantial buying in metal and oil stocks. Despite slowdown in foreign institutional investors’ inflows, Sensex rallied further to touch an intra-day high of 10,306 on substantial buying support. Market remained firm above 10,100-level for the entire trading session, as firm Asian and European indices kept investor mood upbeat. However, profit booking at higher levels dragged the index to its day's low of 10,069, above 111 points its previous close. The market recovered in afternoon but Sensex shed some of its profits towards the close. Sensex finally wrapped up the session with a gain of 317 points at 10,276. Nifty gained 75 points to close at 3,121.



Among sectoral indices, BSE Metal led the upsurge with 5.54% gains followed by BSE Oil (up 5.10%), BSE Bankex (up 3.53%) and BSE CG (up 2.83%). Market breadth was extremely positive. Of 2,613 stocks traded on BSE 1,661 stocks advanced, whereas 878 stocks declined. Seventy-four stocks ended unchanged.



Out of 30 Sensex stocks, 23 managed to end in the green while 7 stocks ended in the red. Sterlite Industries was the lead gainer, soaring 10.93% for the day to Rs305. Tata Power jumped 7.87% at Rs831, Tata Steel shot up by 7.71% at Rs247.35, ONGC advanced 7.66% at Rs732.15, JP Associates moved up by 7.27% at Rs93.75, Reliance Industries added 6.93% at Rs1372.90 and ICICI Bank gained 5.92% at Rs499.10. Among laggards, Satyam Computer Services was the major loser and dropped 6% at Rs166.90, while Bharti Airtel, DLF, NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Ranbaxy Laboratories slipped marginally.


Over 3.17 crore shares of Unitech changed hands on BSE followed by IFCI (2.50 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.87 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.29 crore shares) and Satyam Computer Services (1.12 crore shares).

RIL, banking, metal shares lead 3.2% Sensex surge


Coordinated fiscal and monetary measures by policymakers to boost sagging growth and firm global markets boosted the domestic bourses, with the barometer index, the BSE 30-share Sensex, breaching the psychological 10,000 mark. The Sensex vaulted 317.38 points, or 3.19%.

But the market was volatile. After opening on a firm note, the market pared gains at the onset of the trading session. It bounced back again shortly and witnessed a bout of volatility later. After a 2.34% rally in afternoon trade triggered by a firm opening of the European markets, the market pared gains in mid-afternoon trade. The market spurted in the last half-an-hour of trade.

Though the Sensex had breached the 10,000 market in intraday trade on Friday, 2 January 2009, it had ended below that level.

Bank stocks rose on speculation falling bond yields and lower rates would accelerate loan growth and profitability. Metal stocks rose after the government withdrew exemptions from countervailing duty on TMT bars, used in construction activity, and withdrew exemption from basic customs duty on zinc and ferro alloys, which was provided earlier to contain inflation.

Shares of commercial vehicle makes rose as the government's second stimulus announced after trading hours on Friday, 2 January 2009, comprised measures to boost sagging truck and bus sales in India. Infrastructure stocks rose after the government unveiled steps to make availability of funds to infrastructure projects.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after trading hours on Friday, 2 January 2009, cut the repo rate and the reverse repo rate by 100 basis points each, with immediate effect. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks and reverse repo rate is the rate at which RBI accepts deposits from banks. After the latest cuts, the repo rate is now at 5.5% and the reverse repo is now at 4%, the lowest ever.

The RBI also announced a cut in cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits banks must keep with the central bank, by 50 basis points to 5% with effect from 17 January 2009. Lower interest rates may revive the domestic economy which has been slowing faster than expected due to high interest rates and the global financial crisis.

Complementing monetary easing by the RBI, the government enhanced the spending power of states with specific measures to boost credit availability in the second fiscal stimulus package. It offered additional sops to exporters and the small-scale sector, besides raising the level of protection for cement and steel sectors a tad. It has also incentivised purchase of commercial vehicles.

Credit availability has been hiked in a variety of ways, the interest ceiling on external commercial borrowings has been removed; the cap on foreign institutional investments in the domestic corporate debt market has been jacked up two-and-a-half times from $6 billion to $15 billion; a special purpose vehicle is being created to lend to non-banking finance companies to the tune of Rs 25,000 crore; Indian Infrastructure Finance Company is being permitted to raise another Rs 30,000 crore by means of tax-free bonds, and states are allowed to borrow an additional Rs 30,000 crore from the market.

In addition, public sector banks would be given additional capital to the extent of Rs 20,000 crore over the next two years, so they can lend roughly 10 times as much additionally.

The latest measures, which come in less than a month after the first package was unveiled on 7 December 2008 are aimed at benefiting housing and non-banking finance firms that lend to infrastructure and finance commercial vehicles.

Firm global markets supported the domestic bourses. European shares gained on Monday, with higher crude prices boosting energy heavyweights and US President-elect Barack Obama's plans for tax cuts fuelling optimism. Key benchmark indices in Germany, France and UK were up by between 0.11% to 0.52%.

Asian stocks surged on hopes big government stimulus spending packages around the world will help revive growth. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China and Taiwan were up by between 1.4% to 5.2%.

US stocks started the new year with a big jump as investors looked beyond yet another piece of grim economic data on hopes that a recovery is on the horizon after a disastrous 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 258.30, or 2.94% to 9,034.69 on 2 January 2009, the first trading day of the new calendar year. The market shrugged off a report by the Institute for Supply Management that said US factory activity fell to a 28-year low in December 2008, showing a more severe contraction than economists had expected.

Many market players are looking for a large US spending package and tax cuts to help support the world's largest economy. Obama will meet later on Monday, 2 January 2009, with senior Congressional leaders to discuss the plan. As per reports, about 40% of Obama's economic package worth as much as $775 billion would be in the form of tax breaks for businesses and the middle class.

The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 317.38 points, or 3.19%, to 10,275.60. The Sensex rose 347.95 points at the day's high of 10,306.17 in late trade. The Sensex rose 110.89 points at the day's low of 10,069.11 in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty rose 74.70 points, or 2.45%, to 3,121.45.

The BSE Sensex clocked a turnover of Rs 4,171 crore, lower than Rs 4,279.80 on Friday, 2 January 2009.

Nifty January 2009 futures were at 3133, at a premium of 11.55 points as compared to the spot closing of 3121.45. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment rose to Rs 34,219.31 crore, from Rs 31,631.68 crore on Friday, 2 January 2009.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.78%, while BSE Small-Cap index was up 1.21%. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Metal index (up 5.54%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 5.1%), the BSE Bankex (up 3.53%) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE FMCG index (down 0.53%), the BSE Realty index (down 0.33%), the BSE HealthCare index (up 0.05%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.21%), the BSE Auto index (up 1.3%), the BSE Teck index (up 1.46%), the BSE Power index (up 1.75%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.78%), the BSE IT index (up 2.4%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 2.83%), underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Sensex has risen 946.68 points or 10.14% from a recent low of 9,328.92 on 26 December 2008.

As per the provisional data on BSE, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 469.56 crore while domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 220.82 crore today, 5 Janaury 2008.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,680 stocks advanced and 859 stocks fell. A total of 74 stocks remained unchanged.

Jaiprakash Associates, Tata Power Company, Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Infrastructure rose by between 3.87% to 7.76%.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) jumped 6.38% to Rs 1,365.75 as global crude oil prices climbed amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Higher oil prices would boost RIL's refining margins. Late last month, its unit Reliance Petroleum (RPL) started processing crude at its 5,80,000 barrels per day refinery. From the recent low of Rs 1,230.25 on 31 December 2008 the stock jumped 11.01%.

India's largest state-run oil exploration firm by revenues ONGC jumped 6.43% on rally in crude oil prices. But the oil price surge weighed on PSU OMCs. BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil Corporation fell by between 0.58% to 1.59%. Oil prices rose above $47 a barrel Monday in Asia as a ground offensive by Israeli troops against Hamas militants in Gaza heightened tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.36 to $47.70 a barrel, after earlier jumping toState-run oil marketing firms suffer losses on domestic sale of LPG and kerosene at a controlled price. They are making profit on sale of petrol and diesel thanks to a sharp fall in crude prices over the past few months.

India's largest drug maker by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories fell 0.18% after Japan's third-largest drugmaker, Daiichi Sankyo Co, said on Monday it would book an appraisal loss of 359.5 billion yen ($3.9 billion) on a parent-company basis on its stake in Ranbaxy Laboratories. Daiichi Sankyo paid nearly 500 billion yen for a 63.9% stake it acquired in the major generic drug maker last year.

India's largest telecom services provider by sales Bharti Airtel slipped 2.76% on concerns the company may reduce tariffs to retain costumers following an aggressive nationwide rollover of the GSM-based cellular services by Reliance Communication (RCom), India's second India's second largest telecom services provider by sales. RCom was up 5.35%.

Steel stocks surged in late trade after the government withdrew exemptions from countervailing duty on TMT bars, used in construction activity. Bhushan Steel, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Steel Authority of India, Jindal Steel rose by between 1.61% to 6.97%.

India's largest zinc maker by sales Hindustan Zinc rose 8.24% after the government withdrew exemption from basic customs duty on zinc.

Other metal stocks, Hindalco Industries, Sterlite Industries and National Aluminum Company rose by between 1.62% to 9.82%.

Banking shares advanced on speculation falling bond yields and lower rates would accelerate loan growth and profitability. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 6.04% after its American depository receipt (ADR) rose 7.06% on Friday, 2 January 2009. The bank had recently cut its main lending rates by 50 basis points.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 2.66% as its ADR gained 7.5% on Friday. India's biggest bank in terms of total assets and branch network, State Bank of India, gained 2.35%.

Allahabad Bank rose 2.47% after the bank cut benchmark prime lending rate by 75 basis points from 13.25% to 12.50%. Union Bank of India rose 2.7% after bank on 3 January 2009 announced a reduction in deposit rates ranging between 25 and 75 basis points across various maturities. This will pave the way for the bank to lower lending rates also.

Bank of Baroda rose 2.32% after bank on 3 January 2009 announced a reduction in deposit rates ranging between 25 and 75 basis points across various maturities. This will pave the way for the bank to lower lending rates also.

India's largest dedicated housign finance firm by operating income HDFC rose 5.4%.

IFCI galloped 13.15% after a block deal of 6.06 lakh shares was executed on NSE at Rs 25.50 a share.

Future Capital Holdings spurted 10.68% after the company acquired non-banking financial firm Black Diamond Finance.

IT pivotals gained on hopes a large government stimulus package may help revive the US economy. India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys gained 3.85% as its ADR rose 2.36% on Friday. India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro rose 1.13% as its ADR rose 3.2% on Friday. India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services rose 3.56%. IT firms derive a lion's share of revenue from export to the US.

But India's fourth largest IT exporter by sales Satyam Computer Services fell 6% on reports the company's management and some of its institutional investors are reportedly exploring a merger with another software firm. Meanwhile, the stake owned in Satyam Computer Services by SRSR Holdings, which was floated by founders, has fallen to 5.13% from 8.27% in November 2008, the company said on Friday (2 January 2009).

GTL soared 5.37% on share buyback plan.

Commercial vehicle makers rose as the government's second stimulus announced after trading hours on Friday, 2 January 2009, comprised measures to boost sagging truck and bus sales in India. India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors rose 2.05% while India's second largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Ashok Leyland rose 0.93%.

Other Auto stocks, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki India rose by between 2.35% to 3.15% on hopes rate cuts would spur demand for vehicles which is mainly driven by finance.

Infrastructure stocks rose on government's effort to prop up the sector. Era Infra Engineering, Valecha Engineering, Hindustan Construction Company and Gammon India rose by between 0.76% to 7.54%.

Ahluwalia Contracts hit 5% upper circuit after it received orders worth Rs 394 crore, which includes construction of depots at Delhi and Mumbai and the building work for Tata Medical Centre in Kolkata.

India Infrastructure Finance Company (IIFCL), which has already been authorized to raise Rs 10,000 crore through tax free bonds by 31 March 2009 for refinancing bank lending of longer maturity to eligible infrastructure bid based public-private partnership projects, will be accessing the market next week for raising the first tranche of the amount. This will enable the funding of mainly highways and port projects on hand of about Rs 25000 crore.

To fund additional projects of about Rs 75,000 crore at competitive rates over the next 18 months, IIFCL will be allowed access in tranches an additional Rs.30,000 crores by way of tax free bonds once funds raised in the current year are effectively utilized.

Under the second stimulus package for the economy unveiled by the government Friday, 2 January 2009, the centre will provide assistance to states for purchase of buses for their urban transport systems under the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewable Mission till 30 June 2009.

Further, public sector banks will offer a special line of credit to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) for truck and bus financing which will reduce the credit crush being faced by NBFCs. This may boost sales of trucks and buses. Additionally, the government has also announced accelerated depreciation of 50% for commercial vehicles bought from 1 January 2009 to 31 March 2009.

Cement stocks rose after the government reinstated the countervailing duty on structural cement which will help protect the domestic industry from cheaper imports. ACC, Ambuja Cements rose by between 1.52% to 2.55%.

Grasim Industries rose 1.65% while UltraTech Cement fell 1.45% after Aditya Birla Group said on Friday (2 January 2009) cement dispatches rose 13.4% to 2.98 million tones in December 2008 over December 2007. The group's cement business includes flagship Grasim Industries and UltraTech Cement, with combined production capacity of 35 million tonnes a year.

Realty shares were mixed amid hopes steep rate cuts by the RBI and sops provided by the government in the second stimulus package may help boost housing demand. Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech rose by between 1.15% to 2.59%. DLF and Housing Development & Infrastructure fell by between 0.49% to 1.6%. While

In an effort to boost the cash-starved realty sector, the government on 2 January 2009 allowed the developers of integrated townships to borrow funds from overseas and also asked states to release land for low- and middle-income housing schemes. Earlier, as part of the first stimulus package announced last month, the public sector banks had lowered rates on home loans up to Rs 20 lakh

Unitech clocked the highest volume of 3.18 crore shares on BSE. IFCI (2.5 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.87 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.3 crore shares) and Satyam Computer Services (1.12 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 292.58 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 193.16 crore), Satyam Computer Services (Rs 189.14 crore), Unitech (Rs 152.12 crore) and DLF (Rs 146.74 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Pre Session Commentary - Jan 5 2009


Today the markets are likely to open positive as the government on Friday evening announced its much awaited second stimulus package. In the second stimulus package NBFCs have been given an additional package of Rs 25,000 crore and the ECB norms have also been relaxed. The total financial package that the two stimulus would inject into the financial system is estimated to be Rs 3,00,000 crore. After the continuous softening of the inflation rates, RBI has cut CRR by 50 basis points to 5% and repo and reverse rate by 100 bps. The repo rate has been cut to 5.5% and the reverse repo has been cut to 4%. The LAF measures would pump Rs 20k crore into the system. The Asian markets are also trading firm with a positive trend. The macro economic sentiments are good and therefore we expect the markets to trade positive with a firm trend.

On Friday, the markets opened positive but turned choppy. However after the post mid session the sentiments remained high and therefore markets managed to close in green. The expectation of a fiscal package from the government was seen in the trade. This was the fourth day in the week when the markets showed some firmness despite global cues. Sensex and Nifty gained 0.55% and 0.44% respectively. Amidst expectations of a rate cut from RBI, rate sensitive sectors like CD, Realty and Bankex gained 2.44%, 2.07% and 1.60% respectively. During the session we expect the markets to be trading with a firm positive trend.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 54.76 points at 9,958.22 and NSE Nifty ended higher by 13.30 points at 3,046.75. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with gains of 72.08 points and 60.04 points at 3,391.18 and 3,870.45 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,070 and intraday low of 9,863.86.

On Friday, the US Markets closed in green. Despite lack of good news the markets showed phenomenal positive trade. All the major stocks encountered a bit of selling pressure in the first few minutes of action, but spent the rest of the session trending higher. Each of the major indices also finished near session highs. Energy stocks witnessed the biggest gains, closing 4.3% higher after oil prices reversed early losses. Such economic weakness was reflected in the worst ISM manufacturing reading since June 1980. The December reading came in at 32.4%. A number below 50% indicates a contraction. Crude oil futures for the month of February delivery rose $1.74 to $46.34 per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract earlier hit an intraday low of $41.05 a barrel in electronic trading. The crude futures rose to their highest in three weeks on concerns that Russia''s move to cut off natural gas to Ukraine could affect European energy supplies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed high with 258.30 points at 9,034.69 NASDAQ index gained 55.18 points at 1,632.21 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed higher by 28.55 points to close at 931.80 points.

Indian ADRs ended positive. In technology sector, Infosys gained by 2.36% and Wipro gained by 3.20%, further Satyam ended with a loss of 0.66% and Patni Computers closed high by 1.36%. In banking sector ICICI Bank gained 7.06%, HDFC Bank gained by 7.50%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication gained by 1.08%, while MTNL inclined by 3.47%.








Today the major stock markets in Asia have opened positive. The Shanghai Composite is trading high by 39.04 points at 1,859.84 Hang Seng is high by 188.97 points at 15,231.78. Further Japan''s Nikkei is high by 183.56 points at 9,043.12. South Korea’s Seoul Composite is high by 14.35 points at 1,171.53 and Singapore’s Strait Times is high by 28.01 points at 1,857.72.

The FIIs on Friday stood as net buyer in equity and net seller in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 292.00 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 0.00 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 191.80 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 0.10 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs 100.20 Crore and Rs (0.10) Crore respectively.

On Friday, Indian Rupee for the day of the year closed 48.58/60 per dollar, 0.4% stronger than Thursday’s close of 48.76/78. The rupee gained strength after RBI reduced CRR and Repo rates. There are anticipations of some positive trend in the stock markets and the simultaneous inflow of foreign capital.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 45.81 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 4,279.80 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 88.01 Crore and total turnover was Rs 10,460.07Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 94765775 shares, Suzlon Energy with total volume traded 49190299 shares, Satyam with 32711371 shares followed by Reliance Petro with 18254969 shares and DLF with 12072825 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 719686 with a total turnover of Rs 10,127.72 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 950712 with a total turnover of Rs 9,946.20 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 689273 with a total turnover of Rs 10,731.62 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 73326 and notional turnover was Rs 826.13 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,985 and resistance at 3,155 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,925 and resistance at 10,289.

Daily Call - Jan 5 2009


Markets are likely to build on their last week’s gains as they take stock of the economic stimulation package, monetary measures and the buoyant moves in US and Asian markets. The next meaningful resistances for the Nifty come at 3110 and 3240.

As far as the Sensex is concerned, it faces resistance at 10300, from that oft repeated over head trendline. A close above that could be very bullish for the Sensex. A trucker’s strike that has begun today may not be such a big issue as the land invasion by Israel in Gaza. Crude stocks could do well as a result.

SGX Nifty Live Update - 3 - Jan 5 2009


SGX Nifty currently trading at 3,084.5 and is +21.5 points

The gains seem to be tapering off

RBI cut, global cues to boost markets


Stocks are set to open on a firm note following steep rate cuts by the central bank and government measures to boost availability of credit to the corporate sectors. Both the rate cuts and government measures were announced after trading hours on Friday, 2 January 2009. Firm global markets will also support domestic bourses which have bounced back in the past few weeks. The BSE Sensex was up nearly 14% in one month to 2 January 2009. However, concerns about corporate earnings may cap upside.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate and the reverse repo rate by 100 basis points each, with immediate effect. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks and reverse repo rate is the rate at which RBI accepts deposits from banks. After the latest cuts, the repo rate is now at 5.5% and the reverse repo is now at 4%, the lowest ever. The RBI also announced a cut in cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits banks must keep with the central bank, by 50 basis points to 5% with effect from 17 January 2009. Lower interest rates may revive the domestic economy which has been slowing faster than expected due to high interest rates and the global financial crisis.

Complementing monetary easing by the RBI, the government enhanced the spending power of states with specific measures to boost credit availability in the second fiscal stimulus package. It offered additional sops to exporters and the small-scale sector, besides raising the level of protection for cement and steel sectors a tad. It has also incentivised purchase of commercial vehicles.

Credit availability has been hiked in a variety of ways, the interest ceiling on external commercial borrowings has been removed; the cap on foreign institutional investments in the domestic corporate debt market has been jacked up two-and-a-half times from $6 billion to $15 billion; a special purpose vehicle is being created to lend to non-banking finance companies to the tune of Rs 25,000 crore; Indian Infrastructure Finance Company is being permitted to raise another Rs 30,000 crore by means of tax-free bonds, and states are allowed to borrow an additional Rs 30,000 crore from the market.

In addition, public sector banks would be given additional capital to the extent of Rs 20,000 crore over the next two years, so they can lend roughly 10 times as much additionally.

The latest measures, which come in less than a month after the first package was unveiled on 7 December 2008 are aimed at benefiting housing and non-banking finance firms that lend to infrastructure and finance commercial vehicles.

However, the volatility on the bourses may heighten in the near terms as companies report their Q3 December 2008 results. A domestic brokerage estimates a muted 2.4% growth in net profit of Sensex firms excluding banking and financials firms, in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007, amid a sharp slowdown in the economy.

Asian stocks surged tracking strong gains in US stocks on Friday, 2 January 2009. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China and Taiwan were up by between 0.8% to 2.2%.

US stocks started the new year with a big jump as investors looked beyond yet another piece of grim economic data on hopes that a recovery is on the horizon after a disastrous 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 258.30, or 2.94% to 9,034.69 on 2 January 2009, the first trading day of the new calendar year. The market shrugged off a report by the Institute for Supply Management that said US factory activity fell to a 28-year low in December 2008, showing a more severe contraction than economists had expected.

US Markets jump on the first trading day


Christmas comes a week late at Wall Street

Christmas perhaps came a week late for US Market this year. Investors were more than happy to end the dismal 2008 and start 2009 on a fresh note on Friday, 02 January, 2009, the first trading session in 2009. The week that ended on that day brought huge gains on Wall Street, quite after a long time. Trading volumes during the week remained quite low due to the ongoing holiday mood in the market.

There wasn't a lot of corporate news of note this week. The market ignored bad economic news, of which there was plenty in this shortened week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained a whopping 519 points (6.1%) for the week to end at 9,034.69. Tech - heavy Nasdaq gained 101.97 points (6.7%) to end at 1,632.21. S&P 500 gained 59 points (6.8%) to end at 931.8.

Among the bad news in the market this week, Kuwaiti petrochemical company pulled out of a proposed $17 billion joint venture with Dow Chemical. In doing so, it raised concerns that Dow will be unable to complete its proposed acquisition of Rohm & Haas.

Among good news in the market this week that the financial arm of GM, (GMAC) got word that the U.S. Treasury would make a $5 billion investment in the troubled financing company and would loan General Motors another $1 billion to participate in a GMAC rights offering that supports GMAC's reorganization as a bank holding company.

Bolstering the Dow on the last day of the week, Friday was Citigroup after Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said that he and Chairman Win Bischoff would not take bonuses for 2008 and will trim pay and severance packages for executives.

Among major earning reports for the week, The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index declined 18% in October, which was the largest year-over-year decline on record. The report also conveyed the message that the housing market is still searching for a bottom. Separately, consumer confidence hit a record low in December. The ISM Index, which is computed from a survey of national manufacturing conditions, hit its weakest point since June 1980. The ISM added that new orders were at their lowest level since January 1948.

Among other reports for the week, weekly initial claims surprised in a good way, as they fell by 94,000 positions to 492,000. But there were continued job cut announcements and the claims for continuing benefits jumped to 4.506 million from 4.336 million.

In the US stock market on Friday, 02 January, 2008 stocks ended substantially higher. Stocks rallied despite lack of news and data.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average ended higher by 258 points at 9,034, the Nasdaq closed higher by 55 points at 1,632 and the S&P 500 closed higher by 28 points at 931.

Energy sector provided to good leadership to the market on Friday as crude prices erased earlier losses and rallied to end higher.

Among major economic reports for the day, The Institute for Supply Management reported on Friday, 02 January, 2008 that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the fifth straight month in December. The overall ISM index fell to 32.4% in December, the weakest reading since 1980. It's down from 36.2% in November. Market was expecting the December ISM index to rise slightly from November's reading, to 36.3%.

ISM readings above 50% indicate an expansion of the manufacturing economy, while readings below indicate a contraction. The report detailed that that new orders now have contracted for 13 consecutive months, and are at the lowest level on record going back to January 1948. Manufacturing payrolls also shrank as the employment index fell to 29.9% from November's 34.2%. The institute's price index dropped to 18.0% from 25.5%.

On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for February delivery closed at $46.34/barrel (higher by $1.74 or 3.9%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. During intra day trading, prices touched a low of $41.05. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 68% since then.

Executive Summary

For the week, indices registered very good gains at Wall Street. It was a holiday shortened week. Market ignored the bad news and economic reports that checked in were mixed in nature.

In percentage terms, Dow gained 6.1%, Nasdaq gained 6.7% and S&P 500 gained 6.8%. The market has surged 8% since the close of trading on 23 December, 2008.

For the year 2009, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up by 2.9%, 3.5% and 3.2% respectively.

Crude rises


Crude registers biggest yearly drop in CY 2008

Ongoing conflicts at Middle East, OPEC's production cut and threat from Russia to cut off energy supplies to European countries took crude prices higher on the first trading session in FY 2009 on Friday, 02 January, 2009. Crude prices ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.

On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for February delivery closed at $46.34/barrel (higher by $1.74 or 3.9%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. During intra day trading, prices touched a low of $41.05. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 68% since then.

Israeli warplanes conducted fresh attacks against Hamas in the Gaza Strip for a seventh straight day on Friday, raising concerns that oil supplies in the Middle East may be disrupted.

Hopes that OPEC will improve its compliance with production cuts also helped oil prices higher.

After a meeting in Oran, Algeria, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from its actual September production level of 29.045 million barrels a day on 17 December, 2008. The production cut was effective on 1 January, 2009. Excluding previously announced cuts, OPEC will actually cut its daily production by 2.2 million barrels from current levels. That constitutes its biggest production cut ever.

Against this background, February heating oil rose 2.6% to $1.4803 a gallon. February reformulated gasoline gained 4.6% to $1.1105 a gallon.

February natural gas futures rose 6.2% to $5.971 per million British thermal units.

At the MCX, crude oil for January delivery closed at Rs 2,255/barrel, higher by Rs 31 (1.4%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for January delivery closed at Rs 290.5/mmbtu, higher by Rs 0.5/mmbtu (0.17%).

Trading Calls - Jan 5 2009


Trading Calls - Jan 5 2009

Technicals - Jan 5 2009


Technicals - Jan 5 2009

SREI Infrastructure


We recommend a buy in SREI Infrastructure Finance stock from a short-term trading perspective. It is evident from the charts of this stock that it was on an intermediate-term downtrend from August 2008 high to early December 2008 low (from Rs 130 to Rs 35). This December low is also its 52-week low and a significant long-term support level for the stock. It recently bounced up, forming a double bottom around the previous trough at Rs 35. On January 2, the stock conclusively penetrated its intermediate-term down trendline as well as 21-day moving average by jumping 11 per cent. The volume was heavy during this jump. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone and weekly RSI is recovering from the oversold territory. Considering the penetration of the stock’s intermediate-term down trendline and the presence of significant support band at Rs 35 to Rs 40, we are bullish on it from a short-term perspective. We expect the stock to move up until it hits our price target of Rs 52 in the approaching trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 43.

via BL

Market to open higher on global cues


Positive close in US markets and firm Asian indices in morning trades may help the market open in the green. FIIs remaining net buyers of equities in the domestic market may also help to gain further. However, recent spike in crude oil prices could force the players to remain on the sidelines. The Nifty on the downside may dip to 3000 while on the upside it may test 3100. The Sensex has a likely support at 9800 and may face resistance at 10100.

US indices closed positive on Friday with the Dow Jones advanced by 258 points at 9035, the Nasdaq added 55 points to close at 1632.

All the Indian floats trading on the US bourses ended positive except Satyam. ICICI Bank, HDFC BanK and Tata Motors was the major gainer and moved up over 6-7% each. Dr Reddy's, MTNL, Wipro and Infosys gained more than 2-4%. while VSNL, Rediff and Patni Computers ended with decent gains.

Crude oil prices surged further while Nymex light crude oil for February delivery gained $1.74 to close at $46.34 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for March series decline by $4.80 to settle at $879.50 a troy ounce.

Derivatives - Jan 5 2009


Derivatives - Jan 5 2009

Morning Note - Jan 5 2009


Morning Note - Jan 5 2009

Technical Trends - Jan 5 2009


Technical Trends - Jan 5 2009

Stimulus Package, Market Strategy, Cummins India


Stimulus Package, Market Strategy, Cummins India

Weekly Technicals - Jan 5 2009


Weekly Technicals - Jan 5 2009

Daily Trading Calls - Jan 5 2009







Nifty (3047) Sup 2990 Res 3110

Buy R Com (251) SL 247
Target 259, 262

Buy ABB (490) SL 485
Target 499, 503

Buy Aban (750) SL 745
Target 760, 762

Buy Bank of India (296) SL 292
Target 304, 307

Sell GAIL (208) SL 212
Target 200, 198

Daily News Roundup - Jan 5 2009


GMR Energy, subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, is offered a 33.5% stake in South Africa-based Homeland Energy Group.(BS)

Union Bank and Bank of Baroda announce a reduction in their deposit rates ranging between 25 and 75bps across various maturities.(ET)

ONGC Videsh planning to bid for a “few” of the 19 exploration blocks being offered under two bidding rounds by Iraq.(BS)

Tata Steel aims savings of Rs75bn in current financial year.(FE)

Tata Motors CV sales decline 51 % YoY in December 2008.(BL)

BHEL close to entering into agreements with two overseas companies for JV in forging and transmission sectors.(BS)

Ambuja Cements says shipments in December 2008 rose 11.8% to 16.6mn tonnes.(ET)

Aditya Birla Group cement despatches up 13.4% YoY in December 2008.(BL)

Indian Oil Corp says it will expand Panipat refinery and commission a naphtha cracker complex adjacent to the unit this year.(TOI)

Suzlon Energy to sell 10% of its stake in Belgium-based subsidiary Hansen Transmission for nearly Rs6bn to funds managed by Ecofin.(FE)

Jindal Stainless plans to delay its Rs100bn expansion plan in India.(BS)

Motherson Sumi acquires UK-based Visiocorp’s global rear view mirror business.(ET)

Kingfisher Airlines announced it has cut domestic basic fares by up to 65%.(BS)

SBI is planning to raise about Rs5bn from retail investors as Tier II capital.(DNA)

Emami plans to hive off Zandu Chemicals, a subsidiary of Zandu Pharma.(BS)

Centre proposes to provide additional oil bonds worth Rs300bn to IOC, BPCL and HPCL.(ET)

Elecon Engineering receives Rs220mn order from Adani Power.(BL)

Tata group and its South African partner Sasol have opposed giving part of the crude oil they plan to produce from coal (coal-to-liquid project) to the government as profit share.(TOI)

SBI picks up 19.7% equity in Mayfair Hotels and resorts through a PE deal.(BS)

ONGC is set to acquire Imperial Energy, a British oil and gas company, for US$1.9bn after 97% shareholders gave their consent to the takeover bid.(FE)

Satyam in talks with HCL Technologies and Mind Tree for merger.(BS)

Binani Cement in talks with FIIs to raise Rs15bn for new projects.(ET)

GVK seeks airport fee to meet shortfall.(TOI)

RBI cuts repo, reverse repo by 100bps each; CRR also cut by 50bps.(BL)

Government announces fiscal steps to boost infrastructure, export sectors.(BL)

Forex reserves rose US$561mn to US$255bn in the week ended December 26.(BL)

CERC to cap tariff on inter-state power trade.(DNA)

Bank credit grew by 0.1% in the fortnight ended December 19 as against 0.4% in the previous 15 days.(BS)

State governments allowed to raise Rs300bn more through market borrowing.(BL)

DoT may endorse higher reserve price for 3G services.(Mint)

RBI further relaxes asset classification norms for banks to restructure loans to viable units facing cash flow problems.(BS)

Communications ministry is likely to defer the auctions of 3G spectrum yet again.(ET)

SEBI to make it mandatory for promoters to declare pledged shares.(ET)

DoT working on Mobile Number Portability to meet June timeline.(ET)

FII investment limit in corporate debt raised to US$15bn from US$6bn.(BL)

Petrol price set to fall by up to Rs10 per litre.(TOI)

Cement makers start shutting down plants; stocks piling up as demand slumps particularly in the North.(DNA)

Centre plans to halve fertilizer subsidy by 2010.(Mint)

Centre may ease FDI norms, scrap PN-1.(ET)

Mutual funds assets add Rs163bn in December 2008.(FE)

Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs clears six highway projects with revised costs.(FE)

Stimulus suspense ends!


The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.

Most doubts on the Stimulus Package II have finally ended. The Government has announced a slew of fresh measures, aimed at putting the Indian economy back on high growth path. The RBI too has joined the effort with aggressive rate cuts. We expect the market to respond positively today. What will help the bulls is that the global markets too are witnessing buoyancy. Taken together, these two factors can take the market (read Nifty) higher by a couple of hundred points. Later in the month, the quarterly results may spoil the party, especially if there is any major negative surprise. In any case, the intermediate uptrend may run out of gas after a while in the absence of fresh catalysts. In this context, the trend in FII flows will play a crucial role. Buying support from local funds will be more than welcome.

Today, the market will open higher due to strength across global markets. Investors should consider booking profits at every given opportunity, as the recent spurt doesn’t suggest end of the bear phase as yet. At the same time, downside risks have also eased, pointing to a rangebound trading in the short to medium term. One may undertake long-term purchases once there is clear evidence of a turn around.

Foreign and domestic funds were net buyers on Friday at Rs1.21bn and Rs2.38bn, respectively, according to provisional data from the NSE. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net buyers of Rs4.16bn. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs453mn on Thursday.

US stocks ended sharply higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 9,000 for the first time since November, as investors put behind what was the worst year in several decades.

Expectations for another big stimulus package, once the Barack Obama led regime takes over the reigns at the White House in about three weeks' time, helped the key stock benchmarks extend week's gains.

General Motors (GM) received its first cash infusion from the government and rising oil prices lifted energy shares. After the close of trading, Chrysler said it has received a $4bn initial loan from the federal government.

The Dow climbed 258.3 points, or 2.9%, to 9,034.69. All of the Dow's 30 components closed Friday in the green. The gains left the blue-chip index up more than 500 points, or 6.1%, for the week.

The S&P 500 jumped 28.55 points, or 3.2% to 931.8, capping its first three-day gain in five weeks and best start to a year since 2003. The broader market indicator gained 6.8% during the truncated week.

The technology-led Nasdaq Composite surged 55.18 points, or 3.5%, to finish at 1,632.21, a level that left it up 6.7% for the week.

The Russell 2000 Index of small US companies advanced 1.3%.

Wednesday brought a positive end to one of the worst years on record. The Dow lost 33.8% in the year, the third worst in its history, following a drop of 52.7% in 1931.

The S&P declined nearly 38.5%, its worst yearly performance since an earlier version of the broad stock index lost 47% in 1931. The earlier incarnation had 90 US stocks in it.

For the Nasdaq, 2008's loss of 40.5% is the tech-fueled index's worst ever, going back to its inception in 1971.

All US financial markets were closed Thursday for New Year's Day.

Market breadth was positive. Volume was thin, with many investors apparently still on break. About 7.2 billion shares changed hands on all U.S. exchanges, 29 percent fewer than the three-month daily average as trading slowed at the end of the holiday-shortened week.

Wall Street analysts are cautiously optimistic that the US market will recover in 2009. However, the extent of any recovery will depend on a variety of factors, including what kind of economic stimulus package the new Congress approves - and the depth of the recession.

At the same time, investors should not assume that the trend is now going to be up for most of the year. There is no reason why stocks could not rally for a while and then retreat, making new bear market lows.

Crude-oil futures rose to three-week highs, gaining nearly 4% on concerns that Russia's cutting off natural gas to the Ukraine could impact European energy supplies. Crude for February delivery ended up US$1.74, or 3.9%, to stand at US$46.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The dollar rose after a report showed manufacturing in Europe had slowed, but the greenback scaled back gains after the weak US manufacturing report. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against major rivals, edged up to 81.87 from 81.17 a day earlier.

Gold futures fell, as a stronger US dollar reduced the metal's appeal as an alternative investment, with the contract for February delivery declining US$4.80 to end at US$879.50 an ounce.

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the corresponding yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.37% from 2.24% on Wednesday. Yields on the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasurys all hit record lows last month.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate slipped to a 4-1/2-year low of 1.41% Friday from 1.42% on Wednesday, according to Dow Jones. Overnight Libor slipped to 0.12% from 0.14%. Libor is a key bank lending rate.

Gasoline prices rose 0.8 cents to a national average of US$1.626 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card swipes released Friday by motorist group AAA.

The US manufacturing sector continues to weaken, according to the latest reports. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell to a 28-year low in December, declining more than what economists had been expecting.

GM, the largest US automaker, rallied 14% after receiving US$4bn in rescue loans from the Treasury to help the company avoid collapse. Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp. led an index of energy producers to a sixth straight advance.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. jumped 16% on takeover speculation after agreeing to notify one of its largest investors of any offers.

Time Warner Cable and Viacom have reached a new programming deal that will keep 19 Viacom cable channels on TWC's network.

In other news, Bank of America has completed its acquisition of Merrill Lynch. Wells Fargo has completed its purchase of Wachovia.

This week brings a slew of economic reports in the US, covering retail sales, auto sales, factory orders and construction spending ahead of the big December employment report due on Friday.

Markets extended gains to second straight trading session on Friday ending the week on a positive note. Markets surged ahead of the second stimulus package to be announced later in the day. The interest rate sensitive stocks were in momentum throughout the day. Also the fertilizer stocks witnessed huge build up in open interest. Further on, a smart start to equity markets across Europe lifted the sentiments on D-Street.

The BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 9,958 adding 54 points and the NSE Nifty index ended at 3,046 up 13 points.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Consumer Durable index (up 2.5%), BSE Realty index (up 2%) and BSE Bankex index (up 2%). On the other hand BSE IT index (down 1.2%) and BSE Teck index (down 1%).

Market breath was positive, 1,697 stocks advanced against 824 declines, while, 78 stocks remained unchanged.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 18 stocks were in the green and 12 stocks ended in the negative terrain. Bharti, Infosys, HUL and Satyam were the big losers. On the other hand, Reliance HDFC and ICICI Bank were the big gainers.

Shares of RCom advanced by 2% to Rs250 after the company announced that the launch of GSM-based cellular services in 14 circles with a capex of Rs100bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs254 and a low of Rs243 and recorded volumes of over 38,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Hotel Leela surged by over 4% to Rs20 after reports stated that the company would be opening three new hotels in India this year.

The company is planning to open a hotel in Gurgaon, near capital New Delhi, this month and one in the northern city of Udaipur shortly, added reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs21 and a low of Rs20 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Punj Lloyd surged by over 3% to Rs158 after the company announced that its Singapore based subsidiary has received Rs1.5bn order from ExxonMobil. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs162 and a low of Rs154 and recorded volumes of over 23,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Shipping Corporation advanced by 4% to Rs87 after reports stated that the company plans to invest around US$3bn for acquiring 40 ships to double its tonnage capacity to around 10mn dwt by 2015. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs88 and a low of Rs82 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on BSE.

With rate cuts and other additional measures announced bulls would carry forward the momentum atleast in the opening trades on Monday. However, one should not get carried away in this swing but wisely use the opurtunity to exit and book some profits.

India Monetary Policy Review


India Monetary Policy Review

SGX Nifty Live Update - 2 - Jan 5 2009


SGX Nifty currently at 3,096.5 and is trading +33.5 points

Infosys Technologies


Infosys Technologies

GSPL


GSPL

Technical outlook for 2009


Despite a gloomy macroeconomic environment, 2009 is unlikely to be as bad as the previous year.

After enjoying three years of nearly 35 per cent plus returns, investors burnt their fingers as the Nifty plunged over 50 per cent in 2008, making it one of the worst years in market history. The credit problem that engulfed western markets left its mark on the Indian bourses as well, as FIIs started pulling out of the markets here to bridge the liquidity shortfall back home. While the markets have recovered 36 per cent from the October lows of 2,252, chances of a sharp recovery on back of a sluggish economy are rather bleak

Read more here

Weekly Market Outlook - Jan 5 2009


Weekly Market Outlook - Jan 5 2009

SGX Nifty Live Update - Jan 5 2009


SGX Nifty currently at 3,117.0 and is trading +54.0 points

Weekly Watch - Jan 5 2009


Weekly Watch - Jan 5 2009