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Friday, June 19, 2009

Reliance Capital


Reliance Capital

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - June 19 2009


Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
19/6/2009 531761 AMULYA LEAS VIKASH KUMAR SINGH S 27800 7.37
19/6/2009 511664 BGIL FL TEC JINESH BHATT B 41000 39.98
19/6/2009 531682 CAT TECHNOL S V ENTERPRISES B 164901 6.44
19/6/2009 519600 CCL PRODUTS RELIANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT SINGAPORE LTDINDIAEQUITY GROWTH FUND LT B 152155 117.00
19/6/2009 519600 CCL PRODUTS DSP BLACKROCK INVESTMENT MANAGERS PVT LTD MICRO CAP FUND S 150983 117.01
19/6/2009 531358 CHOIC INTERN VINOD JEETAPAL BANA B 23819 57.55
19/6/2009 511636 DJS STOCK SH PADMAKANT DEVIDAS SECURITIES LTD S 36500 33.20
19/6/2009 517973 DMC INTER PATTABIRAMAN B 26794 7.53
19/6/2009 532318 GEMINI COMMU RAMAMURTHY VIJAYKUMAR B 500000 25.71
19/6/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA SHRI DURGA FINVEST PRIVATE LIMITED S 147812 34.08
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS DEEPAK SHANTILAL CHHEDA B 153737 20.12
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS AMIT MANILAL GALA B 149985 19.71
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS SRINIVAS LAXMAIAH MACHERLA B 200311 21.95
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS SHEETAL RAJESH JAIN B 223783 21.75
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS CHANDRAKANT J VALLAKATI B 258508 21.11
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD. B 272415 19.43
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 214154 21.18
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS PRABHUDAS LILLADHER P LTD. B 205055 18.33
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS HITESH SHASHIKANT JHAVERI B 155335 21.70
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS M/S STANDARD SECURITIES & INVESTMENT INTERMEDIATES LTD. B 216871 19.33
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS Naman Securities & Finance Pvt. Ltd. B 231991 20.32
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS NAMAN SEC. & FIN. PPVT. LTD. B 500000 21.01
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS MEENA RASIKLAL VORA B 500000 18.86
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKER LTD B 170501 20.27
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS KAMAL KUMAR JALAN SEC. PVT. LTD B 142812 18.94
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS SHILPA MILIND DESAI B 381072 21.42
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS RAKHI KALPESH BHANDARI B 367046 19.52
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS DYNAMIC STOCK BROKING INDIA PVT LTD B 161710 21.59
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED B 163034 22.43
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS DEEPAK SHANTILAL CHHEDA S 153737 20.12
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS AMIT MANILAL GALA S 149985 19.68
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS SRINIVAS LAXMAIAH MACHERLA S 200311 20.95
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS SHEETAL RAJESH JAIN S 223783 21.67
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS CHANDRAKANT J VALLAKATI S 258508 20.62
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD. S 272418 19.39
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 214154 21.15
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS PRABHUDAS LILLADHER P LTD. S 205055 18.44
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS M/S STANDARD SECURITIES & INVESTMENT INTERMEDIATES LTD. S 216871 19.24
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS Naman Securities & Finance Pvt. Ltd. S 231990 19.32
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS NAMAN SEC. & FIN. PPVT. LTD. S 500000 18.86
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS MEENA RASIKLAL VORA S 500000 21.01
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKER LTD S 170501 20.10
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS KAMAL KUMAR JALAN SEC. PVT. LTD S 142812 18.85
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS SHILPA MILIND DESAI S 181072 21.41
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS RAKHI KALPESH BHANDARI S 367046 19.50
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS DYNAMIC STOCK BROKING INDIA PVT LTD S 160210 20.89
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED S 163070 20.73
19/6/2009 509684 INDIA FOILS V D INVESTMENTS S 850000 22.68
19/6/2009 516078 JUMBO BAG LT RUSHAB RAVJI PATEL B 50262 40.46
19/6/2009 516078 JUMBO BAG LT RUSHAB RAVJI PATEL S 57429 40.17
19/6/2009 516078 JUMBO BAG LT HEMENDRA AGARWAL S 60000 40.23
19/6/2009 524826 JUPITER BIOS CLSA (MAURITIUS) LIMITED S 93000 61.35
19/6/2009 531731 KUVAM INTL DILIP GOVIND RATHOD B 20000 7.14
19/6/2009 531731 KUVAM INTL NARESH T DOSHI B 20000 7.14
19/6/2009 531731 KUVAM INTL PUNEET ARORA S 26000 7.14
19/6/2009 531731 KUVAM INTL UMA KANSAL S 21100 7.14
19/6/2009 511728 KZLEASING DEEPAK ARUNBHAI RAITHATHA S 32372 12.80
19/6/2009 524084 MONSANTO IND MONSANTO HOLDINGS PRIVATE LIMITED B 425000 1617.00
19/6/2009 524084 MONSANTO IND BRETCO HOLDINGS (MAURITIUS) LTD S 425000 1617.00
19/6/2009 531096 MOUNT EVE MI TATA TEA LTD B 700000 78.99
19/6/2009 531096 MOUNT EVE MI ARISAIG INDIA FUND LTD S 697000 79.00
19/6/2009 532724 MOUNT TRAD AAMOD SECURITIES B 10000 136.50
19/6/2009 532724 MOUNT TRAD IFCI LIMITED S 18517 136.50
19/6/2009 526827 SPICE ISL AP DHEERAJ KUMAR B 25265 11.61
19/6/2009 512048 SPLASH MEDIA HITESH BABUBHAI DOBARIYA B 11451 59.00
19/6/2009 512048 SPLASH MEDIA KIRIT V DAVE S 11451 59.00
19/6/2009 530017 STANDARD IND DHANLAXMI COTEX LTD. B 450000 20.75
19/6/2009 530017 STANDARD IND PRAMOD PREMCHAND SHAH S 450000 20.75
19/6/2009 531390 UPSURGE INVS NEW ERA ADVISORS PVT LTD B 60000 13.50
19/6/2009 503657 VEER ENERGY VILPABEN PRANAVBHAI VORA B 15188 298.55
19/6/2009 531874 VENUS VENT BESTO TRADECOMM PRIVATE L IMITED B 50000 55.02
19/6/2009 522080 VULCAN ENGIN PREM TRUPTI BUILDERS AND DEVELOPERS PVT LTD B 33000 9.85
19/6/2009 522080 VULCAN ENGIN SOHEL HAROON KHANDWANI S 34150 9.85
19/6/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA AMAR PREMCHAND WALMIKI B 25000 162.48

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - June 19 2009


Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
19-JUN-2009,ABAN,Aban Offshore Ltd.,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,BUY,351800,861.97,-
19-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,99494,370.28,-
19-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,BUY,104170,369.56,-
19-JUN-2009,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.,BUY,6672849,48.89,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,214527,20.81,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,BUY,191310,19.90,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,M/S JAISUKH VINIMOY PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,39420,20.06,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,214877,19.59,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,VAIBHAV DOSHI,BUY,312087,17.81,-
19-JUN-2009,ISPATIND,Ispat Industries Limited,JAYPEE CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,BUY,6160684,22.06,-
19-JUN-2009,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD.,BUY,2412122,38.71,-
19-JUN-2009,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,PACE FINANCIAL SERVICES,BUY,2205470,38.61,-
19-JUN-2009,RIIL,Reliance Indl Infra Ltd,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,98541,1030.46,-
19-JUN-2009,SUZLON,Suzlon Energy Limited,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,7553992,107.12,-
19-JUN-2009,ABAN,Aban Offshore Ltd.,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,SELL,351800,862.79,-
19-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,99494,370.85,-
19-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,SELL,103370,369.85,-
19-JUN-2009,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.,SELL,6672849,49.03,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,214527,21.39,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,SELL,191310,20.12,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,M/S JAISUKH VINIMOY PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,151952,20.25,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,214877,19.64,-
19-JUN-2009,IFL,India Foils Limited,VAIBHAV DOSHI,SELL,312087,18.49,-
19-JUN-2009,ISPATIND,Ispat Industries Limited,JAYPEE CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,SELL,6196372,22.02,-
19-JUN-2009,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD.,SELL,2412122,38.70,-
19-JUN-2009,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,PACE FINANCIAL SERVICES,SELL,2014270,38.56,-
19-JUN-2009,PRITHVI,Prithvi Information Solut,Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd,SELL,118250,52.88,-
19-JUN-2009,RIIL,Reliance Indl Infra Ltd,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,98541,1031.08,-
19-JUN-2009,SUZLON,Suzlon Energy Limited,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,7553992,107.18,-

ICICI Bank June 2009 futures at premium


Turnover declines

Nifty June 2009 futures were at 4326, at a premium of 12.40 points as compared to the spot closing of 4313.60. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 79,597.86 crore, lower than Rs 83,936.67 crore on Thursday, 18 June 2009.

ICICI Bank June 2009 futures were at premium at 718 compared to the spot closing of 714.05.

Jaiprakash Associates June 2009 futures were at premium at 203.60 compared to the spot closing of 200.20.

Tata Steel June 2009 futures were at premium at 413.50 compared to the spot closing of 412.55.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty rose 62.20 points or 1.46% at 4313.60.

Reliance Infrastructure


Reliance Infrastructure

Grey Market Premium - Rishabhdev Technocable


Rishabhdev Technocable 29 to 33 8 to 10

Mahindra Holidays reportedly sets price band at Rs 275-325 a share


For its 92.65 lakh shares public offer

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India has reportedly set a price band of Rs 275-325 a share for its 92.65 lakh shares public offer, representing 11% of the post-issue paid up capital.

The initial public offer (IPO) for Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India, a unit of Mahindra & Mahindra, will remain open between 23 June 2009 and 26 June 2009.

The IPO proceeds will be utilised in expanding current properties and adding five new properties at Kumbalgarh in Rajasthan, Kadambakkam in Tamil Nadu, Binsar in Uttaranchal, Theog in Himachal Pradesh, and Tungi in Maharashtra.

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts had raised nearly Rs 120 crore by selling 2% stake to State Bank of India and 1% stake to Jacob Ballas India Fund in February 2008. The transaction had taken place at Rs 479 a share.

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India runs the shared vacation home business, Club Mahindra Holidays. India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra holds 93.64% in the company.

Sensex snaps 14-week rally


Key benchmark indices retreated from multi-month highs as profit booking emerged at higher level. The barometer index BSE Sensex fell below the psychological 15,000 mark to end its 14-week winning streak. Anticipation of a strong push for economic reforms by the newly-elected United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, positive global cues and strong foreign fund inflow had triggered a solid recent rally. The market declined in 3 out of 5 trading days in the week ended Friday, 19 June 2009

World stocks fell after finance ministers from the Group of Eight leading industrialized countries on Saturday, 13 June 2009, said they have begun discussing how to unwind the fiscal and monetary policy measures undertaken in response to the financial and economic crisis that spread last year. Noting a recovery in stock markets, rising consumer and business confidence and improvement in financial markets, the group "discussed the need to prepare appropriate strategies for unwinding the extraordinary policy measures taken to respond to the crisis once the recovery is assured," the finance ministers said in a statement.

"These 'exit strategies', which may vary from country to country, are essential to promote a sustainable recovery over the long term," they said.

Back home, India's industrial production for April 2009 bounced back into the positive zone after declining three times in the preceding four months. The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 1.4% in April from a revised 0.75% decline in March 2009, data released on 12 June 2009 showed. Industrial output rose 2.4% in the 2008/09 fiscal year (April-March), down from a revised 8.5% in 2007/08.

The BSE Sensex lost 716.05 points or 4.70% to 14,521.89 in the week ended Friday, 19 June 2009. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 269.80 points or 5.88% to 4313.60 in the week.

The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 276.30 points or 5.28% to 4,958.73 and the BSE Small-Cap index shed 396.70 points or 6.60% to 5,617.96 in the week ended Friday, 19 June 2009.

The BSE Sensex is up 4874.58 points or 50.52% in calendar year 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 6361.49 points or 77.95%.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) were the key drivers of the recent solid surge. After being heavy net sellers of Rs 4250.30 crore in January 2009 and to the tune of Rs 2707 crore in February 2009, foreign fund selling eased in March 2009, when they tuned net sellers of only Rs 1.1 crore. Their buying gathered steam in April 2009 when they pumped Rs 7384.50 crore. They continued their buying spree in May 2009 pouring Rs 20,606.80 in equities.

FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,962.40 crore (till 17 June 2009) with their inflow in calendar year 2009 at Rs 26,281.80 crore.

Trading for the week began on weak note as weak global markets and slide in heavyweight Reliance Industries following an unfavourable court ruling on gas sales, dragged indices lower on Monday, 15 June 2009. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 362.42 points, or 2.38%, to 14,875.52 and the S&P CNX Nifty slipped 99.40 points or 2.17% to 4,484

Upbeat advance tax paid by frontline companies for the April-June 2009 quarter helped key benchmark indices reverse intraday losses and end with decent gains on Tuesday, 16 June 2009. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 82.39 points, or 0.55%, to 14,957.91 and the S&P CNX Nifty gained 33.80 points or 0.75% to 4,517.80

Weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment on Wednesday, 17 June 2009 as the key benchmark indices tumbled in late trade. The BSE 30-share Sensex slumped 435.07 points, or 2.91%, to 14,522.84 and the S&P CNX Nifty fell 161.65 points or 3.58% to 4,356.15

Reports the government may rollback excise duty cuts in a bid to return to fiscal prudence amid slack revenue collections and selling by foreign funds weighed on the bourses on Thursday, 18 June 2009. The BSE 30-share Sensex declined 257.31 points or 1.77% to 14,265.53 and the S&P CNX Nifty fell 104.75 points or 2.4% to 4,251.40.

Key benchmark indices spurted in late trade on Friday, 19 June 2009 led by rally in realty, metal and capital goods stocks. Higher European stocks and gains in US index futures boosted the market in was a highly volatile trading session. The BSE 30-share Sensex gained 256.36 points or 1.80% to 14,521.89 and the S&P CNX Nifty rose 62.20 points or 1.46% to 4,313.60

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) lost 13.46% to Rs 2039.60 in the week after the Bombay High Court directed RIL and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) to sign gas supply deal. The court has asked RIL to supply 28 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmbtu) to RNRL. This is much lower than the price fixed by the government for gas sale from the RIL block in the KG basin at $4.2 million per metric British thermal unit. RIL's advance tax payment fell 7.65% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

In January 2009, the Bombay High Court had issued an interim order saying Reliance Industries was allowed to sell gas at $4.2 per million British thermal units from its KG-D6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin off eastern India, pending a final judgment..

RNRL rose 5.96%. Reliance Infrastructure rose 7.06% on speculation it will benefit from gas supply from Reliance Industries at a lower rate.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales ONGC fell 10.36% as its advance tax fell 33% to Rs 890.50 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Metal stocks corrected as LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange declined after recent sharp run-up. National Aluminum Company (down 2.94%), Hindalco Industries (down 12.39%), Tata Steel (down 9.66%), Sterlite Industries (down 1551%), declined

Advance tax payment of India's largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel's fell 36.39% to Rs 230 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Auto stocks fell on profit taking after recent surge triggered by improved sales in the month of May 2009. Tata Motors (down 3.18%), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 5.87%), Hero Honda Motors (down 0.32%), Bajaj Auto (down 3.58%), and Maruti Suzuki India (down 3.49%), fell.

Realty stocks fell on profit taking after a recent sharp surge triggered by expectations that stability at the Centre will attract more money from foreign investors into the sector which in turn will boost growth. DLF (down 10.30%), Indiabulls Real Estate (down 11.66%), and Unitech (down 6.96%), lost.

India's biggest bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India (SBI) rose 5.34% as its advance tax payment rose 61.09% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008. SBI on 13 June 2009 said it will cut deposit rates across all tenors by 25 basis points, with effect from 15 June 2009.

SBI chairman O.P. Bhatt recently said SBI's first priority is to absorb its associate banks. It is also looking to grow by buying domestic banks.

India's largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) slipped 5.66%. The minister of heavy industries Vilasrao Deshmukh said 19 June 2009 the government will consider selling 10% stake in the state-run engineering firm.

Telecom stocks slipped on selling pressure. Bharti Airtel (down 2.99%), Reliance Communications (down 8.03%), and Idea Cellular (down 3.66%), declined.

India's second-largest mobile operator by sales Reliance Communications added 2.4 million users in May 2009, taking its total mobile subscribers to more than 7.7 crore.

Outsourcing focussed IT stocks were mixed amid hopes government may extend tax benefits in the Union Budget 2009-2010 were offset by selling pressure. India's second largest software services exporter by sales Infosys rose 2.50%. But, India's third largest software services exporter by sales Wipro fell 7.14%

The Indian IT industry has sought extension of the Software Technology Parks of India (STPI) scheme. The STPI scheme which offers 100% tax deduction on profits under Section 10 A and 10 B of the Income Tax Act, was extended by one year to March 2010 in the Budget last year.

Advance tax collections across the country recording an increase for the first time in the past six months, over the corresponding period last fiscal. Advance tax collection for the 1 April 2009 to 16 June 2009 reportedly rose 17% to over Rs 48,000 crore from Rs 41,800 crore a year ago. Out of the total collection of Rs 48,000 crore, Rs 26,000 crore came just from corporate tax. Increase in tax collection is counted as a sign of an economic recovery.

Meanwhile annual monsoon rains are seen reviving around 20 June 2009, reports quoting an unnamed official at India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated on 18 June 2009. Monsoon rains for the week ended 10 June 2009 was 37% below normal as the progress of the annual rains, crucial to the farm sector, stalled after an early start, IMD said.

India Strategy - Rural India


India Strategy - Rural India

India Real Estate


India Real Estate

Post Session Commentary - June 19 2009


After moving up and down, the domestic market finally closed with good gains due to fresh buying momentum emerged in key stocks after fall observed in previous sessions. Firm cues from the markets all over world along with higher US index futures also contributed to the upturn. The BSE Sensex ended above 14,500 level and NSE Nifty above 4,300 mark. On the sectoral front, investors on-loaded position across the sectors. Besides, most of the buying was seen in Capital Goods, Realty, Metal, IT, Bank, Power and Pharma stocks.

The market opened on pleasant note tracking favorable cues from the markets all over the world. In the global arena, the US Markets closed in mixed on Thursday, on the back of some encouraging economic reports. The initial jobless claims in US rose slightly to 608,000 for the week ending June 13 from a revised 605,000 in the prior week. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Index for June came in with a less dismal-than-expected reading as it rose to negative 2.2 from negative 22.6 last month. Further, Indian benchmark indices continued to trade in positive territory with a bit if volatility till afternoon trade. However, the market was unable to carry on the same momentum and slipped into red on account selling pressure witnessed in selective stocks. Finally, market bounced back from lower level with sharp rise in global stocks to close near the day’s high.

Among the Sensex pack 24 stocks ended in positive territory while 6 closed in negative. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained positive as 1,345 stocks closed in green while 1293 stocks closed in red while 66 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 256.36 points or 1.80% at 14,521.89 and NSE Nifty ended up by 62.20 points or 1.46% at 4,313.60. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 81.87 and 45.52 points at 4,958.73 and 5,617.96. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 14,559.08 and intraday low of 14,179.77.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Tata Steel (5.85%), L&T Ltd (5.71%), Tata Motors (5.08%), Reliance Infra (5.08%), JP Associates (4.68%), Ranbaxy Lab (3.68%), ITC Ltd (3.50%), Grasim Industries (3.15%) and Sterlite Industries (2.97%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack is NTPC Ltd (2.20%), Tata Power (1.06%), ACC Ltd (1.02%), M&M Ltd (0.58%), Sun Pharma (0.24%) and ONGC Ltd (0.23%).

On the global markets front the Asian markets which opened before the Indian market, closed in green after upbeat US factory and jobs data provided indicated that the global economy is recovering from its deep recession. Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng, Nikkei, Strait Times and Seoul Composite closed higher by 26.59, 144.59, 82.54, 35.98 and 7.58 points at 2,880.49, 17,920.93, 9,786.26, 2,273.18 and 1,383.34 respectively.

European markets which opened after the Indian market are trading in positive. In Frankfurt the DAX index is trading higher by 21.60 points at 4,859.08 and in London FTSE 100 is trading up by 82.67 points at 4,363.53.

The BSE Capital Goods index advanced by (4.58%) or 537.30 points to close at 12,259.94. Gainers are Suzlon Energy (10.50%), SKF India (7.51%), Kalpat Power T (6.97%), Punj Lloyd (6.01%), L&T Ltd (5.71%) and Alstom Proje (5.12%).

The BSE Realty index gained (3.13%) or 99.77 points to close at 3,289.90. Main gainers are India Bull Real (6.14%), Unitech Ltd (4.91%), Housing Development (3.12%), Mahindra Life (2.98%) and DLF Ltd (2.56%).

The BSE Metal index increased by (2.81%) or 301.61 points at 11,038.99. Scrips that gained are Ispat Industries (7.28%), Tata Steel (5.85%), JSW Steel (5.52%), Welspan Gujarat SR (4.31%) and Jindal Steel (3.99%).

The BSE IT ended higher by (2.32%) or 74.37 points at 3,276.83 on reports that the forthcoming Union Budget may extend the corporate tax holiday enjoyed by export-oriented units and software parks by three more years, as the government looks forward to clearing the air for companies in these segments reeling under a demand slump in key Western markets. Gainers are Financ Tech (6.71%), Mphasisi Tech (6.21%), Oracle Fin (3.83%), Infosys Tech (2.88%) and NIIT Ltd (2.39%).

The BSE Bank index inclined (1.82%) or 145.27 points to close at 8,111.04 on higher advance tax payment in Q1 June 2009. Gainers are Bank of India (6.99%), Yes Bank (4.18%), Canara Bank (3.88%), Indus Ind Bank (3.42%) and Axis Bank (3.22%).

The BSE Power index closed up by (1.81%) or 50.31 points at 2,831.76 as Suzlon Energy (10.50%), Lanco Infra (6.47%), Reliance Infra (5.08%), ABB Ltd (4.40%) and Siemens Ltd (3.49%) ended in positive territory.

Tata Consultancy Services ended up by 0.29%. The company announced the opening of its third global delivery center in Queretaro. This represents a key milestone in the company''s expansion across Latin America and its Global Network Delivery Model, recognized as the benchmark of excellence in software development.

Reliance Infrastructure advanced 5.08% on reports a consortium of the company and Hyundai Engineering is likely to win a contract worth Rs 1500 crore to connect Mumbai''s Bandra-Worli sea link with Haji Ali.

Lupin Ltd gained 0.31% after the company received US drug regulator''s nod for a generic drug.

Trimurthi Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Ltd closed lower by 4.93%. The company has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on June 18, 2009, inter alia, has discussed on the issue of entering into an MOU with SKF life science, Represented by Mr. Arvind Kumar Bhangadia and noted the draft MOU put before the meeting and dicussed on SKF the various terms and conditions and finalized the draft MOU.

Volatility may rise ahead of derivatives expiry


Consolidation is likely to continue after profit booking halted a stupendous fourteen weeks unabated rally on the bourses. Hopes for economic reforms by the Congress-led government send stocks surging. The BSE Sensex is up 4874.58 points or 50.52% in calendar year 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 6361.49 points or 77.95%.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) were the key drivers of the recent solid surge. After being heavy net sellers of Rs 4250.30 crore in January 2009 and to the tune of Rs 2707 crore in February 2009, foreign fund selling eased in March 2009, when they tuned net sellers of only Rs 1.1 crore. Their buying gathered steam in April 2009 when they pumped Rs 7384.50 crore. They continued their buying spree in May 2009 pouring Rs 20,606.80 in equities.

FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,962.40 crore (till 17 June 2009) with their inflow in calendar year 2009 at Rs 26,281.80 crore.

Volatility may rise in the coming week as derivatives contracts for June 2009 series expire on Thursday, 25 June 2009.

Meanwhile, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will adopt the free-float market capitalisation method to calculate its benchmark indices from 26 June 2009 from the existing full-float method. As a result, volatility may swell, as fund managers will realign their index funds portfolios to mirror changes in the benchmark. Weights of public sector undertakings – ONGC, NTPC, Sail, Power Grid Corporation and National Aluminum Company will come down by at least 50% with the index going free float.

Other stocks that will see a drop in weightage to this change in methodology include Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications, Tata Consultancy Services, DLF and Wipro.

However, Infosys Technologies, ICICI Bank, Larsen and Toubro, HDFC and HDFC Bank will stand to gain from this change as their weights will almost double from their current levels.

Under the free-float market capitalisation method, weights are assigned on the basis of floating stocks or open market shares of a company. On the other hand, under the full-float method, weights are decided on the total market capitalisation of the company.

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 23 June 2009 and Wednesday, 24 June 2009 will be the global event to watch out for in the forthcoming week. While the Fed meet not expected to result in any immediate changes to its loose monetary policy the market will examine the post-meeting statement for clues to further direction.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will present the Union Budget on 6 July 2009 while Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee will present the Rail Budget on 3 July 2009. The Annual Economic Survey will be presented on 2 July 2009. The Union Budget 2009 attains significant importance in the wake of the global financial crisis. Despite the country being relatively unharmed compared to the West, the UPA government will have many tasks on its to-do list, which includes boosting growth and demand, continuing to maintain liquidity, balancing inflation and also containing the country's worrying fiscal situation.

The Government has made its intention clear to push for reforms and pursue the disinvestment agenda, which was met with stiff opposition in the UPA's previous stint when the Left parties were members for a major part of the five-year tenure. The Congress party had in its manifesto released before polls promised to go ahead with disinvestment while retaining a majority holding in the state-run companies. Disinvestment programme was earlier put on backburner due to stiff opposition from the Left front.

Also the passage of the Bill to amend the Insurance Act, 1938 is likely to be touched upon in the full Budget. Apart from raising the foreign investment ceiling to 49%, from 26% at present, the Bill had proposed to do away with the stipulation on Indian promoters having to mandatorily sell a part of their holdings after 10 years of operation.

Meanwhile annual monsoon rains are seen reviving around 20 June 2009, reports quoting an unnamed official at India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated on 18 June 2009.

Monsoon rains for the week ended 10 June 2009 was 37% below normal as the progress of the annual rains, crucial to the farm sector, stalled after an early start, IMD said.

Annual monsoon rains between June and September hit the southern coast on 23 May 2009, ahead of normal date of 1 June 2009, but then weakened in last week of May 2009 and first week of June 2009. The outlook is among the nation's most widely watched indicator as monsoon rains are a major influence on output of key crops, economic activity and also affects sentiment in the country's financial markets.

India Strategy - June 17 2009


India Strategy - June 17 2009

India Inflation Fundas


TV Channels blaring that India's inflation rate slipped into the negative for the first time in 30 odd years. What does it really mean ? It really means nothing to the common man!

Prices are still soaring or atleast stable at their peak - and why is this not reflected in the Inflation numbers ?

This is because India calculates Inflation differently than other countries

  • India uses something called the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to calculate and then decide the inflation rate in the economy.
  • Most other developed and developing countries use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to calculate inflation.

Whats the difference between the two ?

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)

WPI, published in 1902, is a economic indicator that was used by many policy makers and it was replaced by CPI by most countries in the 1970s

WPI measures the change in the average price level of goods traded in wholesale market. In India, about 435 commodities data on price level is tracked through WPI. This price index is published on a weekly basis with a lag of about 2 weeks.


Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI or the Consumer Price Index is a statistical time-series measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It tracks the prices of goods and services that consumers actually buy therefore providing a more accurate picture of the inflation.

Although India doesn't officially follow CPI - they do publish the CPI index numbers - however, only monthly with a delay of more than 2 months

While the WPI Inflation numbers have slipped into the negative and is reported to be at -1.6%, the CPI numbers are at a whopping 8.7% as declared for April 2009

Next time the inflation numbers are announced - you know what to make of it :)

Market surges in late trade


The key benchmark indices spurted in late trade led by rally in realty, metal and capital goods stocks. Higher European stocks and gains in US index futures boosted the market in was a highly volatile trading session. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was flat after witnessing wild intraday swings. The BSE 30-share Sensex was provisionally up 259.39 points or 1.82%, up close to 345 points from the day's low. A series of measures by the market regulator to attract investors and boost confidence in the stock market aided the rally.

The market breadth improved in late trade. The breadth had turned weak in afternoon trade in contrast to a positive breadth in early trade.

Volatility was immense. After opening firm on higher Asian stocks, the market came sharply off the higher level. The market bounced back soon with the Sensex hitting fresh intraday high in mid-morning trade. The market pared gains later. It firmed up again in early afternoon trade. A sell-off pulled the market to the day's low in afternoon trade. The market came off the lower level in mid-afternoon trade. The market extended gains in late trade

European shares edged higher on Friday, with banks rising, but carmaker Porsche falling after its results, and following overnight gains in the United States. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up by between 0.5% to 1.81%.

Asian stocks snapped a four-day slide on Friday after upbeat US factory and jobs data provided more evidence that the global economy is recovering from its deep recession. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.55% to 1.61%.

The World Bank yesterday raised its growth forecast for China to 7.2% in 2009, from an earlier prediction of 6.5%.

Trading in the US index futures indicated Dow could rise 27 points at the opening bell today, 19 June 2009.

US markets rose on Thursday, 18 June 2009, after the New York- based Conference Board said its leading economic index rose 1.2% last month, exceeding the 1% gain estimated by economists. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index jumped to the highest level in nine months. The Dow Jones industrials rose 58.42 points, or 0.7%, to 8,555.60. The S&P 500 index added 7.66 points, or 0.8%, to 918.37. But the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.34 points, or less than 0.1%, to 1,807.72.

In other economic data in US, even as initial weekly jobless claims nudged higher, continuing claims dropped for the first time since January this year, to 6.69 million.

Closer home, the Indian government is reportedly examining a proposal to enhance accelerated depreciation benefits on companies' investment in new plant and machinery. If accepted, it could give a fillip to fresh investment in productive capital goods, largely plant and machinery, as companies can reduce their tax outgo in that year. At present, the normal depreciation rate for plant and machinery is at 15% but in the first year in which the investment is made, companies have the option of claiming accelerated depreciation of 35%.

Meanwhile, the stock market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday unveiled a series of measures to attract investors and boost confidence in the stock market. The market regulator approved the "anchor investor" concept under which an investor can subscribe to up to 30% of the quota for institutional investors in an initial public offering. This is in response to the requests of issuers that there was a need for investors with prior commitment who will enhance their ability to sell the issue and bring more confidence.

Sebi has also decided to rationalise disclosure in the rights issues offer documents as information relating to the listed company offering such an issue was already available in public domain for investors. The revised disclosure would make the process of rights issue faster for companies and also reduce overall costs for such issues.

The market regulator also said entry load for investments in mutual funds would be removed, which is expected to result in increased participation. It would also cut registration fees for market intermediaries by about 50%.

Interest rates are falling thanks to ample liquidity in the banking system, low headline inflation which has now slipped into negative zone and a loose monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of India. However, inflation may rise if oil and metal prices which have risen sharply in 2009 continue to rally.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee last Wednesday said banks should provide credit at reasonable rates to spur growth, saying cuts in official rates by the Reserve Bank of India had not been passed on.

Meanwhile, the data on advance tax payments reported this week for the first quarter of the financial year indicated banks and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms have done well in the first quarter, but realty companies continue to perform badly. Automobile sector have also paid higher taxes this year, show the revenue department's initial estimates. Indian companies paid around Rs 23,000 croe in advance tax for the first quarter of FY 2010, almost flat at the previous year's receipts.

Foreign funds have sold shares in last four days after aggressively buying in the past three months or so. As per the provisional data on NSE, the foreign funds sold shares worth Rs 584.87 crore yesterday, 18 June 2009. Foreign funds sold shares totaling Rs 1,169.80 crore in three trading sessions from 15 June 2009 to 17 June 2009. FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,962.40 crore (till 17 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 26,281.80 crore (till 17 June 2009).

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee would present the Union Budget on 6 July 2009. The Railway Budget will be presented on 3 July 2009 and the Economic Survey would be presented on 2 July 2009.

Indian stocks have soared in the past three months on a view that ample global liquidity and a return of risk appetite will help India Inc help raise funds for expansion which in turn will boost corporate profits. India Inc has already raised almost Rs 5,000 crore from three qualified institutional placements (QIPs) so far in 2009 and announced plans to raise another Rs 20,000 crore.

A comfortable victory last month for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in elections for the 15th Lok Sabha has raised hopes for economic reforms. Reforms virtually came to a halt in the past five years of the Congress-led alliance government at the centre, when the Communists provided support to the government from outside for a large part of the five-year term. Left parties are opposed to economic reforms.

Investor expectations from the new government are high. Investors expect financial sector reforms such as increase in the cap on foreign direct investment in insurance sector to 49%, from 26% at present.

Unveiling the agenda of the government, President Pratibha Patil in her speech addressed to a joint session of both houses early this month had indicated government's intension to divest stake in state-run firms. The government, however, intends to retain control over state-run firms and will continue to hold at least 51% stake. But some investors are concerned that the government's two key allies viz. the DMK and Trinamool Congress (TC) may oppose economic reforms.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee recently said there was a need to find ways to bring the economy back to higher growth path without increasing the fiscal deficit. He said the government would focus on infrastructure, agriculture and employment generating sectors to protect growth and jobs.

As per the provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was up 259.39 points or 1.82% to 14,524.92. The Sensex rose 293.55 points at the day's high of 14,559.08 in late trade. At the day's low of 14,179.77, the Sensex fell 85.76 points in mid-afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 61.70 points or 1.45% to 4,313.10 as per the provisional figures.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5,916 crore lower than Rs 7,163.33 crore on Thursday, 18 June 2009.

The market breadth improved in late trade. On BSE, 1,346 shares rose as compared with 1,292 shares that declined. A total of 66 shares remained unchanged. Earlier, the breadth had turned weak in afternoon trade in contrast to a positive breadth in early trade.

From the 30 share Sensex pack 24 stocks rose and rest fell.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.96% and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.94%.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and was almost unchanged at Rs 2,026.25. The stock witnessed high intraday volatile. It hit a high of Rs 2,060 and a low of Rs 1,976.50. The stock declined sharply in the past four days hit by an unfavourable court ruling on gas sales. The Bombay High Court has directed RIL and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) to sign gas supply deal.

The court has asked RIL to supply 28 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmbtu) to RRNL. This is much lower than the price fixed by the government for gas sale from the RIL block in the KG basin at $4.2 million per metric British thermal unit. The lower gas sale price will result in lower-than-expected earnings from gas sales for RIL.

RIL's advance tax payment fell 7.65% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

In January 2009, the Bombay High Court had issued an interim order saying Reliance Industries was allowed to sell gas at $4.2 per million British thermal units from its KG-D6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin off eastern India, pending a final judgment.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales ONGC fell 0.53%. ONGC's advance tax fell 33% to Rs 890.50 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Metal stocks rose after LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.54% yesterday, recovering from a four day slide. Sterlite Industries, Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, Jindal Steel, Steel Authority of India rose by between 0.29% to 3.88%.

India's largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel rose 6.17% on reports the company has raised prices of hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils by up to 2%. Its advance tax payment fell 36.39% to Rs 230 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Capital goods stocks rose on hopes the government may boost spending on the infrastructure sector. Siemens, Thermax, BEML, ABB, Punj Lloyd, rose by between 0.02% to 7.24%.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro rose 6.14% as advance tax payment rose 15.79% to Rs 110 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) rose 3.3% after the minister of heavy industries Vilasrao Deshmukh said the government will "positively" consider selling stake in the state-run engineering firm. The government will also encourage big state engineering firms to expand globally, Deshmukh told reporters. Separately, the ministry said Bhel would sign agreements with two state utilities for power joint ventures and extend its agreement with Siemens AG for steam turbines and generators.

Rate sensitive realty stocks rose on expectations that stability at the Centre will attract more money from foreign investors into the sector which in turn will boost growth. DLF, Omaxe, Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech rose by between 1.9% to 6.14%.

Unitech and Indiabulls Real Estate, have already raised funds through qualified institutional placements (QIPs). A number of other realty funds have decided to raised funds by way of QIPs. The promoters of DLF last month sold a 10% stake in the secondary equity markets.

Telecom stocks rose after the telecom minister said on Friday the Indian government is likely to take a decision within a week on the reserve price for the pending 3G spectrum auction. Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications and Idea Cellular rose by between 0.04% to 2.69%.

Economic reports pull up US stocks


Best gains for US stocks in almost two weeks

US stocks ended modestly higher but in a mixed mode on Thursday, 18 June. Couple of encouraging economic reports took stocks higher right out of the gate today. With the help of financial and healthcare sectors, Dow traded quite strong. The initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia index report both checked in line with expectations. But the tech heavy Nasdaq failed to cling to its gains. Trading volume was exceptionally low.

The advance was broad-based as six of the ten major sectors ended din the green today. Stocks logged their best single-session advance by percent in two weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended higher by 58 points at 8,555. The Nasdaq Composite Index, ended almost unchanged at 1,807. S&P 500 ended higher 7.8 points at 918.

CocoCola, JP Morgan, Mc Donalds, Kraft Foods and Merck were the main Dow winners. Caterpillar, Chevron, H-P, GE and Microsoft were the main Dow laggards.

Weakness among semiconductors weighed on tech stocks and caused the Nasdaq to underperform the other indices.

There were quite a few economic reports scheduled today. All checked in better than expected and tried boosting overall market sentiments.

The Labor Department reported on Thursday, 18 June, 2009 that continuing U.S. jobless claims took a big drop in the latest week that ended on 6 June, 2009, in a sign that fewer people are having trouble finding employment. Continuing claims fell by 148,000 to 6.68 million during the week ended 6 June, the lowest level in about a month. The four-week average of continuing claims rose, however, by 2,250 to 6.75 million. It was the first time continuing claims fell since early January.

Initial claims, meanwhile, rose slightly in the week ended 13 June, up by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000. The four-week average of initial claims fell by 7,000 to 615,750.

The improved tone also came today after the Philadelphia Fed Index showed a much smaller-than-expected decline for June. According to the data, the regional report came in with a -2.2 reading. It was expected to come in at -17.

In a separate report, the Conference Board said on Thursday that the recession is "losing steam" and a slow U.S. recovery should begin by the end of the year. The Board announced that the index of leading economic indicators rose 1.2% in May, the second straight increase. The leading index is up 1.2% in the past six months, the first increase since April 2007.

Among the earning reports for the day, Research In Motion said today that earnings for its first fiscal quarter jumped 33% on strong sales of the company's line of BlackBerry smart phones, beating Wall Street's estimates.

Crude for July delivery ended up 34 cents, or 0.5%, at $71.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had climbed as high as $71.75 a barrel earlier but also fell to $69.75.

Earning season has come to the fag end. There are no economic reports scheduled tomorrow.

Pre Session Commentary - June 19 2009


Today domestic markets are likely to open positive as majority of Asian markets have opened in green. The US jobless claim data is inline with expectations and shows a down trend. In the domestic arena inflation for the week ended June 6 slipped to negative at -1.6%, which is first time since 1977-78. There could be some buying across specific sectors which are rate sensitive as the negative inflation data gives space for further rate cut by RBI. Mid cap and Small cap stocks might be lime light today.

On Thursday, the domestic markets closed in red for the third consecutive day. After a subdued opening the markets traded lackluster during the first two hours of trade. The weak sentiments across Asian markets trapped the domestic traders as well. As the day progressed, the markets slid towards the southward with intense selling pressure on Realty, Metal, Power and CG that lost 5.80%, 4.88%, 3.83% and 3.73% respectively. Mid cap and Small cap suffered major blow as they lost 2.87% and 3.70% respectively. We expect the markets to be trading volatile.

The BSE Sensex closed with a loss of 257.31 points at 14,265.53 and NSE Nifty ended with massive loss of 104.75 points at 4,251.40. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 144.21 points and 214.10 points at 4,876.86 and 5,572.44 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 14,630.73 and intraday low of 14,188.25.

On Thursday, the US Markets closed mixed. The markets opened with a broad based gain as six of ten sectors in the S&P 500 posted gains. Sectors like health care, financials, utilities and consumer staples were the out performers of the day as they gained by 2.2%, 2.5%, 2.3% and 1.9% respectively. On the other hand, retailers and semiconductors were the laggards with losses of 1.3% and 1.89%. The broad-based gains came on the back of the latest jobless claims report of 608,000 initial claims which were filed for the week ending June 13. The initial claims were in line with expectations and continuing claims stood at 6.69 million. The US light crude oil for July delivery closed higher by 0.3% at $71.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed high by 58.42 points at 8,555.60 the NASDAQ Composite (RIXF) index closed flat at 1,8070.72 and the S&P 500 (SPX) closed high by 7.66 points at 918.37.

Today major stock markets in Asia are trading positive. Hang Seng is up by 87.68 points at 17,864.34. Shanghai Composite is up by 9.715 points at 2,863.618. Japan''s Nikkei is trading high by 38.28 points at 9,742. Strait Times is also up by 26.60 points at 2,263.80. KLSE Composite is low by 16.49 points at 1,054.41.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. However, losers outnumbered the gainers. In the telecom space, MTNL was down 6.71% and Tata Communication was down 2.76%. In the banking space, ICICI Bank was down 3.02% while HDFC Bank was up 2.68%. In the IT space, Wipro was down 0.43%, Patni Computers was down 0.49%, Satyam Computers was unchanged while Infosys was up 0.14%. In other sectors, Sterlite Industries was down 1.21%, while Dr Reddy''s Labs was up 1.26% and Tata Motors was up 4.15%.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net sellers in equity and debt. The Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 2,168.30 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 189.50 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 2,394.80 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 225.20 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs (226.60) Crore and Rs (35.70) Crore respectively.

On Thursday, the partially convertible rupee closed at 48.21/22 per dollar, 0.2% weaker than its previous close at 48.13/14. The local currency exuded weakness due to fall in local stock markets on the back of weak global cues.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 50.96 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 7,163.33 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded was 118.41 Crore and total turnover was Rs 20,841.04 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 102843767 shares, Suzlon Energy with 63850054 shares, DLF with 19118791 shares, NTPC with 17986902 shares, followed by Tata Steel with 16089838 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 876226 with a total turnover of Rs 18,335.05 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 478366 with a total turnover of Rs 26,529.78 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1624557 with a total turnover of Rs 36,098.99 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 49982 and notional turnover was Rs 2,972.85 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 4,176 and resistance at 4,348 and BSE Sensex has support at 14,058 and resistance at 14,475.

Market may open in green tracking positive Asia


The key benchmark indices may open higher on positive Asia. However selling by the foreign funds this week after the recent aggressive buying in Indian stocks may cap gains. The market regulator's series of measures announced yesterday to boost investor confidence in stock markets may support the market.

Asian stocks rose today as better-than-estimated U.S. economic reports boosted the dollar. The key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan rose by between 0.18% to 1.04%.

US markets posted yet another flat close yesterday, however some encouraging economic reports fueled recovery hopes. The market was boosted on treasury announcement of a record 104 billion dollar worth of bond auctions for next week. The Dow Jones industrials rose 58.42 points, or 0.7%, to 8,555.60. The S&P 500 index added 7.66 points, or 0.8%, to 918.37, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.34 points, or less than 0.1%, to 1,807.72.

In economic data in US, in weekly jobless claims, even as initial claims nudged higher, continuing claims dropped for the first time since January this year, to 6.69 million. The Philadelphia Fed reported that its index of manufacturing conditions improved to minus 2.2 against minus 22.6 in May 2009.Leading indicators rose for a second consecutive month, climbing 1.2 % in May 2009, the largest gain since March 2004.

Back home, the government reportedly is examining a proposal to enhance accelerated depreciation benefits on companies' investment in new plant and machinery. If accepted, it could give a fillip to fresh investment in productive capital goods, largely plant and machinery, as companies can reduce their tax outgo in that year.

At present, the normal depreciation rate for plant and machinery is at 15% but in the first year in which the investment is made, companies have the option of claiming accelerated depreciation of 35%.

India's capital markets regulator on Thursday unveiled a series of measures to attract investors and boost confidence in the stock market The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approved the "anchor investor" concept under which an investor can subscribe to up to 30 % of the quota for institutional investors in an initial public offering. This is in response to the requests of issuers that there was a need for investors with prior commitment who will enhance their ability to sell the issue and bring more confidence. SEBI had also decided to rationalise disclosure in the rights issues offer documents as information relating to the listed company offering such an issue was already available in public domain for investors. The revised disclosure would make the process of rights issue faster for companies and also reduce overall costs for such issues. The market regulator also said entry load for investments in mutual funds would be removed, which is expected to result in increased participation. It would also cut registration fees for market intermediaries by about 50 %.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index declined 1.6% in the year through 6 June 2009 compared with the previous week's annual rise of 0.13%, data released by the government today, 18 June 2009, showed. That's the first drop since December 1978, according to the central bank's monthly data.

Interest rates are falling thanks to ample liquidity in the banking system, low headline inflation and a loose monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of India. However, inflation may rise if oil and metal prices which have risen sharply in 2009 continue to rally.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee last Wednesday said banks should provide credit at reasonable rates to spur growth, saying cuts in official rates by the Reserve Bank of India had not been passed on.

Meanwhile, the data on advance tax payments reported this week for the first quarter of the financial year indicated banks and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms have done well in the first quarter, but realty companies continue to perform badly. Automobile sector have also paid higher taxes this year, show the revenue department's initial estimates. Indian companies paid around Rs 23,000 croe in advance tax for the first quarter of FY 2010, almost flat at the previous year's receipts.

Foreign funds have sold shares in last four days after aggressively buying in the past three months or so. As per the provisional data on NSE, the foreign funds sold shares worth Rs 584.87 crore yesterday, 18 June 2009. Foreign funds sold shares totaling Rs 1,169.80 crore in three trading sessions from 15 June 2009 to 17 June 2009. FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,962.40 crore (till 17 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 26,281.80 crore (till 17 June 2009).

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee would present the Union Budget on 6 July 2009. The Railway Budget will be presented on 3 July 2009 and the Economic Survey would be presented on 2 July 2009.

Indian stocks have soared in the past three months on a view that ample global liquidity and a return of risk appetite will help India Inc help raise funds for expansion which in turn will boost corporate profits. India Inc has already raised almost Rs 5,000 crore from three qualified institutional placements (QIPs) so far in 2009 and announced plans to raise another Rs 20,000 crore.

A comfortable victory last month for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in elections for the 15th Lok Sabha has raised hopes for economic reforms. Reforms virtually came to a halt in the past five years of the Congress-led alliance government at the centre, when the Communists provided support to the government from outside for a large part of the five-year term. Left parties are opposed to economic reforms.

Investor expectations from the new government are high. Investors expect financial sector reforms such as increase in the cap on foreign direct investment in insurance sector to 49%, from 26% at present.

Unveiling the agenda of the government, President Pratibha Patil in her speech addressed to a joint session of both houses early this month had indicated government's intension to divest stake in state-run firms. The government, however, intends to retain control over state-run firms and will continue to hold at least 51% stake. But some investors are concerned that the government's two key allies viz. the DMK and Trinamool Congress (TC) may oppose economic reforms.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee recently said there was a need to find ways to bring the economy back to higher growth path without increasing the fiscal deficit. He said the government would focus on infrastructure, agriculture and employment generating sectors to protect growth and jobs.

SGX Nifty Live Update - June 19 2009


4,299.5 +17.5

Daily News Roundup - June 19 2009


Infosys files advance prospectus with SEC to register new securities.(BL)

TCS opened its third delivery unit in Mexico, plans to hire 500 professionals during the current year for that facility. (FE)

Unitech to sell more properties to raise funds in 2009-10. (BL)

Tech Mahindra gets approval from US anti-trust authority regarding its open offer for purchase of an additional 20% stake in Satyam Computers. (BL)

DLF has decided against selling its core assets which it had put on the block as the banks have resumed lending to the company. (ET)

IOC’s refining margin may go up to US$5a barrel in Q1. (BL)

JSW Steel and Essar Steel are likely to ramp up production at mills in North America. (BS)

Jaiprakash Associates raised Rs5bn through the sale of 250mn treasury shares. (ET)

Reliance Infrastructure and Hyundai Engineering is expected to bag the contract to connect Bandra-Worli Sealink with Haji Ali at an estimated Rs15bn. (ET)

JSPL, JSW Stainless, Hindustan Zinc and NALCO face the prospect of losing their allotment of captive coal mines as the Ministry issues show-cause notices for failing to achieve key milestones. (ET)

Sesa Goa plans to export 0.5mn tons of iron ore fines. (ET)

Tata Motors plans to set up exclusive showrooms for JLR in smaller towns as a part of its India specific marketing and distribution strategy. (ET)

HDFC and HDFC Bank have trimmed deposit rates by 25bps across various maturities. (FE)

Shree Renuka Sugar plans to expand its capacity to 2,000 tons/day from 1,000 tons/day at its Athani unit in Karnataka. (FE)

Dish TV to invest Rs16bn in 2 years. (BS)

UTV to invest Rs2.7bn in gaming, including an acquisition and investments in intellectual properties. (BS)

Sterlite Technologies, backed by Chinese vendor Huawei, bags Rs2.5bn contract by BSNL. (BL)

AP government is mulling options of scrapping Rs122bn Hyderabad Metro rail project deal with Maytas Infra-led consortia. (BL)

Havells expects Rs5bn in export earnings over 3 years. (BL)

Royal Orchid Hotels plans to quadruple the number of rooms from the current 1,000 rooms. (BL)

Godrej group sets up M&A cell to explore opportunities in India and abroad. (BL)

MTNL is looking for new call centre operator in Mumbai circle. (BL)

iGate to hire 400 people this year. (BL)

LIC seeks permission of IRDA to raise stake in PSBs beyond 10%. (BL)

US based auto component giant Visteon has approached Amtek Auto for the sale of its plants and business. (ET)

ITC Foods, the foods division of ITC, is likely to report a maiden profit this year. (ET)

Elder Pharmaceuticals has signed an agreement with US based MD Anderson Cancer Center to conduct human experiments for its newly discovered anti-cancer drug. (ET)

Air India and SpiceJet announced an increase in fuel surcharge of Rs400/ticket. (FE)

IIFCL disburses Rs54bn for various infrastructure projects. (ET)

Deep Industries bagged Rs296mn contract from ONGC for charter hiring. (FE)

Indowind Energy to invest Rs1bn this fiscal. (BL)

Pyramid Saimira board will meet on June 26 to consider raising funds by placing shares with QIB. (FE)

Inflation dips to sub zero level, fell by -1.6% for the week ended June 06. (ET)

Government plans to give more depreciation sops to companies investing in new plant and machinery. (ET)

Government intends to sell available 3G airwaves for Rs214bn. (ET)

Center plans to accelerate implementation of multi-product SEZs. (ET)

Government plans to speed up the process of assigning environmental clearances for coal projects. (FE)

Government plans to extend the deadline for raw sugar import under open general license to March ’10. (FE)

I&B ministry moots five-year tax break for digital TV services. (BL)

DOT has now enough 3G bandwith for 11 players in six circles. (BL)

Finance ministry likely to withdraw Commodity Transaction Tax. (BS)

Dehydrated bulls pray for gain!


The drought stresses trees!

It’s not just the trees or the bulls that are feeling stressed. The last thing India needs is a drought. The protracted lull in the monsoon is causing dizziness all around literally. After a nearly 8% drop, we are poised for a rebound, though broadly the trend would continue to be volatile in the run up to the budget. India Inc’s latest report card will also have a bearing for sure.

We expect a higher opening. Asian markets are trading up. Markets in the US and Europe too eked out modest gains. The trend has turned choppy after a three-month rally as the current stock prices already discount moderation in recession. Stocks will continue to face some resistance given that the recovery process will be slow.

Instead of focusing on every day swings in key indices, one should adopt a stock-centric approach. The market will remain in a consolidation phase in the near term after the stupendous run we have had. Budget could provide the next big impetus. At the same time, there could be some disappoints too.

Corporate earnings will also be mostly in line with expectations, without any big surprises on either side. One big factor that has the potential to drive markets higher will be fund flows from overseas investors. FII inflows have been good over the past few months, though they have started receding a bit in recent days. However, with India expected to perform much better than some of the battered mature economies, overall trend in FII flows is likely to remain positive.

India Foils to re-list today. Watch out for United Spirits and Idea Cellular.

Results Today: ABG Shipyard, Berger Paints, DCB, Emkay Global, Four Soft, Himatsingka Siede, Man Industries and Marico.

FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Thursday at Rs5.85bn while the local institutions pumped in Rs5.39bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs3.12bn. On Wednesday, FIIs were net sellers at Rs2.27bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs1.79bn on the same day.

US equity benchmarks closed mixed yet again, but this time the blue chips managed moderate gains while the technology shares languished. Blue chips managed to advance after encouraging signs in the day's labor market and manufacturing reports, but the gains were modest.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 58 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 index rose 7 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was barely changed.

A three-month rally has lost steam over the last week as bets that the pace of the recession is easing have turned to worries about expensive stock valuations.

The S&P 500 rallied 40% between March 9, when it hit a 12-year low, and the end of last week. But it has pulled back so far this week. As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 was up 35.5% off of the lows. Markets in Europe and Asia have pulled back too.

Trading was also being influenced by quadruple options expiration, a quarterly event on a Friday in which stock index futures and options and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time.

BlackBerry maker Research in Motion was likely to slide Friday morning. After the close, the company reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and higher quarterly revenue that missed estimates. The company also forecast current-quarter earnings that are above forecasts and sales at the low end of forecasts. Shares slumped 5% in after-hours trading.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testified before lawmakers, defending President Obama's new reforms for financial regulation.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose slightly last week to 608,000 from a revised 605,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department reported. Economists expected 604,000 claims. But continuing claims slumped for the first time since the week ended Jan. 3. Continuing claims refer to people who have been collecting claims for a week or more.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a reading on regional manufacturing, improved to negative 2.2 from negative 22.6 last month. Economists expected a reading of negative 17. In addition, the index's measure of future activity surged to its highest level since September 2003.

An index of leading economic indicators rose 1.2% in May, the Conference Board reported. LEI gained 1.1% in April and was expected to increase 1% last month.

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.83% from 3.69% on Wednesday.

US light crude oil for July delivery rose 34 cents to settle at $71.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $1.40 to settle at $934.60 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets mostly ended higher.

For the week ended June 10, EPFR Global, a provider of fund flows and asset allocation data, said US Equity Funds attracted US$3.4bn, the biggest weekly inflow since mid-December. Amid such flows; however large reserves of cash still remain on the sidelines.

European bourses tracked gains on Wall Street after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its business activity index rose to its highest level since last September, drastically outperforming market forecasts.


Indian markets extended losses on Thursday with the NSE Nifty index losing over 5% or 318 points and the BSE Sensex shedding 6.2% or 947 points in last four trading sessions.

Markets witnessed heavy selling after the NSE Nifty broke below the 4,360 levels which was the 26 day moving average. Nifty's 100 DMA (Day moving Average) for the second straight trading session failed to cross over the 200 DMA keeping the traders in a limbo. If the 100 DMA breaches the 200 DMA from below the signal is considered to be a bullish one.

The Realty, Metals, Power and the Capital Goods stocks were among the major losers and even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks witnessing some offloading. However, bucking the negative trend were, the IT stocks, the IT index gained 0.2%.

India’s inflation slipped into the negative terrain for the first time in more than 30 years. Annual rate of inflation fell to -1.61% for the week ended June 6, 2009 as compared to 0.13% for the previous week ended May 30, 2009 and 11.66% during the corresponding week of the previous year.

On Thursday, the Sensex dropped 257 points or 1.7% to end at 14,265 after touching a high of 14,630 and a low of 14,188. The index had opened at 14,503 against the previous close of 14,523.

The NSE Nifty declined 104 points or 2% to shut shop at 4,251.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Realty index was the top loser declining 5.2%, followed by the BSE Metal index down 4.4%, BSE Power index down 3.6%, BSE Capital Goods index down 3.6% and BSE PSU index down 3.2%.

In the Sensex, the major losers were, ACC, JP Associates, Tata Steel, Grasim, NTPC, Hindalco, ONGC, Reliance Infra, L&T and BHEL. SBI, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Infosys, Bharti and TCS were the gainers among the 30-components of Sensex.

Outside the frontline indices, the top loser included Aban Offshore, Max India, GMDC, Moser Baer, Bhushan Steel and Ispat Industries.

Among the big gainers in the broader market were Mphasis, Marico, TTML, IDBI Bank, Biocon, GVK Power, Andhra Bank and OBC.

Aviation stocks were beaten down badly with stocks like Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines losing over 5% each.

However, SpiceJet surged to higher altitude after the low cost carrier on Thursday announced that it had hiked fuel surcharge on tickets by Rs400 per passenger following a steep increase in jet fuel prices.

The stock surged by over 6% to Rs21.10 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs21.9 and a low of Rs20.35 and recorded volumes of over 9.2mn shares on BSE.

Jet Airways also decided to increase its fuel surcharge by Rs.400/- on all domestic sectors w.e.f. tickets purchased starting 17th June.

This will be applicable on all flights of Jet Airways, Jet Airways Konnect and JetLite. The increase was necessitated by sharp increase in ATF prices by 33% since March 2009.

Shares of Kalpataru Power slumped by over 7% to Rs671 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs726 and an intra-day low of Rs651 recording volumes of over 93,000 shares on NSE.

According to reports, the Maharashtra government has decided to cancel a Rs.9.98bn contract awarded to Kalpataru Power due to alleged delay in installation of transmission feeders to separate household and agricultural customers.

Shares of JSW Steel plunged by over 9% to Rs573 after reports stated that Sajjan Jindal proposes to sell 10% of his holding in JSW Steel to raise resources.

However, the founder, Sajjan Jindal later clarified that this was absolutely false, baseless and misleading and we strongly deny these reports.

He further clarified that the board of directors of the company approved an enabling resolution to raise resources upto US$1bn through equity and quasi equity instruments including QIP placement subject to approval of shareholders with an intention primarily to deleverage the Company.

Inflation in negative zone at 1.61%


Pressure rise on food and interest rates to move southwards

Week on week inflation has been hovering around sub zero level and finally it has entered into negative zone. Inflation has dipped to negative for the first time since 1976-77, thanks to the higher base effect. The WPI based inflation recorded a fall of 1.1% in 1975-76 (base year being 1970-71=100). The substantial fall in inflation which continuing from August 2008 has become powerless to cheer up the end users due to the growth in food inflation. Rising cost of food articles has become the worrisome for the end users.

The official Wholesale Price Index for all commodities for the week ended 6 June 2009 rose by 0.04 % to 232.7 from 232.6 for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at -1.61 % for the week ended 6 June 2009 as compared to 0.13 % for the previous week and 11.66 % during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The index for primary articles declined 0.7% on fall in food article index. The index for food articles group declined by 1.2 % to 250.8 from 253.9 for the previous week due to lower prices of fruits and vegetables (7%), fish-marine (2%) and urad and gram (1% each). However, the prices of arhar (7%), jowar and eggs (3% each), masur and maize (2% each) and moong, mutton, ragi, condiments & spices and bajra (1% each) moved up.

However on year on year basis the index of primary articles moved up 6% while food articles also grew up by 9%. The yearly growth in these index has been reflected in higher CPI numbers.

The index of fuel, power, light and lubricants rose by 0.7 %to 326.2 from 324.0 for the previous week due to higher prices of furnace oil and naphtha (7% each) and light diesel oil (4%). However, the prices of bitumen (3%) declined.

One of the major index in India's WPI basket, that is manufactured product rose by 0.1 % to 203.8 from 203.5 for the previous week. The all-major contributors like food product, textile group, rubber and plastic product, basic metals and alloys index move up from their previous week level. The index for textiles group rose by 0.2 % to 141.7 from 141.4 for the previous week due to higher prices of polyester staple fibre (3%) and hessian cloth (1%). The index for basic metals alloys and metal products group rose marginally to 255.4 from 255.3 for the previous week due to higher prices of lead ingots (4%) and foundry pig iron and basic pig iron (1% each).

The hike in minimum support price, growing demand for oilseed, decline in food credit by commercial bank led to increase in a food prices. In addition to this delay of monsoon craft an anxiety about the kharip agricultural food production. If the output fails to achieve the predictable level of production then fear of price rise will escalate.

The constant fall in inflation give additional room for expansionary monetary policy action. However decline in WPI is not the only sole factor for softening key interest rate. The other factors like liquidity condition, revival in consumer demand, elevated level of CPI also needs to be considered while commenting on general economy outlook. In addition to this recovery in global commodity prices especially in crude oil create fear of price rise. The negative inflation is short lived looking at the strong domestic consumption demand which can drive growth and thus inflation remaining below sub zero levels is unsustainable for a longer period.

Negative inflation numbers are adding stress on interest rate to move southwards. Recent inflation numbers will change the direction of interest rate in India.

FIIs continue selling


Outflow of Rs 226.50 crore on 17 June 2009

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 226.50 crore on Wednesday, 17 June 2009, much lower than Rs 711.80 crore on Tuesday, 16 June 2009.

FII outflow of Rs 226.50 crore on 17 June 2009 was a result of gross purchases Rs 2,168.30 crore and gross sales Rs 2,394.80 crore. The BSE Sensex lost 435.07 points, or 2.91%, to 14,522.84 on that day.

FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,962.40 crore (till 17 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 26,281.80 crore (till 17 June 2009).

There are a total of 1665 foreign funds registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

Precious metals end little lower


Gold and silver drop as reports indicate recovery of US economy

Precious metal ended little lower on Thursday, 18 June, 2009. Encouraging batch of economic reports hinting at a possible recovery of the US economy in the near term decreased the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Thursday, gold for August delivery ended at $934.5, lower by $1.4 (0.1%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 2.3%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 8%.

Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%. It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. Before this, gold had suffered losses in prior two months. For the month of April and March, 2009, gold had lost 3.7% and 2.1% respectively. But the metal gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (10%) since then.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for July delivery fell 4 cents (0.3%) at $14.24 an ounce. Last week, silver ended lower by 3.3%. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades. Year to date, silver has climbed 29.5% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

The Labor Department reported on Thursday, 18 June, 2009 that continuing U.S. jobless claims took a big drop in the latest week that ended on 6 June, 2009, in a sign that fewer people are having trouble finding employment. Continuing claims fell by 148,000 to 6.68 million during the week ended 6 June, the lowest level in about a month. The four-week average of continuing claims rose, however, by 2,250 to 6.75 million.

Separately, the Conference Board said on Thursday that the recession is "losing steam" and a slow U.S. recovery should begin by the end of the year. The Board announced that the index of leading economic indicators rose 1.2% in May, the second straight increase. The leading index is up 1.2% in the past six months, the first increase since April 2007.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed higher by Rs 24 (0.16%) at Rs 14,534 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,640 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,515 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for July delivery closed Rs 19 (0.08%) lower at Rs 22,713/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 22,755/kg and fell to a low of Rs 22,617/Kg during the day's trading.

Crude ends little higher


Demand chances take prices higher after a day of volatile trading

Crude oil prices ended little higher on Thursday, 18 June, 2009 at Nymex. Encouraging batch of economic reports hinting at a possible recovery of the US economy in the near term raised the possibility of higher demand of crude in coming months. Yesterday's weekly inventory report showing more than expected draw in crude inventories for last week also helped crude end higher.

On Thursday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for July delivery closed at $71.37/barrel (lower by $0.34 or 0.5%). During intra day trading, crude fell to a low of $69.6 and also rose to a high of $71.75. Last week, crude ended higher by 5.3%.

Crude ended the month of May, 2009, higher by 30%. This was the largest month gain for crude in almost a decade. Prior to May, crude ended April and March, 2009 higher by 2.9% and 10.9% respectively. It rallied 11.3% in the first quarter. Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 51% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 42%.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for July delivery fell 4 cents (0.3%) at $14.24 an ounce. Last week, silver ended lower by 3.3%. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades. Year to date, silver has climbed 29.5% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

The Labor Department reported on Thursday, 18 June, 2009 that continuing U.S. jobless claims took a big drop in the latest week that ended on 6 June, 2009, in a sign that fewer people are having trouble finding employment. Continuing claims fell by 148,000 to 6.68 million during the week ended 6 June, the lowest level in about a month. The four-week average of continuing claims rose, however, by 2,250 to 6.75 million.

EIA reported yesterday that crude supplies decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week to stand at 357.7 million barrels for the week ended 12 June, 2009. Market had expected a decline of 1.7 million barrels. EIA also reported that gasoline inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels during the week and distillate inventories rose by 0.3 million barrels last week. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3 million barrels per day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year.

Also at the Nymex on Thursday, July reformulated gasoline slid 0.2% to $2.0295 a gallon, and July heating oil fell 1.4% to $1.837 a gallon.

July natural gas fell 16 cents, or 3.8%, to $4.093 per million British thermal units. EIA reported today that U.S. natural gas inventories rose 114 billion cubic feet in the week ended 12 June. At current consumption levels of 23.2 trillion cubic feet a year, the reserves can support 89 years of consumption.

Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.

At the MCX, crude oil for July delivery closed at Rs 3,478/barrel, higher by Rs 61 (1.78%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for July delivery closed at Rs 209/mmbtu, lower by Rs 3.1/mmbtu (1.4%).