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Thursday, January 21, 2010

That Tightening feeling again!


We can let circumstances rule us, or we can take charge and rule our lives from within.

Possibilities of further monetary tightening by China spooked world markets even as investors mulled results from top US banks. Tightening fears may not be misplaced after all, China’s Q4 GDP accelerated to 10.7% from 8.9% in Q3.

The dollar and the yen rose and commodity-linked currencies dropped. Lingering worries over possible debt troubles pressured the euro. The Dow fell 122 points in the steepest fall since mid-December. Meanwhile, the World Bank says the global economy is set for a tepid rebound and may run out of steam later this year.

We expect a shaky start as most Asian markets are in red or flat. The outlook remains murky. The key indices will continue to consolidate at least till the RBI policy meet. Budget will be another major event as it will indicate the Government’s views on ‘stimulus exit’.

India Infoline Q3 Consolidated Income was up 39% yoy and Net Profit rose 100% yoy. Income stood at Rs3.19bn, up 1.9 % QoQ and 38.7% yoy. PBT was at Rs968.5mn, up 113.5% yoy.

We expect ONGC to report 21% YoY growth in revenues and 107.6% YoY jump in PAT. ICICI Bank is expected to post 7.2% YoY gain in its net interest income while net profit is forecast to grow 15.1% YoY.

Results Today: Abhishek Ind, ACE, Adhunik Metaliks, Amara Raja Batteries, Apar Ind, Asahi India, BHEL, Biocon, Brigade, GSFC, ICICI Bank, Idea, IBull Power, IBull Realty, Indotech Transformers, Indraprastha Gas, ING Vysya Bank, Ipca Labs, JSW Energy, Jubilant Organosys, Kirloskar Oil, Kotak Bank, L&T, M&M Financial, Ngarjuna Fertilizers, NDTV, Network 18, ONGC, Petronet LNG, Piramal Healthcare, Rolta, Sasken, Shree Cement, United Spirits, Welspun Gujarat, WWIL and Zensar Tech.

FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Wednesday at Rs2.71bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs3.44bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs54.2mn. As per the SEBI figures, FIIs were net sellers of Rs4.51bn in the cash segment on Tuesday.

US stocks slumped as a strong dollar and speculation about China's lending curbs slammed commodities, one of the leaders of the recent rally. IBM dragged on the technology sector as investors picked apart the company's outlook one day after sending the stock higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 122 points, or 1.1%, after having fallen as much as 207 points in the morning. The S&P 500 index lost 12 points, or 1%. The Nasdaq composite gave back 29 points, or 1.3%.

A stronger dollar pressured dollar-traded commodity prices and stocks. The sector was also hit by reports that China intends to slow the pace of lending this year in an attempt to get ahead of inflation.

China's efforts to get their banks to lend less really hit commodities hard, because China is the marginal buyer of commodities.

Commodities and commodity stocks were among the big leaders of the rally over the last year and the weakness in the sector dragged on the broader market on Wednesday.

Commodities were also under pressure in reaction to the dollar, which firmed up in comparison to a weak euro and in response to the surprise Republican senatorial victory in Massachusetts.

Investors were assessing the surprise Republican election to the Massachusetts Senate seat previously held by the late Ted Kennedy. The upset victor could kill health care reform by ending the Democrats' majority in the Senate. Additionally, House Democrats are opposed to the idea of passing the Senate health care bill.

IBM and the techs led stocks higher on Tuesday and IBM and the techs were among the biggest drags Wednesday, as investors backtracked one day after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at the highest levels since Sept. 2008.

IBM reported higher quarterly sales and earnings late Tuesday that topped estimates. But investors took a "sell the news" approach and sent shares almost 3% lower on Wednesday.

IBM said it earned $3.59 per share versus $3.28 a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters thought it would earn $3.47 per share. Sales inched up to $27.23 billion from $27 billion in the prior year versus forecasts for a drop to $26.96 billion.

Looking forward, IBM said it expects earnings per share of at least $11 for 2010.

Starbucks reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates thanks largely to growth at stores open a year or more, a retail metric known as same-store sales.

Dow component Bank of America said losses widened to $5.2 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, partly due to the bank paying back government bailout funds. BofA said the repayments shaved $4 billion off its bottom line.

The company was expected to post a loss of $3.9 billion, according to forecasts. On a per-share basis, BofA lost 60 cents versus forecasts for a loss of 52 cents. Shares were barely changed.

Morgan Stanley reported its second-straight quarterly profit, one year after posting a massive loss. The financial firm said it earned $617 million for the quarter versus a loss of $11 billion a year ago. The stock fell around 1.7%.

Wells Fargo reported a surprise profit of $2.82 billion, or 8 cents a share, versus forecasts for a small loss. The bank benefited from stronger fee income, even as it repaid $25 billion in bailout money. Shares fell 1.6%.

Building permits, a measure of builder confidence, rose to a 653,000 unit annual rate in December from a 589,000 rate in November, the government reported. Permits were expected to rise to a 590,000 rate, according to a consensus of economists.

But housing starts fell to a 557,000 unit annual rate from a 580,000 unit rate in November. Economists thought starts would fall to a 572,000 unit rate.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, rose 0.2% in December after climbing 1.8% in the previous month. Economists thought it would hold steady. The so-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat versus forecasts for a gain of 0.1%. Core PPI rose 0.5% in the prior month.

The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

COMEX gold for February delivery fell $27.40 to settle at $1,112.60 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

US light crude oil for February delivery fell $1.87 to settle at $77.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Treasury prices rose in a classic flight-to-quality, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.65% from 3.69% late on Tuesday.

European shares fell with miners leading decliners amid speculation China has ordered a curb on bank lending. Backing off Tuesday's 15-month closing high, the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index lost 1.5% to 256.46.

The euro hit a five-month low in the session against the dollar. Worries about Greece's budget problems also hurt sentiment.

The Greek ASE Composite index fell 3.4% to 2,030.28, while the German DAX index lost 2.1% to 5,851.53, the French CAC-40 index declined 2% to 3,928.95 and the U.K. FTSE 100 index shed 1.7% to 5,420.80.

The Indian market ended on a flat note but off the day’s low amid continued volatility as investors mulled a spate of results. A healthy start was marred by selling pressure around noon when equity markets across Asia lost ground led by China on reports that Chinese regulators have asked some banks to limit their lending.

Chinese stocks slid, dragging the region’s benchmark to its third straight decline, after the news. The dollar gained against 14 of 16 of the most-traded currencies while the euro tumbled to a four-month low against the dollar.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.9% and Hang Seng Index slipped 1.9%, leading declines in Asia. The Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% to 124.44 at 5 p.m. in Tokyo. US stock futures were negative. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.3% to 259.59 at 8 a.m. in London.

Back home, among the BSE sectoral indices, Realty, Oil & Gas and FMCG led the decline today. Even the PSU stocks, which have been on fire lately on disinvestment trigger, saw profit booking. The Mid-Cap and Small-Cap stocks too failed to do an encore.

The BSE Sensex ended flat at 17,474 after touching a high of 17,590 and a low of 17,425. The Nifty ended flat at 5,221.

Equity markets in Asia ended mixed. The Nikkei in Japan was down 0.3%, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended flat. The Shanghai SE Composite was down 2.5% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong ended lower by 1.8%.

In Europe, stocks were trading in the red. The DAX in Germany was down 0.5% and the CAC 40 index in France was down 0.5%. The FTSE in the UK fell 0.6%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Realty index was the top loser, shedding 2%, followed by the Oil & Gas index that was down 1.3% and the BSE PSU index was down 1.2%. The BSE Mid-Cap index ended lower by 0.2% while BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.3%.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 17 stocks ended in the negative terrain and 12 ended in the green. JP Associates, ONGC, Sterlite, DLF and Wipro were among the top losers.

Bucking the negative trend were, Bharti Airtel, Maruti, Tata Steel and Hindalco were among the top gainers.

Wipro posted a net profit of Rs12.1bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs10.03bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs67.73bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 to Rs70.55bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.

The scrip ended lower by 1.8% to end at Rs725, it opened at Rs740 it touched an intra-day high of Rs753 and a low of Rs722 and recorded volumes of over 0.3mn shares on BSE.

Dr Reddys Laboratories posted a net loss attributable to the shareholders of the parent of (Rs2.33)bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Net Profit Rs1.59bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

Total Income has decreased from Rs18.55bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 to Rs17.67bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.

The scrip gained 2% to end at Rs1202, it opened at Rs1194 it touched an intra-day high of Rs1219 and a low of Rs1141 and recorded volumes of over 0.13mn shares on BSE.

HDFC posted a net profit after tax of Rs6.7bn up 24% for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs5.4bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. Total Income has decreased from Rs29.24bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 to Rs27.62bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.

Shares of HDFC gained by 0.5% to end at Rs2524. The scrip opened at Rs2534 it touched an intra-day high of Rs2553 and a low of Rs2495 and recorded volumes of over 0.13mn shares on BSE.

Lupin announced that its U.S. subsidiary, Lupin Pharmaceuticals, Inc (LPI) has received the tentative approval for the Company's Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for its Memantine Hydrochloride tablets, 5mg and 10mg from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA)

Lupin's Memantine HC1 tablets are AB-rated to Namenda® tablets indicated for the treatment of moderate to severe dementia of the Alzheime's type Namenda had annual sales of approximately $1.1 billion for the twelve months ended September 2009, based on IMS health sales data.

The scrip gained 0.5% to end at Rs1420, it opened at Rs1420 it touched an intra-day high of Rs1455 and a low of Rs1418 and recorded volumes of over 40,000 shares on BSE.

HDIL announced that it has posted a decline of 12% in net profit which stood at Rs1.62bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs1.84bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. While total income has increased from Rs3.4bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 to Rs4.35bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.

Shares of HDIL ended lower by 4% to end at Rs371. The scrip opened at Rs388 it touched an intra-day high of Rs388 and a low of Rs369 and recorded volumes of over 2.5mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Siemens gained by 3.5% to end at Rs668 after the Company’s consortium and Siemens AG, Germany has won an order from Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa), Qatar worth Rs29.56bn.

The contract value for the Company is approx Rs24.91 bn.

The scope of work for this turnkey project includes complete design, engineering, supply, erection, civil, testing and commissioning of 14 new substation, 5 modification substation and 5 cable diversions. The commissioning of the project is scheduled to be completed in April 2013.

Yes Bank Q3 net profit rose 18% at Rs1.26bn as against Rs1.06bn in the same period previous year. Shares of Yes Bank slipped 4% to end at Rs272. The scrip opened at Rs286 it touched an intra-day high of Rs288 and a low of Rs271 and recorded volumes of over 1mn shares on BSE.

Sun TV posted a net profit after taxes of Rs1.5bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs1.1bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs2.8bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 to Rs4.03bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.

The scrip shot up by over 10% to end at Rs408, it opened at Rs375 it touched an intra-day high of Rs421 and a low of Rs367 and recorded volumes of over 0.76mn shares on BSE.