History never looks like history when you are living through it.
Could we see history getting repeated today on the bourses? Will the market erase gains once again after an initial spurt? Well, many might be asking these questions as the market has turned topsy turvy of late. The market suddenly slipped on Tuesday after a higher start amid persistent selling by FIIs. Even the local funds, which have been countering the sudden reversal in FII flows, were rather circumspect. Broadly, the market remains in a consolidation mode without a clear bias. Volatility is here to stay, at least in the near term, amid external concerns and anxiety over the upcoming Budget.
Today, we expect a higher opening, buoyed by firm global markets. The Nifty will remain choppy and rangebound broadly between 4800-4900. Support is expected at 4770-4780 while resistance is likely to kick in at 4950-5000. There is a chance that the Nifty could go as low as 4600, especially if global cues deteriorate further. So, trade cautiously and invest carefully. Or stay on sidelines till the near-term uncertainty subsides.
The NTPC FPO opens today while Infinite Computers will make its debut.
DB Realty IPO closed yesterday with overall subscription at nearly 3 times. Aqua Logistics, which had to extend the date and pare the price band, also managed to pull through. There are concerns that the sudden reversal in the secondary market could spoil the party for those tapping the primary market. This includes the Government, which is looking to curb a spiraling fiscal deficit with a slew of PSU offers. Meanwhile, reports say that the FY10 fiscal deficit will be lower than the 6.8% of GDP estimated by the Finance Minister, thanks due to the change in the base year for calculating the GDP.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs4.55bn on a provisional basis while the local funds were net buyers of Rs419.3mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs3.97bn. As per SEBI figures, the FIIs were net sellers of Rs488mn in the cash segment on Monday. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs325mn in the cash segment on the same day.
After a two-week bloodletting, the US markets have started February on the upswing, but from a technical perspective an extended basing period is likely in order before last month's technical damage is repaired.
Separately, an analysis by Execution LLC using so-called Fibonacci numbers reveals that the Dow Jones Industrial Average may have peaked when it closed at 10,725 last month. The level, the highest since Sept. 2008, represented about 1.618 times the benchmark’s close of 6,626.94 on March 6, when the index sank to a 12-year low intraday.
US stocks rallied on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its second straight triple-digit gain. Investors welcomed better-than-expected corporate results, signs of stability in the housing sector and solid auto sales.
The Dow rose 111 points, or 1.1%, to 10,296.85. The S&P 500 index gained 14 points, or 1.3%, at 1,103.32. The Nasdaq Composite rose 19 points, or 0.9%, at 2,190.06.
Tuesday's gains were broad based, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks rising.
The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.
COMEX gold for April delivery rose $13.10 to settle at $1,117.40 an ounce.
US light crude oil for March delivery added $2.80 to settle at $77.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.64% from 3.65% late on Monday.
US stocks are rising this week after a two-week selloff that saw the S&P 500 lose almost 7%. Worries about President Obama's plan to limit trading at big banks, China's lending curbs and global debt worries all led to the selloff.
While the concerns haven't disappeared, investors nonetheless used the selloff as an opportunity to get back into stocks at a lower level. Fourth quarter earnings have been strong, but that was already anticipated by investors and is having little impact on the broad market.
Wall Street is focusing on the outlook for banks, China and the deficit, and not really paying attention to the earnings.
Major automakers, including Ford Motor, General Motors and Nissan all reported improved January sales. However, Toyota, which earlier this month recalled millions of cars due to a faulty gas pedal, saw a bigger-than-expected decline in January sales.
UPS reported lower quarterly revenue and earnings versus a year earlier, but the results topped analysts' expectations. The company also issued a 2010 earnings forecast of $2.70 to $3.05 per share, up from 2009. Analysts are expecting $2.81 per share. Shares were little changed.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton reported quarterly earnings of 56 cents per share in its fiscal first quarter, surprising analysts who thought it would report a loss. The company benefited from a big tax gain. The company also said new orders and completed sales rose significantly in the quarter. Shares gained almost 11% in active New York Stock Exchange trading.
Emerson Electric, a maker of automation systems for a broad range of companies, reported weaker quarterly sales and earnings that surged past forecasts. Shares gained 10%.
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose 1%, in line with expectations. The index fell 16.4% in the previous month.
The Senate Budget Committee held a hearing on the 2011 budget. In his testimony, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said a bipartisan effort is needed to trim a deficit the Obama White House mostly inherited from the Bush administration. He said the economy is recovering, but it will take time for the private sector to create new jobs.
Testifying at a Senate Banking Committee meeting, White House economic adviser and former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker sought to expand on Obama's call for greater limitations on bank trading.
Last week, Obama called for limiting commercial banks ability to make high-risk trades and stopping them from owning or investing in hedge funds.
Volcker said that limiting banks from engaging in certain high-risk trades would limit the number of institutions that are deemed to be too big to fail.
Across the Atlantic, European shares advanced for the third consecutive session, with miners offsetting sharp losses from oil giant BP, as worries about the economic backdrop faded. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index added 1% to close at 250.80.
The U.K. FTSE 100 index rose 0.7% to 5,283.31, the French CAC-40 index climbed 1.3% to 3,812.13 and the German DAX index advanced 1.0% to 5,709.66.
After staging a smart pull back in the last three trading sessions, bulls seemed to have run out of steam as all round selling once again hit the Indian bourses dragging the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex nearly 120 points and 350 points from its respective day’s high. Overnight gains in the US and the Asian markets, lifted the markets at open however, as the day progressed key indices were unable to keep up on intensified selling.
The Realty, Banking, PSU and the Metals stocks were among the major losers while the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks were under pressure, both the indices ended lower by 1% each.
The BSE Sensex slipped 192 points to end at 16,163 after touching a high of 16,525 and a low of 16,129. The Nifty lost 70 points to end at 4,830.
Equity markets in Asia ended in the green. The Nikkei in Japan was up 1.6%, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended higher by 1.8%.The Shanghai SE Composite ended lower by 0.3% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was up 0.2%.
In Europe, stocks were trading positive. The DAX in Germany was up 0.4% and the CAC 40 index in France was up 0.6%. The FTSE in the UK was up 0.3%.
Coming back to India, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in the red. The BSE Realty index was the top loser, shedding 2.5%,followed by the Banking index that was down 2% and the BSE PSU index was down1.7%. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.2% while BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.8%.
Among the 30-components of Sensex 17 ended in the negative terrain and 13 ended in the green. ICICI Bank, BHEL, DLF, Sun Pharma and SBI ended in the positive terrain.
Among the top gainers were, Hindustan Unilever, Wipro, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Bharti Airtel.
Outside the frontline indices, the big losers inthe broader market were Tulip Tele, PTC India, Madras Cem and REC. On the other hand, gainers included SpiceComm, Jain Irrigation, Mphasis and Exide Ind.
Siemens announced that it received an order worth Rs1bn from Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. to construct a new 765 / 400 kV substation at Meerut (Uttar Pradesh) and augmentation of substations at Mandola (Uttar Pradesh) and Baalabgarh (Haryana).
The Company will supply the high-end technology products such as Circuit breakers, current transformers, capacitor voltage transformers, disconnectors, surge arrestors and solutions like substation automation. The order will be commissioned in January 2011.
Shares of Siemens have declined by 1.5% to Rs648. The scrip opened at Rs665 it touched an intra-day high of Rs665 and a low of Rs644 and has recorded volumes of over 0.14mn shares on BSE.
Bajaj Auto total sales in January 2010 stood at 266,018 (including two and three wheelers) compared to 132,348 units sold in the same period last year. Bajaj's total two wheeler sales for January 2010 stood at 233,049 compared to 110,363 units sold in the same period last year.
Bajaj motorcycle sales more than doubled as it sold an all-time high 71,970 Pulsars. Discover brand sales continued to be strong at 92,035 units, thereby ensuring that 70% of all Bajaj motorcycles belong to its ‘bigger and sportier’ Pulsar and Discover brands.
Shares of Bajaj Auto slipped 2% to end at Rs1681. The scrip opened at Rs1748 it touched an intra-day high of Rs1750 and a low of Rs1675 and has recorded volumes of over 27,000 shares on BSE.
Spice Televentures Pvt. Ltd and Spice Mobiles announced that they have agreed to merge into a single entity. The respective Boards of Spice Televentures and Spice Mobiles Ltd. met to approve and recommend the merger of the two companies.
Shares of Spice Communication shot up by over 16% to end at Rs66.7. The scrip opened at Rs58.6 it touched an intra-day high of Rs68 and a low of Rs58 and has recorded volumes of over 2mn shares on BSE.
Jaiprakash Associates monthly despatch for January 2010 stood at 11.65 lacs MT compared to 7.27 lacs MT January 2009, Change:- 60% (Y-o-Y). Whereas for period (April to January) 2009-10 it was 86.17 lacs MT compared to period (April to January) 2008-09:- 61.75 lacs MT, change:- 40%.
Shares of JP Associates slipped 4% to end at Rs143. The scrip opened at Rs143 it touched an intra-day high of Rs143 and a low of Rs135 and recorded volumes of over 2.8mn shares on BSE.
ACC’s Cement production for January 2010 is 1.89mn tons compared to 1.87mn tons in January 2009. Whereas Cement despatches for January 2010 is 1.91mn tons compared to 1.89mn tons in the same period last year.
ACC ended flat at Rs871. The scrip opened at Rs882 it touched an intra-day high of Rs895 and a low of Rs867 and recorded volumes of over 0.12mn shares on BSE.
Tata Motors’ total sales (including exports) of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles in January 2010 were 65,478 vehicles, a growth of 77% over 36,931 vehicles sold in January 2009. The company’s domestic sales of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles for January 2010 were 62,202 nos., a 74 % growth over 35,704 nos. sold in January last year.
Shares of Tata Motors ended lower by 1.6% the scrip opened at Rs728 it touched an intra-day high of Rs736 and a low of Rs705 and has recorded volumes of over 0.9mn shares on BSE.