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Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Market seen extending Tuesday's losses on weak global cues


The market is likely to open lower amid a global rout in equities triggered by fears Europe's attempt to contain Greece's debt crisis would fail. Trading in S&P CNX Nifty index futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicate that the Nifty could fall 82.50 points at the opening bell. Oil and metal shares will be under selling pressure on setback in commodity prices on Tuesday.

Asian stocks slumped on Wednesday on rising fears that Greece's debt woes could spread to other countries. The key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, China and Singapore and South Korea fell by between 0.14% to 2.63%. Markets in South Korea and Japan were closed for holidays.

The risk premium on Greek, Portuguese and Spanish bonds soared overnight amid jitters about a possible Greek debt restructuring and worries over the fiscal health of other southern European countries.

US markets declined sharply on Tuesday, 4 May 2010, on fears Europe's attempt to contain Greece's debt crisis would fail. The Dow Jones industrial average slumped 225.06, or 2.02%, to 10,926.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 28.66, or 2.38%, to 1,173.60 and the Nasdaq Composite index was down 74.49, or 2.98%, to 2,424.25.

Back home, the fourth quarter corporate results announced so far have been fairly encouraging. The combined net profit of a total of 1080 companies rose 28% to Rs 38187 crore on 30.40% rise in sales to Rs 354453 crore in the quarter ended March 2010 over the quarter ended March 2009.

Alembic, Elder Pharma, JB Chemicals, Lupin, NIIT Technologies and United Breweries among others will announce their January-March 2010 quarter result today.

Tyre stocks may see action on reports firms are looking to hike product prices by up to 25% to offset rising input costs.

The Parliament on Tuesday passed the Union Budget 2010-11 with the Rajya Sabha approving the Finance Bill. Earlier, the bill was passed in Lok Sabha. The Finance Bill now requires Presidential assent before the provisions are notified. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in a debate on the Finance Bill remained firm on not rolling back increase in fuel prices.

A recent industry body report showed that business confidence in India improved on the back of economic recovery. The bi-annual Business Outlook Survey of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) showed that the Business Confidence Index (BCI) of the Indian industry increased by 1.5 points for the April-September 2010 period, compared to the past six months.

However, on the flip side, as per another survey a drop in new orders and output has resulted in the country's manufacturing expanding at a slower pace for the second month in a row. The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers' Index, based on a survey of 500 companies, fell to 57.2 in April 2010 from 57.8 in March 2010. A figure of 50 separates contraction from expansion.

The latest data showed infrastructure sector output jumped 7.2% in March 2010 from a year earlier, higher than an upwardly revised rise of 4.7% in February 2010.

The Indian Meteorological department (IMD) expects normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season this year. Rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-term average, the IMD said on 23 April 2010. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation. The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country's farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The quantum of rainfall in the crucial sowing month of July and distribution of rainfall during the monsoon season holds key.

The Reserve Bank of India expects India's economy to expand 8% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011) with an upward bias, assuming a normal monsoon this year and sustenance of good performance of the industrial and services sectors on the back of rising domestic and external demand.

The RBI at its annual policy review on 20 April 2010 said it will continue to monitor macroeconomic conditions, particularly the price situation closely and take further action as warranted. A 25 basis points hike in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) with effective from 24 April 2010 will suck out excess liquidity of Rs 12500 crore from the banking system.

In its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pegged India's GDP growth at 8.75% in calendar 2010 and 8.5% in calendar 2011. According to the IMF, domestic demand in India will strengthen as the labour market improves, and investment is expected to be boosted by strong corporate profitability, rising business confidence and favourable financing conditions.

The key benchmark indices slumped on Tuesday, extending losses for the second straight day, as world stocks fell. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 248.94 points or 1.43% to 17,137.14 and the S&P CNX Nifty fell 74.25 points or 1.42% to 5,148.50.

As per provisional figures on NSE, foreign funds sold shares worth Rs 29.68 crore and domestic funds offloaded shares worth Rs 438.08 crore on Tuesday.