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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Time to ponder!


"It is better to read a little and ponder a lot than to read a lot and ponder a little" – DP Burkitt.

There is a lot to ponder on the market. The surprising RIL-EIH deal, DTC Bill and Q1 GDP data are among the top stories. And then you have a renewed fall on Wall Street. Asian markets are weak, led by Japan and Taiwan. But China, Singapore and Hong Kong markets have not fallen as much. That augers well for India, and we could see some bounce after a lower opening.



GDP for the April-June period is expected to be robust and could prop up the sentiment. Various estimates point to a growth reading of around 8.8% for the quarter ended June. The fact that the DTC Bill has kept long-term capital gains tax Nil and slashed short-term capital gains tax may also give an added fillip to the bulls.

Auto and Cement sales will be in focus tomorrow, as will be Friday’s monthly US jobs data. Manufacturing PMI reports from across the globe will be released on Wednesday.

The overall undertone will still remain cautious with a slightly negative bias given the murky global picture. The Nifty could find support at ~5370 but don’t expect it to sprint to 5600 levels anytime soon.

Kingfisher Airlines could also be in the spotlight as its Board meets today to consider fund raising.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs1.84bn in the cash segment on Monday (provisionally), according to the NSE web site. Local funds were net buyers of Rs687.1mn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs16.17bn. FIIs were net sellers of Rs328mn in the cash segment on Friday.

US stocks tumbled anew on Monday, erasing quite a bit of Friday's advance, as investors turned jittery ahead of a slew of key economic reports later in the week, including the widely followed monthly jobs data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140.92 points, or 1.4%, to end at 10,009.73, near session lows.

All but one of the Dow's 30 components traded lower.

The Dow is currently off 4.4% for August, with only one trading session left in the month.

The S&P 500 Index declined 15.67 points, or 1.5%, to end at 1,048.92, with financials leading losses that included all 10 of the index's industry groups. The broad-market average is down 4.8% for August so far.

The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 33.66 points, or 1.6%, to 2,119.97. The technology-heavy index has fallen 6% in the month so far.

Market breadth was negative. For every stock on the rise, nearly four fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 818 million shares traded.

The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.

Crude oil futures for October delivery slipped 63 cents to $74.54 a barrel.

Gold for December delivery gained $1.30 to $1,239.20 an ounce.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.54% from 2.64% late on Friday.

US stocks opened lower as investors responded to a mixed report on American consumers, a pair of billion-dollar corporate deals and a move by the Bank of Japan to shore up its economy. But the selling gained momentum late in the session as traders turned cautious.

Investors will absorb a reading on consumer confidence before the market opens on Tuesday. Reports on home prices and regional manufacturing activity are also due in the morning. In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its most recent policy meeting.

Wall Street had rallied at the end of last week, to gain nearly 2% on Friday. But all three major indexes ended lower last week and are on track to post monthly declines.

A government report showed that personal income rose 0.2% in July, in line with expectations. The report said consumer spending outpaced income growth, rising 0.4% in July. Economists were expecting spending to rise 0.3% during the month, after a 0.1% rise the month before.

But personal savings, as a portion of disposable income, came in lower than the previous month.

The Bank of Japan announced steps at an emergency meeting to curb the yen's strength and lift the country's struggling economy. The central bank announced a new ¥10 trillion, or $117.15 billion, six-month loan program for financial institutions, in addition to the ¥20 trillion it has been offering in three-month loans.

The Japanese central bank also held its key-interest rate at 0.1%. But some analysts said the move was not aggressive enough to boost Japan's ailing economy.

Intel shares dropped 2.2% after the world's largest computer-chip manufacturer said it would pay about $1.4 billion to acquire Infineon Technologies AG's wireless unit. Intel had recently purchased security technology firm McAfee for $7.7 billion in cash on Aug. 19.

On Friday, Intel warned its third-quarter sales would fall short of its previous forecast.

3M Co. shares were off 1.7% after the company said it would buy Cogent biometric security company Cogent Systems for $10.50 per share in a deal valued at $943 million.

Hewlett-Packard Co. was the sole blue-chip gainer, up 1.5%, with shares of the technology titan bolstered by a share-repurchase plan amid its pursuit of a deal to acquire 3Par.

Genzyme Corp. rejected an $18.5 billion acquisition offer from Sanofi-Aventis. Genzyme has reportedly been snubbing Sanofi's advances for the past month, prompting the French firm to send a so-called 'bear hug' letter that is one stop short of a hostile takeover.

Shares of Sanofi fell about 1% and Genzyme's stock rallied 3.4%.

European stock benchmarks finished flat, as investors digested Genzyme's rejection of a buyout bid from Sanofi-Aventis as well as a stronger-than-expected gain in US consumer spending.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended virtually unmoved at 251.16.

Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan unveiled additional monetary-easing steps to bolster the country's anemic economic recovery and to curtail the runaway rise in the yen. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average ended up 1.8% yesterday.

In the euro area, there was evidence that the recovery remains on track. The economic sentiment indicator continued to improve in August, rising to 101.8, after a surge in July. Among the largest member states the UK registered the most significant gain.

Germany's DAX 30 index lost 0.7% to 5,912.41 and France's CAC 40 index fell 0.6% to 3,487.04.

Financial markets in the UK were shut on Monday for a public holiday.

Greece's ASE Composite index, however, gained 0.9% to 1,561.20.

Shares of Sanofi-Aventis rose after the drug maker publicly disclosed an unsolicited offer to buy US biotechnology company Genzyme for $18.5 billion, or $69 a share. As Genzyme rejected the approach, Sanofi vowed discipline in its pursuit of the deal.

Separately, Sanofi said that a new daily treatment for multiple sclerosis taken by mouth met its primary endpoint in a Phase III trial.

US chip giant Intel agreed to acquire the wireless business of Germany's Infineon Technologies AG for about $1.4 billion in cash. Shares of Infineon fell 3.7% in Frankfurt.

Spain's biggest lender Banco Santander said it has bought a portfolio of US car loans from HSBC Holdings for $4 billion. The deal, however, will cost Santander just $342 million as the bulk of the portfolio is already financed. Santander shares were flat in Madrid.