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Thursday, March 17, 2011

Gap-down as worries radiate


"There is a great difference between worry and concern. A worried person sees a problem, and a concerned person solves a problem."- Harold Stephens.

Be prepared for another gap-down start, as global risk aversion mounts amid a multitude of problems. The earthquake-Tsunami stricken Japan is facing a potential nuclear crisis even as efforts are underway to mitigate the damage at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex.



The yen has hit a new record high versus the dollar even as the BOJ pumped ¥5 trillion (US$63bn) into money markets. High-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar are down as investors opt for safety amid a global selloff in risky assets.

Meanwhile, the upheavals in the Middle East cannot be ignored either with the situation in Libya and Bahrain showing no signs of easing. Eurozone debt issues have also resurfaced lately and the US economic reports haven't been spectacular either.

On Wall Street, the Dow finished down 242 points. The S&P and the Nasdaq lost year-to-date gains. European markets continued to get pounded. Commodities - perceived as risky assets – are also being shunned. Nymex crude futures are trading below US$100 while the Brent contract is hovering around US$110. Precious metals are also in the red.

Back home, all eyes and ears are on the RBI mid-quarter review. The central bank is most likely to jack up rates by another 25 bps. But, it’s the global backdrop which is a major cause for concern. Indian markets will continue to dance and wince to the tempo of global cues.