Saturday, May 26, 2012
After eight years in power, the Congress-led coalition's pull seems to be diminishing. The result of the ABP News-Nielsen survey conducted on the eve of the UPA-II third anniversary has revealed this. The survey, conducted across 28 cities across the country in April-May 2012, reveals that the BJP would garner 28% of the votes if Lok Sabha elections are held now, while the Congress would manage only 20%. In fact, the BJP has turned out to be the most favoured party. In an interesting revelation, only 69% of those who voted for Congress during 2009 Lok Sabha elections are still intending to vote for it if Lok Sabha elections are held now. 31% are moving away from it and 12% of these respondents now intend to vote for the BJP. Whereas for BJP, 84% will stick with the party and only 2% are switching away from it to Congress. In 2009 elections, 28% of these respondents voted for Congress, while 27% voted for the BJP. But for the BJP, the dip of 8% in the Congress vote share is not a complete gain. The BJP is gaining only a marginal 1%. The remaining 7% dip in Congress vote share among these respondents is gain for regional parties. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had won 207 seats while BJP had got 116 seats. While 32% believed the government's performance was good or very good, a sizable 35% rated the performance as average. Significant 21% respondents said it was poor while 11% rated the performance as very poor. The performance of UPA government has been rated slightly below average with a mean score 2.95, which is lower than the mean score of 3.22 last year.
The Indian rupee recovered from session lows to end slightly higher against the US dollar as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened to defend the beleaguered domestic currency and exporters sold the greenback. The euro inched up from two-year lows against the dollar on Friday, partly helping the rupee recover. The rupee still closed down for an eight successive week, having hit seven straight record lows since May 16. Its latest was on Thursday when it fell as low as 56.39. This is the rupee's longest losing streak since the 11-week fall that culminated in October 2008. The rupee ended the day at 55.3750 per dollar after being as high as 55.2350 and as low as 56.0850. It opened at 56.00 as against the previous close of 55.6550. Its weekly low was 56.39 while its weekly high was 54.4350. It had closed at 54.39 last Friday. The RBI is likely to have sold dollars in spot markets via public sector banks to prevent the rupee from falling beyond the psychologically key level of 56 per dollar, according to reports. The RBI is also said to have intervened in the forward markets. Some banks were seen selling off their long dollar positions ahead of the weekend. Some selling from exporters who had missed Thursday's deadline to convert half of their foreign currency holdings into rupees was also cited by traders, according to reports. Besides selling of dollars by some public sector banks and exporters, a rebound in the local stocks and steps taken by the RBI helped the rupee recover from an all-time low on Thursday. The RBI will take the required steps, consistent with its policy, to curb swings in the rupee, RBI Governor D. Subbarao said yesterday. "We have taken action to improve the current flows, encourage inflows and also to curb speculation," Subbarao told reporters in Mussoorie. "We will do whatever is necessary, consistent with our policy."
After a long time, the main Indian stock indices managed to register weekly gains. The steep petrol price hike probably did the trick as it sparked off expectations of few more bold policy actions from the usually lethargic UPA II. But, it didn’t take much time for that perception to change as reports of a partial rollback in petrol prices started doing the rounds. Also, an EGoM scheduled for Friday to consider revision in other petroleum products was deferred amid stiff political backlash and public outrage. Whether UPA II manages to improve its scorecard in the remaining two years of its term is anybody’s guess. Things have not exactly been rosy for the Congress-led regime, and the biggest victim of the policy paralysis has been the rupee. Although, the local currency has recovered slightly in the past two sessions, it remains to be seen if it can sustain the pullback in the absence of progress on the policy front. Next week’s release of GDP data will be of interest to market participants amid fear of a deeper downturn.
The Indian markets rose marginally this week after falling for four straight weeks. The Sensex rose 0.40% and the Nifty gained 0.59% for the week ended May 25, 2012. Headline for the week: Oil cos' gains after Petrol hiked by Rs7.54 a litre Fire in your pocket: Petrol prices do it again How is Rupee’s freefall related to Newton’s law? RIL group abandons D4 gas India's economic growth likely to rise 7.5% Petrol prices may be cut next month: Oil cos
Eros International Media rose 1.3% to Rs 166.95 at 14:04 IST on BSE after the company said it will be releasing R Balki produced trilingual movie -- English Vinglish worldwide on 21 September 2012. The company made this announcement during trading hours today, 25 May 2012. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex was up 37.34 points or 0.23% to 16,259.64. On BSE, 26,000 shares were traded in the counter as against average daily volume of lakh 65,121 shares in the past one quarter. The stock hit a high of Rs 168.50 and a low of Rs 163.55 so far during the day. The stock had hit a record high of Rs 277 on 18 October 2011. The stock had hit a 52-week low of Rs 136.35 on 25 May 2011. The stock had underperformed the market over the past one month till 24 May 2012, falling 13.92% as compared to the Sensex's 5.72% fall. The scrip had also underperformed the market in the past one quarter, declining 11.47% as compared to the Sensex's 9.49% fall. The company has an equity capital of Rs 91.78 crore. Face value per share is Rs 10. Eros International Media said the movie English Vinglish is a trilingual movie shot in Hindi, Tamil and Telugu. Commenting on the development, Mr Sunil Lulla, Managing Director, Eros International Media said, "With English Vinglish, we are excited for Sridevi's return to acting and with Balki and Gauri at the helm, we believe there's a lot of anticipation around the film. Eros is very proud to associate with this project and present it to audiences worldwide". On a consolidated basis, Eros International Media's net profit rose 61.5% to Rs 69.09 crore on 46% growth in net sales to Rs 408.42 crore in Q3 December 2011 over Q3 December 2010. An entertainment firm, Eros International Media, operates on a vertically integrated studio model, controlling content as well as distribution and exploitation across all formats globally, including cinema, digital, home entertainment and television syndication.
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near-month May 2012 series to June 2012 series. The May 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 31 May 2012 The government will announce Q4 March 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, 31 May 2012. The Indian economy expanded 6.1% in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace of expansion in more than two years, hurt by slower growth in manufacturing output and a contraction in mining production. Automobile and cement shares will be in focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales volume data for May 2012 from Friday, 1 June 2012. HSBC's monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI), which indicates the health of the manufacturing sector, is likely to be released next week. The HSBC India PMI, compiled by Markit, rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March. The Q4 March 2012 earnings season is drawing towards a close. Investor focus is on the guidance provided by the management for the year ending March 2013 (FY 2013) to gauge the earnings outlook. Coal India announces FY 2012 consolidated results on Monday, 28 May 2012. Tata Motors, ONGC, Steel Authority of India and Power Grid Corporation of India announce FY 2012 results on Tuesday, 29 May 2012. Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries announces Q4 results on the same day. GAIL (India) and DLF unveil Q4 results on Wednesday, 30 May 2012. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Jaiprakash Associates unveil FY 2012 results on the same day.
The market managed to garner small gains after moving in a tight range in the week ended 25 May 2012. The market fell in three out five trading sessions in the week just gone by. Investors cheered the government's announcement on Wednesday to allow state oil companies to raise petrol prices, seeing it as a step taken forward towards fiscal consolidation. A timely arrival of monsoon rains over the Andaman Sea also helped lift sentiment. State-run oil marketing firms raised petrol prices by Rs 7.50 per litre to Rs 73 per litre effective midnight 24 May 2012. This is the steepest ever increase in petrol prices. The revision in petrol prices comes as the rupee hit an all-time low against the dollar on Wednesday, 23 May 2012, leading to jump in oil import bill for state-run oil refining-cum-marketing firms. The barometer index, BSE Sensex rose 65.07 points or 0.4% to 16,217.82. The 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty gained 28.95 points or 0.59% to 4920.40. The BSE mid-Cap index gained 0.61% and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 1.01%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. Key benchmark indices edged higher in volatile trade on Monday, 21 May 2012 as European stocks rose. The BSE Sensex advanced 30.51 points or 0.19% to settle at 16,183.26, its highest closing level since 15 May 2012.
Key benchmark indices settled marginally lower after intraday volatility. The market breadth was positive. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, was down 4.48 points or 0.03%, off 55.66 points from the day's high and up 99.47 points from the day's low. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) dropped. The Sensex has declined 1,100.99 points or 6.35% in May 2012 so far (till 25 May 2012). The Sensex has gained 762.90 points or 4.93% in calendar 2012 so far (till 25 May 2012). From a 52-week low of 15,135.86 on 20 December 2011, the Sensex has risen 762.90 points or 4.93%. From a 52-week high of 19,131.70 on 8 July 2011, the Sensex has lost 2,913.88 points or 15.23%. Coming back to today's trade, cigarette maker ITC was slightly lower as top line growth in Q4 March 2012 fell short of market expectations. Small-car maker Maruti Suzuki India declined for second running day on worries the latest steep hike in petrol prices may hit car sales. Reliance Infrastructure rose as the order book position of its EPC division remained strong. Adani group shares rose. Hindalco Industries rose after the company's US unit Novelis said that the management continues to expect a market recovery going forward and as a result expects FY 2013 adjusted EBITDA to be above FY 2012 level of $1.05 billion.